Major League Ready

Why would the Saints lose Lewis? Is he injured or test positive for Covid? They also have Palacios.

I think we will see the continued use of a 6 man rotation in order to limit innings. Ryan / Gray / Paddack / Winder / Ober / Archer for now. Sands probably gets introduced in the same manner as Winder but he might end up a multi-inning RP. I could see Duran / Jax and Sands all getting more than 1 inning at a time in half their appearances. The big question is who is the next to earn their way onto the rotation. It sure would be great to see Balazovic deliver on his potential like Duran. I expect one of Canterino / SWR and Balazovic to force their way on the team. However, I doubt the push SWR that quickly. Canterino seems the most likely unless Balazovic bounces back in a big way. What's the deal with Enlow? He is on the 7 day IL but has not played this year. Is he really going to be back in a few days? Enlow getting back on track would be great too. A couple of these guys could be valuable BP arms.

The fun is in the speculation. What will be the point in asking when we know the answer?

IDK if we should be thinking this rotation has a chance to make us a contender. IMO, the FO was looking to put a good team on the field while at the same time building a homegrown staff that would be the foundation of good teams for several years. The ceiling was a fringe contender that could beat most teams but not seriously contend with the Dodgers / Yankees / Jays / Mets. A few months ago, many here were panicking that we did not “have a ML pitching staff” and we were going to lose 90-100 games or we were on the verge of a 5 year rebuild, etc. The important perspective on where we stand now for me is that just 25 games in, we look to have the depth to support a very good season and the long-term is looking great. We have Gray for another season so next year is Gray / Ryan / Paddack / Winder / Ober plus whoever steps up over the next 137 games. Of course, there is also the emergence of Duran. I am not so sure they won’t give him a go as a SP, given he could be the true ace we have not had for a long time. We have Paddack through 2024 so if these guys can stay relatively healthy, we are not going to be using retreads anytime soon. Bottom line is I don’t have a high degree of confidence Bundy or Archer will be difference makers. They are here for a year to help transition to a homegrown staff. The key to this staff being “real” is the continued establishment of Ryan / Duran / Winder / Paddack / Ober and whoever comes behind them.

That's a horrible idea. His value is by far the highest at SS and Miranda is better equipped for that position. Let's also not forget Lewis has been out for 2 seasons and finally showing the great promise at a premier position that we all hoped for. Let's also recognize the odds of Correa being here next year are probably 10%. Royce Lewis is exactly where he should be doing exactly what he should be doing.

I am not sure how long the recovery is for a torn meniscus. However, I would assume he would be out a couple months and I would bet they send him to AAA for the full 20 days. Between the surgery recovery time and the rehab stint, he likely won't be back until after the trade deadline. I expect Miranda to get a shot to fill that spot. The best case scenario IMO is that we get a healthy / productive Kirilloff back at 1B in a month. Urshela is traded at the deadline making room permanently for Miranda at 3B.

I had them 80-84. Now, 88-90. Why? Some of the changes feel sustainable. I was not sure of what to expect from Duran but now health is the only thing that seems like could stop him. The depth of the starting rotation was not expected. Adding Paddack and Winder looking so good should keep the starting pitching strong even if even lose a starter or two for a stretch. Of course, Bundy looking so good helps but I am not sold he will sustain a high level of play. Jax is another guy who looks like he could be for real. Many speculated he would benefit from moving to the BP and that feels like a reasonable bet. All these net gains make it easy to see a path to 88-90 wins. We are also getting more offensive production from Kepler and Jeffers than expected. Hard to say if they will sustain this production but they are both are looking good and have played at this level in the past. Kepler finally going opposite field with success will make him much more productive as the shift took a lot of hits from him. Larnach seems to have improved significantly in handling breaking balls so his improvement seems sustainable as well. Now, the icing on the cake would be Polanco getting back on track and that seems reasonable probable. I don’t expect the SP to remain this good but that’s still a lot of net gain in both pitching and offense that should translate to a good season. I would look even better if Alcala and Kirilloff come back strong. Urshela has been pretty good but I would love to see a productive Kirilloff at 1B and Miranda starting a long run a 3B.

In terms of acquisition strategy or asset management they are basically the same in my mind. You see a big variance here in terms of that philosophy/strategy. Many fans want immediate results and are big advocates of trading prospects for established players. Trading for prospects is obviously philosophically and strategically the opposite side of that coin. It requires the same type of insight / projection and most of these players required additional development. If you look at how mid/small market teams have developed playoff teams. Trading for prospects has been as important as drafting where trading for established players plays a very small role. Deadline trades are looking like they are going to have a big impact on this team for the next several years. Ryan / Duran / Alcala / Celestino already here and Martin / SWR not far off.

Not if he is capable of being an average defender at 3B. He is more valuable at 3B. If Kirilloff ends up at 1B, Miranda could play 1B in the future against tough lefties and Martin or Steer could cover 3B.

I would not expect anything from Maeda this year and I would be he gets traded this off-season. Why would the twins use a spot in the rotation for a guy coming of TJ surgery when they still have several prospects that should be ready?

How the BP evolves is going to really interesting. There are only three guys that seem like they are locks for next year. (Duran / Alcala / Pagan) Any of Thielbar / Coulombe / Minaya / Moran / Cano / Cotton / Smeltzer / Sands / Henriguez / Jax / Stashak could make it and I think Canterino might be a multi-inning RP. Of course, there is our old friend Randy Dobnak. That's 13 guys for 5 spots and that's if they don't sign any free agent RPs. The depth at AAA should be good.

I am right with you. I would love to see a playoff team but like all the national media, I did not believe the team had a any shot of being a true contender. Things are looking good at the moment and they might be more of a contender than I could have hoped for. Ryan / Duran / Ober / Bundy / Paddack and Larnach are looking like the will provided a big boost. Kepler has been a nice surprise as well. I am simply more concerned with the things that drive sustained success. Success for me is Ryan / Winder and Duran showing they will elevate this team for the next 6+ years. Paddack could be a nice boost for 3 years. Has Max Kepler figured it out. That would be big for 3 years. Can a couple more pitchers among (Balazovic / Sands / Henriguez / Canterino establish themselves at the ML level in the rotation or BP. Then there is the trio of Miranda / Lewis and Martin. It would be huge if all three of them are contributing to the big league club at some point this season. My measure of success will be heavily influenced by how they get there. Buxton proving he can stay healthy. Ryan / Winder / Ober and Duran having great success. Larnach / Miranda getting established as middle of the order bats. These young guys contributing in a big way will be an important part of how I will measure success at the ML level. The development of the next wave in the minors will also be important to how I view the teams relative success. Lewis and Martin having big years. The next wave of pitching (SWR / Raya / SGL / Varland, etc) performing in Milb. If all of these developments come to fruition it will be a very successful season IMO, regardless of how many playoff wins they have. It will fell pretty successful if we can realistically look forward to good to great teams for the next several years.

I was not aware of these quotes. My optimism for Kirilloff's return might well be misplaced. Larnach playing so well makes Kirilloff taking over 1B the ideal scenario. However, Miranda getting a chance is a nice consolation prize. This team is probably going to have a lot of exciting transition this year. Ryan / Duran / Winder and Larnach are looking good. Hopefully, Miranda extends this trend.

The answer at 1B is not Urshela or Miranda. Kirilloff is the answer. Larnach playing so well has made this easy. Kirilloff will be back playing 1B very soon and Larnach starts in LF. They have Gordon / Garlick and Celestino as backup OFers. I am looking forward to Miranda / Lewis and Martin forcing their way on to the roster, but we are not there yet.

Have to agree. It made me think about how and when Winder gets added. Obviously, injury creates opportunity, but I think they end up trading Archer / Bundy or even Gray at the deadline. If the SPs stay healthy a couple of these three could get traded leaving Ryan / Paddack / Ober / Winder and one of the veterans for the rest of the season with Smeltzer as depth. A good showing the next couple months from some of the next wave (Smeltzer / Balazovic / Henriguez / Sands / SWR / Canterinio) would likely make the FO more inclined to trade some of our veteran pitching at the deadline at which point Winder would take a permanent spot (hopefully) in the rotation.

I would not be considering cutting him just yet. There are a lot of great players really slumping this year. Whit Merrifield who is normally steady has a wRC+ of 7. Franmill Reyes, 11, Bobby Dalbec is at 30, Joey Votto 42, Marcus Semien 42, and Randy Arozarena 55. Eddie Rosario has been the worst hitter in the league at -20 wRC+. Correa had been pretty bad too, but he sure looks like he is out of his funk. On the other hand, they just don't need him if Kirilloff can stay healthy and Trevor Larnach is for real. They are going to let this play out for another month at least so buckle your seat belts.

Lewis has a 420 OBP. Let's hope he can maintain a high OBP at the ML level. Buxton and Lewis at the top of our lineup for the next several years will be fun to watch.

They have scored 3 or less in all 9 losses. I would not be criticizing pitching at this point. The weakness has been the heart of the order (Correa / Polanco / Kirilloff / Sano)

I would definitely not use Yelich as an example supporting a modest revenue team signing this type of deal. He could definitely bounce back but right now he looks like the perfect example of why teams outside the top revenue markets generally avoid these deals. Milwaukee would have been a real contender last year had they had another big bat. I bet Milwaukee fans wish they had that $26M to invest in a couple bats this year. For me the question Mike posed does not have a definite answer, just shades of gray. Just how good does the front office believe Lewis will be a SS. If he has the ability to well above average at SS, I prefer to avoid the risk associated with such a high percentage of total payroll invested in one player for 7+ years. I would roll with Lewis and invest the $32M wherever the greatest need exists. I think we have a lot of mid rotation guys. A Justin Verlander type deal could be a great alternative.

All the young cost-controlled pitching could enable the twins to sign a premier player to a contract with an AAV higher than small/mid-market teams take on. With this in mind, I think the twins could consider a $33M AAV for 6 years. I don't think there is any possibility Correa would sign for 6/200 unless he sucks the rest of the year and even then, he would likely decline the opt out and hope for a bounce back year. Lindor turned down 10/325. Semien got 7/175 at age 31. Worst case scenario from Correa's perspective, he could stay here for 3 years, collect $105M and be a year younger than Semien when he hits free agency. He is not signing for 6/200. For superstar players it's all about their leveraging prime years to get paid beyond their value for as long as possible. Correa will surely opt out of he rebounds and the market price is going to be much closer to $300M than $200M.

The number of great pitching performances is REALLY encouraging. I was very interested to follow Raya this year. He is kind of a Berrios clone with perhaps even more upside. Gibson-Long is the other guy that looks like he has a high ceiling. All of these other guys who are looking so good are making these weekly reports a real day brightener.

I am a fan of piggybacking when it fits the situation / personnel as it does here. I also think it's imperative Winder get ML innings this year. However, we should not just jettison Jax. We have let too many RPs walk and prove to be useful elsewhere. That makes 6 with Duran, Pagan, Smith, Thielbar and Duffey but only 1 lefty. So, filling that last spot with Coulombe or perhaps Moran at some point makes some sense and Coulombe is out of options. We need to solidify the BP which means giving those guys a chance too. I guess all I am saying is that sending Winder down may make the most sense when considering the whole. It will not hurt to have him in a normal routine in AAA while giving some other guys a chance in the BP. I won't be shocked if Winder remains but I think he will go along with one of the OFers. That choice will also be interesting. Larnach has hit the ball well even though the results have been modest. Garlick hits LH pitching. Celestino fills a role. One of them has to go.

You are overlooking the rest of the roster. You can't send Gray / Bundy or Archer down. You could send Paddack I guess but that would be a real slap in the face to an established pitcher you just traded for, not to mention we traded a closer for him. That's 4 guys. Then you have Ryan and Ober. They aren't going down. So, you want Rocco to figure out how to utilize 7 starters and be left with 6 RPs? I guess it's feasible using Mike's piggyback approach but 6 RPs seems like a bad idea and I don't think that's the best way to develop Winder. An injury will likely provide an opportunity for him soon enough.

IDK. It's just nice to have a player worthy of this question signed to play for our favorite team for the next 7 years.

This is a good point. It would not go over well to eliminate his opportunity for those bonuses especially given the bonuses are far more than the guaranteed salary. That would not be a good look when recruiting free agents in the future. Also, It's a mutual option for 2023 according to Spotrac. Those don't work out all that often given either party can opt out. I see them trading him at the deadline if he has been good. They have a $11M team option on Bundy for 2023. I would think they prefer to keep the guy with a team option but that could make him a great chip. I would bet one of Archer / Bundy / Gray gets traded at the deadline.