Major League Ready

Totally agree on the 7 on the first line. The last 3 are all borderline for me so I don't see much of any issue. However, they could trade an INF among the group of Gordon / Steer / Kirilloff / Arraez and/or trade one of Wallner / Celestino. Of course, they could also trade any of the 7 going on the 40 man at the end of the year or Kepler / Polanco. I just don't see protecting any of those last 3 prospects necessitating the trade of any of these players. This FO is opportunistic and the decision on whom to trade could be a product of the right opportunity more than wanting to trade any specific players.

Miranda / CES & Steer all have roughly the same Milb OPS. Miranda's K rate was around 15% the other two around 25%. Steer is the best defender and more versatile defender. Of course, Miranda and Steer are proven at the AAA level and CES is earlier in the process and only reached high A.

Steer had 8 HRs in 156 ABs at AA and 8 HRs in 79 ABs at AAA. He was raking at AA and his OPS is 100 pts higher in AAA. I guess he was ready for the promotion.

Have to agree. Montas or Castillo will require a very good SP prospect. What do you think they would ask? Winder or Ryan plus Steer or SWR plus Lewis? Duran / Steer?

Very well put. I would hate to lose Arraez but Steer would make a great replacement IF the return was right. Steer is no Wander Franco but the Rays moving Adames is somewhat parallel. It's a great problem. By that I mean having Kirilloff / Polanco / Lewis and Miranda as our future infield with Steer waiting in the wings and Arraez and Gordon on the bench. Gordon might seem like the logical choice to be moved. However, that skillset fits well on this team and the others have trade value that could be impactful. The point being trading one of Miranda / Kirilloff / Ster or Arraez will have more value than keeping them all if the right trade presents itself. BTW ... The Rays got a SP and a RP that combined are definitely more valuable than Adames. They were both already at the MLB level and both have really stepped up this year.

There are a bunch of guys coming off the 40 or could be taken off. Pitchers in alphabetical order. Archer’s option is a mutual option so he will be gone. Bundy is gone. Cano is TBD. Duffey is gone. Henriquez can be taken off unless he really steps up the last half of the season. Maeda could be traded. Romero is likely gone. Smith is gone. Strotman can be taken off. Position Players – Godoy could be cut. Sánchez is gone. Correa will opt out. Nick Gordon could be traded. Sanó is gone. Urshela could be traded at the deadline and replaced by Miranda or Steer. Contreras can be taken off. That’s 16 to be removed and there are 48 on the 40 with 8 on the IL which leaves room for 8 at this moment. It’s a good bet a couple will be traded at the deadline. However, I don't see them trading any top 10 prospects unless the team looks like they can legitimately contend with the Yankees / Astros and Blue Jays. They will follow Atlanta's example and add it they can do it by taking on salary and not giving up much in prospects.

Sounds about right. I would add that those tier 4 guys could and hopefully will jump up a tier or two. Let's hope Alcala gets healthy soon. It will look a lot better if Alcala gets back soon and one or two of those tier 4 guys steps up.

It was a very short while ago that many were calling for Lewis and/or Larnach to be traded. I don't see the point in selling low. He is not bringing any form of impact player now or in the near future. That would require Duran / Lewis / Ryan / Larnach / Miranda / Kirilloff type assets. Maybe we could throw in Brian Duensing. ?

I have been as adamant as anyone that trying to build a pitching staff through free agency has an extremely low probability of success. I have also pointed that most big free agent SPs are good for a year or two and then very suspect beyond year 2. Yet, I think next year is a unique situation for the Twins. They are going to have a ton of inexpensive talent. The only position that will need attention in the off-season is catcher. They will also have Gray / Ryan / Winder / Ober / Smeltzer and probably Canterino and Paddack by the 1/2 way point. They will be in a much better position to spend on a free agent SP than we have seen in as long as I can remember. I know I am being optimistic especially given I have pointed out more than once that modest revenue teams don't land the big free agent SPs. Others here have pointed out they have had no interest. However, it did appear they were serious about Wheeler and Darvis or perhaps willing is the operative word. If it's ever going to happen, it's next season.

It's not that hard to put together an accurate estimate. The two primary revenue sources (TV & Ticket) sales are well documented which makes ranking revenue relatively easy. There are also service like Statistica that provide some basic statistics for free as an enticement to subscribe to their service. So, while we don't know exactly, we have a very good idea. Therefore, to use the argument that these figures are not public appears to be a refusal to accept very compelling evidence because it does not support your preferred conclusion which was basically my original point. Fans don't bother to look at how successful teams acquired their talent even though it is very easy to do. BTW ... The league inadvertently tells us which teams had the lowest revenue via their revenue sharing distribution.

I wonder if having the draft so late is going to hold up some promotions.

Cotton is not on the 40 man. He was here on a Covid exception and we will have several players coming off the IL and Covid lists. They are going to have some 40 man challenges when Ryan / Gray / Correa / Kirilloff and Alcala come back. Part of this is also you don't just dump a guy that has been part of the team for 6 years without giving them a chance to redeem themselves. It's not good for morale. There are also MANY examples of players who struggle for a while and then do great. Buxton really sucks right now too. I am betting he we get back to playing great.

I would follow the practices and strategies that have proven to be effective. The list below shows the number of 90 win seasons for teams in the bottom half of revenue. Would it not make sense to follow the practices of Oakland, Tampa, and Cleveland given those three teams have been by far the most successful teams? Oakland 10 Indians 9 Rays 8 Twins 6 Dbacks 4 Brewers 4 Mariners 4 Reds 3 Orioles 2 Pirates 2 Marlins 1 Padres 1 Royals 1 Rockies 1 Take any season in which these teams have won 90+ games. Then, pull up Fangraphs for the given season and look at the players contributing 1.5+ WAR. You will find that drafting and trades for prospects make up about 80% of that WAR. Free agent acquisitions make up about 15%. However, the portion of that 15% related to premium free agent (5+ years) is almost non-existent. Nelson Cruz is a great example. Low number of years and 5-15m/year. The portion related to Established star players acquired in trade is extremely small. If I were sum up the strategy in a paragraph. I would follow those teams practices while using the revenue advantage the twins have over Cleveland / Oakland and Tampa to either extend players or spend the incremental revenue on free agents. In the scenario we will have next year, it would be viable to land a $/$25M type free agent. Just like those teams I would be very reluctant to trade prospects for players with less than 2 years control. The Gray trade was a good use of assets because it was 2 full years for a high school pitcher. While he was a great prospect. We all know the odds for HS SPs is low so I like those odds. Trading 6+ year assets for 1-year assets is a good way to be better for 1 year but bad most years.

You and many others have absolutely insisted it's a Twins front office thing. Is this or is this not correct? That ignores that these contracts are extremely rare for similar revenue teams. The position you have taken suggests failing to make such signings is incompetent. We can also make a fair conclusion that suggests you have a superior understanding to all of these front offices as to what should be done. I am simply offering an opinion that these many individuals who were deemed qualified for the job are probably not the individuals with an inferior understanding but go ahead and assume that if you don't understand their actions it must because of their ignorance and incompetence.

I just don't know how they put Sano back on the active roster unless he crushes it during his rehab. They should eat the salary and use the roster spot for someone that will here next year. Trade him for $250K of International draft money. I would take $100K but ask $250K.

A little too soon to tell. It will be more interesting to look at this at the 3/4 pole. I am thrilled with the Gio for Donaldson trade. I would give the slight edge to Gio as their OPS is about the same and Gio is fun to watch at 3B. Plus, they got rid of the contract. I am a big Garver fan. Always have been so I hated to see him go but Sanchez has been the more valuable player. The Correa for IKF is a no brainer. I am not sure I see Arraez as the Cruz replacement, but Cruz has really fallen off. He defied father time and he was fantastic while he was here. Was it time to let him go? Yes. All of these moves look quite good especially given how adamant some people were that there was no chance we did not get worse at these positions.

I have conceded they might not ever spend the money while pointing out they are in position with so many cheap players that it gives them more budget than a team with their revenue would normally have. They were serious enough about Darvish and Wheeler to suggest they would be willing given the budget scenario before them next year. I am not the one beating the drum that THIS front office won't make such a signing while ignoring that it's almost never done. If you want to suggest all of these GMs are incompetent and you are more skilled, make your case but don't continue to insist it's about this front office. History shows quite clearly that's an ignorant statement.

Name a team in the bottom 1/2 of revenue that has signed a free agent SP for over $100M. As far as i know, it has happened twice in the past 25 years. Mike Hampton / Colorado which was an absolute disaster and Zack Greinke / Arizona. The Dbacks won 69 games his first year, 93 the 2nd, and 82 the third year and then they traded him away. Of course, they had just signed a billion dollar TV deal in 2016 when they signed him. The point being characterizing this as a "this FO thing" is not accurate. It's something that is extremely rare among teams in the bottom half of revenue. The question is are they all incompetent or cheap as you seem to suggest or do other teams with modest revenue understand something about building rosters that perhaps you don't understand. Given it's so rarely done it's hard to conclude that either all of these GMs are incompetent or you don't understand why the follow these practices. It has to be one or the other. Someone with a superior understanding of how to run a team as compared to all these other GMs should be able to convince an owner to make them the CBO or GM.

Kind of ... I wanted to understand how players were acquired by teams that built 90+ win rosters. Then, I separated those rosters based on revenue because I was specifically interest on what practices were successful for small or mid-market teams in terms of building 90+ win teams. My method was to identify all of the position players with 1.5+ WAR and RPs with over 1 WAR. I then identified them as Free Agent / Traded for as an established player or traded before becoming established or Drafted. The bar for being established was that they had 1 or more seasons with 1.5 WAR or more. Players acquired as prospects (before becoming established) and acquired through the draft are pretty equal and are by far the dominant influences on building a dominant team in a small/mid market. Trades and free agency play a very small. The free agents that are impactful are generally modest price guys that exceed expectations. We have some good examples coming to fruition presently in Ryan / Duran / Celestino / Smeltzer. SWR and Austin Martin will hopefully add to this list as well.

He also has a very high walk rate that is about equal to his K rate. It will be nice when he moves up so we can watch him on Milb TV. It might be that he does not expand the zone with 2 strikes. So, he takes some called 3rd strikes but gets a bunch of walks. If in fact the taking 3rd strikes is also leading to a walk rate of around 25%, his crazy high OBP is attached to this approach. I like it. We often see guys that chase everything once they get two strikes. While some hang in there and occasionally get a hit, the ability to take such a high percentage of walks is likely more productive. Of course, I am speculating having not seen him.

His OPS for the last 3 weeks is 1.295. Wow!!!!! Seth had him high preseason but I think we see him get national attention soon. I wonder if they will wait for the draft to move him up.

I have gone back and looked at literally every major free agent SP signing in the past 20 years. The very top "Scherzer type" have panned out. What people ignore is you better be ready to win in their first couple years because the Cueto / Corbin scenarios are the norm. I have posted just how poorly free agent SPs have performed a couple times. They have a horrible track record after the first year. This last year they refused to give Berrios 7 years. His ERA is 5.24 this year. Robbie Ray has a 4.97 ERA and Gray's ERA is 4.83. Rodriguez is a little better at 4.38 and the only long-term deal going well so far is Gausman with an ERA of 2.78. It just amazes me that people continue to pound this drum while ignoring how poorly these deals go. One in five would have been making any difference this year yet people still complain they did not make moves that would not have helped while ignoring they have added guys that look like they will contribute for years (Ryan / Duran / Winder / Smeltzer) plus the jury is still out on Jax but it looks like he will be a good BP piece. Megill might be the same story. Mike might be right that this FO might refuse to ever go there given how poor the track record has been for these deals. However, as I said earlier, they are in a very enviable situation because they stuck to the plan of building from with. It's somewhat ironic that building from within facilitates adding that final piece(s) through free agency or trade, especially for mid-market teams. Small and mid-market teams don't sign the huge money 5-10 year guys because the risk is too high and it is generally very difficult to piece together an entire roster. The Twins roster has so much inexpensive talent emerging that spending a large percentage of payroll on a single player is not nearly as problematic as it would be for most mid market teams. Mike might still be right but if there was ever a time it is now. They have the payroll capacity and there are seven very good free agents SPs next year.

I am sure you would.

Yes, if they only would have landed Robbie Ray like you wanted all would be solved. His 4.97 ERA would have been the solution. They had absolutely no chance of building a contender through free agency. Plus, they had a variety of prospects they believed would be successful. Had they followed the path you insist upon, we would be nowhere. Instead, they have already established Ryan and Duran. Winder looks great and even Smeltzer looks to be a valuable asset. They have improved the team's long-term outlook immensely and yet you are still wondering why they did not try to build through free agency and trades.

They had literally one reliable starter in Ober and a good looking prospect in Ryan. The current situation looks very different although we need to see how things look at the end of the season. Right now it looks quite certain that the unproven prospect (Ryan) is going to be very good. They added another prospect in Winder that at the moment is similar to Ryan at the end of last year in that he looks very good but needs to establish himself. We will see by the end of the year. Then, there is Duran who at the start of the season was certainly not someone anyone was depending on. Then, we have Smeltzer looking like he will be a solid piece of the equation. Then, we have Lewis who many wanted to trade because he was so high risk now looking very good. Then, we have Celestino and Larnach looking great. The situation is not even remotely similar.