Major League Ready

You have picked a couple rather extreme anomalies. You have established a team could payout these amounts. You can also personally spend more than you make in a given year. It does not make it a sustainable way to succeed. You also omitted a crucial piece of information. How did Baltimore and Kansas City do those years with record payrolls? KC was 80-82 and Baltimore was 75-87 good for last place. You also failed to mention that the Padres averaged under $72M a year for the last 15 years and spent over $100M twice. $110M in 2015 and $104M in 2019. I think they banked enough cash to go wild for a year. Also, the Padres team is what it is as a result of great drafting and development, including the trades they were able to make as a result of an extremely deep prospect pool. So, the Padres are much more of an example of what you arguing against than for. I guess we could add that KC did not have a true Ace when they won the WS. We could add that Baltimore did not have a true ace either during their run. They had a rotation of 2s and 3s. We could also look at how much other small market teams that DO RATE amongst the lowest team ERA and see how they are doing it. Tampa Bays top paid SP is $6.5M. They traded away a Cy Young pitcher and let their top SP in terms of WAR walk in free agency. Oakland's top paid SP is paid $6M. They do have a RP they are paying $11M but he has not completed an inning this year. Their top two SPs (WAR) they got by trading away an established player for a prospect. Their 3rd SP in terms of WAR they got for "cash considerations". Even the Dodgers with all their revenue ... How did they acquire their 3 top SPs, They drafted and developed them. I guess the point is your evidence of the need to spend big to get an ace (or win) is full of holes. You went looking for examples of spending instead of looking for examples of winning.

Pretty reasonable synopsis. I have run the numbers. It's possible to put together the team you elude too above IF Sano and Donaldson's are moved at close to 100%. This is the part I don't think is realistic. It would take $185M with them on the payroll and that's not happening. I am using $13M in the BP and $22.5M to add the caliber SP we would probably need to contend as well as 22.5M for a SS. That won't come close to getting one of the very top guys but it did not want to get carried away with the amounts. I would like to see them trade Donaldson this year and eat most of this year's salary and 35-40% next year with the new team picking up full salary in 2023. That would make it feasible to move him. Would the Met's be more interested if trading for him did not put them over the LT threshold? Probably given the escalators and the likelihood they are over next year. Sano is a different story. The only way he could be moved at full salary is if he catches fire the rest of the season.

Looks like posturing to me. He is telling fans they want to compete and other teams it's going to take a lot to get one of our impact assets. I guess that's the way the game is played.

I would sure hope he understood this several weeks ago. Frankly, I would be more concerned if he is not properly motivated by pride and competition regardless of fear of being replaced. There have been question marks regarding make-up since he was in the minor leagues. Just not they guy that should be extended, IMO. However, I have to admit that I was impressed at how much his approach improved in 2019 and the results that came with it.

Could be that he is using this play to get the best possible offer from the Twins? We shall see.

Seems likely. I have been hoping Sano would break out of this slump for the last month so that there would at least be a chance he could get traded. I never understand extending him but here were are. What are the new waiver rules? Can a team claim him and use him on a playoff roster? At this point I am just hoping to see some pitching prospects can a chance. It would sure boost my confidence in turning this team around if some of our pitching prospects showed well the rest of the year.

Rooker and Ober have done quite well in Milb. Gordon's Milb performance was poor in the early years but he was decent in 2019 and looked much improved this year. He has also looked the part at the MLB level. They are all pretty much perfect examples of players who's role or lack tgereof need to be defined. Sounds to me like you just want to go on with the status quo instead of investing in the future. That's your prerogative. I am interested in finding solutions to building a better team. Apparently, so is Nick. My only quibble is that I share Mike's position that the most important question they answer is related to evaluating prospects that can contribute to starting pitching in 2022.

None of them had had a significant opportunity to do so. Thus, Nicks suggestion this would be good to test during this period that does not matter in the standings. Makes perfect sense to me. Just writing them off because they are not top prospects is really foolish. Have we not learned anything from TB or the multitude of players that have taken off when given an opportunity?

If the reported base amount ($70M) is remotely correct, it's probably a 5 year incentive heavy deal, it's definitely not a 1 year deal. Why would he sign a 1 year extension. He would be much better off to hope he can stay relatively healthy next season and get a nice offer elsewhere. It will be interesting to see if this comes to fruition. He is an elite player and our W/L with and without him can't be denied. We also have nothing in the pipeline that could come anywhere near replacing him unless Lewis were to end up in CF. Not exactly sure how next year gets pieced together but after 2022, I hope for an infield of Kirilloff/Polanco/Lewis/Miranda and an outfield of Kepler/Buxton Larnach for a few years.

I watched the game and his fastball looks to grade 55 maybe 60. He was 94-96 as you mentioned but it is quite straight. However, he was quite dominate with it so maybe it plays up more than I think from first impressions. A better change up would really make him tough. The secondary pitches looked like they need quite a bit of work, especially if there is any chance of him being a starter. However, this is the first game I watched him pitch. How has is off-speed stuff stuff been in other starts?

I am not sure how you could possibly believe this is true. Donaldson and Polanco are $26M. What about Berrios /Maeda/Rodgers/Duffy/Kepler/Buxton/Sano and Garver? I come up with $93M with arbitration estimates and an assumption of first and 2nd year players getting an increase to $600K. My guess it's probably closer to $700K. They could get a very good SP and a SS. The rest would have to be filled by prospects. However, it probably would not be financially feasible to retain any of Berrios/Buxton/Rodgers after 2022. So, it would be an all-in for 22 play.

Thanks for this article. I was unaware. He is the biggest difference maker we have for sure but will he ever stay healthy long enough to impose that ability? I sure as heck do NOT know. We also don't have anyone in the system that's a good replacement unless Lewis ends up in CF. I would not be disappointed if he was extended. The rumor mill should be heating up soon!

The reason for poor attendance is the horrid location of the stadium. It's a nightmare getting there. Is Houston's attendance down having let Cole and Springer go to free agency? How about Boston letting Betts go? How about when they let Lester go? Did attendance go down in St. louis when they Pujlos go. Are you telling us you would rather they hold on to players we know vs developing a consistent winner?

Houston lost Cole / Verlander and Springer. All three far more impactful than Berrios / Rodgers. Since the 2019 season, Tampa lost Morton / Snell and traded two of the top three position players in terms of WAR. Of course, the difference is those teams were great. Barring a small miracle, the Twins are not contending in 2022 with or without them.

Everything came together for them in 2019. They were good but they still were not a serious contender. There were a bunch of question marks in 2019. Several guys had career years. Garver / Polanco / Sano and Kepler had career years. Arraez burst on the seen. The BP was vastly improved. They signed a 39 y/o FA (Cruz). That’s risky and he was phenomenal. Odorizzi was at his best and we got him without giving up anything. 2022 would require everything come together like it did in 2019 but there are some differences. The biggest difference is the FO must choose between keeping assets like Rodgers / Berrios and Buxton or targeting 2023 and beyond. They did not need to risk the future to succeed in 2019. The prospects that would come back from those trades could have a huge impact for several years. Of course, they could all flame out. Odds are some good even very good players would come out of trading these high value assets. It comes down to a couple things. Do you believe we can retain Berrios / Buxton and Rodgers. Do you believe Sano will return to his 2019 form./ How about Kepler / Garver? Will they return to 2019 form? Can Nelson Cruz continue to perform at this level. Can we even sign him with universal DH likely? Can we replace his bat for $13M? Can we completely rebuild the BP in 2022? How will we fill the holes after Berrios / Maeda by opening day 2022? What are the odds we can contend and is it a good idea to go all-in for 2022. If we target 2023, are our odds much better? Retaining Berrios / Buxton / Rodgers is going to require we are top bidder. 2023 probably is not any different if you trade them now. They will be here if the Twins are top bidder. However, taking an approach of developing starting pitching and the BP over the remainder of this year and 2022 has a much better chance of succeeding than piecing together a rotation and a BP in 2022. Targeting 2022 also takes away rotation spots that could be used to develop SPs at this level. The difference is that we have whatever assets we would have traded away chasing contention in 2022 and we have some very good additional assets. Some of them might not be here by 2023 but it’s certainly realistic a couple of them would contribute in 2023. I do not accept the premise we either have to retool for 2022 or go into a full rebuild. If targeting 2023 is the best plan, let’s follow the best plan. I would prefer a “retool” take a year and a half than to pursue a strategy with a high probability of failure, especially when that failure significantly extends the duration of that failure.

Well said! 2022 would require everything come together like it did in 2019 but there are some differences. The biggest difference is the FO must choose between keeping assets like Rodgers / Berrios and Buxton or targeting 2023 and beyond. They did not need to risk the future to succeed in 2019. The prospects that would come back from those trades could have a huge impact for several years. Of course, they could all flame out. Odds are some good even very good players would come out of trading these high value assets.

Never could figure out why anyone thinks spreading negativity is a good idea. Of course, it requires none of the skill or wisdom it takes to come up with finding solutions. The solutions are also much more interesting to discuss.

My question is can they get someone to take Donaldson and most of his contract for a dozen balls and a case of Gatorade. If so, I would prefer to trade them separately because Rodgers will bring back a good prospect. IDK if that is possible but it's preferable IMO.

Other teams have had BP guys who rely on velocity. The Twins had guys like Wisler, Romo, and Thielbar among others. That's going to shape the numbers.

I would agree with you in a normal year. In a lost year, the most important thing is to develop players. If the best place for Larnach to develop is at the MLB level, so be it. I am not sure which approach would be best. IDK his history and I am not aware of what they are working on in practice or how that is going. Earlier I suggested some time in St. Paul might be in order but other posters have made good points as to why he should stay. I am open to either but the decision to stay or go is not short-term based. Keeping him here or sending him down should be based on what's best for Larnach long-term.

If the Phillies spend asset capital on a 500 team it's going to be in the BP. The better trade partner for us is the Mets looking to make sure the Phillies don't catch them.

Agree. Dead last in payroll with a team that had a reasonable shot at competing for the division. They certainly could have afforded to add someone much better than Rosario or Rosario plus an impact bat. They could have spent twice as much and still spent less the Twins.

OK. I am convinced. Actually, I was never of a mindset contrary to what you have been saying. I really just want to believe Refsnyder is breaking out and we are the beneficiaries. Of course, that's not exactly sound thinking giving he has had 62 PAs. He has just been so darn good I want to believe in him and give him a shot.

I don't think anyone here or the Twins don't find value in velocity, especially given their 1st round pick. However, they did pick 26th this year and 27th the year before. They had the same velocity deficit and still had one of the best W/L records. I am not sure we can say with certainty that the "Twins are going to find themselves losing a lot of games" if they don't have as many flame throwers. Also, batters are adjusting to the velocity so will velocity have a diminishing return as hitters adjust? I would love to have our own Jacob DeGrom but so would just about every other team. Guys with that velocity and all the other attributes that make pitchers successful are VERY hard to find. Putting too much weight on that one trait probably does not result in developing a lot of pitching.

It would be great if he adapts to the adjustments the league has made which is to throw him breaking stuff. He has only played 3 games at AAA where he would have seen better breaking balls and was rushed a bit into service. My only worry is setting a player back by shattering their confidence. I think there are pros and cons with putting a player in this position if they re not truly ready. I would rather weatch games with him playing but I don't want to mess up his development. There is also value in further evaluation of Garlick and Refsntder. In Garlick's case, he has proven himself at AAA. Refsnyder is just a really nice surprise. It sure would be nice for us to have a Max Muncy type of find. Anyway, sending Larnach down for a little while might be a way to maximize our assets but there is more than one way to skin this cat. Larnach having the most ceiling, the team should take care of him first. I guess the could option Garlick. He has an option left Refsnyder is out of options.