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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    You are making wild assumptions. You said .... "I like Winder and probably wouldn't trade him, but you just compared 54.2 innings to a whole bunch more. Kind of cherry picked there, how about comparing AAA numbers?" My statement was pretty clear. It makes no sense to look at 17 IP at AAA when he was hurt. Turning this into not worrying about his limited IP at AA or suggesting I am making him out to be a "can't miss" is awfully dramatic. My guess is none of the prospects w/o ML experience are starting the season with the team. The 1st 6-8 weeks of the Milb season is going to be an audition to determine who comes up first. However, it's possible one of these prospects looks great in spring training and goes north with the team. It's not like they can't send him down in 6 weeks and give someone else a shot.
  2. Major League Ready
    He only had 4 games at AAA. They moved him up and his velocity and command dropped off right after being promoted so his AAA numbers are not very meaningful.
  3. Major League Ready
    I go the Milb package specifically to watch our top prospects.. Quite often I only watched the pitching side of the inning and I too watched most of Winder's games. He was quite dominant. There is a good chance he is the next man up and maybe even out of spring training if he looks good.
  4. Major League Ready
    Montas and Berrios had exactly the same WAR last year. We got SWR and Martin for a year and 2 months of Berrios but the exact same players for 2 full years of Montas would be a VAST overpay?
  5. Major League Ready
    I think by the end of 2022 we will finally be able to grade that trade. I am betting Alcala will be a dominant RP this year we saw at the end of 2021 and we have him for 4 more years. I think we see quite a bit of Celestino too.
  6. Major League Ready
    IDK about this year but beyond 2022 I suspect at least a couple of our SP prospects are going to have a significant role in the BP. Who knows, Jax might be good in the BP. I think Valimont is best suited to be a RP. I am hoping Strotman finds the command necessary to be a SP but he might be a RP. The big one is obviously Duran. I sure hope he is a front of the rotation SP but if not he might be a shut down RP. I also think we are going to see fewer SP and RPs in traditional roles. There are going to be more 2, 3, and 4 inning pitchers.
  7. Major League Ready
    That's seems like an extreme long-shot and we would still be trying to establish a rotation in 2023. We would also not get the Abs needed to establish Miranda / Martin or the OF candidates. I would much prefer a full season to audition as many players as possible and go into 2023 with some new talent with some ML experience and a good understanding of what needs to be done in the off-season to be a legit contender.
  8. Major League Ready
    If they added 4 arms over even the next year and a half and a couple of them were legit #2-3 we would be in very good shape for the next 6-8 years. Trade away the wrong two like we did with Ynoa and Gil and the equation changes substantially. The problem is that we could pick the prospects among them most likely to succeed and so can the teams trading away established pitchers. They are not trading those established pitchers unless it's for the most likely to succeed among our prospects. Getting Two good established pitchers would likely cost four of our top six pitching prospects. If we established 4 prospects in addition to Ryan and Ober there would be no need to add any pitching via free agency other than a top of the rotation guy for the next several years. They are talking this approach because the payoff is a 6+ year window. The alternative is two years with a modest shot at contending. The Padres who had the best farm system in baseball used that depth to trade for 3 starting pitchers. They won 79 games. We heard the same endorsements of trading for Snell and Darvish. Those two surely do not look like reliable difference makers and the Padres are stuck with this strategy because neither pitcher is worth more than their salary at this point. Darvish was replacement level for the entire 2nd half. They traded away 10 prospects on this bet. Maybe we should sign Musgrove as a FA next year! If they build an entire staff from within, they would have about $60M (post Donaldson) to spend on a top of the rotation guy and a SS. If Lewis turns out to be our SS, they would have another $30M to fill holes. That's how you follow the Tampa / Oakland model but also take advantage of our added financial resources. Oakland has the best record of below average revenue teams and the most 90 win seasons over the past 20 years because they trade 2 year assets for 6 year assets so why should we do the opposite?
  9. Major League Ready
    Bauer was acquired after his first season in which he was below replacement level. Kluber and Carrasco were prospects that had never pitched in the majors. The trades being suggested here suggest trading prospects for established players which is an entirely different strategy. While they are both trades, one could argue that trading for prospects is and entirely different strategy than trading prospects for established players. If you look at Oakland and Tampa’s rosters over the years you will see that trading for prospects had a huge impact on their success.
  10. Major League Ready
    Winder was going to be the next man up. Do we know if he is healthy or is this something we won't know until spring training?
  11. Major League Ready
    The only place I would be less inclined to spend that kind of money is 1B.
  12. Major League Ready
    Mooney's K rate is really impressive. What's his velo on his FB and does he have a plus pitch among his other offerings?
  13. Major League Ready
    Most of the talk here has been about SPs with 1-2 years of control. I am sure we would all welcome another Maeda or Odorizzi deal. The only way they are getting 3+ year players is to trade away multiple top prospects. I have said it before and will say it again the logic that we have not succeeded in the past at best practices (developing pitching) means we should pursue inferior strategies just drives me crazy. The solution is not to follow bad practice. That's a horrible plan. History is very clear that developing pitching is crucial to success so get better at it. Change the people. Change the practices. Change things until you are at the top of the industry at what matters most. BTW ... it looks like they have improved. We are about to find out and trading away those assets right now is about as ill-advised as it gets.
  14. Major League Ready
    I agree when the trades give you a good shot at contention. However, trading away significant assets to get to 500 or slightly above is a really good way to stay mediocre or worse. Oakland and Cleveland have by far the most 90 win seasons among below ave revenue teams over the past 20 years. Is Oakland making trades to supplement their 86 win team last year? No. They are trading away the players many think we should be acquiring. Why? Because they understand being a little better short term will hurt them long-term.
  15. Major League Ready
    Standing pat would be to run Happ and Shoemaker out there as SPs and Simmons as the SS and whoever in LF. They are actually going to change a great deal but that change is going to occur over the course of 2022 and into 2023. That change just does not compute if your sole focus is opening day 2022.
  16. Major League Ready
    I have posted the production of 5+ year free agent SPs more than once. I am not going to go through that exercise again but I will summarize by saving 3 WAR season are unusual. Perhaps more importantly to the Twins, their production after the 1st year is downright horrible and beyond year 3 they are a serious detriment outside of a couple truly elite SPs (Scherzer/Greinke/Verlander) who defy the normal decline. History also shows us that successful teams of similar revenue have never been a product of high-end / high dollar free agent SPs. Yet, many here insistent we sign them now so we have them when we are ready to contend. This is a horrible strategy. Given the 1st 2 seasons are by far the best and they are generally a detriment the last 2-3 years, it is crucial to sign them when the team is in a window of contention. I would welcome examples of success stories from anyone who disagrees.
  17. Major League Ready
    Have to agree, what's the rush and why get ahead of ourselves? 2022 is going to be the year to figure these things out. The best case scenario is Donaldson plays well enough to be attractive in trade after Miranda has shown he is for real.
  18. Major League Ready
    Here are the winning percentages and number of 90 win seasons for all of the teams with similar or less revenue since 2000. The Padres and Rockies are closest to the Twins in revenue. The only team with a worse record over the past 2 decades would be the Royals. Anyone who cares to actually know the facts about roster construction should go to Fangraphs and look at the years these teams won 90 or more. Look at the players that contributed 1.5 WAR or more. Then, if you don't know how they were acquired go to BB Reference. What you will find is that internally developed players and players acquired as prospects or before they ever produced a 1.5 WAR season dominate the acquisition methodology. You will see virtually no high-end free agent SPs. The only one I can think of is the Dbacks got Greinke in 2016 when they signed the big TV contract. The won 69 / 93 / 82 games with him and traded at 2019 deadline. They were knocked out in the first round in 2017. I don't understand why people don't actually look at how these teams were built before taking a hard stance on how it should be done. There are 51 90+ win seasons. I welcome anyone to show us all the teams that got there with high end free agent pitching. Oakland .535 10 Indians .516 9 Twins .502 6 Mariners .480 4 Dbacks .490 4 Brewers .488 4 Rays .507 3 Reds .481 3 Orioles .459 2 Pirates .452 2 Marlins .480 1 Padres .476 1 Rockies .489 1 Royals .442 1
  19. Major League Ready
    If they did what most people want them to do we would be in serious trouble beyond the short-term.
  20. Major League Ready
    You are right in that it should not be limited to the AL central. The appropriate sample set would be teams of equal or less revenue. Teams with enough incremental revenue to pay for a top starter and have the twins revenue left over are not equivalent samples. Also, the outcry here is not simply for free agents but high profile free (20M+ AAV) type free agents. If there are many examples, you should not have a hard time listing several. It would be great to see these examples instead of just making unsubstantiated proclamations. The only impactful free agent SP I can think of that made an impact for a below average revenue team was Charlie Morton's 6 WAR season. He signed for 2/30 so while 15M is a fairly substantial AAV, a $30M contract can hardly be considered a "big signing". Looking forward to your examples.
  21. Major League Ready
    Bringing up a guy who has missed two years because we are tired of waiting for him is not exactly good development practice. I guess it's just fine for a fan but absolute incompetence for an organization.
  22. Major League Ready
    The same people saying we have to trade for SPs are saying we are going to lose 90-100 games if we don't. So, how many games difference can we make signing a couple SPs like Montas? That does not even get us to 500. How is it a good plan to trade away guys who could give us 6+ years for 2 years of control so that we can be a 500 team?
  23. Major League Ready
    No but so what. How does the fact that we lost 2020 not impact our prospects because it also impacted other prospects?
  24. Major League Ready
    #3 &#4 are huge! People may not like it but I believe the FO is managing toward this goal. It's going to be really exciting to see if they can transition multiple pitchers this year. It's going to be a lot of fun because there is going to be much more than that day's game on the line when these prospects take the mound.
  25. Major League Ready
    It will be definitely be more interesting to watch prospects than mediocre veterans and a lot better than watching Shoemaker and Happ last year. It will also be really exciting if some of these guys step up. If that happens, we are going to be positioned well for the next several years.
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