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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Nice article and I have thought about those scenarios as well. Like others I think a Maeda QO is pretty unlikely. If he does well I could see the Twins trying to pay him for a couple of more years but at 35 the odds seem to be that they will just let him walk but let's see how well he does this year as that could change things. Things have to go right for Mahle and Gray to get QO's but given their past performance it sure seems like they will be worthy if they just stay healthy. The question is will the Twins want one of them longer term or just QO for draft compensation. Gallo needs to have a good year but if he does it would be a real good outcome to get good production out of him and get draft pick compensation. If the Twins managed to get three extra comp picks that would help offset what they gave away to get those arms and give the farm a boost. A lot has to go right but it sure would be nice if it happened.
  2. Dman
    I am banking on him being all star caliber and have stated such myself. Still there is uncertainty with swing changes and rule changes IMO. Not gonna lie, Yes I did cherry pick to a degree but it was more to show the general feeling at the time that a lot of people on this board were feeling around the end of July. He wasn't helping as much as we thought he would through the end of July and I was talking about the early numbers as my initial statement was he didn't help help as much as hoped through the end of July. He had 2 bad months one and a half good months. Baseball reference shows his end of July OPS at .783 and it would go all the way down to .764 August 12th. I get that isn't horrible or anything but for a 30M dollar player I think most of us were expecting more the first 4 months of the season. I also generally don't trust September numbers all that much as teams that are out of it aren't always playing their best players or have traded away some of their best players and we play more games in our division which is weaker than most so numbers can get inflated IMO. I get that a hit is hit no matter the competition but like I said I have a tougher time trusting those numbers as carry overs. He really turned things up a notch after August 12th and had a really good year overall. I am only stating things were not looking all that great at the end of July last year. I hope his swing change is for real as I stated above we need him to carry this team from the start as he and Buxton are likely the heart and soul of this team. We need them both to perform to get to the next level.
  3. Dman
    I probably mis-stated my position but in April he had a 600 OPS in July he had another 600 OPS. He had a good May but out for a while and the overall numbers still were not good by May. He had an all star June though 1.000 OPS only to sink back down in July to a 600 OPS. So one elite month and a shortened good month and two bad months left a sour taste for me. I mean I think in July there was talk that Nick Gordon might have a better bat or certainly was getting too close to Correa's level of production at the time. Correa righted the ship in August even better in September and very good in the few October games to lift his overall numbers well above most players on the Twins team. Still he was in trouble at the end of July. Not the production you would want for a 30M per year player IMO. I just feel that if he wasn't grounding into double plays and being a near automatic out those first couple of months maybe we win a few more early games. July was an important month to gain ground and he was bad that month as well. Still with all the injuries maybe all was lost no matter what. Just saying by the time Correa's bat really came around the team was already decimated by injuries it was too late to make the difference it could have made early in the season. I think at the end of July there was talk he might need to stay with Twins another year because the number weren't that great offensively or defensively for a guy who wanted 30M per year. Kudos to Correa as he rode those late numbers to dispel any issues with the bat but it was far from easy sailing IMO. And yes in the end it came too little to late as the Twins didn't even make the playoffs.
  4. Dman
    Personally while I don't know a ton about Clark if the top two pitchers don't fall he is my preferred pick. I have read a couple of places now that some scouts don't see him as a top 5 pick? Some scouts are not as high on the hit tool and don't think his stroke has power projection. As Jeremey said above maybe once HS season gets going perceptions will change. I like the pick because the Twins don't have an elite defensive centerfielder in the system that I can see and with Clark having 5 tool potential that is just the type of guy you take at the top of the draft. No guarantee Clark turns out as well as Carroll did but Carroll dropped to the mid first round when he was drafted (due to poor power projection) and looks like he could be a perennial all star player. I just think Clark is a really good player for what the Twins need and I think he reaches that 5 tool potential. He is a perfect fit for the next wave of young hitters the Twins have. Several which will be in the GCL and A ball this year. I really like the top 4 guys as well but I disagree this is a 4 player top tier. I think is a very strong top 10 and the next 15 picks after that have some good quality as well. Even if the Twins were still at 13 they would have gotten a good player as this draft is just that strong IMO. I hope Clark is the pick. He is my perfect pick for the Twins given the draft falls that way.
  5. Dman
    I did read that article in the Athletic and I am interested to see if it all carries over. I agree with you he looks like he is gonna be "more" ready to start the year this year but I am still just cautiously optimistic as he seems to have a history of being a slow starter on offense and I remember a point mid season being very disappointed with his offensive production. Hoping the new swing is .900 OPS ready but not ready to be a "true" believer just yet. It is gonna take some time to shake off some of last year for me. I also agree with your concerns on his defense but I still feel positive about him being able to play there.. I realize he doesn't have the speed to cover some extra ground other shortstops can but I still think he is so strong at fielding and throwing that he will stick there. I never realized just how important getting set and making good strong throws is for a shortstop. I always felt range was more important but too often even if they can get to a ball that maybe another can't if you can't set and make a strong throw it is a hit or worse error anyway. I am still bullish on his defense but yeah this year with the rule change could really change my opinion. It is gonna be an interesting year where making contact is going to be more important than it has been in a while. I really, really like Correa and I think he is key to the success of this team but the swing and rule changes really make it hard to pinpoint how that will all work out IMO.
  6. Dman
    I just want to see a bit more consistency. He was pretty brutal to start the season last year certainly not a difference maker and by the time he got hot it didn't matter. I am hoping the swing changes help him produce at a higher level as he is a very important part of this team and we are going to need to lean on his bat at times. He has proven he can do it in the past and he seems really focused this year. I like the odds that he becomes the alpha this team needs.
  7. Dman
    Yeah Seth did a writeup on him for Twins Daily in 2022. Got to read those top 5 posts. And further back in 2019 he said this. Sounds like it has been a bit of a long road but he made some top 5 list along the way. He has potential but likely a AAA arm.
  8. Dman
    That seems the most likely option as things stand. Maeda has a good faith contract with incentives based on starting. The Twins won't put him in the pen as they have done everything they can to help players on incentive laden contracts reach their incentive's. Look no further than Buxton last year. They let him limp around on one leg to try and get him as many plate attempts\games played as possible. A team has to follow through on those types of deals otherwise players will never sign them. I guess they could offer to pay Maeda the full value of this years contract with the stipulation of playing him anywhere but at least in the past he has always viewed himself as a starter and would like to remain a starter so still not sure if he would go along with that or not. I just don't see Maeda in the pen unless his arm wears down and I don't see the Twins changing the terms of the contract that they signed on for. So yeah I think you are right is they are only going 5 starters then Ober most likely starts in AAA.
  9. Dman
    So far this spring Ober has shown he is a legit starter and he already has a good track record in MLB, it is just injury that has held him back. I am not sure I love the 6 man rotation idea unless the starters are all pretty consistent to start the year and can go 6 innings fairly consistently. At the same time you can't put a starting arm in AAA if he is one of your best 26 players he needs to be on the MLB club and I believe Ober is too good to be playing in AAA. I think I would rather they do some type of Piggy backing starters concept and I think a Maeda\Ober pairing are two guys who could use fewer innings pitched and would be good used that way. One guy starts and goes 5 innings and the other could hopefully take the next 4. Both guys can stay stretched out and it doesn't have to ding the the bullpen too much. I get there is risk in that approach as one guy could be rolling and then next guy could flop or vice versa but for me it is a way to use your best 6 starting pitchers and not hurt the bullpen too much. I think Ober is too good to get squeezed out so they need to do something to keep him on the roster. Whether that is a 6 man rotation or bullpen long man type deal doesn't matter to me as long as the best arms are pitching at the MLB level.
  10. Dman
    I am with you on Headrick. He really surprised me this spring. The Twins gave him chances against MLB hitters and he performed really well. 7 innings pitched, 5 hits, 2 walks, 10 K's a 1.00 WHIP and 2,57 ERA shows he has some really good potential. I know he is a soft tossing lefty so to speak but I kind of expected him to struggle. Also since he only spent half a season in AA last year I expected him to start there so the Twins must like what they see as AAA could be crowded with starters and they still sent him there. I have to believe they think he is a legitimate lefty starter possibly as soon as this year if he continues to perform at AAA. That is the only reason to send him to AAA right from the get go IMO.
  11. Dman
    For me personally I don't see that Randy Dobnak has improved enough to be a solution on the MLB team. He hasn't had good control this spring 7 walks in 9 innings. He still doesn't have a strike out pitch with only 4 K's in 9 innings and he has given up 8 hits in 9 innings. Yeah it is a shiny 1.86 ERA but he is one mistake away from a bloated ERA as well. He is still the same pitch to contact pitcher he always was with no out pitch that pretty much wasn't good enough in 2020 and 2021. I like Randy and want him to succeed as much as anyone but this is the same old Randy and he needs to be the new and improved Randy to make it IMO. Right now I would rather have Winder, Varland, SWR, Henriquez, and De Leon ahead of him. Still some spring left and things can change but right now I don't see it. While I can see sending Jullien down since he got no AAA time I hope the Twins realize his approach and results haven't changed much no matter the level. He could be fine starting with the big club IMO but I am guessing that with it likely being a time share situation they want him to get consistent at bat's at AAA and wait for a more solid opening. I am fine with that and if he rakes at AAA as I suspect he will it will force their hand anyway. So far Donny barrels has been anti barrel with one hit in 15 try's. I think Jullien can do better than that.
  12. Dman
    Both Gallo and Kepler are having nice springs so far and they also have been going up against starters at least the first time through the order. Granted it is spring where the variable level of competition, small sample sizes and stats render most trends meaningless. Still it is nice to see both players making contact and having good numbers which beats the alternative of struggling in spring training. It is interesting how much both players have been in the lineup as it looks like with the swing changes they made they want to get them as much "real world" at bats as possible. Right now Kepler has been the best at making contact between the two as he has only K'd 2 times in 23 PA. Gallo an OK 6k's in 22 attempts which is acceptable but it would be nice if he made more contact. SSS is so small things can change drastically with one HR but still I am encouraged by what both have done this spring so far. Hopefully both have career years this year.
  13. Dman
    I want to be optimistic on Deleon but he only threw 20 to 30 innings in 2021 and 2022 between Milb and MLB. He hasn't thrown 100 innings since 2015 which is 8 years ago. At this stage he is probably best used as a reliever. He has had a strong spring with just one outing where he struggled with his control and got dinged for a 3 run home run. He has 1 walk this spring and 9K's in 4.2 innings of work. He is missing bats with his stuff and is in the running for Sire of FT. Meyers. I confess I don't know how hard he throws or even really what he throws but given his recent results he looks like an MLB arm right now. Will have to see how things play out as Spring training ramps up but it sure would be nice to find an elite bullpen arm out of nowhere. Jullien looks like the same guy no matter what level he plays at. If I were a pitcher I would stick to the corners early and not throw fastballs until later in the count. Keep the fastballs on the edges as well. If you are pitcher you need to be dialed in when Facing Jullien or he will gladly take his walk. Looks like Pablo gonna Pablo. If the arm holds up it looks like the Twins got what they needed.
  14. Dman
    The Twins don't have a history of extending pitchers so it seems unlikely they get a deal done unless one of those players want to take a discount. Kenta seems the most likely player to be in the Twins range financially. He doesn't throw all that hard and seems to have a hard time not dropping off during a full season. Not sure what his Market value will be but I assume in range for the Twins if they want him back and he wants to stay with the Twins. Gray is a wild card for me. If he performs well again this year I think he is the kind of pitcher that could get a three year deal with a fairly high AAV. He is no ace but he appears to be a consistent performer that could bolster any teams rotation. He might be worth the QO hard to say but I think it will be tough for the Twins to sign him. If Mahle stays healthy and pitches a pretty normal season for him I can't see the Twins retaining him. He is young enough for a 5 to 6 year deal at signicant AAV (i.e. Jose Berrios). If the shoulder issue pops up then maybe the Twins have a chance but if there are injury concerns then why go after him? The Twins don't like long contracts for pitchers. I don't know that any of these guys other than Mahle would get a long contract so I think they could extend the other two if they want to invest the money there. They broke the mold somewhat with Correa. Maybe they find a way to hang onto one or two of these guys. I think it will depend on how well they pitch this year before we will know.
  15. Dman
    I am worried about Lopez as we paid a high price to get him IMO. The price paid wasn't for an average reliver it was supposed to be for a high leverage arm. Still he was a bit unlucky with the Twins as I saw a fair number of slow rollers go for base hits. He had guys beating it into the ground at times and still managing to get on base. That being said he also gave up a lot of hard contact with the Twins as well. I don't know what the issues were or are but this pen is built with him in mind as a high leverage reliever. We need him to be the guy we think he was and he should have the pitches to be that guy. Haven't seen him much this spring but hoping he returns to all star form as we are going to need him to be successful.
  16. Dman
    I am with you on Castro. I know he might be fools gold this spring but defensively he is solid. He is a switch hitter and only 25 according to MLB.com. He also has 4 years of MLB experience so ahead of guys like Helman and Prato in the experience department. A break through with the bat and he looks really good as a utility player. Still his spring is deceiving to some degree as he is K'ing at a 40% rate right now granted he generally K's at a 20 to 25% rate and his BABIP is a sky high at .666 this spring. So regression is coming. In the past his batting average has been in the lower 200's but if he can find a little bit more power and just a bit more contact his OPS will rise and he sure looks like a major league option to me. Also would be nice if he finds his stroke to get some payback for Tigers stealing Baddoo. It is all still up in the air but I am hoping Castro can improve at the plate and give the Twins a boost.
  17. Dman
    It is a real tough start for Jordan and I am guessing he won't be in peak shape to start with the broken jaw issue. Still I am hoping that the knee issue is gone and he can get back to who he was. Might be a rough start for him but am hoping as the year goes on he shows some level of dominance. It might not be now or never for him but he is taking up a 40 man spot so another really bad year and the Twins likely free that spot for someone else who can or will make a difference. Not much room for unproductive spots on the 40 man.
  18. Dman
    I was thinking the same thing. An older player with some MLB experience but hasn't quite had the bat to make it. Plays all three spots and if he can get the bat working maybe he gets a chance. But just like last year he is pretty much a break glass in emergency type of player at this point.
  19. Dman
    We have very little info to go on so I am interested to see how well he does at 3rd this year. He looks in better shape and the bat has been really good this spring. I think he can be a solid defender at third but as noted with Lewis and Lee coming up I am not sure how long they will keep him there. If he keeps himself in good shape he should be able to be rotated to 3rd in the future it just seems given the future options he wouldn't be the primary option there. Just have to wait and see how he does. As mentioned above lot's of guys look rough at 3rd to start and get significantly better with time. I hope he does well as it just allows the team to mix and match more effectively.
  20. Dman
    Yeah I see the same thing per MLB.com below. One bad first spring training outing shouldn't be a precursor for doom but I get that none of us trust him when he is in. Always feels like a HR is just the next pitch away. I certainly get PTSD when he comes in but still willing to give him most of spring to figure things out. Several pitchers have righted the ship so to speak this spring after tough outings.
  21. Dman
    If they could get a Clase type deal I would do it. Yeah arms can fall off at any time but if he works out the savings would be substantial. Bullpen arms like that just don't come around that often. He throws 102 easy and all his pitches have good movement so I don't see much regression there. Only issue would be if his arm was damaged beyond repair for some reason. If they can get an extra year or two with an extension that could be a real difference maker down the road.
  22. Dman
    Agreed, I think this move was primarily because Celestino is injured. AAA depth is likely Contreras, Wallner, Garlick and Larnach if he gets squeezed out. So probably best to have one more guy that can play multiple outfield spots just in case. There is not much outfield depth at AA to move up. Keirsey probably starts there as it is probably the best place to jump start his bat. It might stink a bit for Prato as he can play Left for sure but he should have plenty of chances in the infield as well. Probably a good move to shore up depth.
  23. Dman
    I kind of agree with you and @chpettit19. They never have really used long relief well since Baldelli has been the manager IMO so kind of surprised it is something they are prioritizing this year. As @chpettit19mentioned what do they mean by long relief. If it is a guy just sitting around waiting for a blowout I don't see that as a very effective use of a bullpen arm. They don't want to do a six man rotation so why not piggy back Ober or Winder with a starter and save most of the pen for an entire game. It would give consistency to the pitcher in the long relief\piggy back role and give most of the pen the day off. If there is a blowout then use your two middle relief guys for a couple innings to cover and they get rested up with the piggy back game. A blowout is generally a loss no matter what but if the Twins have 6 effective pitchers why not use all 6 until an injury says you can't? Put your best arms on the 26 man to me that means Ober and if Ober they need to keep him stretched out. I think Maeda would be a good piggy back guy as he likely needs some pitch count protection coming back from TJ. If the Twins are just looking at a 2 inning guy from time to time then I guess the guys above qualify but I guess I don't completely understand the value of a guy that would only go two innings versus 1? You don't gain all that much IMO and he likely will need more rest before returning as well. I guess if one of our pitchers happens to go 6 innings and the two inning guy comes in then just need one more arm to close? Is that the theory? At any rate not sure how this all works but as I said earlier the best arms should be used on the 26 man not at AAA.
  24. Dman
    I want to be a Dobnak fan as I love the guy but the numbers this spring don't give me confidence. Yes he has a shiny 2.70 ERA this spring but his K9 still is subpar and his WHIP of 1.65 is terrible. Way too much traffic on the bases when he is pitching. He has always needed an out pitch and I don't think he has one yet. He should go to AAA and work on the out pitch. His command has looked bad at times too. I think he is going to need more time but we will see how things go the rest of this spring. I don't trust Sands either. Way too many HR balls and hard contact when he is pitching. He has some really nice looking pitches but the lack of consistency is just a killer IMO. De Leon has looked OK this spring. He seemed a bit wild the first two times I saw him but right now he has a good K rate and WHIP. While I don't like any of these options if I had to choose it would be De Leon right now for me. Unfortunately he is not on the 40 man so unlikely to make it. Hopefully we get to see Winder soon and he looks good otherwise I am in the camp to use Ober there and piggy back off of someone's start to keep his innings up but his arm seems to good to waste at AAA to me.
  25. Dman
    Most players picked at 19 never make a top 30 list let alone the Majors. Given his profile coming in I thought he would be a reliever only prospect. Very surprised at how well he is doing to this point but as noted by others effectively wild only works for so long. I will say his K rate is astounding so he has put away pitches and the fact that his K rate actually improved as a starter is somewhat mind boggling to me. Very, very excited about what Nowlin's lefty arm could become. If he can refine the command and control he looks like a viable lefty starter to me. Hoping to see improvement in the WHIP without losing too much on that K rate. Could be one heck of a pick at 19 for the Twins if he puts it all together.
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