Dman

Didn't see that coming but I guess when your slugging is 500 to 600 every year the shift doesn't seem to be as large a problem. Great analysis though. Like I said I never picked up on it. How great would that be if Buck upped his average a little.

I am going to go with Ben Ross. He had hit .400 pretty much everywhere he went (granted he didn't play D1 Ball) and he had a solid pro debut. I think he could be 1st round special but will have to wait and see, For someone who has been in the system at least one year I am going to go with Miller. He has the eye at the plate. He has great defense. He just needs to get more solid contact. I think he does that this year and vaults his way into the top 10 Twins prospect list. My longshot pick would be Daulton Shuffield. They threw him to the sharks at AAA last year and he hit the ball as well a lot of more seasoned guys there. Probably not room for him to start the season there but he could break out no matter where they put him. He looks like a legit bat to me even if he is an older first time prospect. This really is a crazy ask though as this system has lot's guys that could be poised for big breakouts. In Short season ball you have Nova, Chourio, Cruz, Acuna, Pena, Daniel and Ortiz not even counting Mercedes and Rodriguez who have had mini breakouts. At A ball Rosario, Olivar, Miller, Ross, Cossetti, Biaz, Shobel and Pena. On the pitching side Prielipp, Mcleod, Morris and Lewis. The list could go on and on and I didn't even include High A to AAA. There really are a lot of player with good potential to break out all over the system but baseball is hard. Injuries and weaknesses that slow players development (or kill it) can be hard to overcome. Will be fun to watch and see who has an Emmanual Rodriguez type of year. As you can tell I am bullish on a ton of players this year.

Loving the updates! Lot's of good questions being asked and it is cool to get players insight into things. Really appreciate the inside scoop. Thanks!

Looking back at his stats he never was a strike out pitcher he was more of a pitch to contact pitcher with batters driving it into the ground. The only problem he had IMO was he had no put away pitch. Guys would foul lots of stuff off and he could end up with high pitch counts and long innings. If he can't use the sinker anymore I have no idea who he is as a pitcher. Many players have reinvented themselves to great success in this game and Randy is a worker so I wouldn't count him out. If the finger holds up I like his chances in the pen. With his finger issue can't see him putting extra strain on it starting. As far as the money goes when he came in that spring he looked like he had found his K pitch and might be a dominant pitcher. The contract was a small risk for potential great gain for the Twins. Randy had beaten the odds all the way to MLB it didn't seem prudent to bet against him. Injuries happen to lots of players and this contract risked peanuts compared to most. I didn't think it was terrible at the time in fact I thought Dobnak might be selling himself short. So far it has worked out better for Randy than the Twins but that happens all the time in baseball especially with pitchers (just ask the Dodgers). I bet against Randy pretty much all the way up the ladder and ridiculed the Twins for using him so much in A ball and then he took off. One thing I learned was never bet against Randy Dobnak. This time I am betting on the comeback.

Totally agree. 10 or one third of the Twins top 30 prospects should be in St Paul if you include Martin there. Granted Lewis won't be there to start and won't be there for long but he likely would be listed there. Outside of Lewis, Martin, Wallner, Julien and Hellman there would still be Celestino, Williams and Prato who are pretty good at the plate and in the field as well. AAA is loaded with players that could be called up at anytime. Almost an MLB team of their own.

I really like that the Twins were able to grab Lee with their 8th round pick. His defense should be plus at 3rd and possibly 2nd. So I don't see defense as an Issue for Lee. He is a Switch hitter with a good eye at the plate and I was very suprised he made it all the way to AA in his shortened first year as a pro. His numbers are all SSS but at High A where he took most of his plate attempts he walked as much as he K'd with an .848 OPS. He looks ready to go to me. AA is a hitters league so I don't see him slowing down there. Maybe AAA will trip him up some but if he stays healthy there seems to be a decent chance he gets a late season callup with the Twins this year. He should factor into 2024 pretty heavily if he maintains his current offensive production. Twins have some good bats with possible plus defense in their top three this year. Hoping they all turn into All Star type players.

They will use them but it might be picking up another player some other team drops. Or they might like what one of the non roster invites looks like and add them at the end of spring training. Maybe Dobnak looks good enough to add. Maybe they just add Garlick or Coulombe back on. Hard to say what the FO might want to do but those spots won't be open when the regular season starts. They will have to decide what gives them the biggest bang for the buck and given they are at an all time high payroll I am betting those spots end up being low cost options.

Not sure how the Twins want to spend the two roster spots they will have available once they can put guys on injured reserve. They could opt for a right handed bat for 1st base or could just add Garlick back onto the 40 man. They could add Hand or they could rely more heavily on Coulumbe and the other young arms they have. They could save a spot for the Sire of Fort Meyers. Hard to say what they want to do, but we should find out fairly soon.

Yeah I didn't know a thing about him until he showed up in Gleeman's top prospects list. He sure looks like he has a solid approach. Good walk rate, Good K rate, Good slugging, excellent average. The bat looks really good but full season A ball will be a good test for him. Lot's of young players struggle with the better pitching there. If this kid can stay at catcher and actually throw guys out at a decent clip he could really help the Twins system out as they are struggling in the catcher department. I have my eyes on this kid as well and hoping for big things from him this year. Still he is only 21 and Catchers generally take a long time so he has time. If more of these international signings can work out it could really lift the system up.

I still Believe Royce Lewis is an All Star caliber player. I know Correa has Short held down for now but Royce could be valuable in a variety of spots. I know he got hurt in the outfield and he has said before that he prefers to stay in the infield but he sure would be a nice right handed bat for center or right field. Still even if he ends up at third I think he could have a difference making bat along with plus defense. So far all it has been for me is hopes and dreams. Hopefully he stays healthy from here on out and helps take this team to the next level.

I am hoping he is the real deal this year. Love that HR suppression. Still he gave up way to many hits and seemed like he put men on base way too often making his outings far from stress free. Frankly I am surprised he fared as well as he did with his 1.51 WHIP. If the Twins can help him miss more bats he could be a real find. I love the velocity as it helps us build a power pen, but at this point he still seems like a wild card to me. Hoping for the best though and will be watching how he does this spring.

You need to look beyond batting average to understand his impact last year. Batting average is great but not making outs is the name of the game. You only get three each inning so walks are important too. With Rodriguez's BA and Walks factored in he was on base 50% of the time. Every other time he came up he found his way on base so his batting average was essentially .500. No else in his league was close to that number. He played less than half the year so if you extrapolate out the 9 HR's he had we would have likely hit around 20 HR's if he played the whole year which is hard to do. A lot of his hits were doubles and HR's which have more value than singles and walks so his slugging was an elite .551. Add it all up and that is a 1.044 OPS which again is elite. Oh and he did that primarily against 21 and 22 year old's and he was only 19. The Cherry on top none of those older players out performed him. He will only be 20 next year and he still has time to hit that precious .300 average as he was only 19 last year, but the bigger thing is he has proven he has elite power, elite eye at the plate, probably a five tool player which is very hard to find as well. I wouldn't get stuck to much on just batting average as you will be selling lot's of players short.

Emmanual Rodriguez was quite the pleasant surprise last year. I mean you could see it coming to some degree as he had an .870 OPS in the FCL but that came with a hefty 37% K rate. The walk rate was good (15%) as well but at that time it looked like there might be a massive hole in his swing/contact issues. It wasn't completely surprising given he was just 18 years old having skipped the DSL due to Covid and starting in the FCL. He still put his name on the prospect map with those numbers but it usually takes a while to fix contact issues and sometimes they never get fixed (i.e. Keoni Cavaco). How did he get so good so fast? He dropped his K rate to 26% and increased his walk rate to 29%. So he took more walks than he struck out and that raised his OnBase percentage and IMO increased his BABIP because he waited for good pitches to hit and he made more contact. Interestingly his slugging wasn't all that different from the year before. His plate discipline turned him from a flawed batter to an elite batter. There is a long way to go with tougher changeups and curves to face but he is far ahead of players his age at this point. If he continues to rake at High A and makes AA this year he could have super star potential as I believe he has an elite hard hit rate right now and if he controls the zone and doesn't get himself out he is going to be tough for pitchers to get out. I see lot's more walks in this man's future. Law had him number 1 in his Twins top 30 list and I think he is worthy but would like to see one more elite season out of him before going there. Emmanual Rodriguez could be the difference making bat the Twins have been looking for since Justin Morneua.

I might be in the minority but I don't mind the runner on 2nd rule. Technically if they want to speed things up it should probably be the runner on 1st and 2nd rule as most teams walk the next batter to have force outs in play. There are lot's of ways they could do it but I am fine with the rule that helps bullpens stay intact. I mean if they really wanted to not go past 9 innings they could just give the team with the most hits the victory. That would promote more batters that can just get hits versus the occasional HR. If hits are tied go to the team with the most walks wins it. .That gives walks more value as well. Don't like walks then the team with the fewest K's wins it to promote less striking out. Anyway for the regular season to stop games from going long I am fine with the man on second rule. I also think putting some limit on position players pitching isn't a horrible thing. Don't want to promote using it as a strategy IMO. Rules change in sports all the time and generally they make the game better.

I think an extra lefty wouldn't be a bad idea. I am not sure Hand would have been my ideal candidate but one more lefty reliever seems like a good idea for a club that wanted to add depth to all positions. I don't love Hand's peripherals but the sub 3 ERA outcome I could certainly live with. If the price is right and it is Hand or no one else then I would grab him. Vets can be valuable and having another lefty in case of injury makes a good deal of sense IMO. Hopefully the Twins help him find something extra and he rebounds finding more bat missing K's

I wasn't able to really watch him much so just have box scores to go on. He was young for the A ball level and pitched like a guy drafted out of the college ranks there. Stat line looks good all across with an excellent K\9 and WHIP solid ERA and not quite so kind FIP. Would have liked to see that ERA a bit lower as pitchers are protected somewhat in A ball but this being his first full year it makes sense to have more variation. The HR ball bit him a little, not horribly bad, but that is what brought his ERA and FIP up. If he cleans that up the stat line looks elite. He has solid command of all of his pitches and just needs more experience pitching at higher levels to sharpen his skills. If he is who the Twins seem to think he is he could be a mid to top of rotation starter. Hoping that arm stays healthy and can go the distance. This system needs all the potential high end starters they can find.

Not sure what to think about the pen. I have been back and forth pretty much on the fence about it all offseason. My only thought is that it would have been nice to find a solid to elite lefty just in case Theilbar gets injured or falls off a cliff and or Moran falls apart. For righties they have some depth with Henriquez, Winder, Sands, Dobnak, Varland, SWR, etc. So there are arms back there for them to use and if they are using 40 man spots on those guys they should try to figure out if they can play or be useful at the MLB level or not. There will be more players that need to added for next year and 40 man spots are valuable. I just hope the pen will stay in the top 4 all year this year. This team might have trouble scoring runs so the pen is going to be important IMO.

It is all about the bat for Jullien. Defense is never going to be plus it doesn't look like. He is an interesting bat and I can't say I have seen a player quite like him before. He walks (20%) Almost as much and he K's (25%). He hits for Average (.300) with incredibly high and usually unsustainably high BABIP's (.393) and yet he slugs around .490. It is an unconventional approach if you ask me and yet level after level he appears to be sustaining it. I have my doubts he can continue to be "that" good but it certainly seems like his eye at the plate is going to lift all stats so to speak. He has been incrediably consistent with his offensive approach so far and it will be interesting to see how it plays out at AAA and likley MLB. I hope he can keep this up and become an elite bat for the Twins but these last two levels are tough. Hopefully his approach wins out.

He has the pitches to be a starter. His stats at AA can't be dismissed and they are really good especially for a hitter's league. The changeup looks like it will be plus and curve and slider could end up plus with more work but the fastball velocity is far from elite. Still I can't argue with the 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at AA. He is hard to hit and while it would be nice if he had a bit better control he got the job done last year. Still he got sick mid season and in the past we have seen his arm wear down. If he can't keep it going then he looks more reliever than starter. He did manage 107 innings last year and hopefully he can add on to that at AAA this year. I want to say he is a starter but I need to see more stamina to be confident saying that. Even Law felt uncertain of his status as a starter and he didn't feel he had a plus pitch though I disagree with that. He could be special if he puts it all together. I will be watching him closely this year.

Yes and despite all his flaws that evaluators talked about he became the American League batting Champion. Just an amazing bat and eye for contact. He will be missed by all the fans who enjoyed what he brought to the team. As others have said these lists are just somewhat educated guess's and hopeful projection. A good number of top 100 players do make a difference but a lot of guys that were somewhat written off for one reason or another impact teams as well. It is an inexact science but I still love following the players and hope everyone of them finds a way to get to the majors. Unfortunately I have seen more of them not make it than make it.

First let me say I love your optimism and it certainly beats pessimism. When I first found TD I didn't really know how to follow prospects and I dreamed that pretty much every prospect in the top 30 was going to make it. It took a while but reality eventually settles in. Most of these guys don't make it. Some get too injured to keep going, some hang onto the fringes of rosters but eventually bite the dust and then yes some make it as OK to average players and a few make it as Stars or super stars. Here is a good little article that gives a few stats on top 100 players. Below is a screen shot of the Twins top 10 prospects in 2018. There were times we were talking about Romero and Gonsalves being mid rotation starters. Javier as the Twins Shortstop of the future. Rooker and Diaz as light tower power bats looking to bat cleanup at the MLB level. As you can see all of these players are still out their on the fringes but the outlook is grim. Lewis has yet to play a full heathy season since 2019. Gordon isn't considered a starter yet but is a super utility player. Kirilloff hasn't been healthy in several years now. Graterol was traded and is a good reliever but I don't know about great. Enlow isn't even on the 40 man anymore. There is still some hope left in this list especially Lewis but most of these players just were not the difference makers we all hoped they would be. To me that is the reality of prospects. It is really, really hard to become an MLB player. Those that do are special IMO. Still given my fairly brief glimpse into the prospect world hope and reality can collide quickly and the outcome generally is another player that didn't make it. Still it is fun to dream on these guys and how they might help the Twins. It is why we come to TD to talk about and share what we think players might become. Still the element of reality is far to few work out the way we hoped. FWIW Arraez was ranked 23rd on this list.

Yeah MLB.com had him around 25 on their list so late 1st round. He was hard to evaluate in his draft year for the same concerns being brought up on the board. He just hadn't pitched competitively in a long time so with less of a track record you take on more risk. Teams let him slide until the Twins grabbed him. I think Horton had been injured as well (rated 24) but pitched well down the stretch and the Cubs grabbed him at number 7. He was more of a power pitcher with a plus fastball and three pretty legit pitches IIRC. I think the concern on Prielipp beyond not throwing competitively was teams hadn't seen a big time fastball and that he might only be a two pitch pitcher so possibly more likely a reliever than starter. With so little track record it is impossible to know how this goes but we should have a better idea at the end of this year. He was elite his first year in a tough conference so he has the stuff IMO but like with most of these guys can the arm hold up to starting? We will see.

So far he Prielipp is living on past results. He has looked elite in the past but we have no idea what his arm can take at this point. I am hoping that the Twins found a top of the rotation lefty with tons of bat missing stuff. Still he could just be a two pitch pticher that ends up in the pen. We should know more after his first year but it will likely take up to his second year to know if the gamble paid off. If the arm holds up I have to believe he can be a difference maker but will have to wait and see. I liked the pick when they made it and still like it now. I believe he will be back just have to wait and see how it all plays out.

I still think it wouldn't be a bad idea to bring in a veteran arm, but lots of people on the board see room for the young guys to make noise if given opportunity. It is a tough call, but for me I would like a proven lefty to fall back on. Not sure how long Thielbar can work that magic and Moran was really good when up but the WHIP concerns me. They traded away Sisk so there isn't much for lefties left. Still given what we know about this FO and given they seem to have publicly said they are not likely adding to the pen adding a reliever seems unlikely IMO. Given the cost mentioned it seems even less likely. I think in the end I am fine either way they go, but do prefer paying a vet who has proven they can get it done.

I don't necessarily disagree as Salas's ratings appear to be a bit all over the place right now. MLB.com had him as the Marlins number 5 prospect but now has him as the Twins number 13 prospect. So essentially in the range you suggested. According to this Fangraphs article they have him rated 3rd in the Twins system (Per The Board, "Salas is now the Twins’ third-best prospect"). Some have him in the top 100 others don't. He is tough to gauge after those rough High A numbers. Still for perspective Rodriguez hasn't even made it to High A ball yet and he and Salas are around the same age. I definitely think Salas needs more polish to shine, but I still think he deserves top 10 status given his tools potential.