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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Ryan for Cruz was a fantastic trade. Getting out of the Donaldson contract while getting Urshela and Sanchez was darn good. Duran for Escobar is looking good as well. The Sonny Gray trade could come back to bite us but it will be 4 or 5 years before we can really assess that one.
  2. Major League Ready
    His career OPS against LHP is 685 and wRC+ is 88. I would rather have Garlick on the bench with all the other LH hitting OFers. Garlick's OPS against LH pitching is 839 and a wRC+ of 126.
  3. Major League Ready
    I posted the exact same position as Mike. No way would I have traded Arrez for Lopez straight-up. Those prospects absolutely made me change my tune. Success for a team with a significant revenue disadvantage is absolutely dependent on acquiring/developing prospects regardless of its via draft or trade. Nothing is remotely close in terms of importance. So, to place no value on prospects would pretty much guarantee failure on a long-term basis.
  4. Major League Ready
    Thanks for this comment. The total emphasis on immediacy absolutely blinds many people. How many examples are there of guys like Tatis Jr or Corey Kluber? Our own Jhoan Duran took 2 1/2 years. A year or 3 years is far less relevant than what they turn out to be. I would much rather wait 3 years for a guy that produces 5 WAR than get a 2.5 WAR guy that's ML ready.
  5. Major League Ready
    I read the one from fangraphs that someone linked earlier. It made me feel pretty good because there was no emotion involved. It was a well thought out and well-crafted assessment of the trade. There were a couple others that had a similar point of view but were not articulated as well as the Fangraphs piece.
  6. Major League Ready
    IDK if they simply are not willing to sign a SP to a long-term deal. However, it's been a very long time since this team had so many positions covered by low-cost players. They project right at $100M for 2024 assuming they trade Kepler or don't pick-up his option. That's estimating Lopez at $8.5M. An additional $15M or $20M or even $25M for him or Nola / Severino / Mahle is just not a problem provided the other spots in the rotation are covered by some combination of Ryan / Ober / SWR / Varland / Canterino / Festa / Raya / Prielipp / Balazovic. That still leaves them room to cover arbitration increases and fill a BP spot. Farmer and Polanco will also be replaced by prearb players so that's another $13M that will become available. This FO has never been in this position, so I am not going to assume they won't sign someone when they have never been in a parallel situation. Nobody thought they would sign a $200M free agent either. The dream scenario for me is they get Nola next year. That gives them Nola / Lopez / Ryan and two of Paddack / Ober / SWR / Varland / Winder / Canterino / Balazovic and perhaps Festa / Prielipp and Raya by sometime during 2024. That should result in very good depth and a couple guys moving to the BP.
  7. Major League Ready
    I pay much more attention to what the national guys think. They are far more objective.
  8. Major League Ready
    It's nice to see that the some of the national writers believe this deal pretty heavily favors the Twins. I have been an advocate of trading Arrez for all the reasons mentioned here and the articles about the trade as long as the return was strong, and this was a very good return. I see it as fairly close to a wash short-term but two high ceiling / athletic prospects could make this very favorable long-term.
  9. Major League Ready
    Having a rotation of #3 starters gives you a good chance of making the post season. The problem is matching up in the post season once you get there. Arraez was just not good enough to get an Ace. It takes a package that is really going to hurt to get an ace and we can't make team's agree. They want to keep them as badly as we would like to acquire them. The return of a very good pitcher a top 100 prospect and a third player with a high ceiling is a very good return. Obviously, this trade has the potential to good badly just like any other trade. However, the addition of two high ceiling prospects provides the potential for this trade to be very productive trade for the Twins. I hate to lose Arraez but this is the type of deal, especially with Julien, Martin, and Lee getting close, that can make us better for many years.
  10. Major League Ready
    Will they try to extend him? Does this result in Martin or Julien making the team this spring.
  11. Major League Ready
    Pitchers get hurt. Texas traded Clause for Kluber and got nothing. SanDiego traded multiple players for Clevinger and got nothing. Sale has been hurt. Johnny Cueto was hurt or underperformed 5 of his 6 year contract, etc. There is some luck involved.
  12. Major League Ready
    Is an exact balance ideal. Wouldn't it would be advantageous to start the game with an extra RH bat if they had someone on the bench that fit that role and then substitute that person out later in the game as the situation dictates. They have an advantage in 2-3 ABs and then substitute later in the game back to a balanced line-up. When they make that substitution, they gain one more AB with a favorable match-up.
  13. Major League Ready
    I hope they are able to pull off a trade for Arraez or Polanco but it makes more sense to wait until the deadline. It's a lot easier to let one of them go if Kirilloff is healthy and/or one of Martin or Julien is up and playing well. This is how the Rays and As compete. They do it over and over while we say we can't produce young talent like them. Why can't we use depth like they do to bring in additional young talent?
  14. Major League Ready
    Could not agree more. Trading a great player with 3 years of control for a player with 2 years of control is bad to start with but the whole point is to get that player that truly makes a difference. Lopez is not that player. I would rather take my chances with Eury Perez if they would trade him.
  15. Major League Ready
    It took Carlos Gomez 5 years to figure it out. Adell has a little over 1 year of service time. Point being he would not be the 1st to turn it around but how long will it take?
  16. Major League Ready
    What if Max Meyer or Eury Perez were the main piece coming back? Add Joe Mack and I would jump on that deal.
  17. Major League Ready
    A couple years ago I read an article that listed the top international bonuses of all time. I looked all of them up and came to the conclusion it made absolutely no sense to sign the $4M+ players. The Twins history with the $2M plus guys certainly does not inspire confidence. Of course, they can't spend the entire allotment on guys that are $100K although I saw the Brewers had signed 29 guys. The best course of action based on the information I looked at a couple years ago would be to sign four or five guys from $500K to 1.5M instead of one at $4M. Then, spend a couple million on the $50-200K guys. Of course, that ideal scenario would be very difficult to pull-off when they are competing with 30 other teams for a limited number of prospects that get $500K-$1.5M.
  18. Major League Ready
    I read somewhere that they had a nutritionist for him. They also had a grand plan for him to get in shape the year they experimented with him in the OF. The appearance is that he is just not that committed. He repeatedly showed up for spring training out of shape even with 10s of millions on the line. Some guys are more committed than others. I Never liked the extension because he appeared to be someone who is not fully committed.
  19. Major League Ready
    IDK if they will sign a front of the rotation free agent. However, "thus far" we had never signed a $200M+ free agent like Correa either. We have not been in a position with this much young talent, especially pitching in a very long time. That has a dramatic impact on what they can afford to do. They had to spread out the money in the past. That simply is not the case presently and going forward. Next year, the payroll is around $92M, assuming one of Polanco or Arreaz and Kepler are gone. They need to retain some payroll capacity so that they can keep the team together but that would not prohibit them from signing a significant free agent SP. They could spend $30M on a pitcher and be $20M+ under the 2023 payroll.
  20. Major League Ready
    Sounds like much to do about nothing to me. Kirilloff is a 1B who can play the outfield. If he is healthy, the infield is likely 1B Kirilloff / 2B Polanco / 3B Miranda / SS Correa with Arraez and Farmer as utility players. Gordon can also cover the middle IF spots. So, there are really 7. Wallner for certain starts in AAA and Celestino likely joins him so we are down to 5. This is not a problem at all when there are only 2 catchers and a spot is not used by a primary DH. Should we feel bad about having depth at AAA? If Kepler gets traded there will be an article about us being vulnerable now citing all the injuries last year.
  21. Major League Ready
    I am trying to think of example where a pitcher that looked as good as Cabrera did in his first year got traded. He might have done too much to establish himself in terms of the Marlins letting him go unless the return is ridiculous. We would burn down Target Center if the twins traded away that kind of player, right? I just don't see him being traded unless the cost really hurts.
  22. Major League Ready
    I think you forget how many upper level players are signed or traded for that produce nothing. We have a couple on our own roster. Remember when people were really upset we did not get Bumgardner. Patrick Corbin is a bust. Chris Sale has not produced much since being extended. Johnny Cueto did very little 5 of his 6 year contract. Kluber got injured when when he went to Texas. He produced nothing and they gave up Clause in that trade. Clevinger went to SanDiego. Same story and they gave up Quantrill, Naylor and Miller for Clevinger. Kuechel was a bust. David Price was not much either. There are plenty of other examples. Davis / Pujlos / Elsbury, etc. This type of deal is exactly how a team with $300M in revenue competes with teams generating 50 to 100% more revenue. Obviously, if you have an extra $150M on payroll, you don't need to make these deals but we are not in that boat.
  23. Major League Ready
    How does that work? Would love to hear how a team with $270M in revenue can spend as much as a team with $600M+ in revenue. Please enlighten us?
  24. Major League Ready
    Knock on wood but it should be a longtime before the Twins need to resort to another Matt Shoemaker / JA Happ type of signing. Yes, Mahle/Gray/Maeda will be free agents next year. However, Ryan/Paddack/Ober/SWR and Varland give us 5 very low cost starters. They will have plenty of money to extend Mahle or sign someone at least as good. That gives us 6 deep, maybe 7 if Dobnak is serviceable and by then one of two of Canterino/Festa/Raya/Prielipp should be ready especially later in the 2024 season if (when) we have injuries..
  25. Major League Ready
    There is simply no need to be in a rush. I would hope they trade if and when they get a great return. We have so many question marks right now that it is very difficult to assess what's best long-term. Things will very likely be more clear at the deadline. Why not hold on and see what comes together and what does not come together. The one exception I see is Kepler. I don't see them picking up his option and we have young guys that should get a shot so let max go. I would also trade one of Arrez or Polanco IF the return was right. It makes absolutely no sense to trade away pitching right now. The demand / return is always there at the deadline. No way would I trade anymore prospects or prearb players for pitchers with 2 years of control. They spent plenty of long-term capital last year and got nothing for it. Lopez for Kepler is a different story. Try to extend him. Trade him if that does not come to fruition. We also can't say we just can't produce prospects like Tampa/Oakland if we are not willing to make the trades that have been a very big part of them producing more young talent than us and most of the rest of the league.
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