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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Neither Keirsey nor Helman has produced in AAA like they belong in MLB. An 800 OPS in AAA is not impressive.
  2. DJL44
    That would mean they got more power out of his bat. 250 HR in 2000 games is 1 every 8 games. 1 every 12 games is only 166 HR. That's the difference between Ken Singleton and Claudell Washington.
  3. DJL44
    I think he'll get 300-450 PAs even if he starts in AAA. They are going to start him in AAA to gain the extra year of team control.
  4. DJL44
    I would line them up: LF - Larnach, CF - Buxton, RF - Wallner, AAA - Rodriguez, 2B - Castro, DNP-CD - Martin I would like another outfielder to give Emmanuel Rodriguez at least a month in AAA, move Castro to 2B and keep Austin Martin off the 26-man roster. If Martin is on the roster, then they have room for another outfielder. Ramon Laureano, though he wasn't mentioned in the article, is a better option than Austin Martin. They could also make a trade to get themselves an outfielder. I agree that the three guys mentioned in this article are all bad fits. Hays is the best fit, but he will find someone willing to pay more than the Twins have available.
  5. DJL44
    Jenkins is 1 every 12 games at the moment. This is why the Twins coaches ABSOLUTELY need to keep working with him to get more HR power out of his swing. It is hard to find a good comp for a LF with a long career with that little power - Ken Griffey Sr played 50 years ago. Melky Cabrera?
  6. DJL44
    There are a thousand players who can make that same claim. I agree that if Jenkins is as good as we all hope, the Twins will be forced to trade him in his 5th season with the team, if not sooner.
  7. DJL44
    Keaschall is quite likely to suck if sent directly to MLB in 2025. We already know Martin sucks. Eeles can't play CF. They need to get another outfielder who is BETTER than those guys. I agree that two of the three guys listed in this article also suck. That doesn't mean they should go into the season depending on Double-A talent. Nearly every outfielder in MLB made one really good play last season. Making one good play does not make a player a good defender.
  8. DJL44
    I did NOT say Bobby Bonds would be a disappointing outcome, no matter how many other people try to put those words into my mouth. Bob Allison would be at the low end of expectations for the #2 prospect in baseball. It would be disappointing compared to what people perceive as his ceiling. They should consider trading him now if that is the most likely future outcome since his future value is rated higher than that at this moment.
  9. DJL44
    He's the #2 ranked prospect in MLB. If he turns out to be another Max Kepler that will be quite disappointing. That means they should trade him now while his perceived value is still high.
  10. DJL44
    They will need Rodriguez, Keirsey AND another OF bat to get through 2025. Right now, the DH slot is wide open and the 4th outfielder is AAA caliber.
  11. DJL44
    Carlos Mendoza is the Mets manager
  12. DJL44
    They're both marginal CF options behind Buxton. Neither one seems to have the bat of an MLB OF.
  13. DJL44
    Mike Trout hits HR. The Twins coaches will have to get a LOT more power out of Jenkins to get him to Mike Trout level performance.
  14. DJL44
    No matter how much you want to put those words in my mouth that is not what happened. I said it would be disappointing if Walker Jenkins had a 124 OPS+ career over 15 years in LF like Bob Allison. Bob Allison was a pretty good player, but he wasn't a Hall of Famer. A big part of the discussion above was regarding Jenkins not developing power. Bobby Bonds hit 330 HR and Allison hit 256. Both are probably optimistic if Jenkins doesn't learn how to drive the ball. Hal McRae is a more likely outcome, possibly worse. I think it would be wonderful if Jenkins could develop power like Bobby Bonds. I think it would be wonderful if he could be a plus defensive RF like Bobby Bonds.
  15. DJL44

    Frankie Montas

    DJL44 commented on Doctor Gast's blog entry in Doctor Gast's Blog

    You're going to think that about a lot of pitchers this offseason.
  16. DJL44
    And fWAR is completely irrelevant to the AVG/OBP/SLG numbers with runners on base that were quoted in the article. Defense is a big part of why the run prevention with runners on base was so bad. The premise of the article is "the pitchers were bad in the clutch". I'm saying the defense was really bad in the clutch and you have to take out that contribution before you can determine how good the pitchers were with runners on base. fWAR does that to some extent - it shows the Twins pitchers were still striking out batters while avoiding walks and HR even when there were runners on base. When the batters put the ball in play with runners on their batting average was a LOT higher, but the ISO OBP wasn't because the pitchers were still avoiding walks. This analysis really needs to go one level deeper to determine how much of the poor run prevention with runners on base is bad defense and how much of it is the pitchers giving up more hard contact.
  17. DJL44
    D) Ramon Laureano
  18. DJL44
    None of those numbers are fWAR and defense matters for AVG/OBP/SLG This is relevant to run scoring (and they are bad at it) but not AVG/OBP/SLG.
  19. DJL44
    Because batted balls are assigned to the defense, not the pitcher
  20. DJL44
    Their ground-ball percentage was low, but it's still 40% of the batted balls. The Twins were in last place with 16 fewer double plays than the 29th place team. The only team with worse Total Zone fielding stats was the White Sox. They had a bad season on defense.
  21. DJL44
    I mentioned Bob Allison as a comp. You responded wondering why I thought Bobby Bonds was a bad player. That response makes no sense in regards to my original comment. We're talking about two different players.
  22. DJL44
    It doesn't ignore what happened. It assigns the defense more credit for balls in play and the pitcher more credit for HR, walks and strikeouts. The Twins were last in the league turning double plays - only 75 compared to the league leading 164 of the Colorado Rockies. That's huge. 50 double plays fewer than league average means the up-the-middle defense was poor. Julien and Martin were the main culprits there but Castro and Farmer weren't good either. They need a full season out of Correa and a new partner at 2B who can play the position well. Does anyone have confidence that Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee will be great at turning two? FWIW - the Rockies 2B Brendan Rodgers is freely available after being non-tendered and expected to sign for a modest contract. He has led the league in double plays turned in two different seasons. Pitching out of the stretch vs the windup was mentioned above. That could be a coaching issue and should be analyzed in more detail. They should also look at the effectiveness of their defensive shifts with runners on base.
  23. DJL44
    Bob Allison, not Bobby Bonds. Bobby Bonds was much better.
  24. DJL44
    Why do you think he can't be more than a back of the rotation starter? The whole idea of taking the risk is to get another top of the rotation arm like Lopez, Ober and Ryan. I agree, there isn't much to be gained if Jax is another Chris Paddack.
  25. DJL44
    It may work more often now because MLB asks less of starters than at any time in the past. 85-100 pitches is perfectly acceptable now but it wouldn't have been in 1990.
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