Major League Ready

I am assuming you mean opening day of 2022. That would be relevant if we were counting on them to contribute to a contending team. The strategy of a mid market team producing a contending rotation in the off-season without counting on an absurd level of luck would be incompetent on the part of our FO. Any attempt is likely to perpetuate mediocrity or worse. So why manage the roster as if this is the goal. All of the prospects I mentioned have a reasonably good chance of being ready to pitch at the ML level at some point in 2022. If you don't believe ML experience is important, we should fill the rotation with established pitchers and let our prospects sit in AAA. That's sounds like a really good way to continue to be bad to me. Developing pitching is basically a prerequisite to contending for a mid or small market team so shouldn't our strategy facilitate that need?

What is competitive? A 500 team or a contender?

That's some backward wisdom. If you fill a spot, it's not open for a prospect. It's not complicated. This does not cause a problem If we contending. It does create a problem giving a prospect that is ready innings at the ML level. We are going to have four opening, three if they give Dobnak a shot so the question is how many spots do we need for the guys that will be ready. Guys that should or could be ready next year .... Balazovic / Ryan / Woods Richardson / Duran / Canterino / Enlow / Winder and Sands. That's 8 if you don't count Jax or Barnes. Is it a good idea to fill the rotation with Pineda types and fail to provide these guys the ML experience they need for this team to move forward. That's a good way to be a 500 team and prolong that level of play. This team's future is largely dependent on developing our SP prospects. Let's get on with it.

Agree with the pitching part. Donaldson is signed through 2023 and a $16M option for 2024 withan $8M buyout. We would be better off long-term to get out of that contract ASAP and transition to Miranda next year. Ideally, we trade Donaldson and pay $5-7M of his salary. I believe Miranda could produce as well as a 3y y/o Donaldson in 2023. Take the extra $15M and sign a $30M SP instead of a $15M SP or sign Buxton. Actually, they could afford both with Donaldson off the books.

Enlow might not be enough under the radar guy to be the next Ober but I have a feeling he emerges next year. I guess Sands is the same kind of under the radar prospect that could turn into a solid MLB starter. Valimont is nothing like Ober in that he struggles with command and Ober has plus command. However, he has the stuff and he would be very good if he were able to develop even average command. He is 24 and it does not seem to be improving so I have my doubts. I am hoping moving to the BP and getting more frequent reps helps his control. Sawyer Gibson-Long is the one that most reminds me of Ober. Great command. He would be a good bet if he could dial up the velo a couple mph like Ober was able to do.

If it makes you feel better, they failed. The Pohlad’s know the plan failed. Reasonable plans / actions fail quite frequently in MLB. Players get injured and good players underperform. There is an endless list of high dollar FAs and trades that fail. In other businesses, we expect certain failures as well. What gets people fired is the pursuit of questionable judgement because it’s expeditious or utilizes strategies with a low probability of success. The strategy going forward should not be based on the failure of the previous plan. It should be based on the merit of the plan in terms of achieving the goal of sustained success. The continued employment of Falvey and Levine should be a product of their ability to bring forth a plan to come back from the current failure. I would hope the Pohlad’s will ask for a concept plan at the end of the season. They should let them go if they do not believe in the plan and vision Falvey / Levine present. If they believe in the plan, they should allow them to manage that plan. If it fails, it would suggest they are unable to execute and they should be let go.

Whenever I present to a client’s senior management team or board of directors, I prepare for their likely questions and responses. In this case, I imagine going before the board and presenting a future state plan and concluding we should proceed with a focus on contending next year. Point 1 – We need to replace the entire starting pitching staff and a couple RPs. Here is my plan complete with FA acquisitions and trades. Their response …. Is it feasible to replace an entire SP staff to the point of building a contender? No, extremely low odds. How often is this feat accomplished and how much will it cost. Never, any team in this position retools in some form taking 1-5 years, longer in the case of many teams throughout history. $75-80M will BP additions. What are the odds of it working out? Very Very Small Will this plan facilitate sustained success? No. It will put a better product on the field next year at the expense of giving prospects playing time at the MLB level. We will also have to trade away prospects that would improve our future outlook. Point 2 – If all the acquisitions work out which has about a 15% probability, we would still need to resolve our SS issue so we need to spend another $25M. Then, we need to hope Donaldson stays healthy and productive, Kirilloff comes back from injury and Sano is more like the last month than the previous 4 months. Oh and we need Buxton to stay healthy and produce like he did in April. To which they respond … How long would or relative position change if you took a year to focus on development and could you put a reasonably good product on the field during the interim? We have about 10 SPs that are ready or could be by ready for the ML level by 2023. By 2023 we could field 4-5 solid SPs. Then, we could add a top of the rotation SP in 2023. We could trade Donaldson and transition Miranda in 2022. We would take a hit on his salary but it would position us to sign a top SP and retain Buxton. We have BP prospects and some SPs that could be used to solidify a very good BO by 2023. It is also likely Martin Lewis will be ready by 2023 but we would need at least one roster spot if not two to get them transitioned. We could also trade Arraez for a SS that will be ready by 2023 if we are not confident in Lewis / Martin at SS. To which they respond … you believe the former strategy is better than the latter. Yes, we need to take a shot at contention even though the likelihood of success is extremely low. To which they responds … please get out of our board room, we will not be needing your services in the future.

I never once heard them say they could put a contending team on the field every year. What I heard them say was that their GOAL was sustained success. What else would you want them to say? For anyone who knows the game at all to interpret that statement to mean they will put a contender on the field every year is incredibly simplistic thinking. It's just not possible so why would anyone interpret their statement to be such a promise. Then, to lash out with "they should just trade everyone" is simply a crude approach. Teams going through many different variations of rebuilding and retooling. It makes exactly zero sense to trade off every established asset. They have a solid core. The BP already looks much improved and they have numerous MLB ready starting pitching prospects. Establishing those SPs by 2023 would put them in the enviable position of anchoring 3 or 4 spots in their rotation with prearb players. That positioning would allow them to sign a very top tier free agent SP which most mid market teams are never able to afford. Incompetence is pursuing a bad plan because it's expeditious.

Cabrera is an interesting case. He has only played 60 Milb games since turning 20. He had 102 games in Rookie ball from 17-19. He really has not had time to develop. How is his defense / range / arm?

Nick’s plan sounds a lot like the Padres plan except the Padres had a few advantages. They started with Tatis jr / Machado and Jake Cronenworth who will have about 4.5 WAR by the end of the season. Polanco has a shot to get to 4 WAR if he stays hot. We don’t have another position player that will get to 2.5 WAR. They also were bring back an established quality starter in Chris Paddack and they had the best and deepest farm system in the league to trade from. How is it working out for SD? Well, they are not going to make the playoffs. They are on pace for 86 wins provided they don’t continue to struggle like they have been. How about next year? My guess is 84-85 wins. Darvish at 35 has been bad the last couple months. He has given up 27 ER in his last 39 innings (9 games). Next year they have $20M invested in his age 36 season and what are the odds he is any good in his age 37 season. They do have Musgrove for 1 more season. They have Blake Snell for 2 more seasons but so what. He has basically been a 2 WAR pitcher for 5 seasons and he had one year where he was great. They gave up Luis Patino in the Snell trade. He has a 60FV SP and has already made it to the MLB level. He is a better prospect than Joe Ryan without a doubt. He has 3 plus pitches (FB 65) and plus command (60). While he may not ever have a season like Snell did when he was the Cy Young winner, he will probably be better than Snell over the course of his career. He might even be better than Snell next year and they have him for the next 6 years. Ray’s also got Mejia who is a solid platoon catcher (basically Jeffers) and they also got Cole Wilcox who was 20 at the time of the trade. He has a 2.03 ERA. Granted, he is still in A ball but this kind of long-term approach. Lots of people are going to be disappointed when the Twins don’t follow a San Diego type strategy. I hope they take 2022 to develop the myriad of MLB and near MLB ready pitchers. Give them time at the MLB level instead of following a strategy likely to produce mediocrity. So, many here like to write the FO will demonstrate incompetence if they don’t do all of these things. I disagree. Hopefully, they have the critical thinking skills to pursue an approach that has the best chance of building sustained success and that approach is not consistent with a strategy that pursues the illusion of being a serious WS contender next year and failing to develop our prospects at the MLB level..

Waaaaaaay too early to jump to to a conclusion. He is 23 and we lost a season of development last year. We have seen them add velo with other guys. A couple MPH could make a big difference and this guy has the frame and athleticism. Refining the changeup for a 3rd pitch would be big and he has plus control. Let's not write the guy off top the BP just yet. The negativity around here is a real downer.

The most important individual performance in August IMO was Ober establishing his place in rotation for next year. However, the BP in aggregate is looking like we have added some pieces that will help next year. Minaya looks to be part of the future. Garza could do the same with a strong performance the remainder of the season and Griffin Jax will probably end up as part of the BP solution. Coulumbe is serviceable too. Alcala has what it takes and he seems to be putting it together. Get Rodgers back with Alcala performing the way he has recently, put Gant in the BP, replace Colome with a reliable late inning guy and along with these new additions we have reason to be optimistic about the BP next year. Rodgers / FA / Duffey / Alcala / Minaya / Gant / Thielbar / Garza Jr. A LH free agent would be ideal or a RH free agent, Gant starts the year in rotation if he does well the rest of the year. Jax is a depth piece in the rotation or replaces Garza.

Eaton is a replacement level player so how is he an example of a great addition. Abreau was an extension, NOT an addition. How is Gonzales an example of a good sign? He was below replacement level? Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal were two years ago. Hendricks and Lynn were this year. So, yes they made a couple good signings in successive years. They did not even remotely close to what you are suggesting in a given year. Actually, no team outside the top 10 revenue markets have ever done anything close to what you are suggesting and I doubt even the top revenue teams have ever added the number of impact players you are suggesting in a given year. You do understand there are 30 other teams competing for these players, right?

They don’t need to blow it up. They need to use 2022 to get pitchers established. It won’t be pretty at times but they could put a very good product on the field in 2023 if they use this next year to develop pitchers. This includes testing guys like Jax in the BP. Let’s assume for just a moment Ober is solid going forward. They need two of Balazovic / Ryan / Duran / Canterino / SWR / Enlow / Winder to get established in 2022. That’s a relatively modest expectation. Maeda is back in 2023. Establishing all these pitchers will leave plenty in the budget to go sign a very good SP, perhaps Jose Berrios. Sign Buxton and get Kirilloff back and healthy in 2022. Make the transition from Donaldson to Miranda in 2022. Some of the starting pitching prospects fine their way to the BP in 2022. Martin joins the big league club in 2022 and Lewis in 2023. We would still have enough payroll flexibility to add one more impact FA as a result of developing SP and pieces. We could also trade Arraez for a SS or pitching. BTW ... This team is over 500 this month against a very tough schedule without Buxton / Kirilloff and "no pitching". Get those guys back and hopefully some production from Larnach with Jake Cave removed and we have a pretty darn good offense.

I am think the question you should have asked was if the poster was suggesting the Twins trade away long-term assets similar to Sale/ Eaton like the WS did to initiate building the team they have now. Trading away a year and a couple months of Berrios is not at all like trading Sale and Eaton and whoever else they traded back then. It makes absolutely no sense to hold up the WS as an example and ignore they got here via a rebuild that took a few years. They spent very little in free agency during those years. Sode note: I believe the Twins were at roughly $10M less than the WS in annual salary before they traded away Cruz / Berrios / Happ

For what it's worth ... I was listening to "The Front Office" on MLB network while driving this weekend. They were actually talking about the Met's failure this year and what they should do about it. Their solution was to do whatever it takes to get Theo Epstein including giving him partial ownership. Their back-up plan was to get Derek Falvey. They were emphatic to the point of suggesting they give him a 10 year $100M contract. Point being this is what impartial observers who have actually had a GM job think of Falvey.

There is a good chance he ends up in the BP, They just don't have a lot of options at the moment because of the crazy number of injuries on the MLB and Milb side.

I have seen him at SS and CF. Can't say I know the ratio.

Baseball teams and players for that matter have many critics. Everyone knows how to run the team better. How many of those critics have credentials for running a $300M business because that's what we are talking about. Many people here have highly skilled jobs that required a significant formal education and then several years of validating their skills to get said job. If someone (a hobbyist) came to their office and suggested these skilled people had no idea what they were doing, I am thinking the response would be less than cordial. Apparently, everyone has the skillset required to run a baseball organization because everyone seems to be qualified to evaluate baseball executives. They are so skilled that they can do this without even meeting them or reviewing the decision process that took place as we have few of these details.

When I checked on the Milb games last night I noticed Gibson-long threw 67 pitches, 56 for strikes. So, I watched the innings he pitched. You can't tell much given the camera work for A+ games but you could not miss that everything was around the zone. Anyone know what he has for velocity?

I have ZERO problem with them trading Wade. We were very deep in corner OFers, especially LH. Frankly, he looked like a AAAA player to me. His only above average skill was plate discipline. He looked to have well below average power. Fangraphs rated him 30/35. He was not fast enough to play CF and he has a weak arm. We will see if he continues to hit HRs at this rate but count me surprised and skeptical that the league won’t adapt. I believe the Twins thought highly of Baddoo. They (like me) just did not believe a team would take him and roster him for a year or that he would perform this well thrown into at the MLB level. Numerous highly regarded prospects did not perform well this year after missing last year. Others were unaffected. Point being I doubt they did not believe in his talent. They just did not believe a team would take him. The trades that bug me is Luis Gil and Huascar Ynoa. I don’t recall anyone here having a problem with us trading away a 19 year old A-ball pitcher and I thought little of it as well. 3 ½ years later, and the knowledge that Cave did not amount to much, this one bothers me because we traded away a pitcher with a high ceiling for a tweener. Ynoa was traded for a rental. Gil / Ynoa / Ober would be a nice start to building a great rotation. There are a couple lessons here. One of them is that we will still be following the team when these deals that take 3 or 4 years impact the ML club come to fruition.

I was going to login to the game thread last night for the sole purpose of saying that umpire sucked! Jax made a couple of perfect pitches and the ump screwed him. Then, he called a couple on our guys that were 4 inches outside the zone.

We have had pluses and minuses just like most teams. We got Odorizzi for nothing. The one that looks like a pretty big negative at the moment is Luis Gil. He looks legit. Man, I would like to have him here next year. It happens, Was Chicago's FO monumentally incompetent when they traded away Tatis Jr. or is it part of the risk of trading prospects away?

Thanks Seth. Do you think he has enough bat to be an every day player? That versatility would make for a great bench player.

This discussion just illustrates that this roster could go in a lot of different directions. It will be interesting to see how many Donaldson rumors pop up this fall. That will give us an idea if they are looking to move him. Sign Buxton and trade Donaldson is #1 and #2 this off-season for me. I don't think trading Donaldson is key to making next year's team better but it would help build a winner if the corresponding moves are good.