Major League Ready

It is perplexing. Kepler's inability or refusal to take away the shift by bunting hard down 3rd base drives me crazy. I am half serious when I say I would keep him out of the lineup until he learns to bunt. Not a controlled bunt that takes real skill but just guide the ball within 15 feet of the line. Sano is hard to understand. Why does he continue to flail away at low breaking pitches. Is he incapable of recognizing that pitch? If he just can't hit, he is toast unless he learns to hit it. So, find guys to feed him that type of pitch until he can handle it or find a 2 strike approach or SOMETHING. We all the definition of doing the same thing over and over and expecting the same result. I am not a major league coach so maybe I just my ignorance but I don't understand them allowing these guys to continue with the same approach. What do you think, Mike? Is it too much to expect Kepler to do something to take away the shift that takes so many hits away from Kepler?

Sorry, I don't follow the logic. The Rays make great decisions. However, the Twins front-office is not as skilled. Therefore, the Twins FO should not make the smart decisions the Rays would? Again, we simply disagree. The cities, history, ownership, none of that negates that some strategies are better than others or that our team should do the same smart things the Rays do. If we did, we could also use the incremental revenue we generate to do things the Rays could not do in FA or in terms of retaining players. Have they made great personnel decisions. IDK! In terms of free agents, they have done quite well with the obvious exceptions of Happ. I don't really count Shoemaker because he was a cheap flier that made sense. In terms of trades. Maeda and Odorizzi were quite good. In terms of drafting, again IDK. With all of the injuries it will take until the end of 2022 to make an informed assessment of their drafting and development. Let me once again stress as I have with Mike, if they can execute the strategies most likely to produce a contender, fire the people that are failing and replace them with capable people. This is a pretty straight forward necessity in any organization. The merit of the strategy should dictate the plan. To follow a plan with less merit is an illustration of incompetence. Obviously, this opinion is a result of my experiences. Everyone has had different experiences and many will disagree. We also all weight short and long-term goals differently. Many sports fans put much more weight on the immediate term than I do. I am not willing to risk years of futility for the immediate term and many sports fans would without hesitation. That's going to cause disagreement.

I know it's been said often but all these injuries really suck!

You can't possibly believe I was saying I hope you are wrong to mean I hope they don't contend which is why you did not not quote me. It was very clear from the content I meant I hope you are wrong that they would trade away any future talent to bet on a 2021 team. I also shared that if this were true we would have failed with a great many prospects which would greatly reduce or chances of competing anytime soon. Getting two starters the caliber of Berrios/Maeda would require wiping out the farm system. Let me be clear, I think that would be wildly incompetent on the part of the FO. I was also clear I addressed the folly in a mid market team relying on free agency in general. In this case, signing a front of the rotation SP would preclude extending Berrios/Buxton. The post 22 salaries would not be sustainable even if they were great and revenue rebounded. It would be an absolute financial disaster if things did not work out. Let's try a real simple swing at our disagreement. Would the Rays trade away top prospects if they had the twins roster to bet on 2022? I don't expect you to acknowledge the point so let me answer... Not in a million years. Would the pass on the opportunity to get a nice return for Berrios/Rodgers/Buxton if they felt they could not extend them. History is quite clear in terms of what they would do. The difference in our positions is that your focus appears to be 2022 only. You are looking at the problem under the lens of how we do this in 2022. I am looking at the situation and saying what is the best path back. I do not believe trading away our future to bet on 2022 is a reasonable plan. As a matter of fact, I think it's a sure way of mitigating future success. As I said, you are welcome to your opinion. I have a very different opinion. We will have to wait and see what the guys who make these decisions believes to be the best approach.

I hope you are wrong. By far the most effective way to build a team is by producing starting pitching by drafting or trading for SPs before they are established. When you are a mid or small market team it's essential. The Twins at least have enough revenue that they can supplement a home grown staff with a free agent. IMO, the failure to develop homegrown pitching is one of the primary reasons the Twins have not had a deep playoff run in 30 years I also do not align with your pessimism where are SP prospects are concerned. As of now, I think there is very good reason to believe Winder and Balazovic can be impact SPs. Duran has a lower ceiling (RP) but he probably has the highest ceiling. Canterino / Enlow / Sands all seem to have mid rotation potential. Ober is a bit of a mystery to me. I would think he can be a solid 4 if he can maintain the plus command he has been known for in the minors. There are a couple other guys with potential too. That’s a lot of guys with MLB potential to dismiss. I also am not in the camp that seems to assume trades for SPs always work out. There were a lot of people ardent about trading for Snell who is now boast an ERA of 5.29. For the record, I don’t think it is remotely accurate to say the Twins passed on Wheeler. Wheeler was their #1 target. He was very firm in his desire to be in the NE. Fans sure to like to ignore any information that does not fit the narrative of we should have signed XYZ player. For example, Wheeler did not want to here or the fact that Philly's strategy which is what you are promoting has failed. They have been at or below 500 during the stretch where they signed Harper / Degrom / Wheeler / others and traded & resigned Realmuto. They can't make it work with $100M of incremental revenue on the Twins so is this really the best strategy for the Twins?

Pretty much irrelevant. I said "They did not trade anyone in 2017 that was going to bring a return with much probability of sticking. Can you look at any of those players and say you thought they were really good prospects." Well, was Tyler Watson a prospect with a high probability of sticking? You ignored the point because you want to complain where there is not much to complain about. I suspect they value the International money they got but that too is not the point. Kintzler had a 5.4 SO/9 and the return for him was modest. So, let's try again. Can you look at any of those players and say you thought they were really good prospects? It would be refreshing if you actually answer the question I posed. If they trade Cruz or Pineda or Rodgers for a prospect of the same status, then complain. In this case you did not even stop to think about the prospects that did not turn into MLB players. Seems like you latched on to something you felt made a point. A point which it would appear you did not come to objectively.

Some sports fans just bask in the belief they know more than the people in charge. If he is doing his job correctly, we will never know what goes on out of the public eye. I have no idea if he is doing a good job on a number of issues. I also have no idea if he is doing a good job.

Time to promote Varland.

Larnach was 8th on the team in wRC+ at 96. The league has already discovered his weakness and he will need to adjust.

The list of guys that never made it to "the next level" is endless. I doubt the problem is massive failure throughout the entire league to develop players, especially the last few years. The development effort and practices have been advanced and intensified. It's always possible something different could have been done to help but these three were not top prospects who failed to reach their expected level. Fans just feel better blaming it on "management".

He was never all that great at going to the opposite field. It drives me crazy that he and the coaching staff allow teams to put on an extreme shift. Rod Carew would have batted 900 against that shift. It drives me crazy that he can't take advantage of the enormous hole they leave him. He would not even need to control the distance. He could just bunt as hard as he likes. Had he learned to bunt, he would have negated the shift and his average would be considerably higher.

What does that look like Financially? Donaldson and Sano is roughly $30M. However, I can't imagine we can move Donaldson without eating salary. Are Pineda/Cruz gone. Even with Donaldson's full salary gone, that would be $40-50M cut. Are we replacing them with rookies? Add at least $30M for Buxton / Berrios / Rodgers leaves us $10-20M absolute best case scenario which is not likely. The SSs in next years class are going to be $25-33M. I am not sure any single SP is going to make this group a contender is going to be in the $30M neighborhood. So, we are talking about adding $30-40M (probably $40M) + arbitration increases in 2023. The rotation would have to be filled out by prospects in 2022 and I just don't see a free agent SP and one of the top SS being viable financially. The net of what you have described is to replace Pineda with a better FA and sign a SS. We lose Cruz / Sano. Losing Cruz will hurt. Upgrading Pineda and SS will help. Make us a contender help. I highly doubt it.

You are not exactly framing this in an unbiased manner. They did not trade anyone in 2017 that was going to bring a return with much probability of sticking. Can you look at any of those players and say you thought they were really good prospects. The interesting thing about that year is they went from buyers to sellers. The did give away a player (Ynoa) who I would not mind having back. The 2018 group has not produced yet but we did not have a Milb season last year and there are quite a few decent prospects that came from trading rentals and one good BP arm.

I can't imagining them rushing him. What would be the purpose. This season is lost. What I am hoping is that he demonstrates he is ready. Really hoping for Balazovic and Duran to step it up as well. I would be great if they were battling for a spot but the landscape is pretty wide open. Rosario was one of my favorite Twins. Then, he did not adapt to the league and he made a lot of mistakes players of his experience should not. He has not been good since the first half of 2018 and I was quite firm in the need to let him go. Since the 2018 tradeline he has produced a grand total of 2.2 Fwar. I am very pleased we did not hold back a prospect for a guy playing at replacement level. Just to be completely fair, he has generated .1 WAR this year in 297 PAs.

The team won't be better in 2022 with Miranda or a prospect we get at the deadline at 3B. Lewis might even end up there. We should keep Donaldson If our only focus is 2022. What about 2023 and 2024. Will we be better with Miranda in his second season and $20M to spend on a guy who is not 36/37? IDK with any certainty but I would bet on Miranda and $20M spent elsewhere. I am not betting on sending the same team out there that is getting killed this year. If you keep Donaldson and extend Berrios/Buxton and Rodgers you have very little left for free agents. I am not betting on that plan. I would move Donaldson for a lottery ticket if we can jettison most of his salary. Bring up Miranda whenever he is ready. If we can extend Buxton or Berrios, great. If not we are positioned to add significant free agents when and where it makes sense. BTW ... I agree he is not part of the problem. However, in this case, that does not mean he is part of the solution.

I don't want to speak for Doc but I think you missed his point. I thought he meant they sucked in 2018 and a lot of the guys who were supposed be our core underwhelmed. Then, in 2019, most of them (Berrios / Garver / Kepler Buxton and EVEN Sano had career years. Most of the free agent signings went great and they had a big improvement in the BP. The Twins won 100 games but let's somehow turn that into a scenario that supports the FO is incompetent.

If they can't develop players we are perpetually doomed for certain. It will take a significant contribution from our current SP prospects for this team to even be remotely competitive. We are also doomed if we follow poor strategies. Given there is no chance we can ever contend without good development, I would follow the strategies most likely to produce sustained winning. This includes replacing the people responsible for selecting and/or developing talent. For those who ask "didnt they know Berrios would be a FA when they signed Donaldson". Of course , they did. Donaldson's was a classic "added piece" that would be here for 3 years with Berrios. The plan could not have been to spend big on free agents and extend all of our best players. The money eventually runs out. That's the way it works with a mid market team I don't understand people bitching they won't add expensive pieces when they get into contention and then complain when they do. To be clear there were people here who criticized this signing. I was on the fence because I have always admired Donaldson's game but understood the risk of signing a player past his prime.

No doubt. There will be teams that want Cruz for a playoff run and I would think Pineda will be an even hotter commodity if healthy. Interested in what people think these guys will bring back.

If Cruz is not dealt they failed? Not rendering an opinion here just wanted to clarify.

Actually it's about $17.5 between the rest of this year and 2022.. 2023 is a team option. That said, they still are not going to just cut him and pay the money in a lost year. They will play him hoping he rebounds enough to give them options.

I think we both have it wrong. Baseball Reference says 2 years / $17M with a $6M player option the 3rd year. Of course, the larger point is these kinds of deals do more for building a contender than signing Berrios for $23M/year or whatever it ends up being.

I have heard the broadcasters discuss the team's win record with and without him. He had a big impact even before he started playing like Superman this year. If I thought Buxton could stay healthy there is no doubt I would prefer to keep Buxton. I just don't know if it's realistic to believe he can stay healthy.

Well said! I don't have any great insight into IF they can sign them. I also don't know if they can get the kind of return that makes it worth trading them. What I do know is that if I can't reach an extension agreement AND the trade return is good .... I am taking the return. I am not taking a chance we end up with a comp pick and even that is in question. There are other ways to spend the money where whoever we sign with those dollars + the prospects we get = a better team than keeping Berrios / Buxton. For example, Taijuan Walker who I wanted instead of Happ is getting $23M over the next 3 years and he is having a better year than Berrios. The incremental $15M could be invested in one of the top SS free agents.

I wish we really knew if Lewis was a sure thing or even highly probable to stick at SS. Javier still has a ways to go in proving he will not be an offensive liability. Cavaco has shown very little that suggests he is going to make it to the MLB level. Even Lewis has not proven much outside the fall league. IMO, we have a few guys that might be average at the position but with all the great SS in this league the guys we have now are not likely to put us on equal ground at SS unless Lewis puts it all together. He may very well end up in CF and he might not be all that great offensively and BTW I am generally an optimist.. At this moment ... I might rank Miranda as our best prospect among position players if we consider Kirilloff and Larnach to have graduated from prospect status..

I am sincerely interested to hear your perspective on why the return would be better in the off-season. Obviously, there are more suitors. However, if we were in contention this year and expected to be in contention next year, would you find more value in having Berrios or someone like him for this year’s playoff run as well as the entirety of next season or just next season? While I appreciate the value in demand, I think personnel decisions have become much more sophisticated in terms of value proposition. In other words, demand will not drive price much beyond the perceived value proposition. Obviously, demand pushes price to a degree but I think the best POTENTIAL return is this deadline while fully acknowledging the right deal might not exist with a limited number of interested teams.