Major League Ready

Here are the winning percentages and number of 90 win seasons for all of the teams with similar or less revenue since 2000. The Padres and Rockies are closest to the Twins in revenue. The only team with a worse record over the past 2 decades would be the Royals. Anyone who cares to actually know the facts about roster construction should go to Fangraphs and look at the years these teams won 90 or more. Look at the players that contributed 1.5 WAR or more. Then, if you don't know how they were acquired go to BB Reference. What you will find is that internally developed players and players acquired as prospects or before they ever produced a 1.5 WAR season dominate the acquisition methodology. You will see virtually no high-end free agent SPs. The only one I can think of is the Dbacks got Greinke in 2016 when they signed the big TV contract. The won 69 / 93 / 82 games with him and traded at 2019 deadline. They were knocked out in the first round in 2017. I don't understand why people don't actually look at how these teams were built before taking a hard stance on how it should be done. There are 51 90+ win seasons. I welcome anyone to show us all the teams that got there with high end free agent pitching. Oakland .535 10 Indians .516 9 Twins .502 6 Mariners .480 4 Dbacks .490 4 Brewers .488 4 Rays .507 3 Reds .481 3 Orioles .459 2 Pirates .452 2 Marlins .480 1 Padres .476 1 Rockies .489 1 Royals .442 1

If they did what most people want them to do we would be in serious trouble beyond the short-term.

You are right in that it should not be limited to the AL central. The appropriate sample set would be teams of equal or less revenue. Teams with enough incremental revenue to pay for a top starter and have the twins revenue left over are not equivalent samples. Also, the outcry here is not simply for free agents but high profile free (20M+ AAV) type free agents. If there are many examples, you should not have a hard time listing several. It would be great to see these examples instead of just making unsubstantiated proclamations. The only impactful free agent SP I can think of that made an impact for a below average revenue team was Charlie Morton's 6 WAR season. He signed for 2/30 so while 15M is a fairly substantial AAV, a $30M contract can hardly be considered a "big signing". Looking forward to your examples.

Bringing up a guy who has missed two years because we are tired of waiting for him is not exactly good development practice. I guess it's just fine for a fan but absolute incompetence for an organization.

The same people saying we have to trade for SPs are saying we are going to lose 90-100 games if we don't. So, how many games difference can we make signing a couple SPs like Montas? That does not even get us to 500. How is it a good plan to trade away guys who could give us 6+ years for 2 years of control so that we can be a 500 team?

No but so what. How does the fact that we lost 2020 not impact our prospects because it also impacted other prospects?

#3 &#4 are huge! People may not like it but I believe the FO is managing toward this goal. It's going to be really exciting to see if they can transition multiple pitchers this year. It's going to be a lot of fun because there is going to be much more than that day's game on the line when these prospects take the mound.

It will be definitely be more interesting to watch prospects than mediocre veterans and a lot better than watching Shoemaker and Happ last year. It will also be really exciting if some of these guys step up. If that happens, we are going to be positioned well for the next several years.

I would not give up on Dobnak just yet but I don't see the point of continuing the Thorpe experiment unless his velocity and command look good. Maybe he can dial it up a notch out of the BP. 2022 is time to test the other guys you mention so we are not still trying to figure it out in 2023.

I think the Twins and the league are going to have a lot of non-traditional pitchers. The really top guys will continue to be managed in a relatively traditional role. There will also be guys that pitch in 2-4 innings or even 5 on occasion and a few one inning guys. a 13 pitcher staff might look like this ... #1 - Traditional Starter #2 - Traditional Starter 6-7 - Pitchers who pitch 2-5 innings per outing RPs - 3-4 guys who pitch one inning at a time. Canterino / Strotman / Vallimont and a number of our other prospects might get their start in a 2-5 inning role and hopefully grown into a traditional role.

Are we talking about the same thing ... This debate started with someone suggesting we get a high end SP now because they are available while acknowledging that contending this year is definitely a long-shot. The theory being we are trying to build a contender. Are we working from the same premise?

Great interview Seth! Really interesting to hear from someone who has seen a lot of these prospects. It was also encouraging to hear good things about so many of these prospects.

Lewis and Duran. Lewis because we badly need a long-term SS. Duran because he has the highest ceiling among our SP prospects. These two guys reaching their potential would be huge. They both also have question marks and hopefully their arrival would be a product of them harnessing that potential.

I just don't know how to explain it in terms you will acknowledge. The debate is signing players a year or more before the team is ready to contend because then you will have them when you are ready. If this is a good idea is 100% the product of how they perform after that 1st year, There is zero "painting with a broad brush or taking least desirable traits. Please PLEASE explain to me how it is not appropriate to look at ALL of the performance after the 1st year when the entire debate is the wisdom of signing players before the team is positioned to contend. The only thing that matters is their performance after year 1 in the context of this debate. Example: Let's take the 3 big SPs / Price / Cueto / Samarzija / from 2016 now that we have full history. Price and Cueto were great in their first year. Would that make a difference if the rest of the team was not ready to contend. After that 1st year the 3 of them produced exactly 1 impact season above 3 WAR and 11 seasons at 1.5 or less. These are not outliers. This pattern is common among all of the 5+ years SPs in recent free agent history. I won't even go so far as to say this is conclusive but if you look at the history and don't question this strategy you have to have an extreme unwillingness to consider what history implies about this strategy.

I went back and found the data I put together in 2019. There just have not been that many SPs that have gotten five years or more but the production past year 1 and espcecally past two years is horrible. 2012 Alber Pujlos 10/240/AAV 24 WAR 3.3 / .5 / 2.7 / 1.6 / .7 / -1.9 / -.2 / -.4 / .2 / -.2 Ave .59 / 40.77M per 1WAR Prince Fielder 9/214/AAV 23.77 WAR 5.0 / 2.7 / -.4 / 2.0 / .7 / -1.9 / 0 / 0 / 0 Ave .95 / 26.75M per 1WAR Jose Reyes 6/106/17.66AAV WAR 3.8 / 2.5 / 3.8 / .7 / 1.5 / 2.0 / Ave 1.75 / 10.09.75M per 1WAR CJ Wilson 5/77.5/AAV 15.5 WAR 2.2 / 3.2 / .7 / 1.5 / 0 / Ave 1.52 / 10.19.75M per 1WAR .73 WAR/yr after year 2. 2013 Zack Greinke 6/206/AAV 34.4 WAR 3.5 / 4.3 / 5.4/ Opted out in 2016 Josh Hamilton 5/125/AAV25 WAR 1.3 / 1.1 / .4 / 0 / 0 Ave .56 / 44.46M per 1WAR Anibal Sanchez 5/80/AAV 16 WAR 6.0 / 3.2 / 1.0 / .8 / .4 Ave 2.28 / .73 WAR/yr after year 2 Melvin Upton 5/72.5/AAV 14.5 WAR -.9 / 0 / 1.5 / 1.3 / 0 Ave .38 / 38.16M per 1WAR 2014 Robinson Cano 10/240/AAV 24 WAR 5.6 / 2.8 / 6.2 / 3.1 / 2.9 / .8 / 1.4 / 0 Jacoby Ellsbury 7/153/AAV 21.1 WAR 3.5 / 1.1 / 1.7 / 1.6 / 0 / 0 / 0 Ave 1.131 Shin-Soo Choo 7/130/AAV 18.6 WAR .4 / 3.4 / .6 / .5 / 2.4 / 1.7 / 0 Ave 1.5 / Brian McCann 5/85/AAV 17 WAR 2.3 / 2.9 / 1.3 / 1.7 / .5 Ave 1.74 / 9.77M per 1WAR 2015 Max Scherzer has been great. Jon Lester 4/9 / 4.2 / 2.9 / 1.8 / 2.7 / .3 A difference maker the 1st two years and a solid pitcher the remainder of the contract James Shields .8 / -1 / -.2 / 1.2 / 0 Averaga of .225 WAR after year 1. Pablo Sadoval – 5 yrs/$95M Played below replacement level 2016 David Price 7/217/AAV of $31M – WAR 4.4 / 1.5 / 2.4 / 2.3 / 0 / .7 an average of 1.88 total and 1.38 after the 1st year. Chris Davis has been below replacement level. Jason Heyward has had 1 year over 2 WAR (2.1 in 2018) Johnny Cueto 4.9 / 1.2 / .3 / 0 / .5 / 1.5 Average .7 WAR after year 1. Justin Upton 7 Yrs/ $150M 1/9 / 5.2 / 2.9 / -.3 / -.1 / .3 Still has 1 year left Jordan Zimmerman 1.4 / 1.2 / 1.0 / 1/3 / 1.2 Did not have even 1 good year Jeff Samardzija 2.2 / 3.8 / -.1 / 1.5 / -.5 Average WAR of .3 after first two years 2017 did not have much. The top 3 in AAV were Cespedes / Chapman and Fowler. Cespedes has produced 2.5 total WAR for 2017-19. Chapman produced 5.3 WAR so he has been good, not great. Fowler has averaged exactly 1 WAR over 3 years. Jansen was great in 2017 and has produced a total of 1.5 WAR over the past two seasons. 2018 Yu Darvish 6/126/AAV 25 – Obviously added nothing to 2018. Was mediocre the 1st half of 2019 and hard a good 2nd half. Was great in the shortened 2020 season and the 1st half of 2021. Was terrible the 2nd half of 2021. Basically, he has had one good season where he was good all year and that was the Covid year. Arrieta – 3/75/AAV 25 – Produced 1.9 WAR in 2018 and 1.1 WAR in 2019 and .5 in 2020. The guy we settle for (Odorizzi) produced 2.6 WAR in 2018 and 4.3 WAR in 2019. Carlos Santana / Wade Davis & Alex Cobb – All serviceable but not much above replacement level.

Back when I did this two years ago, I literally took every 5+ year free agent SP so it's hardly cherry picking. I posted those results here and as I recall the average war after the first year was 1.2 WAR which is obviously extremely poor. Wheeler / Eovaldi were new deals then so I did not consider them. No Grienke was not good the first year but please tell me how that is relevant when the basis of their value beyond year 1 has literally nothing to do with their 1st year performance. The entire point is their value after year 1 when the debate is the validity of signing a SP a year or two early.

I took literally every free agent SP with the appropriate profile. I then simply removed the first year which could not possibly be more consistent with answering the question of is it it good idea to sign pitchers a year or two in advance of the team being in a position to contend. I noticed you are completely avoiding any conversation about the fact that the SPs who have completed 5+ year contracts over the past 20 years have performed very poorly outside of the first year and especially the first two years. What could be more valid than how these FAs performed outside the first year when assessing a strategy to sign them a year or two before the team is ready to contend?

Are you really going to tell me this year is the year that should be expected or that they even have a realistic chance. You are pushing the concept to absurdity.

No doubt we disagree. The difference is you have come to a conclusion based on assumption on the relative merit of this strategy. After reading this same idea here in the past, I was curious as to how the strategy would have worked out historically. More specifically, it made sense to determine how well the FAs did after the first year of their contract before drawing any conclusions as to its merit. Other than a couple truly elite guys (Scherzer / Greinke) the production from these contracts after the first year has been horrible. This is hard fact if you are actually willing to look at the facts. If you go purely on past results it would be gross incompetence to sign this specific type of free agent in a year when a team is not a realistic contender. It’s a small sample size so I would not hold to rigidly to what this data suggests but it certainly illustrates why teams don’t sign top free agents SPs until they believe they are ready to contend. If you have examples of success stories, go ahead and make your case with actual evidence. Right now you are telling me something has to me done where the facts strongly dispute your opinion.

And you are simply avoiding hard fact or at a minimum history. I have listed the history of free agent SPs by WAR. I am not going through the effort again but the production is horrible after year 2. If free agents SPs perform by far better the 1st two years, why would you want to sign them when you are a year away from contention best case scenario and most likely case scenario 2 years. Congratulations. You wasted the years when they were productive and now you have their expense prohibiting you from adding them when it would make a difference. You have a concept / assumption. I have proven that assumption to be invalid you are just ignoring fact/history and telling me something has to be done without any data to support your position.

I think Pillar or Herrera would be good additions. However, you were looking well beyond 4th OFers in the original post and previous comments which is what I found objectionable.

Hopefully Lewis is our SS for many years. If not, let's hope he is our Chris Taylor. That would be good too.

Your frame of reference in planning is one year. The FO frame of reference is what is the best way to build a contender. Many teams plan to develop a contender by investing years in development. In this case, a very reasonable plan is to invest one year in order to be a contender for several years. Taking development time away from players that are ready in a year where the odds of contention are very low is a really good way to never build a real contender.

I have previously posted the specific result of ever free agent SP that signed a 5 year or more deal in the past 20 years. I am not guessing or assuming. As best I can recall there average WAR after the 1st year was 1.2. I went back to 2012 and there are not that many. Take a look at David Price / Johnny Cueto / Jeff Samardzija / Jordan Zimmerman / Anibal Sanchez / CJ Wilson. There contracts have run there course. Darvish has never been the answer. He has never put together a full year. Arietta got a short deal on a high AAV. He was never better than mediocre. Bumbgarner has been bad. More recently Patrick Corbin started out great and sucks now. Even Jon Lester was only good for the first half of his deal and then became a detriment. The history is quite clear that free agent pitchers are less and less likely to be productive as their contracts age.. You want to know why this team and other teams wait until they are poised to contend to sign them... This is the answer. You are welcome to assume they just don't understand how to build a team if you like.

And where did I ever suggest high starters would sign a 2 year deal?