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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    The Mets would be a better trade partner unless St. Louis was willing to give up Liberatore. I doubt they would. He seems to be close to major league ready. A prospect like him would make me feel quite good about are chances to rebuild/retool and get into serious contention soon.
  2. Major League Ready
    3 of our 4 top SP prospects out really sucks! The development of these 3 is a big factor in "re-tooling" our roster.
  3. Major League Ready
    Why should one company have to give revenue to a competitor so that competitors employees can get get paid more? How is that even remotely fair to the large market teams. Why is it so hard for you to understand this is a business? Why don't the highest paid players share their income with lower paid players? That makes about as much sense. Player compensation has risen at an incredible rate for 50+ years. Things are just fine as is. Raise 1st year salary to 800K, 2nd year to 900K and 3rd year to $1M. Leave the rest the way it is or perhaps make the 3rd year arbitration eligible. I don't want our team or teams with lesser revenue to be at an even bigger disadvantage. The one other thing I would change would be MilB comp and in a big way. Max signing bonus would be $1M for 1st overall and the amount decreases by 2% per pick. Milb payroll is increased equal to the amount formally used for bonuses. With this change they could pay Milb players and average of $85K. It could be something like 75K for A, 85Kof A+/AA and $100K for AAA.
  4. Major League Ready
    What they do with service time is going to be very interesting. The big market teams might not mind from a competitive standpoint but revenue from gate sharing is going to be hurt if parity gets worse. Oakland and Tampa have managed to field competitive teams but the rest of the league is putting more value on prospects. I would think the small market teams would absolutely dig in there heals on keeping something close to what we have now. If those teams lost a year of service it's going to be even harder for them to compete. In our case, Buxton and Berrios would be gone next year.
  5. Major League Ready
    His contract has bonuses for innings and starts which make the $9M very probable unless he is injured a significant portion of the year. When forecasting the proper methodology is the most likely number.
  6. Major League Ready
    I could see them moving him up after the deadline if by some miracle they trade Donaldson. I am assuming he would not start the season at the MLB level. That said hopefully the undertone of this is my hope came through. A man can dream.
  7. Major League Ready
    I like it but there is one other thing I would love to see. That's Miranda here early in 2022 to take over 3B. He hit two more HRS today and his OPS is now 948. I am really cheering for this guy to continue his current success and get even better. He looks like the Twins minor league break-out player of 2021. That would be a real boost. It would great if Gordon continues to push him for that honor and DeLa Trinidad is all the sudden a hitting machine too. He is batting .328 with a 946 OPS. We could also have a fantastic bench with great flexibility next year. If Miranda did take over 3rd at some point we potentially have Arraez / Refsnyder / Gordon as bench players.
  8. Major League Ready
    The best trade they did was Odorizzi for Polacios, Especially given they resigned Polacios and he is doing well. You could argue the Maeda trade was their best trade but that one could still go the way of great for us or bad for us. The one with the most upside is probably Duran given he was traded for a rental but it's also possible he could bust. Of course, they got DeLa Trinidad in that deal. He has not looked like much until this year but he is hitting 319. We also did not give up much for Valimont or Rijo. They may not ever see the big leagues but those trades could also be very positive in our favor.
  9. Major League Ready
    It's probably about 100 days too early. The relative progress in developing starting pitching and BP options for that matter are likely to weigh heavily into how much the spend and what they spend it on. Next year is sunk IMO if they don't develop two SPs that can be mid rotation types or better and they will need to be relied on next year. I don't consider Dobnak to be a reliable option to even fill a spot but he certainly could become a decent back of the rotation option. If they don't develop two SPs this year I think they have to hope Maeda bounces back and they land an free agent SP as good or better than Berrios if they are going to win the division and have any shot in the post season. They would need to do something with the BP because that group won't cut it.
  10. Major League Ready
    It was not meant to be a comp. It's a concept directed at the comments that some here made that it's incompetent to trade away good players. Of course Sale was a superior asset. That's not even remotely the point. The point is that Buxton and Berrios are players that SHOULD bring a good return and I prefaced the scenarios I laid out with IF we got impact prospects the years of 2023 and beyond were very likely better than if we kept them. I believe he brings a top 40-75 prospect. Keep him if not.
  11. Major League Ready
    Yes. The reality is that the large markets have a very significant advantage in free agency. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens in the CBA. Teams have caught on to prospect value so even the larger market teams are far more reluctant to part with prospects. They are not paying for rentals. Somehow the league needs to promote parity and the players are going to want to somehow loosen free agency terms.
  12. Major League Ready
    That seems reasonable. I just expect that some players are not willing to leave any money at all on the table. Engaging the free agency process without questions is more likely to present the highest possible offer. And, as I have said previously, many players, especially of this profile (good but not elite) have demonstrated they believe they are worth much more than they actually get in free agency.
  13. Major League Ready
    The assumption he will sign for "somewhere between 5/80 and 6/125" is a bold assumption. If he thinks he can get 6/125, there are plenty of players that are not signing for a dollar less. We also need to acknowledge there are a lot of players who start out with absolutely wild salary demands. Free agency is the opportunity for all the highest revenue teams to bid on your services. There are lots of players who are not budging without the benefit of that process so to assume they can convinced to forego free agency is a wild assumption.
  14. Major League Ready
    The point was that they got a return very soon after the trade. They were not going to compete for a couple years regardless of ifthe kept Sale which is why they traded him. I don't believe the it's realistic to believe the Twins will compete next year. This board has been wildly optimistic for as long as I have been here. To suggest the Twins won't compete for 4 or 5 years if they trade Berrios makes no sense. The Twins competing or not will be a product of many other things. I do believe we are positioned to rebound in a shorter period of time than the Whitesox but the pitching prospects will need to transition between now and the end of 2022. 2023 and forward . It's kind of this simple ... The Twins can invest the money Berrios is demanding in any number of ways. If he is demanding an over pay, then that money could be spent to make the team better than they would be with Berrios. Plus, IF they can get a top prospect, there is a reasonable chance the team will be significantly better over the next several years as a result. People act as if we are automatically worse. Basically, we break even or get somewhat better by investing elsewhere instead of overpaying for Berrios if the prospect we get washes out. What if the prospect is as good or better. Obviously, the team is much better of in that scenario by trading him and investing elsewhere.
  15. Major League Ready
    What if you can get a player as good or better than Berrios in return that will be ready the 2nd half of 2022 or in 2023 and replace him with one of the players you listed or similar? Isn't that what Tampa Bay would do?
  16. Major League Ready
    Sorry! Post repeated for some reason.
  17. Major League Ready
    They have had 3 seasons given we lost last year so I will reserve judgment. They cobbled together a pretty good group of starters and RPs in 2019 & 2020 despite several years of failing to develop pitchers internally. If Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Enlow / Ober / Winder / Valimont and Sands all fail to assimilate to the MLB level in the next two tears we can say they have failed. Right now we can only observe that they have assembled a group of prospects that are promising.
  18. Major League Ready
    They got Moncada prior the winter between 2016-17 and he played 54 games in 2017 and was full-time in 2018. The equivalent in this case would be a prospect who is playing for us full-time in 2023. Giolito was up in 2017 as well. He just wasnt good until 2019. That trade had a huge impact on them becoming a contender. The Cardinals let Pujlos go after a 90 win season in 2011 and won 97 in 2013. We have been over Tampa letting Snell go. It's very reasonable to believe the Twins could trade for prospect(s) that will be ready in 2023. Anyone who believes this mess is going to be completely turned around next year is welcome to that belief but I believe that is purely fanatical think. They are going to contend again if and when the current SP prospects can contribute significantly to a contender. When that time comes an additional top prospect could be aiding that contention for several years. Tampa understands these principals better than most teams which is why they contend with 1/2 the revenue as most teams.
  19. Major League Ready
    Are you thinking if Duran / Balazovic / Canterino and I will add Winder are close they should keep him or they could let him go if they think these prospects are close? .
  20. Major League Ready
    You do know that Tampa Bay traded away Snell, right. They also lost Morton to free agency. They have the best record in baseball with half the financial resource of many teams. Why. because they understand how to maximize asset return. Boston let's Betts go and many said it was the end of them. They seem to be doing fine to me. Chicago traded away Sale and Eaton because they realized they could not reasonably expect to contend during their tenue. How did that work out? While I would prefer to "dance" with home grown players. I will opt for signing an equivalent outside player if the homegrown player requires a significant overpay. Especially if I can get at top prospect in return. He might flop but he might also be better than Berrios. Now I have two "Berrios equivalent" players for the same price. We could call this the Tampa Bay philosophy.
  21. Major League Ready
    Incorrect. The return is the player(s) they spend the money Berrios would have received plus whatever they get in prospects if they trade him this year. Yes, it's possible the propsects don't pan out. Let's also keep in mind that Tattis Jr. was the return for James Shields. Cane and Escobar came back in the Grienke trade. Moncada and Giolitto in the Chris Sale trade and on and on. Frankly, if you are going to pay him whatever it takes, why not take the prospects now and sign him later or just wait until he becomes a free agent given we know pitchers are prone to injury or the "Mike Hampton" disease old nurse pointed out. We could call it the Jordan Zimmerman or Chris Davis disease or even Albert Pujlos disease or any host of other free agents who were never that great after signing a big deal. I think Mike's question "what if he wants" 6/150 is the underlying reason he has not been signed. How many times do we hear in the off-season, especially high profile players are looking for X and X ends up being 150% of what they were looking for? As I recall JD Martinez started at $200M and got $125. It's quite common. Players see this process as the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and rightfully so. The author's blank check premise is the answer to what is the last thing Tampa Bay would do or most teams for that matter. St. Louis let the great Albert Pujlos walk. Boston with a couple hundred million in incremental revenue as compared to the Twins did not give Betts whatever he wanted and on and on.
  22. Major League Ready
    I think we can reasonably approximate the advantage of height if we can determine how much closer his release point is to plate. That's the difference, right? His height in effect brings the mound closer to the plate. If the average players stride and length provide a release point 57 feet from the plate and he releases 56 feet from the plate the travel time is 98.2% which takes a 92 mph pitch to approximately 94 mph. So, you are very close. Is there also a form of deception or difficulty picking up the pitch given his length? The advantage might be even greater. Your 95-96 seems very reasonable.
  23. Major League Ready
    Anyone consider the possibility Baldelli was doing the opposite of spreadsheet management. Perhaps having been a player he understands the role confidence plays in developing players. Ober performed really well and pulling him when he did was a good way of assuring he gain some confidence from this outing. Was he managing by spreadsheet. I don't know but I know what happens when I assume.
  24. Major League Ready
    Ober just might be the bright spot in a dark year. Sure hope he continues to be part of the solution. Also hoping for another bright spot or two.
  25. Major League Ready
    I was wrong. Would you like to go back on all the times you were not just wrong but dead wrong. I have a long memory starting with your insistence that we must sign Jacoby Ellsbury. Sometimes you need to take a step back when things don't go as planned and things have not gone as planned. Having said this my position has not a 180 it's a regroup for 1 year not a complete rebuild entailing being bad for multiple years. I am simply open to trading Berrios and/or Buxton because in all likelihood doing so significantly improves our odds of contention for the next several. I do strategic planning for a living. and you have a very short-term focus. We are never going to agree. BTW ... I guy that has consistently proposed stuff that would have hurt the team significantly for several years should not throw stones.
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