Major League Ready

I agree with you completely on this perspective. What I am suggesting is that it's quite probable that Buxton and his agent have a different perspective. I know I would not advise him to take $100M today and it's also really common for a player to be looking for a much higher payday than they get. At the very least they are thinking that if he can play at a high level for the next year and a half he is going to cash a much MUCH larger check. So, why sign now when the $100M level is basically assured. What did JD Martinez want compared to what he ultimately got. In this case you have a guy who is as good as anyone in MLB right now. I would not be even remotely surprised if he has a visions of a $200M payday. He is NOT signing now for $100M IMO, the only way we sign Buxton is by being the highest bidder in the free agency process. So, why not take a elite prospect if we can get one now and join that bidding process when it comes time. Would the Rays let him go for a comp pick. Absolutely not.

No. They have not duplicated Tampa's player identification and development and they certainly have not made the smart trades for players that have not been established at the ML level. It most certainly is possible. Every other team in the league (even top markets) are striving to make these improvements. If we don't get as good or nearly as good we are destined for mediocrity or even failure. Therefore, for the Twins FO to pursue other less productive strategies would be the height of incompetence. BTW ... I have had numerous mid level managers tell me they can't do something. When that something was crucial I recommended to senior management that those people be removed if they cant or wont get on board. That's what Falvey should do with anyone who is not capable of bringing the Twins to the level of the Rays in these functions.

Miranda with 5 hits. Wow. He is killing it. I noticed he has been playing 1st of late. Is this guy going to be a super utility player? I was hoping he could handle 3B. Anyone care to weigh in on where he will end up defensively.

Buxton is having a better year than George Springer ever had and it's not particularly close. He is even having a better year than Betts ever had. Buxton and his agent are thinking he is a breakout super star. I can't imagine they would even consider a $100M at this point. They are thinking they are in line for a giant payday. Many people have a very self-sided view of their value. He is not thinking that his injuries should negate his value. He is thinking those were fluke injuries. He is not thinking about the way he has played throughout his career. He is thinking this is his new norm. Maybe he will continue to be something close. Regardless, he is not accepting a deal that does not pay him like a superstar. He can just play it out and he is going to get $100M+. If he plays it out anywhere near the way he is playing it's $200M+ at least in his mind. The only way this team sign Buxton at this point is by winning the bid once he becomes a free agent. The chances might be slightly better if we kept him but there is no way I would pass on a return that included a really good SP prospect or perhaps a top 50 guy that can play SS or CF.

I agree with everything you said but you have changed the context of the discussion. Many complain non stop that we dumpster dive while ignoring the successful mid to low revenue teams consistently employ this strategy. Other complained allowing any of veterans to leave is sure to result in catastrophe. We already have one. Doing the same thing while spending more on current players so that our free agent spending has to be less does not sound like a great plan. The argument we can't develop like Tampa drives me nuts. The implication of that thought process is that we should follow other practices that are know to be inferior especially when considering our modest revenue. I can't tell you how many times my team was hired to reorganize companies where this kind of thinking prevailed. Get better at the best practices instead of following less successful practices. I would add we don't know how much our player identification and development has improved. Pitchers like Winder, Ober and Varland coming from later rounds gives me hope. There are quite a few other guys starting to look like they could play at the MLB level too. Position players breaking out like Miranda and Palacios are a good sign and it looks like they did a pretty good job developing Kirillorr, Larnach, and Jeffers. Those guys looked like MLB players in short order.

Yep. Hear ya. I might get curious enough to track this down. Part of the disconnect is that we have to include all players to get averages. Teams will probably have something like 36-40 guys play and many of them qualify for lifetime benefits. Plus, just the fact that they are lifetime changes the math wildly. The auto makers found out these benefits really added up. In this case, you have employees retiring very young and receiving benefits for a very longtime. Those benefits cost 40X the annual amount if they are collected for 40 years. BTW, I remember the article documented the details so I accepted it at the time but I would not be surprised if this was not entirely accurate. The average is actually 38%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.nr0.htm#:~:text=Wages and salaries averaged %2433.20,and accounted for 38.1 percent.

I got the 11% from an article. I am not going to search for it. You are absolutely right about how those taxes are engaged and the total is far less than a typical company. 25% would be quite low. Our clients typically spent 30%+ on taxes/benefits. One assessment we did for a state government was almost 40%. However, in this case you have ignored other benefits like lifetime medical and I am not sure how their pension is funded and those costs are fairly significant. I can only tell you I recall the article breaking it out and to the best of my recollection it was 11.5%.

Actually, I would hope it's the first question anyone with a financial education or experience managing a P&L would ask. To omit a portion of payroll expense when speaking of payroll expense is without question negligent. It might have happened but it should not have. They did not teach us this in an MBA program. This is finance 101. Maybe 201.

Please enlighten me. This is a very important clarification where the team budget is concerned. What part do I have wrong? Does every other company in America pays SS and Medicare but teams don't. Do MLB teams get their medical coverage for free? I mean players get medical benefits for life. Who pays for this. How about other retirement benefits? If you want to take a stand my position is ignorant you should be prepared to prove you point with facts and don't say let's just move on when you realize you are not too well informed.

Apparently you are confusing employee tax deductions with employer paid payroll expense. Social Security and Medicare taxes are imposed on both the employee at a flat rate of 6.2% for social security and 1.45% for Medicare and the employer 's single flat rate of 6.2% and 1.45%, respectively, creating a combined FICA tax rate of 15.3% (12.4% for Social Security and 2.9% for Medicare). Self-employed individuals are responsible for paying the entire 15.3% tax themselves. Teams also pay medical benefits and a retirement fund. This is an example of one of those things where fans don't have all the information and get bent out of shape about something they simply don't fully don't understand.

You don't understand. Every company pays Payroll taxes regardless of their level of profit.

I watched the Wichita game last night. Not so sure Winder is not becoming our top SP prospects. It sure seems to me like he and Balazovic have top of the rotation stuff. I also think that Ober has always had plus command and the odds of him being a solid contributor for the next several years is quite good. There are a couple other guys like Varland that could end up being nice surprises.

The first thing that comes to my mind is did he mean 50% with the inclusion of payroll tax and benefits which is a touch over 11% the last time I saw something written on the topic. Guys in charge of the P&L or that have significant influence on the P&L don't omit things. So, my guess is that if that was said, he meant total payroll cost and player salary is roughly 89% of that number. Fans hear or read this statement and assumes a payroll of 50% of revenue means salaries equal to 50%. Many people have absolutely clung to this 50+% of revenue sound bite. Salaries at 52% plus taxes and benefits equate to roughly 63% of revenue. Operating costs have definitely gone up since that soundbite. What I have seen written about operating costs suggest the average is around 1/3 of revenue. That's 96% of revenue which is why you are seeing salaries closer to 40% of revenue.

It’s quite interesting to look at how other front offices approached their off-season. What did Boston do after losing a superstar to free agency in 2020 and finishing last? Did they use their considerable financial resource to extend their CFer. No they let him go to free agency. Did they sign any expensive FA? No. They signed veteran SP Garret Richards and Enrique Hernandez for $7M. The rest were bargain signs like our old friend Marwin Gonzales. I bet many Boston fans thought the FO was incompetent. Where are they now? 1st place in the AL East. What did Tampa do after their WS run? Did they trade for a SP to replace Morton or did they sign a big free agent. No. They traded away Blake Snell and signed Chris Archer for $6M and 6 other guys for a total of $12M. I bet their fans were having a fit. Where are they? ½ game out of 1st place. How about Houston. They lost Cole the year before and now Spring. Did they trade for big name SPs or did they get them via free agency. Neither. They resigned Brantley and signed Odorizzi for under $8M. I have to believe the Twins would have given $8M in a heartbeat which just goes to show it can be very difficult to resign players who believe they can get more. Houston did sign a fairly expensive RP in Pedro Baex for $6.25M. He has missed the entire season so far. I bet even after all their success some of their fans were critical. Where are they now? Best record in the AL. How about Oakland? They lost Hendricks and Semien to free agency as well as De La Stella, Minor, and Grossman. Who did they add? Rosenthall who has not played and a half dozen guys for 3.5M or less. Those dumpster diving cheap skates. Bet they are at the bottom of the standings. Nope. 14 games over 500. I won’t go over the NL. The point is that a fair number of fans cling to spending big and making block buster trades. We should pay more attention to how winners are built, especially among teams with average or less than average revenue. The trades that count most for average revenue teams are more often than not trades for players that have not been established. Give me Tatis Jr. for James Shields or Bauer for whoever he got traded for or the haul that Seattle got for Cano and Diaz.

My guess would be $55M. The problem with that approach is that we our starting point is the same roster that has not gone it done but now spending an incremental $35M. Of course, this reduces the payroll available for free agents. We would have to move Donaldson in my estimation because the reality is that it would probably cost close to $50M just for Berrios/Buxton to get them to forego free agency. So, that's $70M not $50M for three players if you can't move Donaldson. Nobody is taking him at full salary so we would have to retain part of that salary. No easy or obvious answers here.

I like this idea. Move him to AAA and see how he does. I don't believe in pushing guys before they are ready but maybe he could come up in September for a look. Can anyone comment on how his defense has progressed?

For me it all depends on what is offered back in a trade. This team needs to developing pitching if we are ever going to seriously contend. That's not happening by the start of next season. 2022 is a long shot even with good free agent signings. Buxton has to play the way he has this year and stay healthy. Donaldson has to play better and stay healthy. They need to do something at SS. Replace 3 SPs and rebuild the BP. Sano needs to get his act together and I can't see them bringing back Cruz. That money would have to be allocated to pitching. That's not a situation that is likely to produce a contender. The good news is they could be back in 2023 and beyond. This is an excellent chance to rebuild in a short period of time. Going for it next year could have a significant long-term cost. They have the trade capital in players that won't be here after 2022 to return the type of prospects that can make a difference. They did well in the 2018 deadline but this year they have considerably better assets to trade. It could be a huge boost.

How has Miranda done defensively this year? Fangraphs rate his fielding below average. I just got Milb TV so I can see these things for myself but I have not seen him play yet. He is going to have a nice move up prospect boards especially if his defense has improved.

Josh Winder looks the most ready to me. Perhaps they give him an audition. It seems from the chatter Barnes could get a shot too. I have watched a couple of his starts and his stuff does not look like it will play at the MLB level but I would love to be wrong.

The Mets would be a better trade partner unless St. Louis was willing to give up Liberatore. I doubt they would. He seems to be close to major league ready. A prospect like him would make me feel quite good about are chances to rebuild/retool and get into serious contention soon.

3 of our 4 top SP prospects out really sucks! The development of these 3 is a big factor in "re-tooling" our roster.

Why should one company have to give revenue to a competitor so that competitors employees can get get paid more? How is that even remotely fair to the large market teams. Why is it so hard for you to understand this is a business? Why don't the highest paid players share their income with lower paid players? That makes about as much sense. Player compensation has risen at an incredible rate for 50+ years. Things are just fine as is. Raise 1st year salary to 800K, 2nd year to 900K and 3rd year to $1M. Leave the rest the way it is or perhaps make the 3rd year arbitration eligible. I don't want our team or teams with lesser revenue to be at an even bigger disadvantage. The one other thing I would change would be MilB comp and in a big way. Max signing bonus would be $1M for 1st overall and the amount decreases by 2% per pick. Milb payroll is increased equal to the amount formally used for bonuses. With this change they could pay Milb players and average of $85K. It could be something like 75K for A, 85Kof A+/AA and $100K for AAA.

What they do with service time is going to be very interesting. The big market teams might not mind from a competitive standpoint but revenue from gate sharing is going to be hurt if parity gets worse. Oakland and Tampa have managed to field competitive teams but the rest of the league is putting more value on prospects. I would think the small market teams would absolutely dig in there heals on keeping something close to what we have now. If those teams lost a year of service it's going to be even harder for them to compete. In our case, Buxton and Berrios would be gone next year.

His contract has bonuses for innings and starts which make the $9M very probable unless he is injured a significant portion of the year. When forecasting the proper methodology is the most likely number.