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Kepler has actually been pretty decent in June with a wRC+ of 110. Gallo has been the one that has really struggled lately with a wRC+ and I would be inclined to let Gallo go before Max. The best move IMO would be to cut Gallo now and bring up Wallner. Keep Max around until the deadline and reassess at that point. 1 Donovan Solano 80 17.5% 18.8% 0.93 .281 .425 .484 .909 .203 0.8 .326 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 15 5.4 .400 161 2 Royce Lewis 75 4.0% 25.3% 0.16 .333 .360 .472 .832 .139 3.3 .420 -0.1 0.2 0.0 12 2.7 .362 134 3 Edouard Julien 51 11.8% 33.3% 0.35 .289 .373 .422 .795 .133 4.6 .464 0.2 0.1 0.1 8 1.4 .351 126 4 Ryan Jeffers 46 10.9% 32.6% 0.33 .282 .364 .385 .748 .103 1.5 .458 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 6 0.6 .334 115 5 Max Kepler 55 7.3% 27.3% 0.27 .235 .291 .471 .761 .235 0.1 .250 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 7 0.4 .327 110 6 Carlos Correa 83 4.8% 26.5% 0.18 .228 .265 .494 .759 .266 3.2 .250 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 10 0.1 .320 105 7 Christian Vazquez 48 8.3% 18.8% 0.44 .233 .313 .395 .708 .163 1.0 .273 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 5 -0.6 .304 94 8 Kyle Farmer 52 5.8% 21.2% 0.27 .234 .308 .362 .669 .128 1.9 .286 0.5 0.2 -0.1 5 -0.8 .298 90 9 Trevor Larnach 25 12.0% 32.0% 0.38 .182 .280 .364 .644 .182 5.4 .231 0.0 0.1 0.2 2 -0.7 .285 81 10 Michael A. Taylor 66 0.0% 31.8% 0.00 .206 .215 .460 .676 .254 6.5 .231 0.1 -0.2 1.0 6 -2.0 .281 78 11 Willi Castro 69 5.8% 24.6% 0.24 .226 .290 .306 .596 .081 6.8 .289 0.3 0.4 0.7 5 -2.8 .268 69 12 Byron Buxton 40 5.0% 40.0% 0.13 .135 .200 .405 .605 .270 1.1 .111 0.3 0.1 0.0 3 -2.0 .258 62 13 Alex Kirilloff 73 6.8% 26.0% 0.26 .194 .260 .299 .559 .104 0.3 .255 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 4 -4.4 .245 53 14 Joey Gallo 38 5.3% 50.0% 0.11 .139 .184 .278 .462 .139 0.1 .250 0.0 0.1 0.0 1 -3.6 .202 23 15 Jorge Polanco 26 3.8% 19.2% 0.20 .120 .154 .320 .474 .200 0.1 .105 0.0 0.1 0.0 1 -2.5 .201 22

I think the discussion on this and many other players demonstrates that those supporting a transition to younger talent recognize that most prospects won’t become superstars. However, we also recognize things that you are ignoring. The relative certainty of Kepler / MAT or Gallo is even lower. We know what they are and they are not the type of player that elevates a team. These players tenure here will be short. Therefore, they offer nothing to sustained winning. Prospects like Wallner at least have a shot at being difference makers. Young players cost far less which provides payroll dollars to be used on filling holes as they did with Vasquez. Recognizing these things leads to the understanding that nothing is more important to developing a winner than developing young talent. The greater the revenue disparity the more essential it is to develop young talent. We don’t think these prospects will all become superstars. We just recognizing for the reasons above that hanging on to mediocre veterans when you have good young talent ready is a very good strategy if the goal is to remain mediocre.

I don't see the 40 man as being any problem. They have 7 expiring contracts and the only one among them I could see being resigned is Gray. There are 3 others (Sand / Henriguez and perhaps DeLeon) that would not be much of a loss. Martin and Enlow are the only two I can think of that need to be added but to be honest I have not looked yet. There are 43 guys on the 40 man and IL so they are going to have 7 open spots. I am sure there are a couple other beyond Martin and Enlow but it should not be a problem.

Are you saying that it can't be proven that Buxton won't add 9 wins if he continues to play the same way?

Agree on Gallo for sure. Not sure about Vasquez. I don't think Castro is the kind of player that brings much at the deadline. Plus, I really like the idea of having him on the bench for 2 more years. Polanco in due time. I am just not sure it's time yet. Of course, the right return could move up the right time.

I think we mostly agree. Trading short-term assets for long-term assets is far more important to sustained winning than trading prospects for proven players, especially for teams in the bottom two-thirds in revenue. Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran are examples on our team. They also need to balance winning in the present. It's a matter of how much do you invest or what type of returns do you forgo to win in the present. IMO, this team is not worthy of investment but I also would not sell off. The odds of them being truly competitive in the post season are very low. However, there is a small chance this roster comes together and they play competitive playoff baseball. For me that's not worthy of sacrificing much of the future but I would not totally give up on the present. Let's see what the situation looks like in 5 weeks and what type of offers we have for expiring contracts. Gray is the one guy likely to bring a return. He is also someone we will need to make a post season run which of course is why he would net a good return. We can make room by letting Kepler / Solano and Pagan go.

It's not the perfect stat but you just can't admit that the premise Buxton will make a 9 win difference playing as he has is absolutely absurd!

The FO view was that Buxton would produce as well or better than their other options at DH. That was a reasonable position when they made it, especially if the goal was to ease him back into a CF role. What is not a reasonable IMO is to look at what has actually happened and conclude the team is 3-5 games better off because of Buxton which is where this started. That's my only point and you want to make this about something else. I assume this is because you don't want to try to make the case that using the mid-point of your calculation would produce 9 WAR from a DH hitting exactly league average. Do you think it's reasonable to suggest that if Buxton's performance remains the same he will have been worth 9 WAR? Of course, the 9 WAR assumes a replacement level player took his place.

Kepler will need to have a major bounce back before the team considers exercising his option. The chances he is here next year are very slim. Polanco just needs to be healthy. Larnach and Wallner are not going anywhere because they are needed now and the future. Celestino isn't bringing anything on trade. Miranda is the only one with any mystery in terms of what they do with him, IMO. I can't see them selling low on him. Over the next 6 weeks I expect they continue to audition Headrick / Winder and DeLeon. Then, as the deadline nears we shall see how these guys are doing and if the team is looking like they have any chance to make a post season run.

I was against doing anything beyond shoring up the BP last year. I share your opinion that being in first place in a very bad division does not make them a real contender. It will put such a team in the playoffs and there is the argument that anything can happen but hoping a bad team is all the sudden good is not a good plan. I would have never made the Mahle trade. The thing that remains the same is that they do have a roster with potential, but they don't have much of a chance against the elite teams in the playoffs. While I would not invest a lot in such a team, I also would not be inclined to sell.

I could see it if they could get a big overpay but they are not going to just sell off. This team is underperforming offensively and there are a couple teams most years that get on track the 2nd half of the season.

IDK if it's his pace but I definitely noticed he left too many pitches over the heart of the plate.

No doubt we can't change what has happened. I also agree there is a good chance of different results going forward. However, I responding to your post that suggested "This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him." That's where we disagree. I think Julien or Wallner would have produced at least as well if not better.

If we use your mid point of 4 wins he would produce 9 wins for the season should he repeat his production to this point for the rest of the season. His wRC+ is 101 so he has been an average offensive player with no defensive value. Do you think we could produce league average offense or better out of the DH spot between Wallner / Julien or Larnach or a combination of those three and others? The way I see it he has had virtually no value this season. His .5 WAR also suggests he has produced very meager value this year.

Buxton was good the 1st 5 weeks of the season. Since 5/5 his wRC+ is 41. Willi Castro is 108. I am not inclined to say we are getting "plenty of value from Buxton just hitting". He is a black hole in the lineup the past 6 weeks.

Agree completely with every part of this post. I have wanted to get rid of Kepler for the last year. I just don't think creating a spot for Larnach is a reason to DFA him.

You might be right. None of us really knows but I tend to believe players are going to be very sympathetic to career preservation. That's the boat they are all in. Sure, they like to win but the opportunity for enormous money is their common interest. Kepler has proven to be an average or even slightly above average player. DFAing a proven player at this point in the season for an unproven rookie is questionable. Players definitely feel you earn the right to be there and Kepler has earned the right as compared to a player with 600 major league ABs and a career 2 WAR. Let me say again, it would not bother me one bit if they DFAed Kepler. I have been advocating trading him since last year. However, I also understand why they optioned Larnach instead of DFAing Kepler. Also keep in mind this tangent started with someone bitching about them "jacking around" Larnach. He has not earned the right to be here over a proven veteran just yet. I wish he would.

I wouldn't mind if they DFAed Kepler but that is not without ramifications. Other players probably would not react well to one of the longest tenured players on the team being cut in that matter. Especially given Larnach's performance is just not all that different from Kepler's if we consider Kepler's defense in the equation. It also could be the death of his career and other players are going to be sympathetic and biased. It also a permanent move. Depth will be lost. It's a somewhat reckless move given the much safer alternative of optioning Larnach.

He has been getting better and better offensively. The last 4 weeks his line is 286 / 400 / 531 with a 931 OPS. Who else do we have anywhere near a 400 OBP? The defense is bad and will hurt in run prevention, but the run creation will hopefully significantly outweigh the defense short cummings. It would appear that he has a better eye than a lot of the umpires. He has had a lot of bad calls. He will be even better if that does not happen quite as often as it has lately. BTW .... Coirrea's OPS over the past 4 weeks is .895. That's helping too. Now, if Buxton can get going we will really have something.

Larnach is 13th on the team in wRC+. Why should that level of performance guarantee him a roster spot? What roster move would you have made instead? Are you going DFA Kepler / Gallo / Salano / Farmer or MAT instead of sending Larnach down. Julien has been one of our best Offensive players and it makes sense that he be on the roster while Polanco is on the IL. Castro has been valuable in a number of ways. So, what would you have done? 1 Matt Wallner 215 2 Alex Kirilloff 143 3 Edouard Julien 139 4 Joey Gallo 124 5 Ryan Jeffers 119 6 Donovan Solano 117 7 Byron Buxton 114 8 Royce Lewis 110 9 Jorge Polanco 104 10 Kyle Farmer 103 11 Carlos Correa 101 12 Michael A. Taylor 97 13 Trevor Larnach 94 14 Willi Castro 94 15 Kyle Garlick 78 16 Max Kepler 76 17 Jose Miranda 66 18 Christian Vazquez 59

Why not just use Maeda in the BP?

Sure are a lot of people who want to compare Rosario after leaving to Rosario prior to leaving which is absolutely irrelevant. How has he been since leaving. The answer is he has been one of the worst corner OFers in the league. How could it possibly be a mistake to have moved on from a player that has absolutely sucked? We have not had great replacements for Rosario but pretty much everyone they have put out there have been better than Rosario has played since leaving. BA is a very incomplete measure of run production. It's actually pretty useless. Gallo's wRC+ is 123 this year. Rosario's is 84. Not only does his slugging justify the the BA discrepency, Gallo is a grossly superior defender. It's just shocking anyone can look at how Rosario has performed since leaving and come up with moving on from Rosario was a bad thing.

I am in the tough call camp. I would not rely on any of the potential replacements to be his equal. I have modest confidence if Lewis were to be the replacement. It comes down to return for me. Trading him at the deadline this year would require a nice return package. We can always revisit this next year. There is the depth argument. The replacements are all players that could contribute. If we can get a good return, building from within is ideal. That's how Tampa has been putting a great product on the field.

Everyone is raving about Skenes. Hard to imagine the two prep bats going in front of Skenes. Someone might get cute with an under slot signing in the first couple picks. However, he also might just go first overall, and he does not make it past the 3rd pick.

Less than a month away. Really excited to see what they get with those first 3 picks. It looks like they are going to get a prep player at 5. I am hoping a great college bat is there at 34. Yet, I would be happy to get Dillion Head (HS). My dream scenario is Langford falls in our lap at 5 and we get Dillion Head at 34. There are several pitchers that look good that generally mock from 42-55. Add Sykora/Owens or Sanders at 49 and that's one heck of a draft. I guess if we are dreaming of the perfect scenario Cameron Johnson is still there at 49.