Major League Ready

I am just really happy to see Kirilloff hitting and not just hitting but making a mockery of AAA pitching. He can be a key player for this team for next several years and I was worried about his future so it's a relief to see him thriving. He will be back soon. They will probably have to decide between sending Miranda or Larnach down or I would think they could find a trade partner for Gordon.

They might as well eat his salary because they are going to pay it one way or another.

Losing Lewis made losing Correa this year a big problem. I actually saw a reasonable path before Lewis was lost. Trading Correa obviously puts a big dent in 2022. For the next few years, there are other paths to take that would likely produce a better team. They will have 70M to spend if Correa opts out. Sign Willson Contreras which would be a huge upgrade at catcher. Sign Rodon who has an opt out or Musgrove or Taillon. Then, spend $10-15M on another BP piece to go with Duran and hopefully Canterino. Start the year with Polacios at SS and bring in Lewis when he is ready. Those additions plus a more experienced Ryan / Winder / Smeltzer / Duran / Jax / Kirilloff / Miranda / Larnach / Celestino and you have a considerably better team.

I heard an interview on satellite radio with a guy from Fangraphs I believe. He specifically singled out Baldelli's handling of the pitching staff and gave him high praise. The fact that you would do it differently is far from proof he is doing it wrong. BTW ... Pay attention to what the people around him including the players say about him. Every person he has worked with sings his praises. His players, coaches, and people outside the organization respect him and speak very highly of his baseball IQ and how he handles players in general. Fans thinking they know how to manage or coach better than the managers and coaches is almost a tradition in professional sports.

Seems like a very plausible scenario because it's not hard to see them moving Bundy once the others are healthy. Plus, piggy-backing two guys that you don't want pitching a bunch of innings is a pretty good solution. It was JA Happ that they sent to St. Louis and wouldn't it be something if Evan Sisk turned out to be useful BP piece for several years. That would be quite a trade and a similar outcome from trading Bundy would be just great.

By investing the money where it produces equal or higher value. There are many examples of an elite player leaving and the team getting better. Washington won the WS the year after Harper left, for example, The Cardinals had 4 great years after Pujlos left. The Royals and James Shields. Boston after Betts was traded and of course the year after trading Berrios. I don't think they trade him but to come to any conclusion without knowing the many variables mentioned earlier and knowing the return is not exactly rational.

They can't just add him without sending out a player. Someone needs to go. They have a very nice problem ... Too many starting caliber infielders without considering that Steer is close. They will need to trade someone eventually but that takes time to come together. In the meanwhile, AAA gets used as an extended bench to cover injuries.

Who does he replace? Arraez / Miranda at 1B, Kepler in RF or Larnach in LF? What's the gain?

Atlanta invested nothing. So, to suggest they follow Atlanta's lead is not at all consistent with trading major prospect capital for a front of the rotation SP. LA who was much better than the twins traded major prospect capital. The Rays invested Joe Ryan. Was that a good investment?

What position are you going to move him to? We have two 3B prospects (Miranda / Steer) with equivalent offensive potential and CES fits at 3B as well if he is able to cut down the errors. We have all kinds of 2B. Moving him to the OF diminishes the value of his bat. Plus Larnach has been better than we hoped for defensively. So, where would you suggest they play him? Do you trade Kepler, play Larnach is right and Lewis in LF?

Good point! The way I see it, the Twins were going to have to take back salary or eat some of Donaldson's salary. Getting Sanchez was a lot better option than eating salary. We should keep in mind that Donaldson had an option for 2024 at $16M or an $8M buyout. So, The Twins were very likely going to eat $8M down the road anyway and get nothing not to mention they have an extra $21M to spend next year.

You make a good point about the preseason odds. However, 28:1 is not exactly a true contender. It's a relative longshot which is consistent with how many here have portrayed them. Would you bet your paycheck (just one) one a 28:1 bet?

I think most people were ready to dump Sano a long time ago and Rooker has not been high on anyone's list for even longer. Which Hick's are you talking about?

Have to agree the question can't be answered without this context and I would add that one other key consideration needs to be known and that's the return. What if the Yankees would trade Volpe? It's not going to happen. I am just saying it seems silly to answer this question without knowing all of the things you listed and most importantly ... What's the trade offer?

We had a crazy number of players with the opportunity to step up and lock down a roster spot for the next few years. Kirilloff / Larnach / Miranda / Celestino / Lewis and Jeffers as position players. Ryan / Winder / Smeltzer / Duran / Jax / Cano / Moran and Megill among pitchers. Several of them are looking very good and we have two-thirds of a season for Jeffers and others to step up.

Good point. Obviously, they have a chance if they make the playoffs but "contender" has a connotation of having a reasonably good chance to win. Fox Sports has their odds of winning the WS at: 81:1. In other words, a $10 bet wins $810. Those are not the kind of odds that denote a contender to me. They probably make the playoffs but they are not a legit contender. Fox Sports WS Odds

Here is a list of the biggest contracts signed by the teams in the bottom half of revenue. Nine of the 15 teams have signed a $150M plus deal with the largest being Stanton for 13/325. The highest annual salary paid by Miami was $14.5M and they traded the year his salary was to increase to $25M. The Dbacks traded Greinke after 3 years and they had to sub 500 seasons while they had him. The Mariners were able to unload the horrible decision to sign Cano to a contract for 10/240. Thatb was fortunate because it would be an anchor for them now. Votto has been good but the Reds have been horrible with the exception of the first year of the extension. Yehlich has been mediocre since signing his deal. A couple were so disastrous (Davis / Cabrera) they could not be moved. None of these $150M+ deals resulting in success for the team, at least not for the teams that originally signed them. Orioles: Chris Davis – 7 years, $161MM. Signed 1-21-16. Athletics: Eric Chavez – 6 years, $66MM. Signed 3-18-04. Brewers: Christian Yelich – 7 years, $188.5MM. Signed 3-6-2020. Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke – 6 years, $206.5MM. Signed 12-8-15. Indians: Edwin Encarnacion – 3 years, $60MM. Signed 1-7-17. Mariners: Robinson Cano – 10 years, $240MM. Signed 12-12-13. Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton – 13 years, $325MM. Signed 11-18-14. Pirates: Jason Kendall – 6 years, $60MM. Signed 11-18-00. Rays: Evan Longoria – 6 years, $100MM ( plus three club options for another $30MM). Signed 11-26-12. Reds: Joey Votto – 10 years, $225MM. Signed 4-2-12. Rockies: Nolan Arenado – 7 years, $234MM. Signed 2-26-19. Royals: Alex Gordon – 4 years, $72MM. Signed 1-6-16. Tigers: Miguel Cabrera – 8 years, $248MM. Signed 3-31-14. Twins: Joe Mauer – 8 years, $184MM. Signed 3-21-10. White Sox: Yasmani Grandal – 4 years, $73MM. Signed 11-21-19.

They actually made two bets. The short-term bet (current year) was that they could find a replacement for Garver. I see it as they neither gained nor lost anything this year. It's really a long-term question at this point. They have the rest of the year and next off-season to improve the catcher position in 2023 and beyond. They could sign a free agent to be the primary catcher and use Jeffers as a back-up. Do we have a guy in the system? Is Hamilton's breakout sustainable? Alex Isola has a 900 OPS at AA. Could he get promoted to AAA for the 2nd half of the season and audition for the job on the big club. They also will be in a position to go sign a FA catcher next year. I see it as the most obvious opportunity to improve the team where position players are concerned.

They are entering a stretch in their schedule of a bunch of weaker teams, and they are getting Gray and Ryan back. Ober should also be back in about a week. Obviously, they need to stay healthy but if they can go 19-12 over this stretch, they would only need to be 1 win above 500 the rest of the way to win 90. So many variables Does the pitching staff stay healthy? Which version of Buxton do we get? Will the central get tougher as the White Sox get healthy and will the Guardians who have been much better lately contribute to making the central tougher the rest of the year. Does Maeda get back soon enough to be a key addition down the stretch? Any other additions to the BP? Lots of variables but I am going with 91 wins which is 2-4 better than I estimated at the start of the year

One team in the bottom half of revenue has won the WS since 2003 and that's the Royals who have one 90 win season. They are far from a model of success. The other two winning in the period I have addressed are the marlins in 2003 and the Dbacks in 2001. They are also not examples of how to run a MLB franchise. The facts are very clear that teams in the bottom half of revenue are FAR less likely to win the WS so again you make a misguided argument. I don't understand the second paragraph at all given what I was doing was illustrating that Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa have had much more sucess than the other teams in the bottom half of revenue. Even when presented with very clear facts you somehow manage to totally misconstrue the point. You can continue to put your head in the sand where the realities of revenue are concerned if you like but assessing success and/or strategy without the context of revenue is really simplistic thinking. Win records for teams in the top half of revenue are below. Only 5 teams have produced more 90 win seasons and those teams are the highest revenue teams. Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa have achieved 90 win seasons more often than three-quarters of the league despite their revenue deficit. Yankees 15 Red Sox 13 Cardinals 12 Dodgers 11 Braves 10 Giants 8 Angels 7 Astros 6 Rangers 6 Cubs 5 Nationals 5 Phillies 4 Mets 3 Blue Jays 2

It makes absolutely no sense to judge long-term strategy in the context of "they've not exactly lit it up lately". Fans are obsessively short-sighted which is why they are at odds with the FO over these strategies. The facts are listed below measured in number of 90 win seasons since 2000. Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa have been by far the most successful. The history is very telling if you are willing to accept the facts which is not exactly consistent with fanaticism. Oakland 10 Indians 9 Rays 8 Twins 6 Dbacks 4 Brewers 4 Mariners 4 Reds 3 Orioles 2 Pirates 2 Rockies 1 Marlins 1 Padres 1 Royals 1

Who would be the pick if you got to make it?

Tampa / Oakland and Cleveland have valued assets in the way you describe. They happen to be by far the most successful among small and mid-market franchises over the past 20 years so I would say you are on to something. Trading multiple upper tier prospects for a year and a half control is a good way to be better for a short period and bad for a long period.

For me the takeaway is we have an opportunity that should be encouraging to us all. There is not enough room for all those infielders. Hopefully, they can use a couple of those assets to improve our pitching or perhaps catching. However, someone pointed out that we our catching prospects are better than advertised here. The numbers should we have some catchers that can hit. I just have not seen them and therefore have little knowledge of their ability to stick behind the plate. I would not be shocked if it were Polanco because they could plug in Arraez immediately and then work Miranda / Steer into the infield over time. I could also see selling relatively high on Kepler especially if he has a great 6 weeks between now and the deadline. The combination of Buxton / Larnach / Celestino / Garlick and eventually Wallner would be just fine. Although, I am not sure what to make of Wallner. For the last month he has a 333 average with an OPS of 1100 but he strikes out 1/3 of the time. I would bet there the FO does some buying and selling at the deadline. Something is going to happen!!!

As LA Vikes Fan pointed out, none of these guys makes the Twins a true contender this year. Losing Larnach and Lewis would completely negate the gain for 23/24 and then a huge setback for 25-27. That's why they will keep all of these guys that are crucial to sustained success. They easily have the payroll room to land Musgrove / Taillon or Rodon next year. Syndergaard or Nola as consolation prizes if they can't land Musgrove / Taillon or Rodon. Then, they have the equivalent or better SP plus these key young players. I would much prefer them to use some of the next tier prospects to land a couple RPs with more than 1 year of control. That would probably have more value this year and retain the young players we need to reach the next level. Those young players also enable the team to spend on free agents and add without subtracting.