Dman

Yeah I agree he always had trouble as a starter making it through a season even in the minors. If they wreck his arm as a starter and he needs TJ he could be out for two years. He made it through a full season in the pen at the MLB level with minimal issues and is an elite arm in that role. Do you want to risk losing your elite shutdown arm for a chance for him to do something he never really proved he could do in the minors? If it were me and I admit to being risk averse but I would keep him where he is. The other issue is he never really did develop that solid third pitch he needed to be a starter so he might not have the same level of success he has had as a reliever. And finally how many guys are there in MLB that can throw 100MPH fairly consistently as a starter (maybe Greene)? I guess I am not aware of any so again I think reliever is the right role for Duran.

I don't know if you have been following Aaron Judge much but he is a career .284 hitter who K's about 28% of the time and just signed a contract to be the highest paid position player in baseball. I think that should tell you what teams value and it isn't batting average, it is OPS. I like Arraez a lot. Love his plate approach, his enthusiasm, and his work ethic. However, I would take Judge over Arraez any day of the week because with his power he can impact the game in ways Arraez just can't. Rodriquez is only in A ball but if he essentially maintains that profile all the way up he has a more valuable skillset than Arreaz at least the way baseball is played today. Granted Arraez can help the MLB team right now. Rodriguez could be years away yet hard to say.

While Kirilloff and and Larnach have more value they also haven't been much worse or better than Kepler at the plate and they have a lot more years of control left. The Twins thing to do would be to move the higher salaried player IMO. Also Keplers ceiling appears to be known while Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner are somewhat unknowns at this point. Certainly they could trade anyone of those players for the right deal I just think Kepler makes the most sense.

I go back and forth on Max's trade value. I mean several teams could have had a Max type player in Gallo for just money and yet the Twins managed to snag Gallo for a one year 11M contract. Max only costs 2.5M less and you have to give up trade capital as well. To me that says his market value might be lower than I was hoping. Still Max shows strong underlying numbers in a lot of area's and if the Yankee's did grab him with the short right field porch it could be a difference maker for Max. Just a few extra HR's that make it over that wall adds to his OBP and Slugging and I bet those numbers start looking much better. If the Twins do trade Max to the Yankee's they better make it hurt because I have a feeling he could have a monster season in the Bronx. I do agree with Mike though the Twins need to find a decent return or they might as well just hang onto Max. His value could increase by the deadline anyway. We will see if some team pony's up but it might be a while as teams continue to fill out rosters with FA's and decide what to spend there tradable assets on. Unless the Twins get a deal they deem to good to pass up I would probably hang onto Max.

Sorry just meant I don't think the Twins will trade him unless they get something worthwhile back.

I could be wrong but I don't see the Twins trading Kep for a bag of balls. A team is going to have to give them something decent to move him otherwise they can just try and build his value back and depending on where they are do a deadline deal. I agree they could still use him for depth if they want to. They do have a lot of outfielders on the 40 man though. Would hate to see the Yankee's get him as so many Twins seem to perform well once there. If they do trade him to the Yankee's they need to get something better back than John Ryan Murphy.

This is a very balanced synopsis, Thanks! Hopefully the young guys get started and make this team tough to beat.

In comparison to Max, Gallo seems to perform just a little bit better in OBP, SLG and ultimately OPS. Gallo's batting average is terrible and coupled with the K's he will be a rally killer more often than not IMO. The good defense does help a lot though as it makes him valuable beyond his bat. He might be a slight upgrade over Max but not much that I can see. Will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. If he can bounce back it would really help this team so I hope he does find his HR stroke again.

Other than Kepler I think the team pretty much remains the same and they might even hang onto Kepler if they can't find the right return. Will have to see how desperate Miami is to trade later on but if they want MLB players like Polanco or Arraez then those talks will be tough. The Twins did a bunch of trading to get Maeda, Mahle and Gray I guess I don't know why they would give up on that now by trading them before the season starts. Last years flawed and injury riddled team was in first place in the division for most of the first half. I think they role with what they have and see how things develop. Also if one or all of Maeda, Mahle and Gray have really good years they all could be QO candidates. So any return would need to keep that in mind. It could be that none of them are worthy of a QO as well but still it seems worth while to wait on rebuild scenario's until we see how this team as constructed works out.

Well I guess if you want a club house cancer Bauer is a good bet. His own team mates on the Dodgers wanted the FO to get rid of him even before the issue that got him suspended. If the Dodgers don't want him back I pity the team that grabs him. Maybe his ordeal was a wake up call, hard to say but old dogs are hard to change. I do believe in second chances but given the circumstances I don't think the Twins can take that kind of chance as they are about a little over a year after struggling with club house vibs of there own. Bauer would be a pass for me.

Not much FA action in the entire central this year. Seems like the White Sox are more interested in moving salary than anything else this year. If the Twins get a starter it needs to be a front of the rotation type of pitcher or they might as well stick with what they have. Once again they appear to have pitching depth with Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland and SWR with Paddack back maybe mid year. So lot's of 5th starter material to work with. They can't be counted on but if Balazovic, Enlow and Hedrick improve dramatically they could be depth as well. If they can't find a deal they like I can see them standing pat. If the FO thinks Polanco is a guy that gets it done not sure why they would hesitate. They would still have Arraez they can plug in there and Jullien seems likely to be ready for 2nd at some point next year and they also have Martin who can play there and Lee might be an option at Short or second so they are going to have to move somebody off this team at some point. Switch hitters are hard to come by but if the return is front of the rotation pitcher that this team desperately needs then I think they need to do it. Honestly unless they get a deal they like I think the Twins will stand pat with what they have. It isn't sexy but might be enough to take the central if this team can find a way to hit lefties.

I agree with you. Boegarts got a 280M deal and he was supposed to be second fiddle to Correa. The minimum I mean minimum had to be a 300M deal. If they were never going to go there it seemed hard to believe this was ever going to get done. Sorry but I don't buy Seth's theories on this. They had Correa all year last year what due diligence was left? If there was any then that makes this FO look incompetent IMO. If the Twins really wanted Correa they likely could have had him by adding an Option year where he gets 30M if the keep him and 15M to buy him out. That gets them over the 300M guaranteed and potentially matches the Mets offer. Maybe the Mets would have moved the bar further out then hard to say but I would have a lot more respect for their efforts if they had done that. I will say Boras feeling the need to move off of San Fran so quickly is odd and doesn't play well. As noted by others he is notoriously patient in making deals. Certainly seems like he could have given them through Christmas to make a decision. Still I guess with the deal falling through and Correa being aced out late in market last year he might not have wanted to wait for what he might have felt was an inevitable "no deal" from the Giants. It would have been hard to renegotiate with the Giants if they no longer wanted to go 13 years as it could set a precedent for teams outbidding and then exclusively negotiating after "finding something" in the physical. He also might have just been pissed and wanted to hurt SF by moving Correa elsewhere. Hard to say what the motivation might have been but I will agree with others that is suspicious. At any rate I am not too upset the Twins didn't get Correa for 10 years. Those last 3 to 4 to 5 years of talking what a dead weight he is would have sucked. However, my point stands. If this FO really wanted Correa I think they could have had him but the bar was 300M. They should have known that from the beginning. If they were not going to go there they probably had no business even bidding.

At this point In the end this whole thing seemed like a lose\lose for the FO. This board has already given them grief for signing guys that had potential injury concerns. Upping the offer after another team gave pause to how long Correa might last seems like a bad idea for a small market team. I mean even the generally free spending Giant didn't want to take on the risk why would the Twins? I don't really blame the FO not getting back into this mess if they even had much of a chance anyway. Cohen would have out bid them almost no matter what they put out there for a number. If Correa "really" wanted to be in Minnesota he could have taken a small discount to do it. He chose not to and that tells me all I need to know. Time to just move on.

Yeah I think most likely the Twins said last offer was it. I think they felt plenty uncomfortable offering that contract and with some new medical concerns I doubt they were willing to go higher. At any rate even if they had moved to 300M Cohen would have just upped the anti IMO. From what I have read he is a pretty persuasive guy and willing to put his money where his mouth is. The Mets will be in it every year and Correa just a cog there. If he went with the Twins likely a lot of losing in his future and very limited opportunities to be on the big stage for the world series. Seems like a no brainer to go to the Mets even if the contracts were equal to me. Even if the Twins paid more he might have gone to the Mets All Star team as the game is a lot more fun when you are winning.

Boy was I wrong. I thought the Giants would keep Correa for sure. Can't believe the Mets got it done essentially paying 52M per year for Correa. That is going to be one tough team I can see why Correa wanted to go there. The Mets will need to keep those arms healthy and they have some older arms but if they do they look World Series bound to me.

I don't know that I am convinced this is a deal breaker for SF. They might want to restructure with option years or something hard to say but I think at the end of the day this gets done. He was fine last year and he was never making it the full 13 years they gave him anyway. Not aware of his ankle being an issue more his back. We will see but I can't see SF backing out now.

I think you can depend on Gordon for a mid 700 OPS. He has been right around those numbers most of his career and as he adjusted a tick better at times. He is a solid defender at all outfield positions and a plus defender in left field. Probably plus at 2nd base as well but he doesn't get much time there. I was ready to trade him going in to last year but once truly healthy he had a really good year. Hoping for more of the same as he is an important part of this team now.

I got to tell you I am starting to come around on your theory. These mid guys generally are not difference makers and at 11 to 15 mil per pop they are not cheap either.

It is most likely going to be Mark Contreras coming off the the 40 man, but I also see a Kepler trade in the future as well.

So you need a right handed bat in the outfield and you go and get another left handed bat with high K numbers. Just what we needed? Obviously this means Kepler is being traded for sure. Just a matter of time. Not the news I was hoping to hear. The Twins must see a rebound coming because his OPS was worse than Keplers last year and he isn't the defender Kepler is either. His career batting average is .199 so there is that to look forward too.

Lee would need a Monster AA start to the season and then conquer AAA for at least a month to get a chance. Not sure he is gonna be ready that fast. They both look more likely to get called up in August or September. Not sure how long until Lewis can get started this year but since he already proved he can handle AAA he still looks first in line to me. I do hope Lee is ready sooner rather than later. We need both of those players to be success stories ASAP or it is going to be hard for this team to compete in the short term.

Twins must have really believed they were going to get Correa to have gotten rid of Gio. Probably had Farmer pegged as the third basemen spelling Correa on occasion at short. Guess they should have waited as now they either need a SS or third baseman in Turner to make things work. Lewis and Lee have never been more important to the Twins future than right now. Really need both of them to step up into roles that will help this team now and in the future.

Almost 30M per year for 6 years? No Thanks. We will see how this one ends up but that Yankee rotation looks really, really good right now. They are going to be a team to be reckoned with if they stay healthy.

Really appreciate the insight! Thanks for the thoughtful analysis! As a fan\arm chair GM I wasn't enamored with even a ten year deal for Correa and yes I am one of those posters who didn't think 285M would get it done and it didn't. I don't know if you can call even 285M for 10 years disciplined as even that contract was not likely to age well and yet they offered it, but yes in general I believe this FO has been disciplined in there financial approach. Sticking with shorter term contracts and trading for the talent they need. I thought they were pretty aggressive trying to get starting pitching last year but they got burned by the pen early in the season and the offense never really did click all that well last season, Still they were in first place for the majority of the year but for as close as the club house was they never really gelled results wise on the field. I don't know if not getting Correa or Rodon are the be all end all for this team. They need better starting pitching and a more consistent pen and I think they can compete with anyone. Thanks again for giving your perspective! It is nice to get a feel for what it feels like inside a FO.

Very nice post! It is possible they were hoping he would take less to stay in MN and maybe in the end that is why SF needed to bump their offer 70M over the Twins offer. Still I think the Twins needed a way to get to at least 300M to have a chance. Every team has their limits and I am guessing the Twins felt they stretched as far as they could go at 285M. I have to believe that kind of money for that many years made them very uncomfortable as it was. Still they had to know SF was likely going to make him the highest paid shortstop. I don't think Boras was going to give in until he got that for Correa. IMO They needed to get closer to that mark for Correa to do an I like MN discount. An extra 70M is pretty hard to turn down no matter how much you like MN. If they "truly" wanted him they needed to do better than that.