Major League Ready

Good question. They are probably going to get outbid for the top guys which leaves us with Galvis or Iglesis which are not great alternatives. BTW ... I think Taylor is going to get paid. Teams value flexibility and he is a better version of Marwin Gonzales. Without looking to deep I think there are some SS prospects who are blocked. This is where I would look to deal Arraez or even Rogers. It's a bit of a long shot but that could be a good solution if it lined up.

This is difficult to assess. It appears to me it's a conscious plan with Tampa. Do these other teams have low IPs from their starters because they are simply bad? Has Tampa found a market inefficiency in SPs that don't excel when expected to go 6 plus but are good the 1st couple times through the order. Have they adapted strategies and pitching sequences to succeed with this type of pitcher? Jax appears to be this type of SP to me. I think he would do better in the BP or in a stacking concept.

I liked the Simmons signing. He has been a phenomenal defender throughout his career. He is still good and fun to watch defensively. So, what I was trying to say is get someone good on both sides of the ball. I don't care to watch 400+ ABS from Simmons next year. What I would like to see them do is sign Chris Taylor. He is very capable of playing other positions if Lewis proves worthy of taking that spot.

The Rays have been among the lowest IP from SPs and they have 100 wins in the AL East. They have been using this model very successfully for a while now. I prefer SPs that can give you 7 but there is more than one way to succeed.

I should have known you did not mean to trade both Polanco and Garver. I still don’t see trading either of them as a get better fast strategy. Teams interested in Polanco or Garver are contenders or teams looking for a missing piece to get them in contention. Trading away assets that would help us get in contention is one step forward and one step back. Anything is possible but I don’t see this happening. They would have to find a team that was contending but so weak at 2B that they would trade away pitching. That’s just not likely. The teams who would want Polanco are going to trade future capital. The Cubs got one ML player (Davies) in the Darvish deal but he was a replacement level player. The best prospects they got in that trade were 18 years old. The Rays, in typical Ray’s fashion, got some immediate value for Snell in Francisco Mejia. Nice role player but not an impact player. They got Patino who already made his debut this season but he certainly was not a path to getting better immediately. Trading Garver or Polanco are strategies to rebuild and the players they would get back probably won’t impact the team for 2-3 years. There are always exceptions. We could find other Joe Ryan type deals (assuming he continues to perform) but the premise of trading to get better immediately assumes established MLB players so that’s not what we are talking about here. I don’t see any scenario where getting back into contention nest year that does not require absolutely everything to go nearly perfectly. In other words, any such scenario is low probability so I would not leverage the future in any strategy for 2022. I would also prioritize some transitions in 2022. Donaldson to Miranda. Larnach and Martin transitioned in if they show they are ready and maybe even Lewis. Most importantly, get ML experience for our SP prospects that show they are ready in 2022. There are a few strategies that provide a high probability of getting better quickly. Contending? Probably not. A good product and entertaining baseball, yes. 1) There is a lot of free agent pitching available this year. Get some. 2) Replacing Simmons with someone who can hit and play D. 3) Decline Colome’s option and get a couple reliable free agent RPs 4) Don’t give Cave any ABs

Their first draft was 2017 so they have had 4 drafts. We also lost an entire season. It's ironic you suggest someone is incompetent with a review that contains an inaccurate account of the terms nor do you account for an extremely unusual circumstance of a missed season. I guess if you just want to complain a reasonable account of the facts is not necessary.

Cruz had a wRC+ of 96 the 2nd half of the season. One year guys can help keep it interesting but we need to be looking for players that can contribute to sustained success. The long-term success of this team is tied to pitching prospects. Eliminating ABs for Simmons and Cave will sure help the entertainment value of this club for me. Watching those ABs was painful. Sign Michael Taylor. He could play SS or OF.

Trading two of your best position players is not a good formula for getting better fast if "fast" means next year. Trading Polanco and Garver would be moves to rebuild for 2-4 years from now. They would need to trade top prospects to get better next year. Trading Lewis / Miranda / Martin or top pitching prospects is the most likely trade formula for getting better next year. I seriously doubt they trade any of those position players. We are very lean in up the middle position players. Lewis and Martin are the only two up the middle position player prospects with a high ceiling on the horizon. It could be argued that Miranda is our best position player prospect. He is a very logical transition from Donaldson and he has some position flexibility. I just don't see them moving any of these players. Of course, we could trade pitching prospects. We finally have enough prospective pitching to believe they can build a rotation from within. Do they want to give that up now? It would be one thing if we were a player or two away from seriously contending but that is not the case. Any team can get better fast if they are willing to trade future wins for immediate wins. However, there is often a premium associated with getting better immediately. I don't see them paying that premium now. They can put a good product on the field next year without leveraging the future. Get Kirilloff and Rogers back, add a good SS and even one "Stroman / Rodon" type SP and the team that was a game above 500 after the deadline is a pretty darn good team.

Trading Arraez or Polanco is at the top of my list. I Have always believed in Polanco and would hate to see him go. I would trade him if it's a really big haul. If that kind of trade is not available, I would trade Arraez. Really hate the idea of trading Garver. So, same thought as Polanco. It has to be a haul. Will the Universal DH give Sano reasonable trade value? He does impact games. I have never been a much a Sano supporter but I don't think they should move him for the sake of moving him. He could bring value at the deadline. Kepler is a sell low candidate too so why trade him now. I would have Donaldson on this list. We will likely be a better team with him in 2022. However, I think we are better in 2023 with Miranda in his 2nd year and the salary savings invest elsewhere. Donaldson will be 37 yrs / 4 months at the start of the 2023 season. Rodgers and/or Duffy should be available if the return is right but that opportunity will exist at the dead line too.

I am arguing their strategies should be developed on likelihood of success as opposed to the need to be in place on opening day next year. I significant percentage of the absolute clusters I have seen in client's organizations was a product of them insisting on something be in a specific timeframe. What they ended up doing was making the situation worse. Many fans have a very difficult time accepting any approach that is not focused on contending immediately. I would not be too quick to make any big moves until they figure out if they are going to get Buxton signed. Then, can they get a top FA pitcher to come here. I would not be trading any major pieces until these two things had some clarity. The other point I was making is that a "Padres approach" can have significant cost for several years. I do not agree the Padre's approach was all that great. Snell is just not that good. Musgrove played well but two years of control is a short window and anytime you trade for a pitcher as old as Darvish you are taking considerable risk. They bet 10 prospects on this approach. Right now that wisdom is very questionable.

Compete or contend? They were quite competitive the last couple months of the season. The next question does contending mean being close enough to have a shot at the AL central or wild card or does it mean being a team like the Astros or Rays that have a very good shot at going deep in the playoffs. They have a decent shot at keeping it interesting. Rebuilding to the point of dominance this off-season not so much. Any decent team with good prospects can leverage the future to get better now. Last year everyone praised the Padres for being aggressive. They had an extremely deep farm system and they spent a great deal of future capital to get better quickly. They traded away 10 prospects and spent $38M. Where are they now? They have one more year of Musgrove. Snell just is not that good and Tampa knew it. Darvish will turn 36 toward the end of next season and he was quite bad the last couple months of 2021. Should we really want them to push in their chips at this moment? Can they put a good product on the field without leveraging the future?

Yes, this could really change the outlook for next season. If Alcala can be an effective starter and we add one really good free agent to go along with Ober / Ryan / Alcala, all of the sudden the pitching situation looks quite different. This is a really intriguing idea.

I agree with those who say we are a little short on depth in position players. We could end up looking quite strong a year from now but we really need Miranda / Lewis and Martin to reach their projections. There are plenty of other guys who can average MLB players and you need those guys too. There is always the chance guys like Walner / Severino / Cabbage / Sabato could also continue to improve their stock. It sure would be nice to have another Miranda like breakout player next year. If you fill a rotation from within, it's easier to fill position players from free agency and we will be in a financial position to do so if we build a rotation from prospects. We can also afford to extend Buxton who is all the more important given our lack of depth at CF and position players in general.

The Royals have made the playoffs twice in the past 35 years!

You reload to make a playoff run, right? So, I don’t understand the logic of you would trade Arraez to make a playoff run, not to reload? It also does not make sense to hold on to him for 3B. Donaldson is better offensively and defensively. Our top position player prospect (Miranda) is also ready and he can play 3B. Arraez is the least preferable option of the three at 3B. We are a better team with Donaldson at 3B. We are probably better with Miranda at 3B plus whatever we get for Arraez plus whatever we save on Donaldson going into pitching. Maybe not in 2022 but by 2023 I would prefer to have Miranda at 3B (and 10+M saved on Donaldson applied to pitching or a Buxton extension) over a 37 y/o Donaldson.

Arraez is the only one of the three that would bring back a meaningful piece. He is also somewhat redundant. The only position he plays reasonably well is 2B and we have a great 2B and we have multiple prospects that can play 2B. I would like to see them sign Taylor at SS. He can move to 3B or 2B if Lewis or someone else proves to be better at SS. Lewis / Miranda / Taylor and Gordon would provide a really flexible group of IFers for the next several years. Trade Arraez for pitching. Trade Donaldson by the trade deadline next year. Use the money for pitching. Sign Buxton and add Martin next year. That's a good team for the next several years and it should be even further improved with the depth of pitching prospects that are close.

Do they deserve an A+? No. That was probably just Pohlad’s way of publically supporting the management team. However, a baseball fan / blogger is going to evaluate the situation differently than a business owner. A management consulting firm that evaluates management operations would also look at the situation through a considerably different lens. The baseball fan is going to focus on this season. A business owner is going to look at their entire tenue, where we were, and how we are positioned for the future. A owner or professional evaluation team would also focus on management infrastructure and the things they were brought in to change. The Twins were far behind the league in terms of analytics and player development programs. Are we considerably better positioned than when we were? Minor league operations were evaluated and change substantially. What kind of hiring decisions have they made? How much have these things improved? We have some insight to these questions. I would presume the Pohlad’s have been given formal reports. Sorry Tom, while I agree the A+ is public puffery, you are very focused on the premise they have had 5 years to bring in pitching. For starters, their 1st draft was 2017. That’s 4 years. We also lost an entire minor league season and you have to at least consider the role injury has played. They would have graduated a couple more pitchers given a normal rate of injury. The grade for me is an incomplete. We have never been this deep in legitimate pitching prospects. Are they different from prospects like Jay / Romero / Gonsalves who ultimately failed? IDK but that’s the point. We still don’t know if the Falvey / Lavine prospects are going to make it or not because their picks have yet to be tested at the ML level because of very unusual circumstances. Four years (not 5) would have been adequate under normal conditions but we did not have normal conditions. The decisions made this year were all reasonable. The moves that are going to hurt us for a while were made long ago in the form of trading away Gil / Ynoa and leaving Wells unprotected. There were other guys that were fringe players that should have been exposed before Wells. Gil and Ynoa were the type of trades many fans want to make. Trade a way A ball guys for help now. However, they were high upside SPs. Those guys should never be traded away like they were for a 4th OFer and a rental. I find these decisions much more objectionable that what happened this season.

I really hope they can find acceptable terms with Buxton. He is by far the most exciting player on the team. However, the risk needs to be addressed. Take out his first year because he debuted in June and also take out 2020 because of covid and he averages 80 games a year. He has only played over 100 games once. You can’t be a difference maker if you are not on the field. A mid-market team paying big guaranteed money to a risky player is by no means a no-brainer. We can take an indignant stance as fans because it’s very easy to ignore risk when you are not accountable. Just think about the list of high profile players with contracts that have really hurt their teams for years. It’s far from a no brainer and cost does matter.

According to Fangraphs, Garlick has an option, Refsnyder does not. My guess is that Garlick and Rooker are on the 40 man next year. 2022 is not realistically a year in contention. Therefore, players like Rooker / Gordon / Jax / Garza will probably get an extended look in 2022. Jax might be in the pen or a stacked starter.

I thought about that last night. Cruz is certainly among the best FA acquisitions this team has ever made. Then, his parting gift is to bring back a really nice prospect that might be an impact player for another 6+ years.. Who knows, maybe two. Yes, thank you Nelson Cruz. I hope he is back as a coach one day.

They need to fill 4 spots next year. 3 if Ryan establishes a spot in the rotation. If he shows he can be relied upon to start and If they intend to use 2022 to develop pitching prospects, he could bridge the gap until additional prospects are ready. A reliable starter in his final year of arbitration to bridge the gap until a prospect pushes their way on to the team would be a nice asset. Filling one of those spots for roughly $3M leaves more budget for a front of the rotation SP or a SS.

I would hope they would wait until the end of the year to draft a “blueprint”. They are evaluating quite a few SP and RPs the rest of the way. Once that is done they will need to decide if they can realistically build a contender this off-season. I am not sure what that blueprint looks like but it looks unlikely to me. From there the blueprint takes shape based on how willing they are to allocate time at the big league level to prospects. Here is what I think that looks like. Position players - Start by trading Donaldson in the off-season and Miranda spends all or most of 2022 at the ML level. Martin still needs to prove he is ready. That might not be until June. I don't see Lewis here until 2023. They either go with a stop gap SS or give Palacios a chance. They could possibly trade Arraez for a SS that is blocked or a top pitching prospect if you can get it. Starting pitching – Sign a quality veteran for 2022 and beyond. He can lead and between him and Ober you have a start. Hopefully Ryan will establish himself over these last few weeks. This would be the idea year for a good bounce back candidate. They would get every chance here given the wide open rotation. The bounce back candidate or Dobnak or perhaps both get a shot at the start of the season. Prospects are shuffled in as they prove to be ready. I hope that includes Winder / Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Enlow / SWR and maybe Cole Sands. RP – Rogers / Duffey / Alcala / Minaya is a good start. There is nothing wrong with the way these guys have pitched of late. I would put Jax in the BP and see how that works. Thielbar / Columbe / Garza are serviceable. We need to add a good LH RP. Is this a formula to contend? Of course not but 500 is realistic. There is no good plan for building an entire SP staff capable of realistically contending in one off-season. However, they could position themselves to realistically contend in 2023. Get Cave and Simmons out of this lineup replaced with Kirilloff / Garlick or Larnach and a decent hitting SS and we have a good lineup. By the end of 2022, Ober / Ryan should be sufficiently seasoned. It’s reasonable that at least one of Winder / Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Enlow / SWR gets established in 2022. Having moved Donaldson (partial salary) and declining Sano’s option we will have plenty of salary room to add a top SP via free agency. Perhaps Jose Berrios. Of course, they have to be willing to play here but establish the rest of the rotation with prearb guys will be a scenario we have not seen here in recent or even distant memory.

I was basically agreeing with you from a slightly different angle.

A. Are we trading Rogers / Duffey / Thielbar / Polanco / Kepler / Arraez / Garver / Donaldson and Sano. If not, how is this a rebuild? B. Many players care 1st about money and 2nd playing where they are comfortable. There are plenty of players with better track records than Buxton who stayed with a team because they simply preferred to stay. Players don't like their lives disrupted and a dollar in MN is the same as a dollar anywhere else, tax rates not withstanding.

Retooling for 1 year and a complete rebuild are two very different things. Pretending we can rebuild a complete rotation in one year is a good way to prolong the process.