Major League Ready

You said a lot in this one sentence. It's hard to "lose" in a trade when trading a rental in a lost season. (context) If you trade away a good player with multiple years of control, you need to get something back. If you trade average players that are rentals, you are going to get low probability players. Mike, is right, I recall the ridicule when Ynoa was traded for anyone who had a problem with them trading a way such a player. Now we are going to ridicule the FO because of such trades when the players are just about to reach the ML level. What's worse is that these trades have significant potential to work out very much in our favor so drawing a conclusion at this point is self-indulgent. And, using WAR to evaluate trading away a current asset looks like a very bias way of trying to assert something that is yet to be determined. It would not be offensive if it was not used to criticize and assert incompetence. It's bad form to provide obviously flawed analysis while criticizing others.

Cleveland has lost 9 straight and they are 8 games back. I doubt they are buyers. I seriously doubt they would trade Rodgers to the Whitesox.

Cron was 14 th in Fwar among position on that team with .3 WAR. Rosario was 11th with 1.2 Fwar and Schoop was 10th with 1.3. You are contributing a turn around of approximately 40 wins/losses to 3 players that produced 2.8 Fwar. I would add that Sano had 2.7 Fwar which is basically as much as the 3 of them combined. Kepler has 4.4 FWAR. I would say the drop in production among Sano and Kepler is far more impactful than losing Rosario / Schoop and Cron. Of course, there is always the fact that Rosario is now playing at replacement level so he would a detriment if he were still here. A lot of things have contributed to a poor Twins seasons. The three players you listed are not in the top 10, IMO. They don't need to dump Simmons. He can be a place holder until it is determined if Lewis / Javier / etc can replace him. However, he has been worth .1 WAR. Offense counts for SSs too. They will find a different solution next year. Miranda wont be as good as Donaldson next year but Miranda in his 2nd year vs a 37 year old Donaldson is 2023 is hard to say. What we can say is that Miranda and $20M invested elsewhere is probably a better combination.

I am thinking that they would have extended him by now if he was willing. Of course, I have no way of knowing and that's why I have left other options open. There are a lot of players who want every dime they can get. Waiting for free agency has a risk component for the player but many of them are willing to take that risk. I really like Berrios. How many pitchers have his durability. He is still young and he has performed quite well. However, if he wants to be elsewhere, he will be.

Just curious what are the three reasons the twins went from 100 wins to the 100 losses you are projecting?

You read my mind. After, I listed what are basically assumptions, I was going to add the FO could take another direction if they assume they can establish two MLB pitchers this year. That's what I was thinking at the start of this year before we had so many injuries. At this point, I was thinking in terms of the preserving their jobs as well as the path most likely to result in success. Pitchers often take time to become effective at the ML level so that's a relatively high risk plan. If they pass on a good return and don't have a great 2022, that's when Falvey and Levine's job would be in question if I were the Pohlads. If Berrios simply prefers to be elsewhere you are left with nothing. Yes, you could massively overpay and "get him at any cost" but that's bad management and leads to lost jobs. Keep in mind, the keep them plan makes no sense unless you trade away key future assets and/or are willing to increase payroll to the point it hurts because this team needs help. So, you have to present a plan to increase spending after two horrible years financially and risk the future. The other plan has financial relief for 2022 and not have what would be significant exposure in 2023. In addition, they would have lot assets that COULD have impacted our success for several years. You can spend the money you would have spent on Berrios elsewhere. Perhaps even more effectively and you have passed up adding significant assets even if you use them to trade for a SP. I think they do it of the return is good which does not mean blown away. However, that's just my opinion. We are going to see in a few weeks although we will never really know what they were offered.

All very reasonable Tom. The one area where I might disagree is that keeping Berrios in 2022 is the best way for them to keep their jobs. If they keep Berrios for 2022, they will have to ask for a considerable increase in payroll and/or trade away a significant portion of our prospects if we are to build an actual contender. (not challenge to win the division but contend for a deep run). Picture a meeting where this is discussed because these various scenarios have been fully vetted at this point. If not, they are incompetent and the Pohlad’s are asleep at the wheel. I would bet on the former. If you spend on the significant assets, you won’t have any money left to resign Berrios or Buxton unless you get someone to take Donaldson’s full contract. (good luck with that) For example, one of the top SS and the level SP we need would be in excess of $50M probably closer $55M. Of course, the needs don’t stop there. In other words, it’s an all-in for 2022 approach with a mountain of question marks. Presenting such a plan is the best way to lose your GM/PBO job. If you move forward with a plan to sign them with a plan to sign them once they hit free agency, you can’t sign the FAs you would need in 2022 because they will require multi-year commitments. The 2023 payroll can’t possibly support resigning Berrios/Buxton/Rodgers. They will not lose their jobs If they present the Pohlad’s with a plan to compete in 2023 under the following assumptions. They can get a good return for Berrios/Rodgers and maybe Buxton. All-in for 2022 would require foregoing this influx of talent. This is a core assumption. The entire plan would need reconsideration if the return is not available. Their best opportunity to build a contender is to take the next year and a half to audition and establish pitchers at the ML level. Move Donaldson for whatever is the best offer. Pay his entire 2021 salary is necessary but get his 2023 salary off the books. Insert Miranda or another prospect by sometime early next year and give them all of 2022 to get established. That way the position can be addressed in the off-season if necessary. Taking this path SHOULD return assets that can make a major contribution by 2023-24 for several years. With Donaldson / Sano of the books, we would have payroll flexibility in 2023 unlike anything we have had in many years.

For me it's that I thought he was going to break-out. Of course, he did in 2019 and I really thought he had arrived. Definitely not part of the problem although the 2019 Max would be a bigger part of the solution.

There are always exceptions. Justin Turner comes to mind. He had 58 PAs prior to his age 26 season and he was not good until his age 29 season.

I sure don't see Winder lower than Celestino and Cavaco. Winder and Miranda have made this very interesting. Based on this year I would have them 3&4 (behind Lewis/Balazovic) but should we put that much weight on a half year? IDK I have watched a few of the games and those two are quite impressive. Duran would round out the top 5 for me.

It's a crazy game. Even really good hitters just go through periods where they just stink it up. It's common. In Sano's case it's kind of been his norm since Milb. He does not seem to adapt very well to how he is being pitched. Of course, that's easier said than done. Come to think of it Kepler had some hot streaks in Milb but he too went through extended periods where he was mediocre. IDK but the results (at least on the surface) suggest a coaching change might help.

So, Miranda has moved into the top 5. That's a big jump and potentially a big boost to the organization at some point. Where Roger's points are concerned I just want to say ditto. I did not like the Sabato pick. That's just too high for a guy with minimal defensive value.

It is perplexing. Kepler's inability or refusal to take away the shift by bunting hard down 3rd base drives me crazy. I am half serious when I say I would keep him out of the lineup until he learns to bunt. Not a controlled bunt that takes real skill but just guide the ball within 15 feet of the line. Sano is hard to understand. Why does he continue to flail away at low breaking pitches. Is he incapable of recognizing that pitch? If he just can't hit, he is toast unless he learns to hit it. So, find guys to feed him that type of pitch until he can handle it or find a 2 strike approach or SOMETHING. We all the definition of doing the same thing over and over and expecting the same result. I am not a major league coach so maybe I just my ignorance but I don't understand them allowing these guys to continue with the same approach. What do you think, Mike? Is it too much to expect Kepler to do something to take away the shift that takes so many hits away from Kepler?

Sorry, I don't follow the logic. The Rays make great decisions. However, the Twins front-office is not as skilled. Therefore, the Twins FO should not make the smart decisions the Rays would? Again, we simply disagree. The cities, history, ownership, none of that negates that some strategies are better than others or that our team should do the same smart things the Rays do. If we did, we could also use the incremental revenue we generate to do things the Rays could not do in FA or in terms of retaining players. Have they made great personnel decisions. IDK! In terms of free agents, they have done quite well with the obvious exceptions of Happ. I don't really count Shoemaker because he was a cheap flier that made sense. In terms of trades. Maeda and Odorizzi were quite good. In terms of drafting, again IDK. With all of the injuries it will take until the end of 2022 to make an informed assessment of their drafting and development. Let me once again stress as I have with Mike, if they can execute the strategies most likely to produce a contender, fire the people that are failing and replace them with capable people. This is a pretty straight forward necessity in any organization. The merit of the strategy should dictate the plan. To follow a plan with less merit is an illustration of incompetence. Obviously, this opinion is a result of my experiences. Everyone has had different experiences and many will disagree. We also all weight short and long-term goals differently. Many sports fans put much more weight on the immediate term than I do. I am not willing to risk years of futility for the immediate term and many sports fans would without hesitation. That's going to cause disagreement.

I know it's been said often but all these injuries really suck!

You can't possibly believe I was saying I hope you are wrong to mean I hope they don't contend which is why you did not not quote me. It was very clear from the content I meant I hope you are wrong that they would trade away any future talent to bet on a 2021 team. I also shared that if this were true we would have failed with a great many prospects which would greatly reduce or chances of competing anytime soon. Getting two starters the caliber of Berrios/Maeda would require wiping out the farm system. Let me be clear, I think that would be wildly incompetent on the part of the FO. I was also clear I addressed the folly in a mid market team relying on free agency in general. In this case, signing a front of the rotation SP would preclude extending Berrios/Buxton. The post 22 salaries would not be sustainable even if they were great and revenue rebounded. It would be an absolute financial disaster if things did not work out. Let's try a real simple swing at our disagreement. Would the Rays trade away top prospects if they had the twins roster to bet on 2022? I don't expect you to acknowledge the point so let me answer... Not in a million years. Would the pass on the opportunity to get a nice return for Berrios/Rodgers/Buxton if they felt they could not extend them. History is quite clear in terms of what they would do. The difference in our positions is that your focus appears to be 2022 only. You are looking at the problem under the lens of how we do this in 2022. I am looking at the situation and saying what is the best path back. I do not believe trading away our future to bet on 2022 is a reasonable plan. As a matter of fact, I think it's a sure way of mitigating future success. As I said, you are welcome to your opinion. I have a very different opinion. We will have to wait and see what the guys who make these decisions believes to be the best approach.

I hope you are wrong. By far the most effective way to build a team is by producing starting pitching by drafting or trading for SPs before they are established. When you are a mid or small market team it's essential. The Twins at least have enough revenue that they can supplement a home grown staff with a free agent. IMO, the failure to develop homegrown pitching is one of the primary reasons the Twins have not had a deep playoff run in 30 years I also do not align with your pessimism where are SP prospects are concerned. As of now, I think there is very good reason to believe Winder and Balazovic can be impact SPs. Duran has a lower ceiling (RP) but he probably has the highest ceiling. Canterino / Enlow / Sands all seem to have mid rotation potential. Ober is a bit of a mystery to me. I would think he can be a solid 4 if he can maintain the plus command he has been known for in the minors. There are a couple other guys with potential too. That’s a lot of guys with MLB potential to dismiss. I also am not in the camp that seems to assume trades for SPs always work out. There were a lot of people ardent about trading for Snell who is now boast an ERA of 5.29. For the record, I don’t think it is remotely accurate to say the Twins passed on Wheeler. Wheeler was their #1 target. He was very firm in his desire to be in the NE. Fans sure to like to ignore any information that does not fit the narrative of we should have signed XYZ player. For example, Wheeler did not want to here or the fact that Philly's strategy which is what you are promoting has failed. They have been at or below 500 during the stretch where they signed Harper / Degrom / Wheeler / others and traded & resigned Realmuto. They can't make it work with $100M of incremental revenue on the Twins so is this really the best strategy for the Twins?

Pretty much irrelevant. I said "They did not trade anyone in 2017 that was going to bring a return with much probability of sticking. Can you look at any of those players and say you thought they were really good prospects." Well, was Tyler Watson a prospect with a high probability of sticking? You ignored the point because you want to complain where there is not much to complain about. I suspect they value the International money they got but that too is not the point. Kintzler had a 5.4 SO/9 and the return for him was modest. So, let's try again. Can you look at any of those players and say you thought they were really good prospects? It would be refreshing if you actually answer the question I posed. If they trade Cruz or Pineda or Rodgers for a prospect of the same status, then complain. In this case you did not even stop to think about the prospects that did not turn into MLB players. Seems like you latched on to something you felt made a point. A point which it would appear you did not come to objectively.

Some sports fans just bask in the belief they know more than the people in charge. If he is doing his job correctly, we will never know what goes on out of the public eye. I have no idea if he is doing a good job on a number of issues. I also have no idea if he is doing a good job.

Time to promote Varland.

Larnach was 8th on the team in wRC+ at 96. The league has already discovered his weakness and he will need to adjust.

The list of guys that never made it to "the next level" is endless. I doubt the problem is massive failure throughout the entire league to develop players, especially the last few years. The development effort and practices have been advanced and intensified. It's always possible something different could have been done to help but these three were not top prospects who failed to reach their expected level. Fans just feel better blaming it on "management".

He was never all that great at going to the opposite field. It drives me crazy that he and the coaching staff allow teams to put on an extreme shift. Rod Carew would have batted 900 against that shift. It drives me crazy that he can't take advantage of the enormous hole they leave him. He would not even need to control the distance. He could just bunt as hard as he likes. Had he learned to bunt, he would have negated the shift and his average would be considerably higher.

What does that look like Financially? Donaldson and Sano is roughly $30M. However, I can't imagine we can move Donaldson without eating salary. Are Pineda/Cruz gone. Even with Donaldson's full salary gone, that would be $40-50M cut. Are we replacing them with rookies? Add at least $30M for Buxton / Berrios / Rodgers leaves us $10-20M absolute best case scenario which is not likely. The SSs in next years class are going to be $25-33M. I am not sure any single SP is going to make this group a contender is going to be in the $30M neighborhood. So, we are talking about adding $30-40M (probably $40M) + arbitration increases in 2023. The rotation would have to be filled out by prospects in 2022 and I just don't see a free agent SP and one of the top SS being viable financially. The net of what you have described is to replace Pineda with a better FA and sign a SS. We lose Cruz / Sano. Losing Cruz will hurt. Upgrading Pineda and SS will help. Make us a contender help. I highly doubt it.

You are not exactly framing this in an unbiased manner. They did not trade anyone in 2017 that was going to bring a return with much probability of sticking. Can you look at any of those players and say you thought they were really good prospects. The interesting thing about that year is they went from buyers to sellers. The did give away a player (Ynoa) who I would not mind having back. The 2018 group has not produced yet but we did not have a Milb season last year and there are quite a few decent prospects that came from trading rentals and one good BP arm.