DocBauer

I was actually surprised a couple weeks ago when I looked up his 2023 numbers. While he wasn't having any sort of career season, all of his numbers were actually quite good while in Chicago. I had been under the misguided assumption his whole season had been a disaster. Nope. In 21 starts, 121 IP, he had a .379 ERA and 4.43 FIP, and 118 ERA+ with 9.7 K per 9 and a 1.223 WHIP. Had he continued on his 2023 path, and not been traded, I think we'd be hearing a lot of talk about how great he rebounded from a bad 2021 and who was going to give him a 4 or 5 year deal. Instead, we're debating about him as a surprise/steal signing. If his head is screwed on straight and the Twins see what there is to fix, and believe they have a real plan to get him back to his "normal" self, I'm on board with this idea. I'd just like to have a 2nd year option if things go well.

Great idea. And maybe I'm jumping the gun here. But I keep thinking about FA, and 2023, and I wonder about trade options for the Twins as I just don't think they will do a 5yr $125M deal, but I sure wish they would. MY OPINION, the market says the Twins have some bats to move, and some arms other teams like down the line. I wouldn't move Rodriguez unless I had a STUD or potential such for 3yrs. Petty bought Gray for 2! I keep thinking Polanco and Larnach for a Lopez kind of deal. Polanco is only 30yo and a STUD when healthy. Larnach still has ability and potential and that "when he gets here" possibly. Why do I keep thinking Seattle might be the best place to look?

11th round pick in 2018. Missed 2020, like most prospects. Had a couple small dings, but no major injuries that I can recall. While he didn't set the world on fire, I recall an article or interview about him a year or so ago...maybe by Seth?...where the hitting coach at Cedar Rapids, and I can't recall who that was...worked with him and he started to bloom in 2021. After a couple poor years, things started to click. His AVG wasn't great, but the OB was OK, and SLG started, with 21 Dbls and 19 HR, and the speed was there with 21/5 in attempts. 2022 was when he really began to blossom. He was better at AA, as you would expect, but spent about 2/3 of that season at AAA St Paul. His combined quad slash line for 2022 was .258/ .337/ .432/ .769. He had 46 XBH and he stole 40 bases out of 45 attempts. That caught the attention of the FO, which is why he wasn't added to the 40 man, but was invited to ST. Yes, I'm a fan and follower of this kid, lol. But I am for obvious reasons. You never know when the next good player in your system comes from. Unfortunately, Helman had a bad hamstring from day 1 in ST. So he had no shot to make the roster. THEN, when healthy and ready to go, he had a concussion that sat him out. THEN, he dislocated a shoulder. Even still, his AAA numbers, barely marginalized by a few lower level rehab games, has him at .302/ .358/ .544/ .911 combined between all levels, mostly at AAA. 20 XBH and 8 and 1 in SB in a total of 149 AB. To some degree or another, he can and has played ALL 7 positions besides catcher. (Believe he was a SS in college). He shows hit and OB and pop/power ability and SB and XB ability. Had he been healthy in 2023, I maintain my opinion he would have debuted with the Twins at some point and Luplow would have never been claimed because Helman would have been there already. DON'T mistake some fandom and belief in a kid for any kind of greatness. Helman only fits in to the CF equation due to depth since he can be solid anywhere. Basically, he's a RH version of Castro, which is pretty outstanding. And if Helman can be as good as Castro as super utility player, the Twins 12th and 13th spots are pretty well set going forward. Next, we should talk about Keirsey and Prato about some great and versatile depth going forward, right?

Kiermaier for CF based on early reports and "things that make sense". He's still a very good defensive OF, as good as Buxton, MAYBE a hair better than Taylor, though debatable. Rocco is familiar with Kiermaier, and he's probably a better "hitter" than Taylor. I'm fine with either player as a short term to back up Buxton HOPEFULLY healthy enough for 60-80 games and another couple dozen as a DH. But there's enough talent in the system that I don't see any way the Twins pay $20M+ for Bellinger. And $20M would go to a SP anyway. But you CAN'T approach 2024 just hoping Buxton is going to be great. You need another quality option, and either of these guys provide it. Castro can fill in, but is better used in his utility role, and Martin has made me a believer after his strong finish in '22, his strong AFL following, and a great '23. But let's give him a little time to settle in, shall we? I know there's a lot of doubters out there when I say this, but there's a couple potential darkhorses in the system that could really surprise in 2024. Helman was invited to ST last year, but was hurt. Spent half his season hurt from an initial hamstring in ST, to a concussion, and then a dislocated shoulder. But after his breakthrough 2022, he had a shot to help the Twins this past season. And his projected 2023 numbers, when healthy again, were as good or better. He's a RH Castro. And Keirsey is so under the radar as another late bloomer it's almost sad. He should have been at AAA earlier than he was, still has a lot to prove, but he's considered a legitimate CF defensively who can run, and has finally overcome some early injuries, like Helman, that he MIGHT be a mid season 4th OF who could fill in and be a semi-platoon CF with Martin if Buxton is hurt, and things wash out. I'm NOT bragging up these guys. They have to prove themselves still. But there is at least some potential there instead of running out a Refsnyder or Celestino there on an emergency basis. After that, the Twins could be looking to add a RH bat who is OK against RH pitching, but can rake against LH arms. Personally, I like Hunter Renfro for about 350-400 AB to cover both OF corners. He was pretty solid with the Angels, stunk after his DFA, but might be a perfect fit as a quasi full time RH bat off the bench that should come in around $8M I'd think. And there are different directions to go, of course. The Twins could invest in an even better OF if Kepler was moved. They could offer Rhys Hoskins a pretty big payday at 1B. And he's a nice rebound player. But the Twins are stuck in a weird but awkward place where there is so much talent and depth in place you don't want to REPLACE anyone, but you don't want to ignore possible upgrades as well. #1 Priority is a SP arm. And we can debate all day long about what that means and how to obtain it. But $ needs to be spent here in some capacity. Along with, possibly, trade capital as well. Where do the Twins spend $ other than a SP? #2 Priority is CF...unless you want to just turn it over to the kids and run with it and see what happens. Unless it's Kiemaier or Taylor, it's a waste and run with the kids. But I'd rather have the veteran for now. #3 Maybe, for the 1st time in a couple of years of need, they finally spend $5M or so on a solid RH OF who can make life miserable against LH arms and be OK against RH ones. Maybe they spend a bit more. And there are options. But MAYBE, they ONLY focus on the 1st TWO priorities and just open up competition for Martin, Helman, Williams, and some cheap milb signings. But yes, there IS some $ to be spent. If at all possible, to augment the roster and "tweak it". OMG...must have had a worse day at work than I thought. LOL. Even for ME this was a too long answer. LOL

Ervin Santana remains the largest, single contract ever handed out by the Twins at 4yrs and somewhere in the $40-45M range, as stated above. The current FO largest FA deal, I believe, remains Michael Pineda, signed on a "get well" deal with time and money following his rehab season. Something they might still consider for Mahle, and very much similar to what they've done with Paddack. They like to aquire rotation talent via trade; Maeda, Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Paddack, for promise, potential, and no albatross contract. They also like to develop young arms from within; Ober and Varland being the first real options there, though others have auditioned. Or a combination of trade and youth like Ryan. And I have a hard time arguing with most of their results and their payroll. So far, larger deals have been made for Donaldson, Cruz (though it wasn't a HUGE deal or long), and Correa. BUT, in 2018 and 2020 they took a serious shot at Darvish and Wheeler. IIRC, Darvish was 4yrs and around $20M, but they never got too far on Wheeler as he made his intentions to stay on the east coast quite clear very early, so what they were willing to offer is open to debate. They've been linked to a handful of other FA arms in the past, but again, where any interest and potential offers that might have been offered is up to conjecture. I DON'T think they would pass on a large FA contract if it made sense. IF we accept the proposed speculation of Rodriguez for around $19M-ish per, I don't think they would balk at that number. And they've been tied to him before, so they obviously like him, and probably see him perhaps raising his game a bit with their tutelage. Where they have issues, is not just $ per season, but the length of a deal. Their sweet spot is 3 and 4 years. They don't trust a 5 year deal or more, believing the total return won't equal the investment. And I'm not debating that, just stating facts. The whole "ownership is cheap" mantra is, or should be dismissed. The payroll has, generally, raised every year the current FO has been in charge. And they have pretty much ranked 17th in all of MLB just about every single year. Which is in keeping with general market size and proported revenue. There are tendencies for players, coaches/managers/ and FO/ownership in sports. The Twins have NOT cut spending in some time. And I don't believe they want to this offseason either. This team/organization is in great shape, and right about where you'd want it. Even if they kept payroll the same in 2024 as in 2023, they'd still have room to play with. And while I agree with other posters that the lack of a TV deal in place for next season, and beyond, comes as no surprise and the Twins have surely been working on this for some time now...the truth is, it's still a complete unknown unless there is something around the corner already agreed on that nobody knows about. I'm not saying the Twins ARE going to cut payroll. I remain 50% hopeful they've been planning ahead enough and are willing to "go above" their comfort level enough to keep status quo for now, and 50% they might cut at least a little. Hell, I might even be 60/40. So it's NOT poor speculation to think they might surprise us. Especially when so much of the total roster is young and under control. In the MLB fantasy world, I'm not unconvinced that my #1 option wouldn't be Nola. But since we are talking LH options, Snell scares me. He's produced OK but not great for his career save 2 outstanding seasons. But those 2 Cy Young type of seasons will drive up his market. I like Rodriguez better than Montgomery. I like a higher K rate and "getting it done" for a longer career, despite being slightly younger. And I can just see the Twins salivating over re-working his slider in to a sweeper, lowering his sinker, etc, and him taking a step forward. At 31yo, if he could be signed for 4-5yrs at an AVERAGE of $20-21M per, I'm not so sure the Twins wouldn't jump. You get him for 3-4 prime years, and could front load some of the deal while most of the lineup is still inexpensive. It's probably, unfortunately...no insult to the players themselves...going to be Maeda back, or a 2yr deal to Giolito on a rebound deal, maybe with incentives. But it's at least 50/50 the next rotation arm comes in some sort of trade. I do think a lot of people are under valuing Varland. A lot! But I absolutely want the Twins to go to camp with at least 6 SP.

Gray is only back on a 1 or 2yr deal. It's just a reality of the situation. Pham is a maybe. He wouldn't be expensive, and is a good hitter still. But I think there's guys out there very similar for the same cost, or less, that might fit the team structure better. But I'm at least interested. Ryu is a nice idea, and has been a really good pitcher when he's been healthy. But why him over Maeda? Kenta throws as hard or harder, is familiar to and with the team, and is a better fit. Merrifield for 2 or 3 years ago I'd be interested in. Not any longer. Turner if we wanted a full time DH who could still play a passable corner INF spot once in a while. Really, there's not much here.

I'd be fine with Maeda back on a solid 1yr deal, say $12-14M. His arm showed real life left in it. But he's not a top priority. He's the floor we need to add. I do believe the Twins will consider FA, which includes Gray, and they have offered long term, high dollar deals in the past, just never quite as long or as high as someone else. (Darvish and Wheeler as examples). And I'm not going to debate the merits of those attempts, just that they have, believe they will look again, it just has to make sense to them. I think a trade still makes the most sense, but Maeda is still a solid arm. Said before and say again now, I just don't think the payroll will allow them to keep both Farmer AND Polanco, though I'd like to see both. Over $6M on a 1yr for Farmer doesn't cripple the team. It's just an awful lot to spend on that roster spot/role. But if Polanco does get moved in part of a pitcher deal, Farmer definitely sticks as a back up at 3B/SS, and quasi platoon partner at 2B with Julien. And I've watched enough of Castro across the INF to have ZERO issues with him filling in there as well.

Works for me, though I can see an arguement for Taylor back as well. The Twins don't need to invest heavily in CF, at this time IMO, with Martin on the cusp. Not necessarily ready NOW, but certainly trending that way. There's a chance Keirsey is a solid LH part time option as well. (Defense wouldn't be his issue). Rodriguez should be at AA. There's a couple guys in the low minors besides Jenkins that be CF options. The Twins aren't deep there, but there's some promise. What they need righr now is another fill-in/quasi starter like they had last year.

What I really like about Wallner is his ability to recognize the zone, and to make adjustments. He's not some crazy free swinger up there. Much like fellow rookie Julien, he sits on pitches he doesn't like, or that he feels are out of the zone, and waits for something good to swing it, all the while content with a BB if they're going to give it to him. It's being that patient, looking for that good pitch, refusing to give in to bad pitches, taking those walks, that will lead to a number of K's. But it also leads to big hits, powerful hits, and a bunch of BB for and good OB ability. But as the OP alluded to, I've watched him make adjustments, game to game, even within a game, looking for something different, or literally hold up or change the plane of his swing to make solid contact with a pitch. He's got all the ability in the world to be productive and downright dangerous. There will be some bad days, and some streaky weeks, but he's going to be very good for this team for some time. And the defense looks vastly improved to me. He'll probably move to RF with that cannon in the near future, but he's just fine for 2023 in LF with Kepler in right.

Sorry, no way I protect him on the 40 man. And unable to hit at AA, I can't see anyone taking a shot on him at this point. 2020 was a very odd season for everyone, including the draft. Selecting late in the 1st round that year, little to nothing to use as a gauge in making selections except what you thought you knew the year before, I can't fault the Twins for a mammoth power plant who seemed to have plate discipline/OB ability and seemingly actual HIT potential. But it just wasn't a good choice. No blame. Just a bad pick in a strange draft.

That was a fun look back! Thanks! Fantastic that so many of that top 30 have already arrived, and mostly contributed, and with a bright future for most as well. And still a nice group just about ready to contribute. Wander Javier is the most disappointing name on that list. I think most believed he was going to be a star.

Stroman just opted out if the last year of his Cubs deal. He's leaving $21M on the table to look for a new deal. Still a very good pitcher, but has had a pair of injuries each of the last 2yrs to throw off his seasons. (Pun intended). Gets a ton of ground balls, has great control, not a big K arm. Believe he's going to be 33yo. Are we interested?

So Bonnes tossed out a somewhat confusing initial blueprint of "where the Twins are now if the season started to play tomorrow" post. It puts the roster at $117M. We keep talking about $150M as the equivalent to 2023, but I've seen "final" numbers between $150-159M. I agree with every comment you've made in regard to any potential TV deal, to some MLB contract bonuses yet coming, to the FO/ownership knowing ahead of time what was going to happen, to investing in the future based on a successful season. NOBODY in the FO is blind to what has happened, and what might happen, in regard to payroll and income. I DON'T believe the Twins will cut payroll. Ownership and the FO have been pretty aggressive at raising payroll and staying status quo in regard to where they sit as a market. And I do think some fans freak out a bit when they hear about a lost TV deal making massive repercussions in regard to payroll. But again, you lose $55M, but get $30Mback, we'll say for conversation on a new deal, you lose $12M based on a 52% of incoming profit. While I absolutely don't want the fans to absorb that cost in tickets or parking/dogs/beers, national ML contracts keep rising. And it's OK if add revenue keeps rising. I will mentally/emotionally PUKE if the Twins clutter the beauty of Target Field with the amount of advertising Houston has in their park, but there might be room for growth. It's also very possible that an investment in a winning and contending team means raising the % of incoming $ vs profit makes sense to grow, as has been stated. All of this to say I agree the WORST thing the Twins could do is NOT be proactive. And again, I don't think they resigned Buxton, didn't sign. Correa, didn't sign Lopez to an extension, without a thought for the future. The ONLY way I see a cut in payroll is moving on from Farmer and Polanco to save $ in a deal for an arm similar to the Gray and Lopez deals. And maybe we are looking at it wrong, maybe not. PERHAPS, THOSE moves MIGHT be to grab a couple of solid prospects, work in the young talent even more, and STILL add a front rotation arm. The FO has surprised us before, and might surprise us again. But what I'd really like to see is ONCE, bring in a quality arm that isn't a crazy deal and keep the talent on hand and have both a "go for it" mentality and keeping the status quo. Then work the edges.

I don't want to speak for John, but i took this as a "here's where we are TODAY if the season began tomorrow" blueprint. Now, he didn't state that, and I'm not sure it's even in the right OP/Forum place probably, (a small goof?), but I take it as a "jumping off point" to begin discussion about 2024.

IMO, Kepler is a lock for 2024 as the Twins are banking on his improvement last year. And to be clear, his change in whatever he did, wasn't a couple of weeks. And it wasn't a month. It was from pretty much June onward. That's not just a SSS. And there isn't some easy, ready replacement for him if they move on. If we accept, for a moment, that his change in approach is not going away, who do you get to replace what he did from approximately June on? If his $10M is gone, what FA is signed who's better and at what financial cost? And if we're talking trade, I'd think a corner OF spot has to come after a rotation addition, as well as figuring out CF insurance/depth. I'll be shocked if Kepler isn't in RF for 2024. A healthy Polanco is a solid 2B with a career .780 OPS. He's very good. And he has the ability to also play some 3B, SS, and I believe some 1B going forward, actually increasing his roster contributions and said flexibility. The fact that Julien has shown improvement at 2B, can also play 1B, and that Lee will PROBABLY be as good as Polanco offensively, if not better, DOESN'T diminish just how good Polanco is. I don't want to move Polanco. I want him for 2024, at least, because he's a damn fine ballplayer and producer and I'd rather have the "burden" of trying to fit "too many" talented INF's on a 26 man roster and in the lineup than not. But I do think there's a good chance it's time to, maybe, move on come 2025. BUT, it's also possible the time to move on is NOW. I can see Polanco moved this offseason with someone else, to bring back an arm. I keep thinking he and Larnach, for example, to Seattle for an arm, could be similar to the Lopez trade last year. From the Twins perspective, you play the improved Julien at 2B, work in the kept Farmer, and wait for Lee to be ready. Just saying, I love Polanco and don't want to lose him, but I can see a trade path that makes sense.

I don't disagree with this idea at all. And while the Twins are far more "plugged in" than we as fans are, I doubt they 100% aware of Gray's thoughts, reflections, and intent. Heck, Gray may be 100% sure of what he wants to do, or will do, over the next 3yrs, lol. I don't th8nk 3yrs at $62M is low, IMO, though others might disagree. I would offer him something very close, 1yr at $25M, second year around $22M, and some sort of player or incentive based, or mutual option for a 3rd year at $18. He gets almost double his career earnings over 3yrs. The Twins pay more upfront for 2024, and get a small savings each of the following 2yrs to mitigate other raises in payroll.

So $117M to begin with, if my math is correct. That leaves $33M to play with if the payroll stays at $150M and nobody off of the list above is traded. I've seen the final 2023 Twins payroll varying from $155-159M just depending on what site you look at. So if the 2024 payroll was a firm $150M, that would seem to be a slight cut from 2023. $33M is enough for a single, front line FA SP and then one decent position player/bat, but doubtful a star. Moving on from Farmer...though I like him a lot...frees up another $6.6M to help add a better position player. A trade for a SP probably involves at least 1 player on the list above, which frees up some $, and probably brings in a player costing less $ than a FA. The Twins don't have a huge stack of $ to work with, relatively speaking, but there is room to maneuver and add to and tweak the roster.

He accepts the QO for one reason and one reason only: He's spoken a lot at the end of the season about a new found joy in baseball as his kids are now a part of it. They've been able to watch him, and do well, and see him on a winning team in a playoff atmosphere. The Twins are poised to reach the post season again in 2024, and he fits in well and seems to enjoy himself here. So he might want to go year by year and have the luxury of the freedom to go where he wants, when he wants, and not be tied in to a city. Retirement isn't an issue as he could sign a 3year deal with someone and retire after the first year if he wants. He's going to get a solid offer and will almost certainly reject the QO. The question remains how much will the Twins offer, and will he be back or sign elsewhere.

Without doing a deep dive, I can't say anyone jumps out at me. I do still like the Twins keeping Alcala for $1M. That's not much of a gamble for a high velocity arm that might be all the way healthy again. And Farmer has value, to the Twins, or to someone else in a trade. But Stewart was basically one of these guys a year ago. So was Hoffman, who they should have kept. So there's value in there somewhere, just a question of who.

Pagan had 3 straight years of mediocre to awful. Low and medium leverage most of the time or not, the tweaks the Twins helped him make worked. At least for a year. As a result, he got some higher leverage opportunities in the second half and did OK. He made $3.5M in 2023. I'd be happy having him back for $4-4.5M in 2024, and make the assumption we're getting the same guy back. Does someone see his 2023 and decide he's worth a multi year $6+M per deal and just ignore his previous 3 seasons? If so, more power to them. The Twins won't do that and they shouldn't. But...and I can't believe I'm saying this...I'd like him back for somewhere in the $4 to $4.5M range.

Normally, my opinion is to keep a talented young arm in the rotation for as long as possible. You'd love every talented arm to have a 10yr career in the rotation. But a 5yr career of being really good is usually better a career as a bullpen arm, even a great one. The problem here is the lack of innings thrown previously as a pro. Not sure I ever really broke down how few IP he's had since being drafted. He's got a pretty long road to build up to 100+ innings. So I'm now leaning towards putting him straight to the pen. But I am wondering if using him as an opener and going 2-3 innings isn't the smart option. It might help him build strength, work on all 3 of his offerings, and if things go unexpectedly great, maybe he stays there. But I just think it's a good way to polish all of his pitches. I 100% agree he, Jax, and Duran could form an outstanding back end of the pen.

To be honest, I'm having a hard time with this list. I mean, how can I say no to Gray's age 34-36 seasons and then say yes to some longer deals for a different arm that will incorporate some of those same years? I love Gray, I think he's got tread on the tires still, knows how to pitch, is a great leader, and while his peripherals may never match 2023 again, he's just good. However, I do worry about age and injury and 2023 being the most starts and IP in 3+ years. I don't believe he's going to be AS GOOD as he was this past season, but for 3yrs and a little over $60M, he's near the top of my list. I have a soft spot for LH SP and sure wish the Twins had one. But despite a solid career with a couple great seasons, I'm just not able to trust Snell for that much and those years. He walks a ton, and except for 2018 and 2023, he's never thrown more than 129 innings. I like Montgomery and Rodriguez better. And when I look at both of their careers, back and forth, I don't see a lot to tip the scales either way. ERA and FIP and WHIP are so close. Rodriguez is only slightly better in BB/9 but Montgomery has the slightly better WHIP. But Rodriguez has a better K rate almost 2 more per 9 IP, and has been "doing it" at the ML level longer than Montgomery, even though he's about 6 months younger. BUT, Nola is my #1, hands down. He's durable, tosses a ton of IP, gets a ton of K's, and has a fine BB/9 and WHIP. His career FIP is below his very solid career ERA. His ERA, FWIW, jumped above 4 in 2021 and 2023. But overall, his peripherals were still excellent, a bit more so in '21. He won't turn 31yo until June of 2024. As long as the consistent 180-200 IP per season don't start to suddenly wear on him, I'm perfectly fine with a 5yr deal for him. $25M per season? No problem. If I'm the Twins...even with some questions about $ and TV contracts/payroll for 2024 and a spike in '25, I'd think about front loading the deal while a lot of my roster was still pretty young and inexpensive, and "buy down" his last couple of years. I MIGHT even bump a year or two another $M or two. If I could get him for 5yrs at $125M the day FA began, I'd be on his doorstep with a contract and pen in hand. I might even bring a couple pens, just in case, LOL. IMO, he's one of those guys who is often thought of as really good, but he's not GREAT. I mean, he's not a Scherzer or Verlander in their prime. And then you look a little closer at what he's done so far, and still only 30yrs old until June of '24, and he might have a couple even better seasons than he's had previously over the next 3yrs or so, and he might end up as a bargain at around $25M per. #1] Nola. Get the contract ready! #2] Rodriguez. ESPECIALLY if I could get him for $18M per on 5yrs. Again, why not front load a bit for the first few years if you can. #3] Gray. Keep what you have and what you know. He might not be as good as what he was in 2023, but he's had great success as a Twin, and you probably love what he gives you for at least the first 2 yrs. DARK HORSE OPTION: Never been a huge Giolito fan. But he's been very good for stretches. Still not yet 30yo and throwing OK numbers before trades and waivers had him bouncing around to a pair of teams to finish with nightmarish numbers to end his season, could he be a smart signing? Imagine control of his changeup again and the Twins doing what they did with Lopez and re-shaping his breaking pitch. Again, possible steal of a signing based on projections? I've listed my top 3. And for once, I wish the FO would make an actual FA investment that they feel good about and not go the trade route. I DON'T believe in building a staff via the FA route. It just never pays off in the end, final chapter, etc. But I do believe there is a collection of arms available this offseason that don't break the bank, or offer massive negative returns on 3-5yr deals that cripple a franchise. I'm still inclined to believe they will go the trade route, and I will refrain from speculation on such at this time. But the FO has surprised us previously, and may do so again. I just look at what's here and what's coming up, and I just really want them to hold on to that for right now and see how it develops and FOR ONCE, toss their cards in one ONE arm that they really believe in. If they're right, they can then focus on the lineup, the pen, extensions, and OTHER young arms being developed and coming up.

So the Twins, generally speaking, spend 50-54% "ish" of total revenues for their payroll. This is based on previously mentioned topics of the same, as well as other comments that the FO/ownership is spending "more than they always feel comfortable with". Hence a proposed variation of 50-54%. With the Twins losing out on the $55M from Bally, that means a drop in payroll revenue of approximately $28M. Now, if they sign a new deal with WHOEVER at this point, and that deal is for...oh...$30M per year, that is approximately $15M to put towards payroll. That's a loss of $13M. That shouldn't be devastating to the Twins. A small bump here or there from network deals, a small increase in additional advertisement dollars, should all be options to help offset that amount and keep the Twins at least close to where they were this season, even if they don't increase for 2024. Heck, moving on from Farmer covers half that $13M by itself. The Twins would not appear to be in a dangerous financial situation at this time. That being said, to echo other comments, they aren't in a desperate situation anywhere on the roster. The only real hole is ONE quality SP to add. It could be Gray, or someone similar. It's possible they re-sign Maeda, or someone of similar quality. And that should be the floor, Maeda, similar, at a minimum. Since it is the #1 priority, I could see it done via trade or FA signing/re-sign before New Years Eve. I mean, you know what you need, you have a good idea what's available, why not get your #1 priority taken care of? After that, I can easily see the FO sit back and wait until after the Jan 1st to address the rest. They have generally been rewarded for their patience when they do so. And I'm fine with that strategy, even if it's boring from a fan's perspective, LOL. But I have and will continue to advocate to move earlier on priority #1 before sitting back.

Actually, sorry I read this post. The Twins should trade the future for 1 or more HIGH PRICED FA to be, more or less. Hey, I'm OK to improve the team and WIN! But let's pause for a moment to reflect on what should be the primary 2024 Twins lineup. Young talent like Wallner, Lewis, Julien, and a healthy Kirilloff are a great start. All 4 were pretty damn good when given the chance, and AK was the team's best hitter for about 2 months before he dived and hurt his shoulder. Reports are he'll be fine. I admit to being wrong about Kepler. Always a fan, I was ready to move on after 3 poor seasons and a bad early 2023. And THEN, he suddenly seemed to adjust. The whole "shift thing" was NEVER the issue. It was always about him just smacking the hell out of the ball when he made contact! And a couple of weeks is one thing. But a half season plus is different. I think he finally realized how natural his ability is. And he can trust now more in his approach going forward. So NOTHING ever works out exactly as planned. But let's play out a little fantasy baseball at this point. LF, RF, 3B, SS, 1B, 2B combo, catcher combo, 20 HR plus. Assuming, for a moment, generall health. Wallner is easily a 20 HR batter if not 30. Kepler is easily 20+, especially if we can believe in his 2/3 season turn around. Lewis is Lewis at this point. AK was the Twins best overall hitter for 2 months, finally hitting his ceiling, for diving for a ball and messing up his shoulder. Reports are he'll be fine. GREAT! (NEVER do that again). A healthy Correa is a legit 20 HR hitter. And our catching platoon is a legitimate 20 HR platoon. And Julien is a 20 HR bat with a solid OB % and seemingly clutch opportunity. IIRC, the Twins were #2 in runs scored post break. And I believe they tied the Rangers for most AL HR. And their offense was lead by young talent and a few veterans. So they should suddenly do what? Make a massive signing for an offensive FA that will be gone? Trade top prospects for a 1yr bat who will cost $500M instead of keeping what they have? HELLO to the Anegls for ZERO products produced despite having probably the best two players in the world. [Heavy sigh] what did I say about regretting reading this post?. My bad! On to pizza and TV worth watching.

Eduardo Rodriguez asks you to hold his beer. Snell might be better. Too expensive for the Twins and their approach to FA arms. Montgomery and Rodriguez are so close in age and peripherals from what I've looked at. But Montgomery is riding a hot streak right now. Does that increase his value? Again, I think the Twins will look toward a trade for a younger arm with control for at least a year. And there are questions about the TV deal and such. BUT, IF they went the FA route, they supposedly inquired about a 3 team deal that moved Gray to someone, and brought Rodriguez back. Might have just been rumor. But IF, the FO was inclined to ACTUALLY break the Twins previous FA record for a FA SP signing, Rodriguez might be the choice. His career numbers are pretty solid, and his FIP is better than his career ERA. His K per 9 is about dead on with 9 per. His WHIP isn't great, but is solid. At 30yo, do they see something to unlock to take him to another level as a very good #3, with potential to be a #2? In other words, is he a Lopez kind of addition, but via FA rather than trade? I'm not sold on Sale for a variety of reasons. Ray does nothing for 2023. Freeland I don't trust at all. And Sale is going to be out of any Twins price range. Now, it's been a while since the Darvish and Wheeler days of signing speculation. And I still think the FO is going to concentrate on what's on hand, what's coming up, and probably making a trade for someone to replace Gray...assuming the market doesn't dip and thus make Gray affordable. So many IF's right now in regard to the TV deal, and the impending market. And the Twins aren't the only team to be done with Bally, or almost done. There might be ripple affects. Or, there might not be. I'd be very interested in someone like Rodriguez, if it's true the Twins like him and see something in him to raise the ceiling. He's LH, solid, 3yrs younger than Gray, averaged just shy of 6 IP per start last season, and might be a smart 3yr $60-66M sign. But then again, who knows, the Mets might go crazy and sign him for 6yrs at $25M per just because they can! It would be nice to have a quality LH in the rotation for various reasons. But I really just want the best and deepest rotation I can get, regardless of handedness. I just think Rodriguez is someone to keep an eye on. I just don't expect a major SP FA signing. I expect a trade. And then I expect a cheap FA signing on a milb deal for depth.