Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

DJL44

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,447

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    66

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Martin's defense can only get better because it would be really difficult for him to be worse than how awful he was last season. He's still unlikely to be as good as Laureano in the outfield. Laureano can catch the ball. That's why Laureano's worst full season in the majors is 2 WAR better than Martin was last season.
  2. DJL44
    Twins pitchers were terrible at holding runners. They didn't even try.
  3. DJL44
    You're not arguing with me. You're arguing with the Statcast baserunning metrics. Typically 10 runs = 1 WAR. The metrics say the difference between the best and worst baserunners is 0.5 WAR. That seems low to me, and it is lower than other baserunning calculators (including other calculators from Statcast) which see a 1 -2 WAR difference between worst and best over the length of a season. The standard deviation of this metric is really low. Most of value in baserunning is not running into extra outs. Getting caught stealing or trying to take the extra base is one of the biggest killers of rallies. Slow and fast players are regressed to the mean by the fact that you only have to be fast enough to make it to the next base and in most situations the player can't be fast enough to take two bases instead of one. Plus, with as much scoring by HR as there is in modern MLB the main thing that matters is being on base.
  4. DJL44
    When your worst baserunners are costing the team 2 runs and your best is adding 3 runs over the course of an entire season it's pretty easy to dismiss baserunning as a way to add value to the team. If a slow player hits 2 dingers more than a fast player, the slower player is worth more.
  5. DJL44
    It is quite difficult to be a major league GM and avoid dealing with Scott Boras.
  6. DJL44
    Festa, Morris, Matthews, Headrick, Raya, Adams, Lewis, MacLeod, Ynoa, Varland, Canterino, Nowlin, Ohl and Randy Dobnak aren't enough to cover the innings at AAA?
  7. DJL44
    I hope he's a relief conversion project. He's a bad AAA starter. They have plenty of options for starting pitchers in AAA.
  8. DJL44
    I don't really want Royce for 10 years. I want him for 6-7, until age 31-32. Then give him the QO and get the draft pick. A 6 year, $72M offer might get an interesting counteroffer. The Twins bet $36M on those two free agent years that might be zero value if he's retired due to health reasons and Royce risks $36M if fair market value is actually $72M. Both sides are in 50/50.
  9. DJL44
    If you wait until he proves it there is no way in hell you get him to sign for 8 years, $70M. I doubt he would sign that contract right now. If he can play 140 games on defense and hit like we have seen, then you are looking at an Austin Riley 10 year $212M contract if you want to lock him up. Wait until he's proven it and he's too expensive to sign.
  10. DJL44
    You think the new general manager is completely incompetent and doesn't know how to use a phone?
  11. DJL44
    Waiting until his results improve and match his stuff would require overpaying. His value is down due to last season which means they could buy low.
  12. DJL44
    I would rather give them qualifying offers when they're 32 and get the draft picks.
  13. DJL44
    If he proves that this season his price will certainly go up. He'll also be a year closer to free agency which makes him less likely to take a contract extension. Waiting is just as risky.
  14. DJL44
    Ryan, Ober and Lopez are already under contract until their early 30s. The Twins can't pay retail prices for starting pitchers in their 30s. My list would be Jeffers Woods-Richardson Lewis Duran
  15. DJL44
    Celebratory dances are fun. People like to go to soccer games and watch people kick a ball back and forth because they can do their chants and sing songs.
  16. DJL44
    If you believe in buying low, this is the time to buy. If they could get him to sign that KeBryan Hayes contract I think they would do very well in the long run.
  17. DJL44
    Are they talking to a team in South Korea? Dobnak doesn't belong in MLB and he probably isn't good enough to play in Japan.
  18. DJL44
    Lee, Julien and Martin haven't earned everyday playing time with their performance. They should start the season in AAA.
  19. DJL44
    Plus Ronny Henriquez. It would be prudent to trade out some of their bullpen depth along with Paddack for offense. If they add a 1B then I expect Miranda to fill 3B. They really want to add an outfielder so only two of Julien, Helman, Keirsey, Lee and Martin make the 26-man roster.
  20. DJL44
    They're looking to make a trade. I think that they will lose some bullpen depth in that trade.
  21. DJL44
    And how many times a contender has ADDED him at the deadline
  22. DJL44
    The 1988 Twins won 91 games, so he couldn't have made it that much worse. Herr got replaced by Lombardozzi who famously got into a fight with Dan Gladden.
  23. DJL44
    Whether a clubhouse can survive some jerks is mostly up to the manager. Many people with elite athletic skills are lacking in social skills. People coddle elite athletes and rarely hold them accountable for their behavior.
  24. DJL44
    Yes. There are MLE translation charts for AAA to MLB performance. The general drop in performance is 100-200 points compared to what the player is doing in AAA. The players you have noted were quite young in AAA and still improving which is why their numbers in MLB are comparable or better to what they did in AAA. However, if you only look at what they did at AAA in the same season as when they were promoted to MLB you will see, on average, a dropoff of 150 points of OPS depending on league and ballpark context. League Equivalencies | Sabermetrics Library Michael Helman is 28 years old, the age when baseball players are at their peak performance at the plate. His actual AAA performance minus 150 points should be a good estimate for his MLB performance. If his performance is better, then he got better. He's equally likely to get better as Amed Rosario. Helman is relevant because the current projection has him getting 300+ PAs on the 26-man roster. That's who they would be replacing by signing a veteran like Rosario. I think both options are a bad bet for a team with playoff aspirations.
  25. DJL44
    Helman has 847 plate appearances in AAA that translate to a 650 OPS in MLB and he's not a gold-glove candidate on defense.
×
×
  • Create New...