Major League Ready

Do they deserve an A+? No. That was probably just Pohlad’s way of publically supporting the management team. However, a baseball fan / blogger is going to evaluate the situation differently than a business owner. A management consulting firm that evaluates management operations would also look at the situation through a considerably different lens. The baseball fan is going to focus on this season. A business owner is going to look at their entire tenue, where we were, and how we are positioned for the future. A owner or professional evaluation team would also focus on management infrastructure and the things they were brought in to change. The Twins were far behind the league in terms of analytics and player development programs. Are we considerably better positioned than when we were? Minor league operations were evaluated and change substantially. What kind of hiring decisions have they made? How much have these things improved? We have some insight to these questions. I would presume the Pohlad’s have been given formal reports. Sorry Tom, while I agree the A+ is public puffery, you are very focused on the premise they have had 5 years to bring in pitching. For starters, their 1st draft was 2017. That’s 4 years. We also lost an entire minor league season and you have to at least consider the role injury has played. They would have graduated a couple more pitchers given a normal rate of injury. The grade for me is an incomplete. We have never been this deep in legitimate pitching prospects. Are they different from prospects like Jay / Romero / Gonsalves who ultimately failed? IDK but that’s the point. We still don’t know if the Falvey / Lavine prospects are going to make it or not because their picks have yet to be tested at the ML level because of very unusual circumstances. Four years (not 5) would have been adequate under normal conditions but we did not have normal conditions. The decisions made this year were all reasonable. The moves that are going to hurt us for a while were made long ago in the form of trading away Gil / Ynoa and leaving Wells unprotected. There were other guys that were fringe players that should have been exposed before Wells. Gil and Ynoa were the type of trades many fans want to make. Trade a way A ball guys for help now. However, they were high upside SPs. Those guys should never be traded away like they were for a 4th OFer and a rental. I find these decisions much more objectionable that what happened this season.

I really hope they can find acceptable terms with Buxton. He is by far the most exciting player on the team. However, the risk needs to be addressed. Take out his first year because he debuted in June and also take out 2020 because of covid and he averages 80 games a year. He has only played over 100 games once. You can’t be a difference maker if you are not on the field. A mid-market team paying big guaranteed money to a risky player is by no means a no-brainer. We can take an indignant stance as fans because it’s very easy to ignore risk when you are not accountable. Just think about the list of high profile players with contracts that have really hurt their teams for years. It’s far from a no brainer and cost does matter.

According to Fangraphs, Garlick has an option, Refsnyder does not. My guess is that Garlick and Rooker are on the 40 man next year. 2022 is not realistically a year in contention. Therefore, players like Rooker / Gordon / Jax / Garza will probably get an extended look in 2022. Jax might be in the pen or a stacked starter.

I thought about that last night. Cruz is certainly among the best FA acquisitions this team has ever made. Then, his parting gift is to bring back a really nice prospect that might be an impact player for another 6+ years.. Who knows, maybe two. Yes, thank you Nelson Cruz. I hope he is back as a coach one day.

They need to fill 4 spots next year. 3 if Ryan establishes a spot in the rotation. If he shows he can be relied upon to start and If they intend to use 2022 to develop pitching prospects, he could bridge the gap until additional prospects are ready. A reliable starter in his final year of arbitration to bridge the gap until a prospect pushes their way on to the team would be a nice asset. Filling one of those spots for roughly $3M leaves more budget for a front of the rotation SP or a SS.

I would hope they would wait until the end of the year to draft a “blueprint”. They are evaluating quite a few SP and RPs the rest of the way. Once that is done they will need to decide if they can realistically build a contender this off-season. I am not sure what that blueprint looks like but it looks unlikely to me. From there the blueprint takes shape based on how willing they are to allocate time at the big league level to prospects. Here is what I think that looks like. Position players - Start by trading Donaldson in the off-season and Miranda spends all or most of 2022 at the ML level. Martin still needs to prove he is ready. That might not be until June. I don't see Lewis here until 2023. They either go with a stop gap SS or give Palacios a chance. They could possibly trade Arraez for a SS that is blocked or a top pitching prospect if you can get it. Starting pitching – Sign a quality veteran for 2022 and beyond. He can lead and between him and Ober you have a start. Hopefully Ryan will establish himself over these last few weeks. This would be the idea year for a good bounce back candidate. They would get every chance here given the wide open rotation. The bounce back candidate or Dobnak or perhaps both get a shot at the start of the season. Prospects are shuffled in as they prove to be ready. I hope that includes Winder / Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Enlow / SWR and maybe Cole Sands. RP – Rogers / Duffey / Alcala / Minaya is a good start. There is nothing wrong with the way these guys have pitched of late. I would put Jax in the BP and see how that works. Thielbar / Columbe / Garza are serviceable. We need to add a good LH RP. Is this a formula to contend? Of course not but 500 is realistic. There is no good plan for building an entire SP staff capable of realistically contending in one off-season. However, they could position themselves to realistically contend in 2023. Get Cave and Simmons out of this lineup replaced with Kirilloff / Garlick or Larnach and a decent hitting SS and we have a good lineup. By the end of 2022, Ober / Ryan should be sufficiently seasoned. It’s reasonable that at least one of Winder / Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Enlow / SWR gets established in 2022. Having moved Donaldson (partial salary) and declining Sano’s option we will have plenty of salary room to add a top SP via free agency. Perhaps Jose Berrios. Of course, they have to be willing to play here but establish the rest of the rotation with prearb guys will be a scenario we have not seen here in recent or even distant memory.

I was basically agreeing with you from a slightly different angle.

A. Are we trading Rogers / Duffey / Thielbar / Polanco / Kepler / Arraez / Garver / Donaldson and Sano. If not, how is this a rebuild? B. Many players care 1st about money and 2nd playing where they are comfortable. There are plenty of players with better track records than Buxton who stayed with a team because they simply preferred to stay. Players don't like their lives disrupted and a dollar in MN is the same as a dollar anywhere else, tax rates not withstanding.

Retooling for 1 year and a complete rebuild are two very different things. Pretending we can rebuild a complete rotation in one year is a good way to prolong the process.

So what realistic plan constructs an entire starting rotation in one off-season. What mid-market team has ever even attempted to acquire 4 SPs capable of contending? The answer is there is no realistic plan to build a contending staff from nothing in one off-season, at least not for any team than perhaps the Yankees or Dodgers who could buy the SPs if there were that many available. The problem is not so much the plan but the concept of a $300M revenue team constructing a contending rotation from nothing in one off-season.

I am assuming you mean opening day of 2022. That would be relevant if we were counting on them to contribute to a contending team. The strategy of a mid market team producing a contending rotation in the off-season without counting on an absurd level of luck would be incompetent on the part of our FO. Any attempt is likely to perpetuate mediocrity or worse. So why manage the roster as if this is the goal. All of the prospects I mentioned have a reasonably good chance of being ready to pitch at the ML level at some point in 2022. If you don't believe ML experience is important, we should fill the rotation with established pitchers and let our prospects sit in AAA. That's sounds like a really good way to continue to be bad to me. Developing pitching is basically a prerequisite to contending for a mid or small market team so shouldn't our strategy facilitate that need?

What is competitive? A 500 team or a contender?

That's some backward wisdom. If you fill a spot, it's not open for a prospect. It's not complicated. This does not cause a problem If we contending. It does create a problem giving a prospect that is ready innings at the ML level. We are going to have four opening, three if they give Dobnak a shot so the question is how many spots do we need for the guys that will be ready. Guys that should or could be ready next year .... Balazovic / Ryan / Woods Richardson / Duran / Canterino / Enlow / Winder and Sands. That's 8 if you don't count Jax or Barnes. Is it a good idea to fill the rotation with Pineda types and fail to provide these guys the ML experience they need for this team to move forward. That's a good way to be a 500 team and prolong that level of play. This team's future is largely dependent on developing our SP prospects. Let's get on with it.

Agree with the pitching part. Donaldson is signed through 2023 and a $16M option for 2024 withan $8M buyout. We would be better off long-term to get out of that contract ASAP and transition to Miranda next year. Ideally, we trade Donaldson and pay $5-7M of his salary. I believe Miranda could produce as well as a 3y y/o Donaldson in 2023. Take the extra $15M and sign a $30M SP instead of a $15M SP or sign Buxton. Actually, they could afford both with Donaldson off the books.

Enlow might not be enough under the radar guy to be the next Ober but I have a feeling he emerges next year. I guess Sands is the same kind of under the radar prospect that could turn into a solid MLB starter. Valimont is nothing like Ober in that he struggles with command and Ober has plus command. However, he has the stuff and he would be very good if he were able to develop even average command. He is 24 and it does not seem to be improving so I have my doubts. I am hoping moving to the BP and getting more frequent reps helps his control. Sawyer Gibson-Long is the one that most reminds me of Ober. Great command. He would be a good bet if he could dial up the velo a couple mph like Ober was able to do.

If it makes you feel better, they failed. The Pohlad’s know the plan failed. Reasonable plans / actions fail quite frequently in MLB. Players get injured and good players underperform. There is an endless list of high dollar FAs and trades that fail. In other businesses, we expect certain failures as well. What gets people fired is the pursuit of questionable judgement because it’s expeditious or utilizes strategies with a low probability of success. The strategy going forward should not be based on the failure of the previous plan. It should be based on the merit of the plan in terms of achieving the goal of sustained success. The continued employment of Falvey and Levine should be a product of their ability to bring forth a plan to come back from the current failure. I would hope the Pohlad’s will ask for a concept plan at the end of the season. They should let them go if they do not believe in the plan and vision Falvey / Levine present. If they believe in the plan, they should allow them to manage that plan. If it fails, it would suggest they are unable to execute and they should be let go.

Whenever I present to a client’s senior management team or board of directors, I prepare for their likely questions and responses. In this case, I imagine going before the board and presenting a future state plan and concluding we should proceed with a focus on contending next year. Point 1 – We need to replace the entire starting pitching staff and a couple RPs. Here is my plan complete with FA acquisitions and trades. Their response …. Is it feasible to replace an entire SP staff to the point of building a contender? No, extremely low odds. How often is this feat accomplished and how much will it cost. Never, any team in this position retools in some form taking 1-5 years, longer in the case of many teams throughout history. $75-80M will BP additions. What are the odds of it working out? Very Very Small Will this plan facilitate sustained success? No. It will put a better product on the field next year at the expense of giving prospects playing time at the MLB level. We will also have to trade away prospects that would improve our future outlook. Point 2 – If all the acquisitions work out which has about a 15% probability, we would still need to resolve our SS issue so we need to spend another $25M. Then, we need to hope Donaldson stays healthy and productive, Kirilloff comes back from injury and Sano is more like the last month than the previous 4 months. Oh and we need Buxton to stay healthy and produce like he did in April. To which they respond … How long would or relative position change if you took a year to focus on development and could you put a reasonably good product on the field during the interim? We have about 10 SPs that are ready or could be by ready for the ML level by 2023. By 2023 we could field 4-5 solid SPs. Then, we could add a top of the rotation SP in 2023. We could trade Donaldson and transition Miranda in 2022. We would take a hit on his salary but it would position us to sign a top SP and retain Buxton. We have BP prospects and some SPs that could be used to solidify a very good BO by 2023. It is also likely Martin Lewis will be ready by 2023 but we would need at least one roster spot if not two to get them transitioned. We could also trade Arraez for a SS that will be ready by 2023 if we are not confident in Lewis / Martin at SS. To which they respond … you believe the former strategy is better than the latter. Yes, we need to take a shot at contention even though the likelihood of success is extremely low. To which they responds … please get out of our board room, we will not be needing your services in the future.

I never once heard them say they could put a contending team on the field every year. What I heard them say was that their GOAL was sustained success. What else would you want them to say? For anyone who knows the game at all to interpret that statement to mean they will put a contender on the field every year is incredibly simplistic thinking. It's just not possible so why would anyone interpret their statement to be such a promise. Then, to lash out with "they should just trade everyone" is simply a crude approach. Teams going through many different variations of rebuilding and retooling. It makes exactly zero sense to trade off every established asset. They have a solid core. The BP already looks much improved and they have numerous MLB ready starting pitching prospects. Establishing those SPs by 2023 would put them in the enviable position of anchoring 3 or 4 spots in their rotation with prearb players. That positioning would allow them to sign a very top tier free agent SP which most mid market teams are never able to afford. Incompetence is pursuing a bad plan because it's expeditious.

Cabrera is an interesting case. He has only played 60 Milb games since turning 20. He had 102 games in Rookie ball from 17-19. He really has not had time to develop. How is his defense / range / arm?

Nick’s plan sounds a lot like the Padres plan except the Padres had a few advantages. They started with Tatis jr / Machado and Jake Cronenworth who will have about 4.5 WAR by the end of the season. Polanco has a shot to get to 4 WAR if he stays hot. We don’t have another position player that will get to 2.5 WAR. They also were bring back an established quality starter in Chris Paddack and they had the best and deepest farm system in the league to trade from. How is it working out for SD? Well, they are not going to make the playoffs. They are on pace for 86 wins provided they don’t continue to struggle like they have been. How about next year? My guess is 84-85 wins. Darvish at 35 has been bad the last couple months. He has given up 27 ER in his last 39 innings (9 games). Next year they have $20M invested in his age 36 season and what are the odds he is any good in his age 37 season. They do have Musgrove for 1 more season. They have Blake Snell for 2 more seasons but so what. He has basically been a 2 WAR pitcher for 5 seasons and he had one year where he was great. They gave up Luis Patino in the Snell trade. He has a 60FV SP and has already made it to the MLB level. He is a better prospect than Joe Ryan without a doubt. He has 3 plus pitches (FB 65) and plus command (60). While he may not ever have a season like Snell did when he was the Cy Young winner, he will probably be better than Snell over the course of his career. He might even be better than Snell next year and they have him for the next 6 years. Ray’s also got Mejia who is a solid platoon catcher (basically Jeffers) and they also got Cole Wilcox who was 20 at the time of the trade. He has a 2.03 ERA. Granted, he is still in A ball but this kind of long-term approach. Lots of people are going to be disappointed when the Twins don’t follow a San Diego type strategy. I hope they take 2022 to develop the myriad of MLB and near MLB ready pitchers. Give them time at the MLB level instead of following a strategy likely to produce mediocrity. So, many here like to write the FO will demonstrate incompetence if they don’t do all of these things. I disagree. Hopefully, they have the critical thinking skills to pursue an approach that has the best chance of building sustained success and that approach is not consistent with a strategy that pursues the illusion of being a serious WS contender next year and failing to develop our prospects at the MLB level..

Waaaaaaay too early to jump to to a conclusion. He is 23 and we lost a season of development last year. We have seen them add velo with other guys. A couple MPH could make a big difference and this guy has the frame and athleticism. Refining the changeup for a 3rd pitch would be big and he has plus control. Let's not write the guy off top the BP just yet. The negativity around here is a real downer.

The most important individual performance in August IMO was Ober establishing his place in rotation for next year. However, the BP in aggregate is looking like we have added some pieces that will help next year. Minaya looks to be part of the future. Garza could do the same with a strong performance the remainder of the season and Griffin Jax will probably end up as part of the BP solution. Coulumbe is serviceable too. Alcala has what it takes and he seems to be putting it together. Get Rodgers back with Alcala performing the way he has recently, put Gant in the BP, replace Colome with a reliable late inning guy and along with these new additions we have reason to be optimistic about the BP next year. Rodgers / FA / Duffey / Alcala / Minaya / Gant / Thielbar / Garza Jr. A LH free agent would be ideal or a RH free agent, Gant starts the year in rotation if he does well the rest of the year. Jax is a depth piece in the rotation or replaces Garza.

Eaton is a replacement level player so how is he an example of a great addition. Abreau was an extension, NOT an addition. How is Gonzales an example of a good sign? He was below replacement level? Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal were two years ago. Hendricks and Lynn were this year. So, yes they made a couple good signings in successive years. They did not even remotely close to what you are suggesting in a given year. Actually, no team outside the top 10 revenue markets have ever done anything close to what you are suggesting and I doubt even the top revenue teams have ever added the number of impact players you are suggesting in a given year. You do understand there are 30 other teams competing for these players, right?

They don’t need to blow it up. They need to use 2022 to get pitchers established. It won’t be pretty at times but they could put a very good product on the field in 2023 if they use this next year to develop pitchers. This includes testing guys like Jax in the BP. Let’s assume for just a moment Ober is solid going forward. They need two of Balazovic / Ryan / Duran / Canterino / SWR / Enlow / Winder to get established in 2022. That’s a relatively modest expectation. Maeda is back in 2023. Establishing all these pitchers will leave plenty in the budget to go sign a very good SP, perhaps Jose Berrios. Sign Buxton and get Kirilloff back and healthy in 2022. Make the transition from Donaldson to Miranda in 2022. Some of the starting pitching prospects fine their way to the BP in 2022. Martin joins the big league club in 2022 and Lewis in 2023. We would still have enough payroll flexibility to add one more impact FA as a result of developing SP and pieces. We could also trade Arraez for a SS or pitching. BTW ... This team is over 500 this month against a very tough schedule without Buxton / Kirilloff and "no pitching". Get those guys back and hopefully some production from Larnach with Jake Cave removed and we have a pretty darn good offense.

I am think the question you should have asked was if the poster was suggesting the Twins trade away long-term assets similar to Sale/ Eaton like the WS did to initiate building the team they have now. Trading away a year and a couple months of Berrios is not at all like trading Sale and Eaton and whoever else they traded back then. It makes absolutely no sense to hold up the WS as an example and ignore they got here via a rebuild that took a few years. They spent very little in free agency during those years. Sode note: I believe the Twins were at roughly $10M less than the WS in annual salary before they traded away Cruz / Berrios / Happ