Major League Ready

I hope you are wrong. By far the most effective way to build a team is by producing starting pitching by drafting or trading for SPs before they are established. When you are a mid or small market team it's essential. The Twins at least have enough revenue that they can supplement a home grown staff with a free agent. IMO, the failure to develop homegrown pitching is one of the primary reasons the Twins have not had a deep playoff run in 30 years I also do not align with your pessimism where are SP prospects are concerned. As of now, I think there is very good reason to believe Winder and Balazovic can be impact SPs. Duran has a lower ceiling (RP) but he probably has the highest ceiling. Canterino / Enlow / Sands all seem to have mid rotation potential. Ober is a bit of a mystery to me. I would think he can be a solid 4 if he can maintain the plus command he has been known for in the minors. There are a couple other guys with potential too. That’s a lot of guys with MLB potential to dismiss. I also am not in the camp that seems to assume trades for SPs always work out. There were a lot of people ardent about trading for Snell who is now boast an ERA of 5.29. For the record, I don’t think it is remotely accurate to say the Twins passed on Wheeler. Wheeler was their #1 target. He was very firm in his desire to be in the NE. Fans sure to like to ignore any information that does not fit the narrative of we should have signed XYZ player. For example, Wheeler did not want to here or the fact that Philly's strategy which is what you are promoting has failed. They have been at or below 500 during the stretch where they signed Harper / Degrom / Wheeler / others and traded & resigned Realmuto. They can't make it work with $100M of incremental revenue on the Twins so is this really the best strategy for the Twins?

Pretty much irrelevant. I said "They did not trade anyone in 2017 that was going to bring a return with much probability of sticking. Can you look at any of those players and say you thought they were really good prospects." Well, was Tyler Watson a prospect with a high probability of sticking? You ignored the point because you want to complain where there is not much to complain about. I suspect they value the International money they got but that too is not the point. Kintzler had a 5.4 SO/9 and the return for him was modest. So, let's try again. Can you look at any of those players and say you thought they were really good prospects? It would be refreshing if you actually answer the question I posed. If they trade Cruz or Pineda or Rodgers for a prospect of the same status, then complain. In this case you did not even stop to think about the prospects that did not turn into MLB players. Seems like you latched on to something you felt made a point. A point which it would appear you did not come to objectively.

Some sports fans just bask in the belief they know more than the people in charge. If he is doing his job correctly, we will never know what goes on out of the public eye. I have no idea if he is doing a good job on a number of issues. I also have no idea if he is doing a good job.

Time to promote Varland.

Larnach was 8th on the team in wRC+ at 96. The league has already discovered his weakness and he will need to adjust.

The list of guys that never made it to "the next level" is endless. I doubt the problem is massive failure throughout the entire league to develop players, especially the last few years. The development effort and practices have been advanced and intensified. It's always possible something different could have been done to help but these three were not top prospects who failed to reach their expected level. Fans just feel better blaming it on "management".

He was never all that great at going to the opposite field. It drives me crazy that he and the coaching staff allow teams to put on an extreme shift. Rod Carew would have batted 900 against that shift. It drives me crazy that he can't take advantage of the enormous hole they leave him. He would not even need to control the distance. He could just bunt as hard as he likes. Had he learned to bunt, he would have negated the shift and his average would be considerably higher.

What does that look like Financially? Donaldson and Sano is roughly $30M. However, I can't imagine we can move Donaldson without eating salary. Are Pineda/Cruz gone. Even with Donaldson's full salary gone, that would be $40-50M cut. Are we replacing them with rookies? Add at least $30M for Buxton / Berrios / Rodgers leaves us $10-20M absolute best case scenario which is not likely. The SSs in next years class are going to be $25-33M. I am not sure any single SP is going to make this group a contender is going to be in the $30M neighborhood. So, we are talking about adding $30-40M (probably $40M) + arbitration increases in 2023. The rotation would have to be filled out by prospects in 2022 and I just don't see a free agent SP and one of the top SS being viable financially. The net of what you have described is to replace Pineda with a better FA and sign a SS. We lose Cruz / Sano. Losing Cruz will hurt. Upgrading Pineda and SS will help. Make us a contender help. I highly doubt it.

You are not exactly framing this in an unbiased manner. They did not trade anyone in 2017 that was going to bring a return with much probability of sticking. Can you look at any of those players and say you thought they were really good prospects. The interesting thing about that year is they went from buyers to sellers. The did give away a player (Ynoa) who I would not mind having back. The 2018 group has not produced yet but we did not have a Milb season last year and there are quite a few decent prospects that came from trading rentals and one good BP arm.

I can't imagining them rushing him. What would be the purpose. This season is lost. What I am hoping is that he demonstrates he is ready. Really hoping for Balazovic and Duran to step it up as well. I would be great if they were battling for a spot but the landscape is pretty wide open. Rosario was one of my favorite Twins. Then, he did not adapt to the league and he made a lot of mistakes players of his experience should not. He has not been good since the first half of 2018 and I was quite firm in the need to let him go. Since the 2018 tradeline he has produced a grand total of 2.2 Fwar. I am very pleased we did not hold back a prospect for a guy playing at replacement level. Just to be completely fair, he has generated .1 WAR this year in 297 PAs.

The team won't be better in 2022 with Miranda or a prospect we get at the deadline at 3B. Lewis might even end up there. We should keep Donaldson If our only focus is 2022. What about 2023 and 2024. Will we be better with Miranda in his second season and $20M to spend on a guy who is not 36/37? IDK with any certainty but I would bet on Miranda and $20M spent elsewhere. I am not betting on sending the same team out there that is getting killed this year. If you keep Donaldson and extend Berrios/Buxton and Rodgers you have very little left for free agents. I am not betting on that plan. I would move Donaldson for a lottery ticket if we can jettison most of his salary. Bring up Miranda whenever he is ready. If we can extend Buxton or Berrios, great. If not we are positioned to add significant free agents when and where it makes sense. BTW ... I agree he is not part of the problem. However, in this case, that does not mean he is part of the solution.

I don't want to speak for Doc but I think you missed his point. I thought he meant they sucked in 2018 and a lot of the guys who were supposed be our core underwhelmed. Then, in 2019, most of them (Berrios / Garver / Kepler Buxton and EVEN Sano had career years. Most of the free agent signings went great and they had a big improvement in the BP. The Twins won 100 games but let's somehow turn that into a scenario that supports the FO is incompetent.

If they can't develop players we are perpetually doomed for certain. It will take a significant contribution from our current SP prospects for this team to even be remotely competitive. We are also doomed if we follow poor strategies. Given there is no chance we can ever contend without good development, I would follow the strategies most likely to produce sustained winning. This includes replacing the people responsible for selecting and/or developing talent. For those who ask "didnt they know Berrios would be a FA when they signed Donaldson". Of course , they did. Donaldson's was a classic "added piece" that would be here for 3 years with Berrios. The plan could not have been to spend big on free agents and extend all of our best players. The money eventually runs out. That's the way it works with a mid market team I don't understand people bitching they won't add expensive pieces when they get into contention and then complain when they do. To be clear there were people here who criticized this signing. I was on the fence because I have always admired Donaldson's game but understood the risk of signing a player past his prime.

No doubt. There will be teams that want Cruz for a playoff run and I would think Pineda will be an even hotter commodity if healthy. Interested in what people think these guys will bring back.

If Cruz is not dealt they failed? Not rendering an opinion here just wanted to clarify.

Actually it's about $17.5 between the rest of this year and 2022.. 2023 is a team option. That said, they still are not going to just cut him and pay the money in a lost year. They will play him hoping he rebounds enough to give them options.

I think we both have it wrong. Baseball Reference says 2 years / $17M with a $6M player option the 3rd year. Of course, the larger point is these kinds of deals do more for building a contender than signing Berrios for $23M/year or whatever it ends up being.

I have heard the broadcasters discuss the team's win record with and without him. He had a big impact even before he started playing like Superman this year. If I thought Buxton could stay healthy there is no doubt I would prefer to keep Buxton. I just don't know if it's realistic to believe he can stay healthy.

Well said! I don't have any great insight into IF they can sign them. I also don't know if they can get the kind of return that makes it worth trading them. What I do know is that if I can't reach an extension agreement AND the trade return is good .... I am taking the return. I am not taking a chance we end up with a comp pick and even that is in question. There are other ways to spend the money where whoever we sign with those dollars + the prospects we get = a better team than keeping Berrios / Buxton. For example, Taijuan Walker who I wanted instead of Happ is getting $23M over the next 3 years and he is having a better year than Berrios. The incremental $15M could be invested in one of the top SS free agents.

I wish we really knew if Lewis was a sure thing or even highly probable to stick at SS. Javier still has a ways to go in proving he will not be an offensive liability. Cavaco has shown very little that suggests he is going to make it to the MLB level. Even Lewis has not proven much outside the fall league. IMO, we have a few guys that might be average at the position but with all the great SS in this league the guys we have now are not likely to put us on equal ground at SS unless Lewis puts it all together. He may very well end up in CF and he might not be all that great offensively and BTW I am generally an optimist.. At this moment ... I might rank Miranda as our best prospect among position players if we consider Kirilloff and Larnach to have graduated from prospect status..

I am sincerely interested to hear your perspective on why the return would be better in the off-season. Obviously, there are more suitors. However, if we were in contention this year and expected to be in contention next year, would you find more value in having Berrios or someone like him for this year’s playoff run as well as the entirety of next season or just next season? While I appreciate the value in demand, I think personnel decisions have become much more sophisticated in terms of value proposition. In other words, demand will not drive price much beyond the perceived value proposition. Obviously, demand pushes price to a degree but I think the best POTENTIAL return is this deadline while fully acknowledging the right deal might not exist with a limited number of interested teams.

This all makes sense if you can extend Berrios / Buxton on reasonable deals. Unreasonable (overpays) are not a great formula to building a contender, especially when one of the players is prone to injury. So, what do you do if Berrios wont sign for less than 6/160 and Buxton wants 6/180 or whatever number you deem to be a significant overpay? Do you just pay an insane number? Do you gamble you can sign them when they hit free agency. For me these answers have as much to do with what is offered for them. Walking away from Pearson (or similar) + another decent prospect as well as the same kind of return for Buxton is very likely a huge mistake if you can't resign Berrios / Buxton when they hit free agency.

I did not think a top 10 prospect for Berrios sounded right but the trade simulator shows that pretty even? I would love to get a prospect like him instead of letting Berrios walk next year. Pearson is ready now. I think our chances of developing a team that can be back in contention soon improve with the addition of that type of prospect.

Makes me wonder if they just promoted his replacement to AAA and wanted to give him a start or two in St. Paul. IDK if Winder is ready and I don't want them pushing him because the big league starting staff is a mess. Just run Jax out there until whatever they are ready to execute something else.

Berrios is not our best player, at least not according to Fwar. He has never been our best player. He had one year where he was among the highest Fwar. That was 2019 when there were 4 other players with slightly more or slightly less. Any team where Berrios is the best player is highly unlikely to be a contender. I guess if you had 12 or 15 guys playing at his level, you might have a contender but generally it might be a sign it’s time for a new plan. Perhaps more to the point, I just listed the teams that lost their best player (or two) and got better. There are many other examples like Chicago who without question traded their best player(s) and built a better team. There are numerous other examples throughout history. Apparently the norm for sports fans is to just ignore any hard fact that gets in the way of what they like to believe. There is an old lyric “there is none so blind as he who will not see”. Sports fans can ignore even the most blatant of examples if it suits their preferred narrative.