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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Can't really replace a personality like Wes so that is a loss. Having an upbeat personality with lot's of positive energy really can help the confidence of those around you. That coupled with the knowledge he has of the body and he is going to be very, very tough to replace. I agree that his ability to communicate complex things in an easy manner made players more comfortable learning, growing and seeing results. He also like Rocco was really good at team building, being approachable and looking out for the health of the players. That being said there are lot's of great pitching coaches throughout the Majors and the Twins seem to be a team that can find coaches other teams overlook. Their coaches seem to get poached all the time. I hate to see Wes go but I also think the Twins will find a good replacement.
  2. Dman
    My thoughts exactly. Call me glass half empty but after the opening 11-1 win it feels like this team will get shutout with the bats going quiet the next few games. They really have a hard time staying consistent pitching or hitting and yet here they are 3 up in first place. I should probably just enjoy where the team is at but the baseball gods give and they take away. They gave a lot yesterday the take away can't be far behind.
  3. Dman
    I think because we need to free Beckham, Steer, Helman and Hamilton first because they all have higher OPS's than he does at AAA. While his average and OBP are good he is not hitting for enough power to play in right or left field IMO. He had a better slugging percentages when he was in the minors in 2017 and 2019. When his OPS was .985 in 2019 that is when he got called up to the Twins. If he gets back there I could see him being an option but right now the Twins are using Mark Contreras in the Jake Cave role who technically is playing worse at AAA than Jake. Maybe the Twins see some trade value left for Cave and don't want to risk adding him and losing him to wavers hard to say but I think Cave will move on after this year to an org that might need a decent 4th outfielder. I don't think the Twins are gong to have room with Larnach, Kepler, Buxton, Celestino, Kirilloff and possibly Gordon, Not to mention they will need room to add Wallner after this year. I like Cave more than most but I agree with some others who have said he was more of a break glass in case of emergency if the young guys failed to improve. It looks like Celestino, Larnach and Kirilloff have all shown enough now that he is likely not needed after this year. I would love to see him stay but I think he can play at the MLB level and just needs a chance to get back there.
  4. Dman
    For Wes this decision had to be a no brainer. Even if the Twins decided to match the salary it probably wouldn't have helped. In College he doesn't have to deal with a 162 game schedule. He won't have to travel as much so he will be home more. He will be making double what he is making right now. I think if a pitching coach can get that much money from a college program it would be almost impossible to turn down. Good for Wes he established a reputation as one of the better pitching coaches out there and now that hard work is paying off. It does stink that he is leaving in the middle of the season but I have to believe other coaches know how to use the latest technology to their advantage and the Twins have also been pretty good at finding coaches that are up to speed on the latest technologies. I will miss him but if I was in his shoes I would have done the same thing.
  5. Dman
    That is an excellent synopsis of this season so far. Thanks for that! Just when you think something good is happening something fails. Just when you resign the team to failure it finds success. Still this is much better than last year when they were out of it from the beginning. I feel for KC and Detroit but we paid our dues last year. Hopefully the Twins find a way to put it all together and take the division.
  6. Dman
    I really like Pierson Ohl so was happy to see him get pitcher of the day. He seems to be getting more consistent after his rough start. Haven't been able to see him pitch yet but would like to. I watched a bit of the Wichita game with Enlow pitching. He looked like he was giving up hard contact and having trouble missing bats. Granted he is still working on getting back on track from TJ but his stuff didn't look as good as I had hoped. He definitely has worked on his lower half as his legs are thick now. Hopefully he just gets stronger through the year and gets better movement for some swing and miss. The other team totally pitched around Wallner except for the first at bat which I missed. They even gave him an intentional walk with two men on at one point in the game. Maybe move him up to AAA where at least they pitch to him? Steer looks good. He looks like another viable option at the big league level.
  7. Dman
    If Larnach, Jeffers and Winder work out that will one heck of a draft. I still like Sands but I also still think his future is in the bullpen. I also think Schulfer has a chance yet to be a pen arm. He has been shaky at time in AAA but he still has a chance. Helman has really turned a corner and while is probably too old to be a prospect he still has the potential to make an MLB club IMO. Funderburk has pitched well the last two years. He doesn't appear to have dominant stuff but I bet he too could be a good pen arm by letting the fastball play up. I keep waiting and watching for LaRon Smith and he is off to a good start at low A. Will be interesting to see if his bat stay good as I guess I don't understand why he wasn't at Low A last year. 2018 has the potential to be a really good draft but the players have to perform well and continue to play at the MLB level before we can say for sure.
  8. Dman
    Miranda is getting a lot of Lefty Righty matchups which is helping him. I wouldn't mind seeing him get more DH time and give Urshela a rest now and then certainly wouldn't hurt as Rocco seems to rest everyone else. I think it would be nice to see him out there more since he seems to be handling himself well at the plate. The tough part about being a rookie is you need experience to become a veteran. Maybe the Twins are just trying to protect him by only finding favorable matchups to play him in. He is performing well so I can see why the Twins don't seem to be too worried about his role right now, but to the OP's point why not just completely rest your catchers instead of DH them when you have a likely better bat that needs playing time. If a moment comes up that you think is too big for him or you don't like a certain matchup then pinch hit for him. Until his bat cools down I would put him out there more.
  9. Dman
    OK so I predicted a sweep for Cleveland and there were plenty of times in this game where it could have happened but baseball is so weird and unpredictable that of course with a one run lead the bullpen hung on when they couldn't hold three run leads in the last two games. Bases loaded no outs with Smith struggling I thought for certain the game was lost there. No way he could wriggle out of that without some damage and yet he did. When Duran hit the batter in the 8th I thought he might unravel but he got the job done. Get to the 9th Duran takes down homer man Franmil and I am thinking maybe game over and then I see Thielbar come in and I smile and say to myself they are going to give this one away. Sure enough a double to start things off and I was certain this game at least goes extra's unless he gives up a home run and the next thing you know the Twins come away with the win. Even all my negativity could not sink the Twins today and yet the other two games I felt like they would win and they collapsed. I think the baseball gods just like to toy with my emotions and make me look bad. Nice win for the Twins. Glad they got the W for Smeltzer. Where would this team be without him? If you would have told me Smeltzer would be one of our best starters this year I would have rolled my eyes and laughed at you and yet here we are with the baseball gods sticking it to me again. At least this time in a good way.
  10. Dman
    I believe I said it last week but I am getting good vibes on Neto. He looks like he can stick at short. Had only a 7% K rate this year so he can make contact which is a good thing. He is a little light on the power stroke but the Twins have been pretty good at helping guys get there. I think he is a solid up the middle player that could be a plus defender and plus bat. If the top 7 fall like the Mocks think they will then Neto is my choice. If any of the other top 7 guys fall to 8 might have to rethink things but Neto is growing on me at pick 8. Cross probably is an OK pick as well but there were questions about strike zone recognition and with all the outfielders in play right now for Minnesota it isn't an exciting pick IMO. A player with up the middle potential seems like a better use of pick 8 to me all things being equal. I don't like Jung either and his bat has fallen off as well. I could be convinced on Berry since he is a switch hitter but sitting at 8 do you really want to take a DH? I was thinking Young with an under-slot deal at 8 but if Neto is there and with his ability to make contact he feels like a safer pick to me. I could end up being wrong but I think Young is going to fall down the board. Will have to wait and see. Anyway that is my take.
  11. Dman
    IMO the Twins were always going to get reeled in at some point. I thought it was going to be Chicago that caught them but this Cleveland team looks very Piranha like. The Twins had that big winning streak early and were gifted some games by Chicago and Detroit. The rest has been pretty mediocre. They just are not very consistent and the pen has been a thorn in their side since the first game of the season. Starting pitching has been duct tape patch work. The offense can shine one game and get easily shut out the next. The team is kind of a house of horrors in some regards. To me it looks like Cleveland finally found the offense they have been missing for the last 3 years. Instead of losing close games due to lack of offense they are winning close games. They have a better starting staff and a deeper bullpen honestly barring injury they look like the better team to me. I still think the Twins are a good team but my dream that they somehow might steal the division is pretty much gone at this point. After they get swept today there should be no looking back for Cleveland unless the injury bug bites them.
  12. Dman
    I don't think we will know the answer to that until after the season. If they both have sustained success I could see them maybe make a move with Kepler.
  13. Dman
    I tend to agree. Scouts are still looking for specific traits in players that they think they can build on. They are looking for players with untapped potential. You could argue that it is those players in those rounds where the scouts earn their money. Everyone knows who the top 100 players are even the fans. We don't know which guys are going to work out but for the most part the top 200 players are set except for the order they will be picked. Not sure it takes much scouting acumen to determine those players. Players that look like sure things in the top 100 are not all going to work out. We see it every year no matter how good the organization. Some consensus top 10 picks are not going to work out and that is pretty much the entire industry scouting players that come up with these rankings. So scouting and top 100 lists are never perfect predictors of success at the MLB level even when the entire industry agrees. I agree and it is pretty much proven that the further out you get the less likely a player makes it but any players that do make it from those rounds is essentially found money and the team wasn't just throwing darts at the board on who they decided to pick. They picked guys with specific tools and skillsets they felt they might be able to develop. Sure most of them are not going to work but I still think you have to give credit to the organization for recognizing talent that was more deeply hidden and or had the ability to be developed. Finding players that can play at the MLB level not even All-Star caliber players but even just a dominant relief arm has significant value to the organization so those lower picks matter IMO.
  14. Dman
    Nice to see Henriquez not implode and give up a crooked number in the early innings. Still he did give up 2 Home Runs and a homer prone pitcher is never a good thing. They don't make it to the Majors so he has work to do. Was happy to see SGL bounce back after a tough AA debut. Gave up a bit too much contact but I think he has the stuff to make it. This is an important stretch for him in a hitters league. For a 13th round pick Festa has been impressive. If he keeps this up I have to believe he gets some looks at the AA level yet this year. Glad to see Anthony Escobar continuing to K guys after coming back from TJ surgery. I wonder if he is completely a pen arm moving forward or if they will give him another shot in the rotation. Still if he can regain his dominant form he cold be a good future arm.
  15. Dman
    Yeah his K rate has always been brutal and it generally doesn't translate to MLB that well unless the walk rate is good as well. The Rooker comparison is a scary one. Right now Rooker is tearing up AAA with 385 OBP and .992 OPS. That is a slightly higher OPS than Wallner has at AA. Even with those number the Padres haven't called Rooker up but that may have more to do with defense than his bat. He is not a good left fielder and with Hosmer at 1st and I assume DH spoken for there might be no place to safely play him. Also with his K rate still at 30% and his known difficulty with breaking balls maybe they don't see his bat as ready either. So yeah I agree Wallner has some things to prove yet. Mainly that he can hit breaking pitches because Rooker didn't seem to be able to and Kirilloff and Larnach struggled with that transition as well. It will be interesting to see if he can make the jump. He has the arm for right but can play left as well. Not a ton of speed but I think better than Rooker. With his walks rising hopefully he can move forward with a more balanced approach and get better pitches to hit or at least on base with a walk. Wallner started the first month of the year with 45% K rate so he has gotten better but I agree that it would be nice to see that number around 25% or so with walks in the 10 to 15% range as that would give him a better chance once he moves up.
  16. Dman
    I think you need to take into consideration that he is only 19 at least 2 years younger than most players in that league. I f you look at last year and what Cavaco and Urbina did he seems far more advanced than both players. In fact he is hitting better than Cavaco right now and Cavaco is 21. So if you factor that in I think his bat looks good already. He could end up a utility player but I think a lot would have to go wrong for that to happen given his balanced approach at the plate and the fact he will be most likely be young for all levels as he moves up.
  17. Dman
    That is some good analysis and I feel pretty much the same way. The Dodgers will get their pick and I think with that cheating scandal with Houston I think they hang onto Turner and spurn Correa. I guess I am not sure I understand the Red Sox reluctance on Bogaerts? Are they no longer willing to box themselves into 10 year deals? Are they thinking like you that there really isn't a market for 10 year SS deals or do they want to make a play for Turner or Correa. I just don't see Story being a long term answer there but maybe he is good enough and doesn't break the bank for them. Given the money the Phils handed out this year and their desperate need for more pitching I can't see them being able to afford any of the top three shortstops even if they want to. Unless of coarse they can work out some trades. The Cub's have the money but would likely be wasting some prime years on whoever they get because they aren't ready to compete anytime soon IMO. Angels seem out to. If other teams don't want to do those 10 years deals I think the Twins could compete with a seven year deal with multiple opt outs. I think for the right player the Twins could make a play for that length of contract.
  18. Dman
    I think given where things are today those are pretty objectively fair grades. I still think Lewis ends up an A and Enlow will need more time but he should get back to B status and certainly C by the mid point next year. I think Jeffers and Canterino can end up B's as well. I think the grades reflect where they stand right now but I think there is solid potential for the final grade to be better than this. I see the rational for Steer being an A but that seems a bit high to me. I think of an A as All Star or very near All Star caliber player but this is your criteria and that is fine. What you can see is that there have been a fair number of complete misses at the top of the draft. I think your identifying the power hitting guys (Rooker, Sabato), they selected didn't work out well and Wallner was on his way to being the 3rd one not to work out but has OPS'd his way out of it for now. Still has to make the big leagues though so far from a sure B IMO. I really appreciate the work you put in and those are the only quibbles I have and they are minor.
  19. Dman
    Yeah I think Turner and Bogaerts will be looking for those types of AAV's and years as well. All three seem clumped together offensively but only Correa with the platinum glove. While I would like to think keeping the AAV around 35M per year on a 7 year deal with an opt out after year's three and 5 could get it done I am likely in dream land. He really only gets one shot at this so likely going to make a top revenue team pay big and go 10 years adding another 100M to the deal. I am sure he likes it in Minnesota but unless he has a Byron Buxton attitude he likely isn't going to take less to stay here and the Twins aren't going to box themselves into a ten year deal. Final analysis I just don't see Minnesota getting it done at those dollars and years. Also looking into the future it limits any homegrown stars they can keep as well. Also if we do have good players coming up then Arb salaries could make things tough as well. Just not sure Mr Pohlad is going to keep upper limit payrolls long term either. This is gamble that seems to big for this team.
  20. Dman
    Let me just say given the Matt Wallner I have seen the last three years I would have never guessed he would ever walk more than strike out for the week. If he keeps his approach balanced he could be a monster bat. Still needs to prove he can take those walks pitchers give power hitters. If he does look out because he swings a mean bat. 13 Home runs on the year already with an outside chance for 30 on the year but fairly likely at least 25. I was down on him for a long time but he is finally changing my mind. With Steer gone and Isola out it seems like Wichita's offense just isn't as productive. Jullien is trying to be Steer 2.0 and has been close to as productive but not quite elite level yet. Isola was a tough out as was Helman so AA could use some reinforcements on the bats. Pitching hasn't been quite as good either so hopefully they can turn things around with what they have. I don't remember much about Rubel Cespedes but he caught my eye right away in the box scores. I kind of thought his numbers would go down but he just keeps getting hits game after game. He could stand to take more walks but with an OPS of 950 maybe just let him use the CES method of aggressive swings that keep your OPS high regardless. Should be a fun bat to follow. Hoping Baez can keep his bat hot as well we can always use more centerfield talent.
  21. Dman
    I had my doubts as well. With pretty much average tools across the board it felt like a reach for a Sup 1 round pick. For his first year I am very impressed with his balanced approach at the plate and defense. Defense was my greatest concern for Miller sticking at short with an arm graded 55 and speed 50 he didn't have much room for error to be moved off the position. Still in a very SSS he looked like a big leaguer this spring and like the OP said errors are not the entire story when it comes to defense but IMO they do tend to predict who can stay at a position long term. He looks like he can stay there right now. Would like to see a bit more contact and harder contact but if he continues to play as he has been, he has to see his first year as a success and worthy of moving up to High A next year.
  22. Dman
    The one player that they might move at the Deadline would be Sano. Given the offensive options at their disposal they likely don't have room for him next year and what value does he bring if he is only going to play for the team a couple of months and be a marginal difference maker at the plate and detriment in the field. I think there is good chance they move on without him this year. I don't think the Twins are going to mess with team chemistry at the deadline so I don't see any of the others being traded. While possible it seems very unlikely the Twins would be out of the running for at least a wild card spot so why not keep a guy like Urshela as good veteran depth. There is no one better defensively in right field than Kepler and his bat has been OK this year. If they trade Correa it better be a monster deal as that would really hurt this teams chances. If the Twins add odds are it will be relievers and they have some prospect capital that they can use and I would guess they will. In the offseason yes I could see Urshela, Kepler and Correa all gone but unlikely at the deadline IMO.
  23. Dman
    Don't want to jinx him but just want to point out that so far in June Wander Javier has an .890 OPS. His K rate is under 30% and his walk rate could be better but not horrible. In June he is slugging .491 with a 400 OBP. almost three weeks of very good offense and he has come up big with men on base as well. Certainly not the black hole bat he has been. Still need to see more but maybe just maybe he is a bit of a late bloomer? Maybe he has figured things out more at the plate? His full season numbers still are not good but a strong finish could give us hope that he is a viable option in the system.
  24. Dman
    Congrats to the Kernals on Clinching a playoff berth! Wisconsin was right behind them until the last couple of weeks when they started to stumble. CES's bat is back as he has an 1.060 OPS in June and he had a 3 for 5 night last night. Povich with another dominant start and you have to believe he gets moved up around the all star break if not sooner. I think some of that High A fire power is going to moving up to AA especially on the pitching side. Not sure what is going on with Miller as he has been slumping pretty badly for a while now. Hopefully he finds that stroke and get things going again. Rosario looks like he might have figured some things out as is on fire in June with a .962 OPS in a league that is tough on hitters. He has brought his season OPS up to .740 so the three 19 years old's (Rodriguez, Miller, Rosario) have all done well at times this year and look like they will candidates to move up next year. It has been a good year to watch MiLB baseball in the Twins system with two teams clinching the playoffs and Wichita still in the hunt for a spot. St Paul might not be playoff bound but they had a lot guys move up the MLB level though as well. Hoping for good draft to keep the good times rolling.
  25. Dman
    I guess I am going to have to rescind my Bundy is an automatic loss comment. He looked very efficient out there. To my eye though he still gave up a lot of solid contact it was just that those balls either went foul or were hit at guys in the field this time around. Still I think that was the longest start for a Twins pitcher this season so have to give him props for a really excellent performance. I guess the next question is can sustain this type of performance or anything close to it for the rest of the season? I like how fearless he is in the zone but I haven't been a fan of his results the last month and a half. To be honest I was expecting another start like Smelter had the night before but was pleasantly surprised with what Bundy was able to do especially going 8 innings. That really helps the pen. The bats were really good but they still are a Jekyl and Hyde group. You just never know what you are going to get night to night. Arraez 2 for 2 with a walk, impressive. Nice to see Jeffers make hard contact after getting fooled his last time up. Hopefully the Twins find a way to take the series and go into the Cleveland series with some momentum.
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