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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    For the Twins to have any chance down the stretch this was pretty much an absolute need. Steer was slightly blocked and CES has not shown much on defensive side of the ball. Hajjar has one elite pitch and the rest is to be determined.so really hard to say what was given up there just yet. All three prospects have really good potential to be good to very good MLB players. I am a prospect lover and hate losing them but giving up on the division in a year where the Twins have positioned themselves into 1st place doesn't make sense either. They needed to do something and Mahle was in the top tier of pitchers to get at the deadline and at least we didn't have to pay the price Seattle did. I followed Steer as he moved up each level and his balanced approach at the plate along with his power and good defense will be missed. I think he will be a very solid MLB player. With Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, and Miranda already in the way and with Jullien, Severino and his likely replacement the newly drafted Lee behind him, it was OK to let him go for something we needed. I hated the CES pick in the draft and thought it was a mistake pick. After watching him, I have absolutely loved what this guy brings to the plate. Yes he still needs some work on the K rate but he barrels a lot of balls and has never had an OPS lower than 900 in the system. He moved up two levels this year and technically could be moved up a third as he has had no trouble adjusting to AA. I think he is a star in the making at DH or 1st base. A Nelson Cruz type bat that will be good for a long time. I think it is tough to lose a bat like that for a year and a half of Mahle but the Twins needed to do something and credit the Reds for finding a top 100 bat before the pundits see it. In the end I think the Twins will regret losing him but for the right here, right now to get what they needed it had to be done. Hajjar hasn't pitched much this year and has been injured twice already. That change is elite and if he can stay healthy I believe he is a starter but with arm troubles this early in there seems like a fair bit a of reliever risk although with that change he could be an elite lefty reliever. I always hate losing prospects but there are others who can cover for losing some of the picks. We needed another starter for this year and next year. Let's hope a pitching pipeline develops in our lifetime and we don't have to make trades like this.
  2. Dman
    This is what you get forced to do when you don't make getting higher octane arms a priority and just role with what you have in the offseason. I hate losing Povich who had a decent chance to be a good lefty starter and most certainly a solid bullpen arm. Cano while not perfect could end being a very productive reliever for the O's and if they can make Cano work he could be a good get in and of himself. If not then they still have Povich. The last time a team dipped into our FSL pool I believe the Yankee's managed to get Luis Gil a hard throwing youngster with upside so those lottery tickets could turn into something as well. You just never know. That being said Cano wasn't going to help the Twins in the right here, right now and in the end might have been lost for nothing. So if he was something that moved the needle on this trade then at least that is something. The two lottery tickets are a looong ways a way and the odds they make it slim. If that is what it took then you just do it. It hurts to lose Povich but this team absolutely, positively needed some help on the back end and this guy looks like a good bet to help put the Twins over the hump right now. Ultimately I like this trade for the Twins. They get an asset they desperately need for this season and the next two. He is a hard thrower to compliment Duran and if Alcala ever returns then the Twins have three hard throwers to put out there a long with Jax and maybe Canterino next year as well. This is a solid move to help the pen long term and also give this team a chance at the division this year. Baring injury I am certain the O's will win this trade long term but when you make trades for the present you lose the future that is just the way this works. Kind of nice to be on this end of it for a change though.
  3. Dman
    This addition should help as he keeps the ball in yard. Not a great K rate but not bad either. Fullmer should be someone who is dependable as a rental to help shore up the pen. I have been a big Sawyer Gipson-Long backer and he has slowly moved up levels but given he was going to be Rule V eligible and not likely added to the 40 man with a decent chance to get picked this is a good way to use an asset. Twins must be banking on rebounds from SWR, Balazovich, Henriquez, Enlow and Canterino for next year as thing are thinned out for impact pitching with Petty, Hajjar and Povich being traded this year. I guess they are banking on Prielipp moving fast and replacing one of the two lefties lost and let's hope they found diamonds in the rough down the line to fill the gaps at various levels from the 2022 draft. Given all the controllable starters they have for next year in Gray, Maeda, Ryan and Mahle with Paddack back later in the year they should be in a good place for starting pitching for at least one more year. Let's hope that pipeline starts pumping out young arms sooner rather later.
  4. Dman
    Like all trades it is a bittersweet result. I was fine giving up Steer he was going to need to be added to the 40 man and there wasn't a ton of room to play him and there are guys coming up behind him. Hajjar is a nice arm but a ways a way and I think there is reliever risk there. Always hate losing good lefties of which the Twins now have virtually none left. The gut punch though is Strand. He doesn't need to be added for a while and he has those Miranda bat to ball skills that likely will make him an elite hitter. He could be the Reds next Joey Votto IMO. I really think he might be that good. If they hadn't included him I would right as rain with this trade but IMO they got hijacked on this one. I sure hope Mahle is as good as advertised because Cinci got a haul there. Can't say the Twins are not in it to win it with two very good pitchers added to the roster. I sure hope these moves pay off short and longer term. Man that must have been one heck of a draft in 2021 as other teams picked 4 of the 5 players off of it already.
  5. Dman
    2.5 years. If you can count what is left of the season .5 years.
  6. Dman
    Baltimore must see Povich as an elite starter to make this move. Tough to lose a good lefty but getting an All Star closer is something this Twins team desperately needs and is a brilliant move. Would never have guessed the Twins would get this level of quality reliever. This is a really good win now move. If he can manage a sub 2 ERA in the East He should be a big step up from most of the guys we have.
  7. Dman
    I guess I don't love the relievers being thrown in with the starters. They really are not comparable IMO. I will say for all his warts I do kind of like Bundy. What I like the most is the way he attacks hitters. He just seems to go right at guys and I like that. When he has a bad game though it generally is a really bad game. I can't say I love his stuff but he gets the job done more often than not despite a horrible ERA. I too like Cotton but until this month far too often he just can't seem to find the zone. If he can stay more consistent he could be an answer so hopefully he stays in a good groove through the end of the season.
  8. Dman
    After his rookie year when he hit so well I thought the Twins better hurry up and build a team around this guy because they won't be able to keep a super star for long. After that from injuring himself stepping on a baseball to being a K king it has been a looong way down from that rookie year. The Twins are generally a thoughtful group so hard to say what they ultimately decide on Sano for this year but there is no room for him next year so a DFA makes sense. I guess it just depends on how the Twins FO see's things.
  9. Dman
    While some complain all the time about basically every move and some of the same things over and over I think we need to remember this is a place for Twins fans to express their feelings. People are expressing what they feel within the boundaries of the sites rules and while I get frustrated with some posters and some comments there are plenty of well thought out informative comments as well. If the board was just the Twins are great and nothing else there wouldn't really be a need for a site like this. Honestly there likely wouldn't be any sports fans then because essentially outcomes don't matter so who cares. Being a fan is about being emotional about your team. You want "your team" to win and baseball is full of ups and downs and our emotions swing with each win and lose. Each strike out or game winning HR. That is what is most often expressed here. Yes keep it clean and try to stay somewhat even keeled but emotions don't just run one way. There is going to be some negativity and diverse opinions about ones favorite team. Sure the best course of action is to stay positive but I guess I don't see a problem when posters have a different opinion or way of looking at things than I do even if it is negative. That is the way they feel I respect it and move on to the next comment.
  10. Dman
    Maybe I am just a vanilla Minnesotan at heart but I think I like Morneau the best as well. Great insight on the hitter side. Understands what the players are trying to do to win. I just like his approach the best but can understand where others might not care for him as much. Still they seem to mix it up and I like Smally and several others as well but in the end I still think I like Morneau the best.
  11. Dman
    I guess the thing I don't understand is Duffy walking the number 8 guy after having him at 2-2. The number 8 guy is the guy you challenge because you don't want to face the top of the order with hitters that do the most damage. I turned it off right after the walk I was so frustrated. I never even saw that he hit the next batter to give both the 8 and 9 hitters free passes he literally deserved to get nailed for the HR after not making the two worst batters on the team earn their way on. I mean I will give him credit as he settled down to get the next two batters but he is supposed to be a pro and has been at this level for years. For Duffy to not be ready for the 8 and 9 hole batters seems like a sign the guy just doesn't have it anymore. You're a pro you need to be ready right from the start. I am sorry but he is not a reliever I would want on my team.
  12. Dman
    Yeah I saw the .556 BABIP as well and I know it is not sustainable but the point remains even if it drops some. He is seeing the ball well and hitting the ball well. That is one of the most valuable skills in MLB. You can't really have .400 BA and have a normalized BABIP of .300. Players with higher batting averages are naturally going to have higher BABIPs. Yet there is some skill in getting good contact and hitting it where they ain't. Not .556 worth but even if that drops a ways he would still be a .300 hitter and he has some pop as well. I get that he is apparently not a great defender but I think he could be serviceable at second and if his bat really is this good right now then DH wouldn't be a bad option for him either. Not saying he would be worth a lot in trade but I think he could add value to a package for the right team.
  13. Dman
    Every system has good to great prospects and Jullien might not be quite as shiny as some so I get what you are saying but I think if you are willing to look at MiLB stats from all leagues what CES is doing is pretty rarified air. I think he is the 2nd youngest player to have that high of an OPS in MILB ball high A and above. Most of the guys above him are older and some much older. This also is just his first full year of pro ball. When you start looking at the numbers I don't think you realize just how good he is. Wallner is older but his Numbers are elite for MiLB ball as well. Granted he is dropping like a stone at AAA right now but he was at the top with his OPS in AA. Interestingly while a smaller sample size, Chris Williams is right up there as well. Guys with .900 or above OPS's don't really grow on tree's. I think what CES is doing is fairly unprecedented for a first year pro player especially one drafted in the 4th round.
  14. Dman
    I am pretty excited about this kid and am happy he signed. If he can get the hit tool to average or better he will make it. He is just too tooled up not to. Rehab on the arm has to be tough but he will get the best of care now that he is with the Twins. I guess the word is out that the Twins are near the top for developing talent and treating their players really well. While I am biased personally I think he made a good choice. The Twins really do everything they can to help players succeed but in the end the player does have to perform. I have a good feeling Omari Daniel will preform.
  15. Dman
    Generally I would agree with you but 32 isn't "that" old and IIRC the issue with Beckham was the bat so if that is fixed then he should be a good MLB player. Beckham was hurt early in the year so only 136 PA compared to needing around 300 to be a qualified hitter at AAA but for reference below is a snip of all AAA hitters and notice that Kirilloff had about the same number of at bats and we were screaming for him to be added back to the MLB club. Since posting those number Kirilloff has been doing just fine at the MLB level. I think the same is likely for Beckham as well. Granted 136 PA is still a relatively small sample size but hitting 400 for that long isn't easy either. Kirilloff couldn't do it so I think it is an accomplishment that needs to be acknowledged at this point and yes I think that means he deserves a shot at the MLB level.
  16. Dman
    Great write up today! Thanks! Beckham should not be in MiLB anymore. He has been hitting .400 for a while now and I think his OPS has been over 1.000 for a quite a while as well. If the Twins are not going to use him then they should at least do him the courtesy of trading him. He could be the perfect stash for a playoff team that might need utility help right now or down the line. He wouldn't even need to be added to a teams 40 man right away so would be flexible insurance. Palacios has been looking good with the bat the last few months. Just a tad bit more power like he showed last night and he could be a legit starting shortstop. I appreciate the OP mentioning Henriquez has been doing better lately. I have just gotten used to lot's of walks and runs given up that I just assume that is who he is now. Nice to see him give up no runs through 4 innings last night. I hope the Twins don't trade CES at the deadline. He looks like an All Star with the bat. Kind of Cruz like being able to hit balls out of the park. They were scared of him enough last night to practically intentionally walk him. He walked on 4 pitches with two men on. Other teams don't want to pitch to him in tight situations. I mentioned a while ago Severino had a good bat but needed to be better. He must read Twins Daily as the last few weeks he has really turned it up a notch. If he keeps this up he might need to be protected from Rule V. Jullian one of my favorite hitters because he has a special eye at the plate just keeps producing as well. Some really good bats going right now. Hope guys keep doing well. Should be another fun night tonight.
  17. Dman
    While I don't completely disagree, still unless the relationship with Buxton gets extremely damaged his statements all indicate a big part of his decision to stay in Minnesota is stability not only for him but his family. You can read the rest of the article here. Anything can happen but given how he made the decision with family in mind I would say the odds are extremely low. I think quote below is key to his thinking about his contract and Minnesota. ""My family took a big part of this," Buxton said. "They're comfortable here. The [comfort] here is a big key for what we want to do, and the stability, just knowing that we don't have to go anywhere, that we can put our boys through school and not really have to worry about it too much, is the biggest key."
  18. Dman
    Buxton can be on the list but in reality with a no trade clause he technically doesn't have any trade value because he cannot be traded. He only signed that lower AAV incentive laden deal so that he could have the security to keep his family in Minnesota. So not really a tradable option IMO.
  19. Dman
    First thank you Jeremy for all the work you put into the draft with articles, video's and comments!! It was very insightful and I for one really enjoy the kind of info and content you bring to Twins Daily. So thank you! I am thankful the Twins got the two high schoolers signed. They both have really good tools and project well especially with their arms and defense. Hopefully their hit tools will end up plus but we will have to wait and see. They both appear athletically gifted so just need to hit the ball to succeed. Have to say I was surprised Prielipp made it to the second round and that he ultimately did not quite get first round money. That leads me to question if other teams see him more as a reliever than starter? I know Fangraphs did so it will be interesting to see how things ultimately turn out. Still, likely elite reliever in the second round would not be a bad get either. As usual I really don't understand draft rankings when it comes to pitchers past the second round. Just given the comments and where Morris was ranked I didn't see him commanding the $500,000 bonus he got. I thought it would be in the 3 to 4 hundred range tops. I don't have the info the Twins do though so obviously they feel like he was the best pitcher available at pick number 4. Happy to see both catchers getting the max they could get in the 11th and 12th rounds as I like both and I think they deserved even more but at least they gave the slotted value there. Is Garrett McMillan worth going over slot for? He wasn't ranked in the the top 300 that I could see. I guess I don't see the attraction there but maybe someone can fill me in? Dickerson is interesting and the Twins didn't get much in the draft for outfield prospects but with the swing and miss he seems like a long shot to me. Still if they had to put that money on just one player I would go with Dickerson. I know I complained about all the shortstop\utility player picks but I really like what they did in this draft. They got a couple of high schoolers with good projection (i.e. not slow footed position less players). They got arguably the best bat in the draft. They grabbed an elite arm in the second and under rated player with their supp pick. I am interested to see how how the smaller school Ben Ross does at the pro level and if his bat plays the Twins might have a legit shortstop there. I think Morris and Lewis are interesting arms and I really liked both catchers they drafted after the first ten picks. To recap they got high upside early in the draft and still found talented bats late in the draft along with two high school shortstops. I think they did pretty well this year.
  20. Dman
    If you made me choose I would say keep Kirilloff as I feel like he is close to the same hitter with more defensive upside. Still I agree with Danchat. They both look like successful MLB hitters with long years of control Those are generally not tradable assets. I would just keep both. If looking to move players at this deadline I would move Steer, Jullien or Martin as hitters, maybe Wallner but outfield depth is light in the near term in this system so he might be needed especially if Kepler has any kind of long term injury.
  21. Dman
    Good shout out on Sisk there. A lefty who has looked pretty good all year and now at AAA. He might even get a callup yet before this year is done especially with Thielbar on the shelf.
  22. Dman
    The Twins were just a few Bullpen meltdowns from being up by 6 games or more at the break so I think if they can strengthen the pen they can compete down the stretch. The White Sox have the easiest schedule and if their starting pitching holds they have enough offense to get it done. I guess I don't have a ton of confidence they will though. Cleveland is plucky they have the pitching and they actually have offense this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled it out in the end but they have the toughest schedule left so probably going to be tough for them as well. Its a coin flip for me but should be fun down the stretch.
  23. Dman
    If the Twins were in KC or Tigers territory I am sure they would consider trading Correa but given things have worked out like they hoped they would when they signed him they have to be happy they got him if only for one year. He is a great club house fit. He is putting up his normal numbers. The Twins are in 1st place and have been for last few months. He filled a massive Shortstop hole for this season and gave us a chance to win the division. The FO made the right decision to sign him they won't trade him now.
  24. Dman
    Very interested in both of the catching prospects. I thought the Twins got good value snagging them in the 11th and 12th rounds. Baez seems to have a solid approach will interesting to see how he does his first full year.
  25. Dman
    Sure if you are just talking about the top 6 guys they can make room if they want to. Move Garlick for Wallner, Urshela for Steer, Sano for Jullien, Duffy for SWR, Smith for Canterino, Strotman for Varland. There done. However as noted above the young pitchers on the 40 man that are dead weight right now based on performance are Sands, Balazovich, Henriquez, Enlow and I doubt SWR, Canterino and Varland are ready to help starting the year next year so that would be 7 pitchers on the 40 man who likely are dead weight to start the year leaving little room for error as they would be down to a 33 man and with Steer, Jullien and Wallner likely not making the 26 man then down to a 30 man roster to work pitchers in and out. If you want a third catcher then make that 29. If you want to add any of the next tier of Isola, Legumina, Mooney, Headrick, Lawyerson, Sawyer Gipson Long, Schulffer or Palacios well then things get even more complicated. Personally I think there is a legit roster crunch unless more of these players are ready to play at the MLB level. Also there literally is no way to protect all 15 potential Rule V eligible players for next year. They might as well trade some of these guys if they can find the right value. There will be more guys to add next year as well although with 2020 being such a small draft and likely not needing to protect Sabato or Soularie the Twins will likely get a reprieve from adding more bodies to the 40 man.
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