Major League Ready

Looking at the game logs I noticed he started off very slow and had one hit in the first six games. Since then, he is hitting 383 with an OPS of 1.300. Wow! He will be suspect until he can get that K rate down but this is encouraging. Does anyone know if his defense has improved?

The FO is in the middle of an extensive rebuild on the fly. They are instituting several long-term replacements. Position Players 1B – We all knew this was Sano’s last year 2B – Set with Polanco. SS – Correa is a great 1 year add helping to put a good product on the field in the midst of a rebuild. Lewis is the near future. 3B – Donaldson simply was not part of the solution. He is continuing to decline. A lot is riding on Miranda. If he does not make it Steer and CES are relatively close but I assume the front office was planning on Miranda with Urshela as a bridge they could non-tender or trade. LF – Vacated waiting for someone to step-up. For those who wanted to keep Rosario. He is literally one of the worst hitters in all of MLB this year. 4th OF – Celestino was on the door step with other possibilities as well CF – Signed Buxton to be our franchise player. Rotation At the end of last season we basically had one solid back of the rotation guy (Ober) who still needed to prove he was for real. We acquired Ryan at the deadline and hoped he would live up to his potential. Winder looked ready last year and. He got injured and made the opening day lineup. They added a couple bounce back guys (Bundy / Archer) to get us through this year and provide an opportunity for Balazovic / Canterino to also step up. Bullpen Also needed to be pretty much completely rebuilt. Duran looks like he can be dominant but this was quite uncertain at the end of last season. Jax has also shown the signs many of us hoped for in moving him to the BP. There are still several others possibilities in the farm system. That’s a massive amount of rebuild. It made no sense to operate as a “Real Contender” in terms of trades and free agents. Their plan was very obvious by the way they approached this season and their confidence in the system is looking pretty astute at the moment. We are on the cusp of being quite good for several years. That just does not happen immediately. I am very please and hope you are all as well with having a good product to watch while they simultaneously build a team that can seriously contend for the next several years. BTW ... Keep in mind that moving Donaldson and building a homegrown pitching staff will enable the team to spend significantly on free agents especially if Lewis can man SS. They are not going to have any glaring holes so the expenditures can be on impact players instead of fielding enough SPs to keep us in games. IDK how they will spend but they will be extremely well positioned. I never expected them to be a real contender out of the gate. Therefore, I am very pleased to see all of these changes / developments necessary for them to become a contender are looking very promising.

They have won 8 of their last 10 and they have a bunch of important players hurt. So do a lot of teams but 8 of the last 10 with this many injuries is a team I would not be discounting.

You ask a lot of good questions. Garlick is quite valuable against LH pitching. I believe they can keep 5 outfielders (Buxton / Kepler / Larnach / Celestio / Garlick) given they have versatility with Urshela / Miranda / Polanco / Arraez / Kirilloff and Gordon for the infield. Kirilloff probably stays because the infield has less depth. They could send Kirilloff down and put Lewis on the bench. However, Lewis needs to be playing SS everyday. Sacrificing his development right now would be very short sighted. The probability of Correa being here next year is very low. Preparing Lewis to take that spot should be the priority, Plus, we already have 4 guys that can play 2nd and 3rd, 5 guys if you count Gordon. The key here is Kirilloff IMO. Miranda / Urshella / Kirilloff and Arraez would be a nice combo covering 1B & 3B and we really need Miranda to step up and take over 3B permanently. They will need to address 1B if Kirilloff does not step-up. 2nd is covered with Polanco / Arraez / Miranda / Urshela and SS covered with Correa and Gordon in the short-term. Gordon is viable Post Correa but Martin would be better in that role if he is adequate to play SS in a back-up role for 10-12 games/year. IDK If that's possible with Steer but he would be great in that role if he is adequate to back-up SS. He might be a guy that could play all 4 infield positions.

Great to see him get a shot. Welcome to the show Mark Contreras!

You and Chief can beat the "serious contender" drum all year. They are not a serious contender no matter how often you insist they should act like one. They are a good team that could make the playoffs but they are not in the upper tier of playoff teams so expecting they act like a true contender will likely yield disappointment. I expect them to act like a contender if they continue to solidify their rotation. They also need some position players to step up as well. They still have question marks with Jeffers / Kirilloff / Miranda / Lewis / Larnach and Celestino. When enough of this comes together to be a serious contender, that would be the time to act like a true contender. Until that happens, trading short term assets for long-term assets is how winning organizations manage their personnel.

Again, I agree with much of this and I am not sure how MLB players think because I have not managed in that industry which is quite unique. I have had responsibility for thousands of other skilled employees. They tend to have an employee centric bias in how they view management actions. They don't want to be treated that way should their performance suffer at some point. They share an ominous fact which is that their careers are short and they all want as much longevity as possible. They are well aware of minority of guys that got better in their early 30s and they want to believe they can extend their careers. Again, I agree Bundy should not get the kind they gave veterans last year given the depth of young guys. I just don't agree it's a good idea to cut Bundy without giving him an adequate chance to right the ship.

Wallner could be this year's Miranda. As I recall, Miranda success was reported to be influenced by better plate discipline. I was thinking the same thing about the Pitching at cedar Rapids. They have quite the rotation and it's good to know there is another wave behind Balazovic / Canterino / Enlow. I follow Corbin Carroll and I hate the Cavaco pick more every time I check on Carroll's progress. It would ease my pain if Miller turns out great but I just can't help envisioning Buxton / Lewis and Carroll together. That trio would manufacture a lot of runs on the base pads and be insane on defense.

He has been more effective than I expected. It seems to me he is one of those guys that is effective the first time though an order. Maybe it's that funky delivery.

I agree. It's just a matter of degree and my reaction was to those who say give him another game or two. That's poor asset management and just to reactionary to not be looked down upon by players and agents. How would any of us view an employer that treated employees as disposable. MLB is a unique context but there is still likely the expectation of a reasonable chance. Now, if he throws 3 or 4 more clunkers in a row or 4 of 6 games with something like 5 runs allowed and our other SPs are healthy, it becomes more palatable as well as more practical.

The three guys most likely to replace him (Martin/Steer/Julian) are all at AA. The only way I see him being replaced this year is if he is part of a deadline trade. The more likely scenario is one or more of the three above get promoted to AAA mid season and play well enough to earn a promotion next year. Gordon becomes part of an off-season trade. Reminds me of the Wade Jr. situation. Let's hope they do better on this one. The good news is that Steer or Martin could be more impactful than Gordon! A future bench with Celestino / Martin / Steer and a a big bat DH sounds really good to me. Martin or Steer could be good enough to take 2B permanently when Polanco becomes a FA in 2025.

Lewis is going back to St. Paul if Correa is able to come back relatively quickly.

Some of the free agent SPs promoted here have been good (Scherzer / Rodon / Gausman). Scherzer just was not feasible. Rodon and Gausman have been great, but I still don't know the risk associated with those contracts make sense given how good our pipeline looks. Robbie Ray and Eduardo Rodriguez have been mediocre with a 4.38 / 4.50 ERA but he would not be making a difference. Stroman and Jon Gray have been pretty bad. Those contracts would be a bit of a disaster right now. The bottom line is that pipeline is looking very real. We should be in the ideal position going forward. Having a homegrown staff opens many possibilities for filling any gaps needed to build a contender. Ryan / Winder and Ober for the next 6 years plus Paddack for 3 puts us in great shape for starters. Duran / Jax and even Acala for that matter still need to be proven but they look great too. Add Balazovic or Canterino or both to the rotation and we are in phenomenal shape where pitching is concerned. I have not been this optimistic about the probability of sustained success for a long time.

I agree with Dman that Gordon is fine for now but likely replaced in the not so distant future, especially if Martin ends up a utility guy. He can play both INF and OF. Celestino is looking like 1st option off the bench for the OF. Steer is looking like he will be the 1st option off the bench for the INF. That leaves one bench spot. Martin / Steer and Celestino can cover the defensive positions so I would think they would be looking for a big bat that can be a DH.

About 2 months too early to answer this question.

It could be even longer. They got a 19 y/o pitcher (Brayan Medina) who is better than I expected for the PTBNL. What if he pans out? It could might be7 or 8 years before we can fully judge this deal.

No doubt. I normally would not expect much spending on the BP. However, they are likely to be around $70M next year with the following assumptions. 1) Correa opts out which has a very high probability 2) Sano's option is not picked-up. Also a very high probability. 3) Urshela is non-tendered. Kirilloff's health and performance will influence this one. Miranda takes over at 3B and Kirilloff at 1B if Kirilloff is healthy and reasonably productive. Kirilloff and Miranda are certainly not a sure bet. They could fill one of those holes in free agency. Kirilloff staying healthy and delivering on the promise we say early on would be big. I am hoping for a Kirilloff / Polanco / Lewis / Miranda infield given the high probability of Correa opting out. The other wildcard is catcher. They might spend some money on a FA catcher. However, they are going to have plenty payroll room to go 3/30-36M on a BP arm.

It seems like there are a lot of pitching prospects this year that are improving their "prospect status". The mid-year prospect rankings are going to be very interesting.

It would probably be $7M-$9M if he is healthy but I am betting he gets traded this off-season, especially if he can show he is healthy at the end of this season, That contract will make him attractive to a lot of teams. Off course, I am assuming / hoping the twins don't have any long term injuries that would influence keeping Maeda. I am hoping for Gray / Ryan / Winder / Paddack / Ober plus some combination of Balazovic / Canterino / Henriguez and Smeltzer for depth. Dobnak is a bit of a wildcard too but I am guess he ends up in long relief / traded or cut. I just don't see the need to keep Maeda if these guys are all healthy.

The opportunity to resign Rogers remains in place unless he is extended by the Padres. We should be in great shape in terms of payroll flexibility given the payroll for starters next year will be $12M for Gray and a bunch of prearb guys. We won't have much invested in the BP next year either and I would say the odds of Correa opting out are 5:1 so I could see them being more willing to spend on BP arms.

I don't think it's a good strategy to treat acquired free agents or any other player as disposal. Players and agents are quite aware of how a given organization treats players. It's not a good idea from an asset management standpoint or a reputation / relationship standpoint to just jettison a veteran player. It's hard enough to attract players to Minnesota as it is. The new regime has managed to sign Donaldson and Correa. We should not forget about the benefit of being seen as a good organization to play for while making this type of personnel decision.

I share your concern and that he looks like a utility player (a good one) if his power does not improve. I simply don't agree that batting average is a good way to compare players. In this case it ignores that they have roughly the same OBP and OPS. It also ignores that Martin is a much better athlete that can steal bases or be a pinch runner. It also ignores that Martin is likely to be a better defender as a product of his superior athleticism. You are also assuming the Twins FO thought martin was the more valuable piece of the trade because he was higher on prospect lists. It is quite possible they believed SWR was the more valuable prospect. What if SWR turns out to be every bit as good as Berrios and Martin eventually produces the same OBP with a little more power than Arraez while providing bases stealing and better defensive value?

Given Arraez has always had a very low slugging percentage it makes more sense to compare their Milb OPS which is about the same. Martin has additional value in speed / base running and defense. There is also still a chance Martin develops some power. He hit his 1st HR of the season today. I don't understand the Berrios for Martin comment. They also got SWR so they obviously did get much more than Martin for Berrios. Most of the national reporters seemed to suggest SWR and Martin was a very hefty return for Berrios. BTW ... Berrios has an ERA over 5 and a negative WAR. Of course, it's very early to make too much if these early results but we have six starters doing better than Berrios at this point of the year.

I hated the Cavaco pick. I was watching the draft and was stoked Corbin Carroll was still available. He is a top 20 prospect at AA and that ranking is probably moving up the way he has been playing. He is a CFer with 70 grade speed but plenty of bat to play a corner OF. Of course, he could move over to CF when needed and can you imagine Buxton / Lewis and Carroll with that type of speed at the top of a lineup not to mention the defense. Cavaco was a terrible pick.

It's early and hopefully things look as good or better a couple months from now but it's feeling real at this moment. I felt what we saw from Ryan last year was real and I have been believing in Ober for quite some time. He is not a front of the rotation guy but a solid piece going forward. The big potential in my mind was Duran / Winder & Paddack. At the moment they look like the pitching additions we have been awaiting. If these three are for real, the next several years should be a lot of fun. The As are not very good right now but Winder sure does look like a top of the rotation guy. His command looks better than I expected. He has left a few over the heart of the plate that have not been hit. I guess that's good and bad. His stuff is good enough to get away with those mistakes and most of the time he is hitting his spots. The other guy I am cautiously optimistic about is Jax. Obviously, this is off the topic of the rotation, but he looks like he could be another addition that solidifies our pitching. It's great to have a guy out there that can help save the staff by pitching multiple innings when called upon. Call me greedy but now I want Canterino or Balazovic or both to get up to the ML level and impress like Ryan and Winder have. It will feeling very real if that happens. I would like to end the season with a 6man rotation of Ryan / Winder / Gray / Paddack / Balazovic / Ober with Duran / Canterino / Alcala and Jax the back end of the BP. Plus, a LH reliever acquired by trading Bundy or Archer at the deadline.