Dman

Many of us have been high on Moran for years now. It is simply the walks and untimely hits that were his kryptonite. If he has control of his pitches when he comes in he looks elite but when he starts walking guys things can get out of hand. Hopefully the consistency is there this year as we need him to make this a better than average pen.

I don't necessarily disagree but they essentially already lost Santana in favor of Hoffman so I have to believe they are going to give him first crack. DeLeon doesn't have an opt out so guessing they stash him and see what Hoffman has. Otherwise he will opt out and they will get no shot. I haven't been overly impressed to this point but the metrics paint a nice picture. Hopefully more chances to see both this spring and see if one or the other can separate themselves.

I am going off of this article on Twins Daily\ So somebody is wrong.

I sure hope Deleon is back to his old self. He could make the Twins bullpen really good. I think Hoffman has the inside track though as I believe he has an opt out. DeLeon was a little wild early this spring and gave up a HR would need to see more especially against MLB bats to see where he really is at. Out of the list I like him best as the arm to make it.

I'm sure I don't completely understand the numbers but it seems like in years past most teams in our division tried to stay below the 130M threshold. Even the Twins tried not to go over that number until recently. If they are 30M over where they need to be it sure seems like they might have painted themselves into a corner to some degree. I mean they have the Correa and Buxton salaries tying up a good chunk of payroll the next 6 years or so. Player salaries in Free agency appear to only be going up. If the current level of payroll is not sustainable they are really gonna need the farm to produce. I know for owners this isn't a zero sum game they are in this to make money but there were a lot of lean years during the rebuild with much lower payrolls where the team had to be making good money. It is nice to see them "overspend" to make this team stronger. In the past I said I was fine with lower payrolls as long as they spent to the max once the team was a winning more. It looks like they are doing that. I think that is noteworthy. I am no Pohlad apologist as I am certain they are making money on the team one way or another but they appear to be decent owners IMO. They took a loss like most of baseball during the pandemic and paid their minor league players for the full season when some teams did not. They appear to treat their employee's well and are loyal to them giving them the tools to succeed. The organization as a whole is well thought of by any player that comes to play for the team so they have built a good culture. Both Cruz and Odorizzi wanted to come back if given the chance I believe and both had great things to say about the organization. Those things along with increased payroll make me feel like ownership has put the team in a decent spot. I went to a game with my little girl and she got picked to run around the field during the 7th inning stretch so that was a great fan experience for her. It happened to be her first time in the park and that was the highlight for her. So they do try to engage young fans when and where they can. For as much as I am willing to complain about ownership I think they should be recognized for at least trying to go above and beyond profit\lose statements to create a winning team. Not sure this level of payroll will last long but to me I like that they are least trying to make my favorite team better despite not making as much money as they would like.

When it comes to Maeda I would say I am concerned but not panicked just yet. Spring training makes it tough to gauge where guys are at. I believe every starter except maybe Pablo had a tough spring outing and couldn't finish innings and had to come back in later in the game and or let more runs score than they would have liked. Right now Mahle has had the same control\velocity problem as Maeda and he isn't in this article. When real games start they will have a detailed plan for how they want him to attack hitters etc. I just think it is too early to draw any "major" conclusions on Maeda. I will say I agree with others that TJ takes time to come back from so concerns are legit but let's wait until the season starts and he airs it out more before getting too bent out of shape. He gets one more spring start and it looks like the pitchers are honing in for the season as both Gray and Ryan had really good games their last time out. Let's see how he does in his last spring start. The thing I like about Maeda is he is someone willing to bet on himself and fair minded enough to only want to get paid for the production he provides. He knows he needs to perform to reach those incentives and you know he is going to work hard to get there. Will his body\arm cooperate? That is the unknown right now but I know he will do everything he can to succeed. I for one am not gonna bet against a very disciplined and detail oriented player even if the odds might not be in his favor.

Shuffield was the surprise performer for me. A 5' 9" senior sign that looked like a money saving move and was an after thought for me. His first year in pro ball he puts up a .305 average and 915 OPS. Those numbers would have been good in rookie ball but the majority of his at bats came at AAA. While there he hit 271\314\542 for an OPS of 856. That seems pretty amazing for a guy fresh out of college playing against near ready MLB pitching. Pitchers with good breaking stuff usually hand cuffs less experienced bats but Shuffield held his own. He is older though at 24 and it would be nice if they dumped him at AA so he could be a potential legit prospect for a year or two but we will see where he starts out. At any rate he played extremely well for an after thought and if he has a good to great season this could be a case where a 10th round pick makes it. From what I understand he has the defense to stay at short but likely a utility player unless his power does play then he can probably play just about anywhere. I also like pick number 17 Alec Sayre. The batting average was only .244 but the OBP was .448. I am a big believer in guys who have a good eye at the plate as they work their way into favorable counts they usually get something good to hit and if not are not making outs swinging out of the zone. Not much power so that is something he will need to improve on but for pick 17 there are things to work with and I will be watching him this year. I like both catchers but the sample size is too small to know much. Same with most of the pitchers just didn't do enough so nothing much I can say other than I hope they all work out. Should be a fun A ball team to watch and it will be interesting which players excel this year.

I think if the Twins can get him to throw strikes he looks very interesting to me. He managed a 1.41 WHIP last year which is the lowest it has ever been in his entire career. You start getting that WHIP into the 1.5 area and bad things generally happen to a pitchers ERA so needs to better limit contact and find solid control. Guessing that is why Cinci didn't take him back. So far this spring he looks pretty much the same as he has in his career granted his K9 of 18 is elite but the two walks and two hits in three innings work is what has given him an ERA of 6. All SSS but still pretty much in line with what he has always done except K rate. Like this well written article states a little improvement could make him a solid middle relief option and maybe top end if he really refines his stuff. Nice to project positive vibes but he still has to perform. Will be interesting to see how his spring shakes out. I agree with the article though that the Twins were hoping Santana would clear so they could have their cake and eat it too but with the Mets down a reliever and maybe in some need for some Correa payback grabbed him instead. All these fringe guys are wild cards though as they have weaknesses to overcome. Here is hoping the Twins find a way to help Hoffman be the best pitcher he has been in his career thus far.

Nice article and I have thought about those scenarios as well. Like others I think a Maeda QO is pretty unlikely. If he does well I could see the Twins trying to pay him for a couple of more years but at 35 the odds seem to be that they will just let him walk but let's see how well he does this year as that could change things. Things have to go right for Mahle and Gray to get QO's but given their past performance it sure seems like they will be worthy if they just stay healthy. The question is will the Twins want one of them longer term or just QO for draft compensation. Gallo needs to have a good year but if he does it would be a real good outcome to get good production out of him and get draft pick compensation. If the Twins managed to get three extra comp picks that would help offset what they gave away to get those arms and give the farm a boost. A lot has to go right but it sure would be nice if it happened.

I am banking on him being all star caliber and have stated such myself. Still there is uncertainty with swing changes and rule changes IMO. Not gonna lie, Yes I did cherry pick to a degree but it was more to show the general feeling at the time that a lot of people on this board were feeling around the end of July. He wasn't helping as much as we thought he would through the end of July and I was talking about the early numbers as my initial statement was he didn't help help as much as hoped through the end of July. He had 2 bad months one and a half good months. Baseball reference shows his end of July OPS at .783 and it would go all the way down to .764 August 12th. I get that isn't horrible or anything but for a 30M dollar player I think most of us were expecting more the first 4 months of the season. I also generally don't trust September numbers all that much as teams that are out of it aren't always playing their best players or have traded away some of their best players and we play more games in our division which is weaker than most so numbers can get inflated IMO. I get that a hit is hit no matter the competition but like I said I have a tougher time trusting those numbers as carry overs. He really turned things up a notch after August 12th and had a really good year overall. I am only stating things were not looking all that great at the end of July last year. I hope his swing change is for real as I stated above we need him to carry this team from the start as he and Buxton are likely the heart and soul of this team. We need them both to perform to get to the next level.

I probably mis-stated my position but in April he had a 600 OPS in July he had another 600 OPS. He had a good May but out for a while and the overall numbers still were not good by May. He had an all star June though 1.000 OPS only to sink back down in July to a 600 OPS. So one elite month and a shortened good month and two bad months left a sour taste for me. I mean I think in July there was talk that Nick Gordon might have a better bat or certainly was getting too close to Correa's level of production at the time. Correa righted the ship in August even better in September and very good in the few October games to lift his overall numbers well above most players on the Twins team. Still he was in trouble at the end of July. Not the production you would want for a 30M per year player IMO. I just feel that if he wasn't grounding into double plays and being a near automatic out those first couple of months maybe we win a few more early games. July was an important month to gain ground and he was bad that month as well. Still with all the injuries maybe all was lost no matter what. Just saying by the time Correa's bat really came around the team was already decimated by injuries it was too late to make the difference it could have made early in the season. I think at the end of July there was talk he might need to stay with Twins another year because the number weren't that great offensively or defensively for a guy who wanted 30M per year. Kudos to Correa as he rode those late numbers to dispel any issues with the bat but it was far from easy sailing IMO. And yes in the end it came too little to late as the Twins didn't even make the playoffs.

Personally while I don't know a ton about Clark if the top two pitchers don't fall he is my preferred pick. I have read a couple of places now that some scouts don't see him as a top 5 pick? Some scouts are not as high on the hit tool and don't think his stroke has power projection. As Jeremey said above maybe once HS season gets going perceptions will change. I like the pick because the Twins don't have an elite defensive centerfielder in the system that I can see and with Clark having 5 tool potential that is just the type of guy you take at the top of the draft. No guarantee Clark turns out as well as Carroll did but Carroll dropped to the mid first round when he was drafted (due to poor power projection) and looks like he could be a perennial all star player. I just think Clark is a really good player for what the Twins need and I think he reaches that 5 tool potential. He is a perfect fit for the next wave of young hitters the Twins have. Several which will be in the GCL and A ball this year. I really like the top 4 guys as well but I disagree this is a 4 player top tier. I think is a very strong top 10 and the next 15 picks after that have some good quality as well. Even if the Twins were still at 13 they would have gotten a good player as this draft is just that strong IMO. I hope Clark is the pick. He is my perfect pick for the Twins given the draft falls that way.

I did read that article in the Athletic and I am interested to see if it all carries over. I agree with you he looks like he is gonna be "more" ready to start the year this year but I am still just cautiously optimistic as he seems to have a history of being a slow starter on offense and I remember a point mid season being very disappointed with his offensive production. Hoping the new swing is .900 OPS ready but not ready to be a "true" believer just yet. It is gonna take some time to shake off some of last year for me. I also agree with your concerns on his defense but I still feel positive about him being able to play there.. I realize he doesn't have the speed to cover some extra ground other shortstops can but I still think he is so strong at fielding and throwing that he will stick there. I never realized just how important getting set and making good strong throws is for a shortstop. I always felt range was more important but too often even if they can get to a ball that maybe another can't if you can't set and make a strong throw it is a hit or worse error anyway. I am still bullish on his defense but yeah this year with the rule change could really change my opinion. It is gonna be an interesting year where making contact is going to be more important than it has been in a while. I really, really like Correa and I think he is key to the success of this team but the swing and rule changes really make it hard to pinpoint how that will all work out IMO.

I just want to see a bit more consistency. He was pretty brutal to start the season last year certainly not a difference maker and by the time he got hot it didn't matter. I am hoping the swing changes help him produce at a higher level as he is a very important part of this team and we are going to need to lean on his bat at times. He has proven he can do it in the past and he seems really focused this year. I like the odds that he becomes the alpha this team needs.

That seems the most likely option as things stand. Maeda has a good faith contract with incentives based on starting. The Twins won't put him in the pen as they have done everything they can to help players on incentive laden contracts reach their incentive's. Look no further than Buxton last year. They let him limp around on one leg to try and get him as many plate attempts\games played as possible. A team has to follow through on those types of deals otherwise players will never sign them. I guess they could offer to pay Maeda the full value of this years contract with the stipulation of playing him anywhere but at least in the past he has always viewed himself as a starter and would like to remain a starter so still not sure if he would go along with that or not. I just don't see Maeda in the pen unless his arm wears down and I don't see the Twins changing the terms of the contract that they signed on for. So yeah I think you are right is they are only going 5 starters then Ober most likely starts in AAA.

So far this spring Ober has shown he is a legit starter and he already has a good track record in MLB, it is just injury that has held him back. I am not sure I love the 6 man rotation idea unless the starters are all pretty consistent to start the year and can go 6 innings fairly consistently. At the same time you can't put a starting arm in AAA if he is one of your best 26 players he needs to be on the MLB club and I believe Ober is too good to be playing in AAA. I think I would rather they do some type of Piggy backing starters concept and I think a Maeda\Ober pairing are two guys who could use fewer innings pitched and would be good used that way. One guy starts and goes 5 innings and the other could hopefully take the next 4. Both guys can stay stretched out and it doesn't have to ding the the bullpen too much. I get there is risk in that approach as one guy could be rolling and then next guy could flop or vice versa but for me it is a way to use your best 6 starting pitchers and not hurt the bullpen too much. I think Ober is too good to get squeezed out so they need to do something to keep him on the roster. Whether that is a 6 man rotation or bullpen long man type deal doesn't matter to me as long as the best arms are pitching at the MLB level.

I am with you on Headrick. He really surprised me this spring. The Twins gave him chances against MLB hitters and he performed really well. 7 innings pitched, 5 hits, 2 walks, 10 K's a 1.00 WHIP and 2,57 ERA shows he has some really good potential. I know he is a soft tossing lefty so to speak but I kind of expected him to struggle. Also since he only spent half a season in AA last year I expected him to start there so the Twins must like what they see as AAA could be crowded with starters and they still sent him there. I have to believe they think he is a legitimate lefty starter possibly as soon as this year if he continues to perform at AAA. That is the only reason to send him to AAA right from the get go IMO.

For me personally I don't see that Randy Dobnak has improved enough to be a solution on the MLB team. He hasn't had good control this spring 7 walks in 9 innings. He still doesn't have a strike out pitch with only 4 K's in 9 innings and he has given up 8 hits in 9 innings. Yeah it is a shiny 1.86 ERA but he is one mistake away from a bloated ERA as well. He is still the same pitch to contact pitcher he always was with no out pitch that pretty much wasn't good enough in 2020 and 2021. I like Randy and want him to succeed as much as anyone but this is the same old Randy and he needs to be the new and improved Randy to make it IMO. Right now I would rather have Winder, Varland, SWR, Henriquez, and De Leon ahead of him. Still some spring left and things can change but right now I don't see it. While I can see sending Jullien down since he got no AAA time I hope the Twins realize his approach and results haven't changed much no matter the level. He could be fine starting with the big club IMO but I am guessing that with it likely being a time share situation they want him to get consistent at bat's at AAA and wait for a more solid opening. I am fine with that and if he rakes at AAA as I suspect he will it will force their hand anyway. So far Donny barrels has been anti barrel with one hit in 15 try's. I think Jullien can do better than that.

Both Gallo and Kepler are having nice springs so far and they also have been going up against starters at least the first time through the order. Granted it is spring where the variable level of competition, small sample sizes and stats render most trends meaningless. Still it is nice to see both players making contact and having good numbers which beats the alternative of struggling in spring training. It is interesting how much both players have been in the lineup as it looks like with the swing changes they made they want to get them as much "real world" at bats as possible. Right now Kepler has been the best at making contact between the two as he has only K'd 2 times in 23 PA. Gallo an OK 6k's in 22 attempts which is acceptable but it would be nice if he made more contact. SSS is so small things can change drastically with one HR but still I am encouraged by what both have done this spring so far. Hopefully both have career years this year.

I want to be optimistic on Deleon but he only threw 20 to 30 innings in 2021 and 2022 between Milb and MLB. He hasn't thrown 100 innings since 2015 which is 8 years ago. At this stage he is probably best used as a reliever. He has had a strong spring with just one outing where he struggled with his control and got dinged for a 3 run home run. He has 1 walk this spring and 9K's in 4.2 innings of work. He is missing bats with his stuff and is in the running for Sire of FT. Meyers. I confess I don't know how hard he throws or even really what he throws but given his recent results he looks like an MLB arm right now. Will have to see how things play out as Spring training ramps up but it sure would be nice to find an elite bullpen arm out of nowhere. Jullien looks like the same guy no matter what level he plays at. If I were a pitcher I would stick to the corners early and not throw fastballs until later in the count. Keep the fastballs on the edges as well. If you are pitcher you need to be dialed in when Facing Jullien or he will gladly take his walk. Looks like Pablo gonna Pablo. If the arm holds up it looks like the Twins got what they needed.

The Twins don't have a history of extending pitchers so it seems unlikely they get a deal done unless one of those players want to take a discount. Kenta seems the most likely player to be in the Twins range financially. He doesn't throw all that hard and seems to have a hard time not dropping off during a full season. Not sure what his Market value will be but I assume in range for the Twins if they want him back and he wants to stay with the Twins. Gray is a wild card for me. If he performs well again this year I think he is the kind of pitcher that could get a three year deal with a fairly high AAV. He is no ace but he appears to be a consistent performer that could bolster any teams rotation. He might be worth the QO hard to say but I think it will be tough for the Twins to sign him. If Mahle stays healthy and pitches a pretty normal season for him I can't see the Twins retaining him. He is young enough for a 5 to 6 year deal at signicant AAV (i.e. Jose Berrios). If the shoulder issue pops up then maybe the Twins have a chance but if there are injury concerns then why go after him? The Twins don't like long contracts for pitchers. I don't know that any of these guys other than Mahle would get a long contract so I think they could extend the other two if they want to invest the money there. They broke the mold somewhat with Correa. Maybe they find a way to hang onto one or two of these guys. I think it will depend on how well they pitch this year before we will know.

I am worried about Lopez as we paid a high price to get him IMO. The price paid wasn't for an average reliver it was supposed to be for a high leverage arm. Still he was a bit unlucky with the Twins as I saw a fair number of slow rollers go for base hits. He had guys beating it into the ground at times and still managing to get on base. That being said he also gave up a lot of hard contact with the Twins as well. I don't know what the issues were or are but this pen is built with him in mind as a high leverage reliever. We need him to be the guy we think he was and he should have the pitches to be that guy. Haven't seen him much this spring but hoping he returns to all star form as we are going to need him to be successful.

I am with you on Castro. I know he might be fools gold this spring but defensively he is solid. He is a switch hitter and only 25 according to MLB.com. He also has 4 years of MLB experience so ahead of guys like Helman and Prato in the experience department. A break through with the bat and he looks really good as a utility player. Still his spring is deceiving to some degree as he is K'ing at a 40% rate right now granted he generally K's at a 20 to 25% rate and his BABIP is a sky high at .666 this spring. So regression is coming. In the past his batting average has been in the lower 200's but if he can find a little bit more power and just a bit more contact his OPS will rise and he sure looks like a major league option to me. Also would be nice if he finds his stroke to get some payback for Tigers stealing Baddoo. It is all still up in the air but I am hoping Castro can improve at the plate and give the Twins a boost.

It is a real tough start for Jordan and I am guessing he won't be in peak shape to start with the broken jaw issue. Still I am hoping that the knee issue is gone and he can get back to who he was. Might be a rough start for him but am hoping as the year goes on he shows some level of dominance. It might not be now or never for him but he is taking up a 40 man spot so another really bad year and the Twins likely free that spot for someone else who can or will make a difference. Not much room for unproductive spots on the 40 man.

I was thinking the same thing. An older player with some MLB experience but hasn't quite had the bat to make it. Plays all three spots and if he can get the bat working maybe he gets a chance. But just like last year he is pretty much a break glass in emergency type of player at this point.