DJL44
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Everything posted by DJL44
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Playing Julien, Lee, Helman, Keirsey, Prato, Martin, McCusker is just giving up. That's a AAA team.
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On the current depth chart Miranda is 1B, Larnach is LF, Julien is DH. Lee, Martin and Helman are your bench. Canha can be a better DH than Julien and a better corner OF bat than Martin. Personally, I think they can do better than Canha, but they're not wrong that he makes the team better.
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There are only three young guys who have upside higher than 1 WAR player - Rodriguez, Keaschall and Lee. Everyone else above AA has -0.5 to 1 WAR upside.
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I think Keirsey and Rodriguez can both cover CF and they're available in AAA whenever Buxton hits the IL. Buy a bat.
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I also don't want a sub-par veteran (though Margot is probably still a better bet than McCusker). I want a decent veteran baseball player. Give me Donovan Solano, but an outfielder. The Twins have a boatload of playing time to offer a free agent acquisition and if not, they have potential trade chits. There is no reason to throw away 2025 and start rebuilding. If they add a couple veterans to the roster there will still be PLENTY of playing time available for whoever earns it in AAA.
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Who has rated Keirsey's defense as elite? Please cite sources. The scouting reports I have seen believe his CF defense would be adequate but not close to elite. He's a downgrade on Buxton in the field and Buxton isn't a gold-glover anymore.
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That sounds like a great strategy for a rebuilding team and a great way for this team to miss the playoffs.
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Great. No scholarships for Martin, Helman, Lee, Julien and Keirsey.
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But there are only 16 position players on the 40 man roster and one is a catcher. There is no way in hell they get through the season with just 16 position players. Buxton is going to get hurt. They're one additional injury away from calling up Anthony Prato or Carson McCusker. A retread MLB vet is probably going to be better than Prato or McCusker.
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Martin had a .469 OBP in St. Paul. Keirsey had a .368 OBP at the same level. If he wants more opportunities than Martin, he needs to hit better than Martin. This team doesn't pick players based on their glove.
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That batting line is heard of quite often in AAA. It's not that impressive. I also think you're overrating Keirsey's glove in CF. He's an adequate defensive CF.
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- austin hays
- byron buxton
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Who is the next man up? McCusker? I like Keirsey as AAA depth but putting him on the 26-man roster with little behind him in the minors could kill their season. They played 10 different people in the outfield last season. Buxton will miss 60-80 games. Kepler, Kirilloff and Margot are gone and they played 291 games between them. Castro is needed more in the infield with Farmer gone. There are 350-400 games at OF/DH left to cover between Rodriguez, Martin, Keirsey Jr and Helman. It would be great to find someone better than Martin to give 120 of those games. Emmanuel Rodriguez can play CF. If they're going to give anyone new 300+ at-bats this season I hope it's Rodriguez. I would like to have another OF on the roster so they don't have to depend on Rodriguez, Helman or Keirsey. I would probably call them up to the majors in that order. Buxton is injured often enough that Keirsey should still get 150-200 plate appearances.
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https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml xRA_def = (BIP_pitcher)/(BIP_team) * TeamDefensiveRunsSaved Then they adjust for park factors and finally adjust to make starters look worse than relievers.
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We used to care about batting average, then Branch Rickey figured out something better. He published it in 1954 in LIFE magazine. Goodby to Some Old Baseball Ideas Was Branch Rickey the Father of Sabermetrics? « The Captain's Blog
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There is an adjustment for team defense. This can distort the end result if you have a flyball pitcher pitching in front of a team with the best infield defense, for example.
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Here's a good preview article Rule 5 Draft Preview: Which Prospects Will Be Selected?
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No, the HR robbing clip didn't require that much range. That ball was in the air a long time and he was waiting to time his jump. The spread out diving catch happened because he was a tick late running in on the ball. The best CF make that catch without diving. It isn't a slump. His range is in the 5th percentile (95% of outfielders are better) because his jump is 2 feet below average. He is a great athlete who reacts WAY too late. I think that he can improve, but it will take 1000 reps (or more). I don't know how much he can improve because he's already 25 years old and has been a professional outfielder for several seasons. It might be an undiagnosed vision issue. Austin Martin Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com
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Kyle Higashioka contract at $6.75M per season sets the market rate for Christian Vazquez.
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I would love Keirsey and Helman to be the AAA depth we know they'll need to make it through the season. They're perfect to bounce back and forth between MLB and AAA as needed.
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One of my least favorite musical genres
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This is blernsball, not baseball.
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Is that what we're hoping for? Slightly better than Manny Margot? I want an outfielder that can help them win games.
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The typical drop from AAA to the majors is 150-200 points of OPS.
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Austin Martin has the athletic tools to play outfield. The first clip actually shows you why he's been so bad. See how long it takes him to react to the ball after it was hit? Martin had the worst reaction time to the ball after it is hit in all of MLB. It destroys his range despite his speed. He's also very inconsistent and misplayed several outs into hits and singles into doubles. There were several plays where it was a total clown show.
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Is anyone interested in FA Josh Bell for 1B?
DJL44 replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
He's a downgrade on just using Miranda
