Major League Ready

For what it's worth ... I was listening to "The Front Office" on MLB network while driving this weekend. They were actually talking about the Met's failure this year and what they should do about it. Their solution was to do whatever it takes to get Theo Epstein including giving him partial ownership. Their back-up plan was to get Derek Falvey. They were emphatic to the point of suggesting they give him a 10 year $100M contract. Point being this is what impartial observers who have actually had a GM job think of Falvey.

There is a good chance he ends up in the BP, They just don't have a lot of options at the moment because of the crazy number of injuries on the MLB and Milb side.

I have seen him at SS and CF. Can't say I know the ratio.

Baseball teams and players for that matter have many critics. Everyone knows how to run the team better. How many of those critics have credentials for running a $300M business because that's what we are talking about. Many people here have highly skilled jobs that required a significant formal education and then several years of validating their skills to get said job. If someone (a hobbyist) came to their office and suggested these skilled people had no idea what they were doing, I am thinking the response would be less than cordial. Apparently, everyone has the skillset required to run a baseball organization because everyone seems to be qualified to evaluate baseball executives. They are so skilled that they can do this without even meeting them or reviewing the decision process that took place as we have few of these details.

When I checked on the Milb games last night I noticed Gibson-long threw 67 pitches, 56 for strikes. So, I watched the innings he pitched. You can't tell much given the camera work for A+ games but you could not miss that everything was around the zone. Anyone know what he has for velocity?

I have ZERO problem with them trading Wade. We were very deep in corner OFers, especially LH. Frankly, he looked like a AAAA player to me. His only above average skill was plate discipline. He looked to have well below average power. Fangraphs rated him 30/35. He was not fast enough to play CF and he has a weak arm. We will see if he continues to hit HRs at this rate but count me surprised and skeptical that the league won’t adapt. I believe the Twins thought highly of Baddoo. They (like me) just did not believe a team would take him and roster him for a year or that he would perform this well thrown into at the MLB level. Numerous highly regarded prospects did not perform well this year after missing last year. Others were unaffected. Point being I doubt they did not believe in his talent. They just did not believe a team would take him. The trades that bug me is Luis Gil and Huascar Ynoa. I don’t recall anyone here having a problem with us trading away a 19 year old A-ball pitcher and I thought little of it as well. 3 ½ years later, and the knowledge that Cave did not amount to much, this one bothers me because we traded away a pitcher with a high ceiling for a tweener. Ynoa was traded for a rental. Gil / Ynoa / Ober would be a nice start to building a great rotation. There are a couple lessons here. One of them is that we will still be following the team when these deals that take 3 or 4 years impact the ML club come to fruition.

I was going to login to the game thread last night for the sole purpose of saying that umpire sucked! Jax made a couple of perfect pitches and the ump screwed him. Then, he called a couple on our guys that were 4 inches outside the zone.

We have had pluses and minuses just like most teams. We got Odorizzi for nothing. The one that looks like a pretty big negative at the moment is Luis Gil. He looks legit. Man, I would like to have him here next year. It happens, Was Chicago's FO monumentally incompetent when they traded away Tatis Jr. or is it part of the risk of trading prospects away?

Thanks Seth. Do you think he has enough bat to be an every day player? That versatility would make for a great bench player.

This discussion just illustrates that this roster could go in a lot of different directions. It will be interesting to see how many Donaldson rumors pop up this fall. That will give us an idea if they are looking to move him. Sign Buxton and trade Donaldson is #1 and #2 this off-season for me. I don't think trading Donaldson is key to making next year's team better but it would help build a winner if the corresponding moves are good.

How is Spencer Steer defensively at 3B. Does he have a chance to be an everyday 3B or is his future a utility guy? Where have they been playing Martin?

I agree Lewis could end up at 3B. However, if we lose Buxton, Lewis will be most valuable in CF. I do not agree on trading Miranda and I don't believe there is anyway the FO deals him. We are thin at 3B as it is. Donaldson has reached the point in his career that his utility at 3B and his ability to stay on the field is declining. I share your concern given Miranda's sudden breakthrough. However, he has sustained it at 2 levels. More importantly, Miranda's potential impact is huge and we would feel that impact for several years. Would the Ray's trade Miranda. VERY unlikely! Arraez is a valuable player and he is fun to watch. I don't really want to trade him but he is viable as an every day 2B. My thinking is that he would have his maximum value in that role. Therefore, either Arraez or Polanco would bring back greater value than they provide under our current roster construction. Of course, you have to find the right deal but the hope is to get a SS or pitching and Martin or Lewis eventually take the Arraez role. They can sign a free agent until that happens or give Gordon or Palacios a shot in 2022 until Martin / Lewis are ready.

There is a famous lyric ... there is none so blind as those who will not see. The facts (stats) show clearly that Rosario is a replacement level player this year producing well below average players. Holding him up as a solution or someone who would have made any difference this year is an absolute refusal to acknowledge the brutally obvious. Past performance is a nice memory but it has no function today! I also found no entertainment in watching the horrible ABs, defensive lapses, and base running errors. Here is the good news. His relative performance / value will be illustrated by the offers he receives when he is available to every team in the league.

True. It's also true that ditching a veteran that has been an elite player will not be looked upon favorably when we try to sign free agents in the future. They are still looking for the next $10M payday and being dumped to the bench does not help their cause for next year. You may think it's OK to discard them but it will make a poor impression among their piers. Fans can be this short-sighted. GMs need to protect the team's image with players.

Yes he is but stating emphatically that they lose 100 games with him at SS is an absurd statement given they won 100 games in 2019 with him at SS. I really want a better SS solution too but let's not get carried away with statements like they lose 100 games with him at SS.!

IMO, any team trading Miranda and keeping Donaldson is a big mistake, especially a team with the Twins scenario in terms of having numerous pitching prospects to get established. It's an even bigger mistake for a small or mid-market team. I think our problem is we have 2 very good 2B. Trade one of them if the value back is there. BTW, it probably won't be a similar value established MLB player. The team that trades for Arraez or Polanco is not looking to give up high end major league talent. It's possible but unlikely. Tampa is really good at get guys on the brink of the big leagues or guys that have just broke in but not gotten established. I would trade one of Arreaz / Polanco (probably Arraez) AND Donaldson. It could backfire. Miranda could fail at this level but worst case scenario we spend whatever part of Donaldson's salary we off-load on a SS or pitching.

Sure hope he continues to impress. He has been a bright spot this year.

I watched the Saints game instead of the Twins to watch Ryan. He was impressive. Very good command of his FB. He did not use his off-speed stuff much and when he did the command was not great. Hopefully, the Twins staff can help him dial in his other offerings. He is going to be good but he could be very good if he sharpens his other pitches.

Rosario may have been my favorite Twin for a period of time. He made a big impression on me in the AFL Championship game. If my memory is correct, he went 4-5 with 2HR, a triple and double and smoked a ball on a line to the RF for the only out he made. Yes, somehow he got 1 MVP pt in 2019 and 1% of the MVP votes in 2020 for his 800 OPS is about average for a corner OFer. I suspect some MN writers had a few votes. He was fantastic the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018. Pitchers adjusted and he simply could not or would not apply any discipline in his plate appearances. The reality after the league made this adjustment, from July 1, 2018 until he was let go, Rosario produced 2.2 WAR in almost 1100 PAs. Kepler produced 7 WAR in that period and Polanco 6.2. If you don’t like WAR, Rosario’s wRC+ was 97. Not horrible put 10 pts under the average corner OFer. His OPS was 760. This year he produced .3 WAR and a wRC+ of 84. He went from mediocre to bad. These numbers are fact so I am going to go with that as reality. Unless you can explain how a near replacement level player would have made a difference, going back to the why didn’t we keep Eddie Rosario well shows an unwillingness to accept the reality of the player he has become.

If you want to fantasize about players that were once good, let's bring back Puckett. Eddie Rosario was mediocre 2018-2020 and replacement level in 2021. To come here and suggest it was a mistake to let him go or that he would have been smart to retain a guy playing at replacement level for is living in the past with no clue of the current reality. Refsnyder and Garlick were both substantially better for $9M less. What are the odds you get to you 5th level of depth for one position?

It would be interesting to see the productivity (WAR) for free agent position players after the 1st year of a new contract. As you know, I did this analysis for free agent pitchers and it was not pretty. As a mater of fact it would suggest this is an ill-advised strategy. I say "suggests" because the same size is too small to be conclusive, Lorenzo Cain is a good example. He was great the first year (5.7 WAR) The next year (2019) he produced 1.5 WAR. Then, .2 WAR in 2020, the Covid season and so far this year has produced .9 WAR. I examined all FA pitchers with 5+ year contracts going back several years. Obviously, this is just one position player and I doubt the drop-off after the 1st year is as extreme with position players.

I am not so sure. I could see Iglesias or Galvis. Simmons offense has been bad enough they just might move on. I do love the way Simmons plays the game but we should explore other options.

Depends on if the organization believes they can fix all that is wrong with our pitching and the rest of the team for that matter in free agency or trades for 2022. Put another way, they could be influenced by their perceived chances of contending in 2022 VS putting a good product on the field in 2022 but under a strategy aimed at 2023. Under that first premise, they go sign 2-3 FA SPs and Jax probably gets squeezed out. He is either SP depth or in the BP. If the organization sees there best chance at returning to contention and sustaining that success being dependent of developing a lot of pitching, they commit to that strategy by giving the plethora of SP prospects they have a shot. This could mean they keep three spots open in 2022. Jax / Ober / Barnes and perhaps Ryan will be the plan come spring training. Winder / Balazovic or Strotman could win a spot in spring training. Jax probably still gets moved the BP or traded as Balazovic / SWR / Duran / Canterino / Enlow make their way to the ML club. So, the plan focused on 2023 would start with 3 of Jax / Ober / Barnes / Ryan but the 5 mentioned above will hopefully be good enough to take the place of the weakest link and the rotation looks quite different at the end of the season. Best case scenario is we end up trading some young pitching or some of these guys end up effective BP arms. The strategy aimed at 2023 likely means trading Donaldson in the off-season if possible and bringing Miranda up in 2022.

I am 100% with you on this one. The young SPs have looked like they can more than hold their own. I would much rather have one really good SP than a couple Pineda / Happ types. Give me Rodon (or similar) plus Maeda and 3 of Ober / Jax / Barnes / Ryan / Winder to start the season and we should do quite well. Balazovic / Duran waiting in the wings with SWR / Enlow and Canterino not far behind. A couple of these guys are going to end up booting our BP nicely. Polanco needs to stay at 2B. SS would be a good free agent investment but I could also see trading Arraez for a SS that is being blocked elsewhere. Miranda could fill that role next year and eventually replace Donaldson. Really hope they can come to terms with Buxton. We might not be a true contender in 2022 with these moves but we will be close and should be in the thick of it in 2023. That's a nice rebound.

I doubted Barnes from the start but how do you dump him when he has been quite effective. Maybe crafty lefties will be more effective now that so many players have built swings to deal with 95+. IDK but I would continue to test him at the MLB level. I should add that perhaps we should be a little more open minded to the rookies and waiver wire pick-ups that helped us go 7-3 against all the 3 division leaders in successive series. Pretty good without having Buxton / Kirilloff and Rodgers.