Major League Ready

I highlighted your comment about developing SPs because so many of the plans / comments here require landing top free agent SPs which is a real longshot. Of course, we could trade for pitching now like the Padres did last year. These deals often fail to produce the desired result and the team can suffer for years as a result. How much better would we look now if we had Ynoa and Gil and those players were traded for mediocre players. We all know trading for impact SPs cost big. The point here is that Twins should construct a plan focused on developing a pitching staff from within. This does not preclude getting a very good SP in free agency this year but any plan should be focused on developing pitching. You hit another nail on the head in regard to our lacking a major league SS in our system. I was really hoping they would get a great SS prospect when they traded Berrios. I am still hoping they can trade Arraez for a SS prospect that is blocked. Of course, any other package they could put together for a top notch SS could work too.

I think there is one question that will determine how the Twins approach the off-season… How good does the FO view their odds of contending next year and what would it take to make those odds realistic. Also, does contend mean be in it with the Whitesox or does it mean they are equal grounds with Houston / Boston / NY / Tampa. They would need to acquire two top of the rotation SPs, one of the top SSs, and a back of the bullpen arm. That would cost around $90M in free agency. Of course, they could trade prospects for one of those top arms and get it down to $60M. It would mean trading away the prospects they would hope to get them to contention in 2023-24. Anything less would not get them the type of SP they need. So, the question is really will they trade away the future for a shot at 2022-23. They are not spending $90M and I sure hope they would not trade away the future for a shot at 2022 that would still have relatively low odds. They still would not have a line-up that compares to Houston / Boston / NY / Chicago. Houston has $32M from Grienke coming off this year so look for them to add a top SP. There are a lot of available impact free agents this year. Boston and NY are going to spend and they have resources we can’t compete with. 2022 will not be a 100 loss season if they don’t fill every hole like some here like to suggest. They played 500 ball the last couple months. One good SP and a good SS along with getting Kirilloff back and this is a pretty good team. I would like to see them get Chris Taylor to play SS and he can take another position if Lewis proves himself. That’s a good team without mortgaging the future. This path eventually has Larnach, Miranda and probably Martin joining the team for a good part of 2022. Of course, we have several pitchers that could (should) be ready at some point during the year. I Would bet they take the path that gives them a good product in 2022 given that path probably gets better (contention) in 2023/24.

I see where you are coming from and the hold and see approach is just fine and could well be the best approach. My thought is to trade him whenever the opportunity presents itself.. Donaldson could become untradeable if he continues to be hampered with injuries or simply declines. That hurts in 2023 and it also has a modest cost ($6M) in 2024.

I really like Donaldson and I was liked that they signed him even with the risk associated with signing a a contract where he will turn 37 at the end of his last season. However, I think you could make a case that keeping Donaldson is short sighted. IMO, Miranda with a season under his belt will be better in 2023 than Donaldson. Even if they are equal players in 2023 and assuming they can get someone to take two-thirds of his salary, Miranda and $14M invested elsewhere makes the team better in 2023. Of course, they could they keep Donaldson and bring Miranda up. Miranda at 2nd is not better than Polanco at 2B. Playing either Miranda or Donaldson at 1B does not make the team better and I seriously doubt playing him in the OF makes us better. Our roster construction sucked last year which was part of the problem. I don't think it is at all probable to make a couple additions to what we have an be a real contender. It's not viable through free agency and I would not trade future capital for the hope of contending in 2022. I don't believe the Twins will either and we will hear from the disgruntled fans here. What happened with San Diego / Philly and the Mets. Fans will insist you have to go big or go home. We will forget that everyone cursed Tampa for trading Snell and letting Morton go. We will forget that the Giants made tweaks, invested little and made minor trade investments and we will ignore that Boston, even with their revenue, signed a couple of modest priced free agents. Yes, they are getting big production out of Hernandez but he signed a moderate 2 year deal. Boston's total net payroll change last year was peanuts.

There are high expectations here. The rest of the world does not have high expectations for the 2022 MN Twins. Free agent RPs are not going to change that outlook. Signing a top end SP and a good SS will have some influence on the Twins outlook with the national media.

Hard to argue of these points. All quite plausible. There has been some chatter here about Jax to the BP because of how effective he has been the first time through the lineup. Let’s hope we see that to start 2022. Allow me to add a couple more. Perhaps the most impactful development would be if the Twins produced several quality SPs from the current deep crop of prospects outside of Ryan/Ober. Of course, this is a really generic statement that would be true of any team but the Twins have a bunch of guys that could be very good major league SPs. The influence would go beyond the obvious impact starting pitching makes. It would also free up dollars the Twins have been investing in SPs and redirect it to other needs or extending our core. Our future is going to look very bright if just two of Duran / Balazovic / Winder / Canterino / Enlow / Sands and SWR get established at the ML level this year. Jose Miranda could also have a huge impact. I like Donaldson but his influence is short term. Miranda could be an anchor in that lineup for the next decade. Buxton / Polanco / Kirilloff and Miranda would be formidable at the top of the line-up.

I can't say I have looked over the data well enough to have a strong opinion. What I have reviewed gave me the impression the spent consistent with revenue. I have also looked at Forbes revenue and profit rankings whenever they were available. I don't know how precise they are in these estimates but the Twins have generally been ranked quite low in profit. I think fans tend to be swayed by bias. For example, you wrote that 12 times out of 24 they were below their revenue rank. I take they were also above their revenue rank 12 times. Sounds like they are above their ranks as much as they are below so that would indicate to me they spend pretty consistent with their revenue rank. It does not make sense to me to expect they would ever spend as much as teams with a $70-300M revenue advantage. I also don't get all that wound up about this because best case scenario a more aggressive spending strategy is a $10-12M swing which equate to 1-2 wins via free agent spending. Things like trading away Gil and Ynoa or drafting Cavaco instead of Corbin Carroll or Bryson Stott is what makes a difference. Being able to develop ML players matters. A $10M difference in payroll is just not all that impactful.

The Twins revenue is roughly 10-15% less then the league average. Therefore, my expectation is they would spend roughly 10-15% less then the average team. In other words, be around 18th on average. You are comparing spending without regard to revenue. It's no wonder you think the problem is they are cheap. Why would you ever gauge their willingness to spend by comparing them to teams with up to double their revenue. I would guess you know someone that makes twice as much as you. Do you spend as much on housing / vehicles as them. Is this because you are cheap or do they simply have more disposable income?

I think this is low on our list of problems. For starters, the only significant change I see in position players coming here from free agency or trade is a SS. That players is likely going to play only SS unless it's Chris Taylor and playing him in the OF on the occasion Gordon or maybe even Palacios gets a start is definitely not a problem. Our first problem with utility players is that Arraez is below average everywhere with perhaps the exception of 2B. Then, we have an issue with covering CF whenever Buxton is out. They should send Gordon to play CF in winter ball or at least give him a lot of reps in spring training. Also, Celestino will probably fill that role at some point in 2022. Astudillo probably will not be on the team. Take the hit on Donaldson and bring up Miranda. 3B, SS, and 2B have everyday players. Trade Arraez for pitching or a SS that is being blocked elsewhere. I don't see any problem with using Sano and Kirilloff at 1B. Start with Kirilloff and Kepler in the corners. We have plenty of options of a RH 4th OFer. Move Kirillorr to 1B if Sano were to be traded either this off-season or at the deadline.

Good question. They are probably going to get outbid for the top guys which leaves us with Galvis or Iglesis which are not great alternatives. BTW ... I think Taylor is going to get paid. Teams value flexibility and he is a better version of Marwin Gonzales. Without looking to deep I think there are some SS prospects who are blocked. This is where I would look to deal Arraez or even Rogers. It's a bit of a long shot but that could be a good solution if it lined up.

This is difficult to assess. It appears to me it's a conscious plan with Tampa. Do these other teams have low IPs from their starters because they are simply bad? Has Tampa found a market inefficiency in SPs that don't excel when expected to go 6 plus but are good the 1st couple times through the order. Have they adapted strategies and pitching sequences to succeed with this type of pitcher? Jax appears to be this type of SP to me. I think he would do better in the BP or in a stacking concept.

I liked the Simmons signing. He has been a phenomenal defender throughout his career. He is still good and fun to watch defensively. So, what I was trying to say is get someone good on both sides of the ball. I don't care to watch 400+ ABS from Simmons next year. What I would like to see them do is sign Chris Taylor. He is very capable of playing other positions if Lewis proves worthy of taking that spot.

The Rays have been among the lowest IP from SPs and they have 100 wins in the AL East. They have been using this model very successfully for a while now. I prefer SPs that can give you 7 but there is more than one way to succeed.

I should have known you did not mean to trade both Polanco and Garver. I still don’t see trading either of them as a get better fast strategy. Teams interested in Polanco or Garver are contenders or teams looking for a missing piece to get them in contention. Trading away assets that would help us get in contention is one step forward and one step back. Anything is possible but I don’t see this happening. They would have to find a team that was contending but so weak at 2B that they would trade away pitching. That’s just not likely. The teams who would want Polanco are going to trade future capital. The Cubs got one ML player (Davies) in the Darvish deal but he was a replacement level player. The best prospects they got in that trade were 18 years old. The Rays, in typical Ray’s fashion, got some immediate value for Snell in Francisco Mejia. Nice role player but not an impact player. They got Patino who already made his debut this season but he certainly was not a path to getting better immediately. Trading Garver or Polanco are strategies to rebuild and the players they would get back probably won’t impact the team for 2-3 years. There are always exceptions. We could find other Joe Ryan type deals (assuming he continues to perform) but the premise of trading to get better immediately assumes established MLB players so that’s not what we are talking about here. I don’t see any scenario where getting back into contention nest year that does not require absolutely everything to go nearly perfectly. In other words, any such scenario is low probability so I would not leverage the future in any strategy for 2022. I would also prioritize some transitions in 2022. Donaldson to Miranda. Larnach and Martin transitioned in if they show they are ready and maybe even Lewis. Most importantly, get ML experience for our SP prospects that show they are ready in 2022. There are a few strategies that provide a high probability of getting better quickly. Contending? Probably not. A good product and entertaining baseball, yes. 1) There is a lot of free agent pitching available this year. Get some. 2) Replacing Simmons with someone who can hit and play D. 3) Decline Colome’s option and get a couple reliable free agent RPs 4) Don’t give Cave any ABs

Their first draft was 2017 so they have had 4 drafts. We also lost an entire season. It's ironic you suggest someone is incompetent with a review that contains an inaccurate account of the terms nor do you account for an extremely unusual circumstance of a missed season. I guess if you just want to complain a reasonable account of the facts is not necessary.

Cruz had a wRC+ of 96 the 2nd half of the season. One year guys can help keep it interesting but we need to be looking for players that can contribute to sustained success. The long-term success of this team is tied to pitching prospects. Eliminating ABs for Simmons and Cave will sure help the entertainment value of this club for me. Watching those ABs was painful. Sign Michael Taylor. He could play SS or OF.

Trading two of your best position players is not a good formula for getting better fast if "fast" means next year. Trading Polanco and Garver would be moves to rebuild for 2-4 years from now. They would need to trade top prospects to get better next year. Trading Lewis / Miranda / Martin or top pitching prospects is the most likely trade formula for getting better next year. I seriously doubt they trade any of those position players. We are very lean in up the middle position players. Lewis and Martin are the only two up the middle position player prospects with a high ceiling on the horizon. It could be argued that Miranda is our best position player prospect. He is a very logical transition from Donaldson and he has some position flexibility. I just don't see them moving any of these players. Of course, we could trade pitching prospects. We finally have enough prospective pitching to believe they can build a rotation from within. Do they want to give that up now? It would be one thing if we were a player or two away from seriously contending but that is not the case. Any team can get better fast if they are willing to trade future wins for immediate wins. However, there is often a premium associated with getting better immediately. I don't see them paying that premium now. They can put a good product on the field next year without leveraging the future. Get Kirilloff and Rogers back, add a good SS and even one "Stroman / Rodon" type SP and the team that was a game above 500 after the deadline is a pretty darn good team.

Trading Arraez or Polanco is at the top of my list. I Have always believed in Polanco and would hate to see him go. I would trade him if it's a really big haul. If that kind of trade is not available, I would trade Arraez. Really hate the idea of trading Garver. So, same thought as Polanco. It has to be a haul. Will the Universal DH give Sano reasonable trade value? He does impact games. I have never been a much a Sano supporter but I don't think they should move him for the sake of moving him. He could bring value at the deadline. Kepler is a sell low candidate too so why trade him now. I would have Donaldson on this list. We will likely be a better team with him in 2022. However, I think we are better in 2023 with Miranda in his 2nd year and the salary savings invest elsewhere. Donaldson will be 37 yrs / 4 months at the start of the 2023 season. Rodgers and/or Duffy should be available if the return is right but that opportunity will exist at the dead line too.

I am arguing their strategies should be developed on likelihood of success as opposed to the need to be in place on opening day next year. I significant percentage of the absolute clusters I have seen in client's organizations was a product of them insisting on something be in a specific timeframe. What they ended up doing was making the situation worse. Many fans have a very difficult time accepting any approach that is not focused on contending immediately. I would not be too quick to make any big moves until they figure out if they are going to get Buxton signed. Then, can they get a top FA pitcher to come here. I would not be trading any major pieces until these two things had some clarity. The other point I was making is that a "Padres approach" can have significant cost for several years. I do not agree the Padre's approach was all that great. Snell is just not that good. Musgrove played well but two years of control is a short window and anytime you trade for a pitcher as old as Darvish you are taking considerable risk. They bet 10 prospects on this approach. Right now that wisdom is very questionable.

Compete or contend? They were quite competitive the last couple months of the season. The next question does contending mean being close enough to have a shot at the AL central or wild card or does it mean being a team like the Astros or Rays that have a very good shot at going deep in the playoffs. They have a decent shot at keeping it interesting. Rebuilding to the point of dominance this off-season not so much. Any decent team with good prospects can leverage the future to get better now. Last year everyone praised the Padres for being aggressive. They had an extremely deep farm system and they spent a great deal of future capital to get better quickly. They traded away 10 prospects and spent $38M. Where are they now? They have one more year of Musgrove. Snell just is not that good and Tampa knew it. Darvish will turn 36 toward the end of next season and he was quite bad the last couple months of 2021. Should we really want them to push in their chips at this moment? Can they put a good product on the field without leveraging the future?

Yes, this could really change the outlook for next season. If Alcala can be an effective starter and we add one really good free agent to go along with Ober / Ryan / Alcala, all of the sudden the pitching situation looks quite different. This is a really intriguing idea.

I agree with those who say we are a little short on depth in position players. We could end up looking quite strong a year from now but we really need Miranda / Lewis and Martin to reach their projections. There are plenty of other guys who can average MLB players and you need those guys too. There is always the chance guys like Walner / Severino / Cabbage / Sabato could also continue to improve their stock. It sure would be nice to have another Miranda like breakout player next year. If you fill a rotation from within, it's easier to fill position players from free agency and we will be in a financial position to do so if we build a rotation from prospects. We can also afford to extend Buxton who is all the more important given our lack of depth at CF and position players in general.

The Royals have made the playoffs twice in the past 35 years!

You reload to make a playoff run, right? So, I don’t understand the logic of you would trade Arraez to make a playoff run, not to reload? It also does not make sense to hold on to him for 3B. Donaldson is better offensively and defensively. Our top position player prospect (Miranda) is also ready and he can play 3B. Arraez is the least preferable option of the three at 3B. We are a better team with Donaldson at 3B. We are probably better with Miranda at 3B plus whatever we get for Arraez plus whatever we save on Donaldson going into pitching. Maybe not in 2022 but by 2023 I would prefer to have Miranda at 3B (and 10+M saved on Donaldson applied to pitching or a Buxton extension) over a 37 y/o Donaldson.

Arraez is the only one of the three that would bring back a meaningful piece. He is also somewhat redundant. The only position he plays reasonably well is 2B and we have a great 2B and we have multiple prospects that can play 2B. I would like to see them sign Taylor at SS. He can move to 3B or 2B if Lewis or someone else proves to be better at SS. Lewis / Miranda / Taylor and Gordon would provide a really flexible group of IFers for the next several years. Trade Arraez for pitching. Trade Donaldson by the trade deadline next year. Use the money for pitching. Sign Buxton and add Martin next year. That's a good team for the next several years and it should be even further improved with the depth of pitching prospects that are close.