Dman

I would never trade Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Trading Arraez for two years of a mid to back end starter seems like suicide to me. If they are going to trade Arraez at least make it for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential. If the Twins are not trading for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential I would just wait until the deadline and see what shakes out then.

I don't know what to think of Urbina just yet. There seems to be a fair bit of work to do. Until last year his K rate was under 20% and even last year it was only 23% so he is making contact just not solid contact. It feels like he might have a bit of Jose Miranda syndrome. Miranda was good at making contact, so good in fact he was able to hit balls outside the zone. The problem was he needed to swing at better pitches to increase his odds of better contact. Once he started walking more and being more choosey at the plate he had his breakout. I don't think that Urbina will ever have the power that Miranda has but I think if he wants to break out the solution would be to follow the Miranda plan. Make pitchers work and try and force them to give you your pitch. Urbina needs to be good in two strike counts. If Urbina can harness plate discipline I think he can be more Arraez like in that he has great contact skills always had and always will. By being patient he should find his way to solid contact and barrel more balls up. I think to breakout that is what it is going to take. Easier said than done. We will see if this is the year it all comes together. It seems like it took Miranda a while to get there so it might not be this year just yet.

I guess the FO knows what they are doing as they got Ortega, Enlow and Garlick through waivers. Nice to have all three off of the 40 man and if performing well enough available if injuries strike. I thought Enlow was gone for sure but I guess other teams saw what I saw.... a lot of hard hit balls. Hopefully things look better in year two after TJ.

Nice OP! The Twins don't "have" to trade Kepler they could play him or Gallo in left. I agree with this piece that Max has a good skillset but we have been waiting years now for the breakout after 2019 and it has been pretty much the same old, same old. He could still breakout and have an amazing season but generally old habits die hard. Still finding a right handed bat helps balance the roster. If the Twins can get an over pay then I think they should pull the trigger on a trade but I wouldn't trade Max just to trade Max.

I guess my main reason for wanting to keep Gordon is he can cover all three outfield spots. He has the arm for right, the speed for center and while not ideal in left, because he is not a power bat he can play there. I don't really trust Celestino as a viable bat at the MLB level just yet so I like knowing the Twins have Gordon there just in case. When\if the Twins get Lewis back then I think Gordon is more expendable. If Martin can prove is ready for the next step then I think Gordon is more expendable. Even last year I recommended trading Arraez or Gordon to remove the potential infield glut but after watching Gordon last year he really seems like a glue guy to me and the timing just doesn't feel right for trading him IMO. I think Farmer is a better option in the infield than Gordon and he brings a right handed bat which is important for this team but the one thing he can't do is play center and we have an injury prone center fielder on the roster. In the end if they traded Gordon I don't think it would be the end of the world and if it doesn't happen this year there is a good possibility it happens next year anyway. There isn't going to be room for everyone. Still the Twins like Gordon, his teammates especially Buxton like Gordon, so I just don't see them trading Gordon.

It seems there are a lot of different ways to approach international signings but I have to say this whole process confounds me. First taking a quick glance at most teams signings (don't have info on (LAD,MIA,PIT,STL,TEX) there are several teams (about 1/3) that just signed 1 player for about 3M to 4M or more (Cin,NYY,Oak,PHI,SD,SF,Sea,TB,Tor) and then a bunch of filler. So those teams are looking to essentially grab one highly rated player and a ton of lower level lottery tickets. So pretty much betting on the one player in a boom or bust scenario. The next most popular scenario appears to be to buy two or three 1M Dollar guys and supplement half a million dollar salaries or less and grabbing lots of players. (i.e. Ari,Bos,CHW,Cle,Det,KC,LAA,Mil,NYM,WSH). This spreads the risk to several athletes outside the top 20 but gives a team more chances to hit on athletes with good upside but maybe not showing elite talent at 16 years of age. Lot's of projection candidates in this range. The final scenario seems to be to get one guy in the 2 to 2.5M range and supplement another 1M player or several half million dollar players (i.e. Atl,Bal,CHC,COL,Hou). This is a scenario where teams seem to try to have their cake and eat it to. They sign an elite player and then an athlete or two with good upside and then a bunch of filler. The Twins fall in this range to an extreme this year as they appear to have signed 2 2M dollar players and third 1 million dollar player in an attempt to get two elite players in one draft and a solid player to boot. I like seeing the Twins going for the big talent this year but it is impossible to know how things will work out. One thing we know for sure is that no matter how much money gets thrown around only about 5% of these guys or less are going to make it. Not all the guys with the big signing bonuses are going to make it and not all the guys who got smaller bonuses are going to fail. It is way to hard to predict what is going to happen to 16 year olds over time but that is the system that is in place. The ratings are nothing more than somewhat logical guesses on current tools and body projection that could all change in a few years time. I had been told this quite a while ago but the Fangraphs article brought it to light again. Most of these deals are being made when these kids are actually only 14 years old. So my question is this. Do the various strategies above depend on the deals team were able to make when the players were 14 and let's say most of the player your team identified didn't quite turn out so you end up with lesser picks? Or do some teams muscle out other teams by spending essentially their whole international allotment on one player squeezing out other potential suitors? There seems to be a whole game with the game when it comes to international signings if you ask me. At any rate some of these guys are going to make it. I like the Twins picks this year though I wonder how they are going to fill out their team with so few picks this year since they blew most of their money on the first three picks. It might not be best for the players but it sure seems like a draft would be a better way to disperse international talent to MLB teams but that is just my opinion after looking into it.

Just an FYI things are lightning fast for me now. Thanks for all you do!

Have to agree pretty massive slowness for me so far. Certainly slower than the site used to run before. Delays are pretty significant for this day and age. They are sure they are not running on backup site or dial up? lol. This stuff can be tough but I can say I didn't expect it to be this slow.

Yeah I like this pick\signing for the Twins. He has one of the best bats in this years class. If you are going to take a guy with even just one good\plus tool I would make it the bat. Kid has a nice strong build to top it off and looks built for power so I like the odds. Still has to have a good eye at the plate and play defense and find ways to be the best of the best so as others have said a long ways to go. My first impression of this kid is a good one though.

Yeah that doesn't sound on the up and up does it. I have to agree with Boras which I am loathe to do but if that was what they were going to do then doesn't it follow that they were always gonna try and lowball Correa in some way? Why only half the contract value as well? They couldn't have done a deal like the Twins and pay for performance? Doesn't add up to me. Feels a little dirty but that is just my perception of it.

If he is willing to sign a minor league deal why not. He seemed to be getting better plate discipline but there is something off in his swing path or hand eye coordination as he swings through a lot of pitches. Also the umps do not seem to give him the benefit of the doubt on close calls. Maybe getting in line with the Robo umps could help him in the future. Twins don't have ton of right handed bats ready and no one coming up in the system for a while either. If Sano can perform at AAA then maybe he can thrive with a second chance?

I like the analysis but doctors have been right in the past especially Mets doctors as they nixed the trade for Paddack from the Padres and Paddack did end up needing TJ. Also a while back Houston got a ton of crap about trying to lowball Brady Aiken about likely needing TJ and he blew out his arm right away as well. As stated in the article doctors can be right and wrong we won't know for sure about Correa until the end of the contract.

With Garlick finally off the 40 man the Twins are down from 9 outfielders to 8 which is still too many outfielders to carry on the 40 man IMO. 6 would be ideal but 7 is fine. They really just need to trade Max unless they also want to bring in a right handed bat for the outfield. If they are fine with Farmer in a left field role then again they just need to remove one outfielder from the 40 man and they are fine. If the Twins do want to add a right handed bat to the outfield then they should probably look to trade Larnach or Wallner as well. They both appear to be similar players. I like that Larnach can hit oppo as I think that gives him a slight advantage bat wise but Wallner has the better arm. It is a tough call on that one but I think Larnach has more trade value and if they feel they want more 40 man room then I would look to trade him as well. Looking to next year as things stand they will likely need to add Rodriguez, Urbina, Martin and Maybe Severino so something is going to have give at some point. Personally I think they should move one of the outfielders and the only two that make much sense to move are Kepler and Larnach. We will see what Twins end up doing.

Wow If Paddack can return to form that is a huge get for the Twins. With 3 starters potentially gone after this year having Paddack for two more years should really help. If he doesn't return to form then that would be a bummer. Still I like this risk for the Twins. He was pitching really well before he went down and I think the Twins can help him regain his market value. Really need Varland and SWR to work out as the pipeline is getting thin on starting pitching, Paddack could help bridge the gap.

Yeah I went to Fangraphs and he seems to be rated their 2nd best shortstop. They have him with a 70 arm and like you said good foot speed and bat speed. I mean if you read between the lines the MLB writeup says he has a projected strong arm but they just give solid tools across the board description and they have him ranked 38th so not the ringing endorsement fangraphs gives Chivilli. After reading the fangraphs description you can't help but be super excited about the kid. It seems like the Twins have been going after some real solid young shortstops recently. Last year in the 2022 draft they grabbed Danial Omari who might have 4 out of 5 plus tools but there are questions about the bat. 2021 they grabbed Noah Miller who might not have a ton of plus tools yet but he is switch hitter and it looks like his defense is going to be good. The Twins are going to have some talented young players in the lower levels. Fangraphs is not quite as high on Castro as MLB.com. Looks like a more bat heavy prospect than one that is tooled up. Still he looks like a nice pick as I like bat first players. They seem to move faster. The catcher the Twins are picking does not seem to be on the fangraphs list but still nice the Twins are grabbing one. At any rate thanks for the info makes me feel better about Chivilli but all these guys have a long ways to go. Most of them won't get past the FCL or A ball. Those that make it past that have decent odds though. Pro ball is brutally tough as you keep going up against the best of the best.

Thanks for the info!! Recency bias has got me bit down on some of their SS picks. Really hope Chivilli turns out. The MLB article did say he has a lot of good projection but hard to judge at 17. Would have liked it more if they thought he had a plus bat but who knows he might have more plus skills as he develops.

Yeah Salas would have been a great get. Still Silva looks solid at least they are grabbing one of higher rated catchers for once.

If you go to https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2023/international/ you can see who is likely to sign with the Twins. Ariel Castro at number 11 Looks like the best of the bunch. Could be another Mercedes type pick. At 31 the Twins look to pick up one of the top catchers. Guy is only 5'9" with average tools but looks to have the arm to stick. At38 Hendry Chivili is there typical Shortstop pick that doesn't work out. He is a projection pick with average tools across the board right now. At 16 there is so much extra projection risk it is no wonder most of these guys flame out but the Twins balanced out their top picks pretty well this year. Here's hoping all three work out along with some lottery ticket types they pick up. Maybe another Arraez in there somewhere.

I have been watching Moran in the system for what seems like forever and have always been impressed with his K rate but the Walks eventually just brought my hopes for him down. I would not trust him in high leverage just yet but if he can harness his stuff just a bit more he could reach elite status. Been saying that for a long time and hopefully he is ready to prove he has the consistency to make it happen. We need all the great pen arms we can find.

I get your concern and don't disagree but Gray, Mahle and Ober all Spent time on the IL and Maeda is coming back from TJ surgery. While Lopez might be no better a pitcher he would be there for insurance. I wouldn't do the deal for Lopez if Arraez is included but Lopez sure could cover if the injury bug bites the Twins again.

I don't know if Arraez fits long term with the Twins or not and I get trading players at their peak value and this is Luis's peek value. However, it feels like dealing him this year is one year too early. Lewis is out until the end of the year. We don't know where Brooks Lee will land and Somewhat Luis clone with eye at the plate Jullien is unproven beyond AA. A lot of those questions should be answered after this year and then you could decide if there is still room for the little engine that could (Arraez). The Twins need his bat pretty badly this coming year and yes they could use better pitching as well but I think I would just hold off and see how things shake out and if needed do a deadline deal. I know that no one really wants Lopez but if the Twins can work a trade for Kepler and a little more to get him I think that would be prudent. When you look at the Berrios and Mahle deals they included players that were close to being MLB ready and players in or close to in the top 100. In this case the Marlins get an actual MLB player in Kepler and if they threw in Larnach who is technically another MLB player with lots of years of control and maybe a couple of lottery tickets that seems in range given some of these other deals. Don't like Larnach then how about Martin who is close to ready and can play infield and outfield. Maybe the Twins sweeten it by taking on some of the money to even the money out. I think that is a fair ask for two years of Lopez and that is something the Twins can afford IMO. If that isn't enough and it probably isn't then I am probably out on Lopez but if the Marlins can be flexible about working a trade around Kepler then I think that would help this team. Would a deal for Arraez to get Cabrera or Luzardo be worth it? Maybe. I don't know if I trust Luzardo but maybe Cabrera. Still Arraez would be a high price to pay and that is what it will cost to get one of those arms.

Correa just make this team stronger. Shortstop has generally always been a weakness for this club so turning that into a strength is important. I don't know why the bats were so up and down last year and why they seemed to fail with the bases loaded but there still is a lot of talent on offense and hopefully things go a bit better next year. The pen early and starting pitching after the deadline pretty much doomed this team. Buxton being hurt so early and trying to play through the knee issues hurt the team as well. Lot's of injuries last year so if they can just stay healthy and improve the pen a little this team should be fighting for the division. Without Correa this year was going to be tough. With him this team has a chance.

I could see them trading Kepler and Larnach. Kepler because he is redundant and Wallner could fill that spot if necessary. Larnach because I believe he has the most Value after Kepler. He was solid in left defensively and the bat looked very promising until he got hurt. I don't think Kirilloff has much value at this time because that wrist injury could be the end for him I doubt another team wants to take on that risk. Celestino is one of the few right handed outfield bats and he doesn't appear to have much power. Probably more valuable to Twins than someone else. His bat got so bad mid season we all want him starting in AAA this year. The tough one for me right now is Arraez. This team could use his discerning eye at the plate and ability to get on base but long term he is the odd man out. Seems more prudent to see how this team performs and make a decision at the deadline as he could be an important part of the lineup. That being said if he could fetch a difference making arm then they might need that more as I see needed games off for Gray, Mahle and Maeda. Trading Gray seems like it would be an odd move. They went all in to get this team to this point subtracting him makes no sense IMO. I don't think they have to get rid of any utility guys at this time. If Gordon is considered an outfielder then they have about right number on the 40 man. Other than Kepler and possibly Larnach it seems like they have time to wait before clearing things out for the infield or outfield. Still lot's of questions on Jullien, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Martin and arms Varland and SWR. Kirlloffs wrist and Larnach still hasn't completely proven himself. They get two 40 man spots back around spring training when Canterino and Paddack go on the injured list so there will be room to add yet. I am not convinced they will do a big trade but most years they do seem to get something done around spring training.so we will see.

Since Martin doesn't have much of a power profile and the other players do he seems like the odd man out to me. I would like to give him one more year before trading him though as his value is low right now. No one is blocking him until he performs better though. He could be a right handed Nick Gordon if the Twins hang onto him but he is definitely a wait and see for me. I like Lewis in the outfield especially in right field. If Buxton is hurt he can move to center. He has the arm and great range for right and his bat should fit the profile as well. He certainly could be used in the infield as well as needed but with Correa at short I see Lewis as an awesome defensive right fielder. Lee should be able to slot into whatever role he is needed in the infield. Being a switch hitter he is very valuable in the lineup. Depending on how the Twins like Miranda at 3rd he could take Polanco's spot at 2nd Hard to say but the Twins will find room for Lee. I think the Twins end up moving on from Kepler, Polanco and Arraez at some point so there would be room for these players if needed. They still have to prove they belong which is no easy task.

It is about time they moved an outfielder off the 40 man. I really liked how Garlick hit lefties and have to imagine a team will pick him up. Maybe the Twins can get something in trade for him yet.