Dman

First let me say I love your optimism and it certainly beats pessimism. When I first found TD I didn't really know how to follow prospects and I dreamed that pretty much every prospect in the top 30 was going to make it. It took a while but reality eventually settles in. Most of these guys don't make it. Some get too injured to keep going, some hang onto the fringes of rosters but eventually bite the dust and then yes some make it as OK to average players and a few make it as Stars or super stars. Here is a good little article that gives a few stats on top 100 players. Below is a screen shot of the Twins top 10 prospects in 2018. There were times we were talking about Romero and Gonsalves being mid rotation starters. Javier as the Twins Shortstop of the future. Rooker and Diaz as light tower power bats looking to bat cleanup at the MLB level. As you can see all of these players are still out their on the fringes but the outlook is grim. Lewis has yet to play a full heathy season since 2019. Gordon isn't considered a starter yet but is a super utility player. Kirilloff hasn't been healthy in several years now. Graterol was traded and is a good reliever but I don't know about great. Enlow isn't even on the 40 man anymore. There is still some hope left in this list especially Lewis but most of these players just were not the difference makers we all hoped they would be. To me that is the reality of prospects. It is really, really hard to become an MLB player. Those that do are special IMO. Still given my fairly brief glimpse into the prospect world hope and reality can collide quickly and the outcome generally is another player that didn't make it. Still it is fun to dream on these guys and how they might help the Twins. It is why we come to TD to talk about and share what we think players might become. Still the element of reality is far to few work out the way we hoped. FWIW Arraez was ranked 23rd on this list.

Yeah MLB.com had him around 25 on their list so late 1st round. He was hard to evaluate in his draft year for the same concerns being brought up on the board. He just hadn't pitched competitively in a long time so with less of a track record you take on more risk. Teams let him slide until the Twins grabbed him. I think Horton had been injured as well (rated 24) but pitched well down the stretch and the Cubs grabbed him at number 7. He was more of a power pitcher with a plus fastball and three pretty legit pitches IIRC. I think the concern on Prielipp beyond not throwing competitively was teams hadn't seen a big time fastball and that he might only be a two pitch pitcher so possibly more likely a reliever than starter. With so little track record it is impossible to know how this goes but we should have a better idea at the end of this year. He was elite his first year in a tough conference so he has the stuff IMO but like with most of these guys can the arm hold up to starting? We will see.

So far he Prielipp is living on past results. He has looked elite in the past but we have no idea what his arm can take at this point. I am hoping that the Twins found a top of the rotation lefty with tons of bat missing stuff. Still he could just be a two pitch pticher that ends up in the pen. We should know more after his first year but it will likely take up to his second year to know if the gamble paid off. If the arm holds up I have to believe he can be a difference maker but will have to wait and see. I liked the pick when they made it and still like it now. I believe he will be back just have to wait and see how it all plays out.

I still think it wouldn't be a bad idea to bring in a veteran arm, but lots of people on the board see room for the young guys to make noise if given opportunity. It is a tough call, but for me I would like a proven lefty to fall back on. Not sure how long Thielbar can work that magic and Moran was really good when up but the WHIP concerns me. They traded away Sisk so there isn't much for lefties left. Still given what we know about this FO and given they seem to have publicly said they are not likely adding to the pen adding a reliever seems unlikely IMO. Given the cost mentioned it seems even less likely. I think in the end I am fine either way they go, but do prefer paying a vet who has proven they can get it done.

I don't necessarily disagree as Salas's ratings appear to be a bit all over the place right now. MLB.com had him as the Marlins number 5 prospect but now has him as the Twins number 13 prospect. So essentially in the range you suggested. According to this Fangraphs article they have him rated 3rd in the Twins system (Per The Board, "Salas is now the Twins’ third-best prospect"). Some have him in the top 100 others don't. He is tough to gauge after those rough High A numbers. Still for perspective Rodriguez hasn't even made it to High A ball yet and he and Salas are around the same age. I definitely think Salas needs more polish to shine, but I still think he deserves top 10 status given his tools potential.

Salas should be OK on the defensive side as he was drafted as a shortstop and he doesn't look too bad there at least right now IMO. Some think he can stay there some seem to think he is more likely to end up at 2nd or 3rd. At any rate he should be an average to plus fielder no matter the position. I don't think defense is the worry point for him. His value like a lot of players is tied to his bat. He looked really good at A ball for a 19 year old and he did get promoted to High A but the batting numbers there don't look quite so nice. Still he is only 19 and two years younger than the average player there and he held his own for the most part. His slugging was down in High A and yet his body looks big and strong for a 19 year old. He looks like he can be projected to hit for more power. This coming year is a big one for Salas. If he masters High A and adds to his power he has star upside IMO. He still has a lot to prove but he does have time on his side right now. I am hoping for a breakout with the bat as that would put him on the fast path to MLB.

I think you make a good point. We need to go back in time a little bit to understand the Urshela decision. At the time Arraez was penciled in at first as his trade was not a "fait accompli" so if kept, it would have been some type of time share between. Arraez, Kirilloff and Miranda at first. Far from ideal. Also the Twins wanted a viable shortstop backup and Urshela for all intents and purposes was a third baseman only. Miranda seemed blocked in that situation and his bat was valuable in the lineup. They removed Urshela for the swiss army knife Farmer and things looked better. In the end they did move Arraez as well and I guess that is where we come back to the Urshela controversy to some degree but it all looked very different before the Arraez trade IMO. There really wasn't room for Urshela if the Twins were keeping Arraez. Farmer also filled more defensive holes which was needed as well. I like Urshela and he is a very good player. I wish the Twins could have found a better return but he didn't fit this roster all that well IMO.

Yep I agree with you. I don't think he has great fastball velocity and I know literally nothing about his secondary stuff. I just thought it a bit odd that the numbers at the exact same level and same time could be so close and they are rated vastly different. If Seth reads this maybe he can fill me in. Thanks for the well thought out response!

It doesn't look like Miranda will be an elite defender at third but his arm can't be any worse than Arraez's was. Last I checked he checked in with a average (50) arm on MLB.com. He is a 40 runner so range is an issue though lot's of stuff hit to third comes in hard. Still hopefully the slimmed down version is ready for those slow rollers as well. I don't know how he will do at third but we are going to find out. I guess I still don't see the angst about Urshela. Farmer replaced him and he can play third if Miranda can't hold it down. Nice thing about Farmer over Urshela is he can hold down short, 2nd, catcher and left if needed. Urshela can't do that. Might lose a bit on the bat with Farmer but if he is platooned properly he can make up for some of that. Given the roster and the guys coming up Urshela didn't seem like a great fit to me and the Twins must have felt the same way. They might not be ready this year but Lewis and Lee are hopefully not that far away and could take over at third if Miranda can't hold it down. The Twins obviously feel Miranda can get the job done or else he would be at 1st base already likely in some sort of platoon role with Kirilloff between 1st and DH. They must not like that idea thus they are playing him at third. Like I said I don't see him as a plus defender at third but I think he can hold his own there and if the bat plays like last year or better he is fine there IMO. I don't think playing MIranda at third is a misstep but with so little to go on will have to wait and see.

Excellent article! Thanks!

I love Varland and what he has done. Absolutely amazing story and just a great man giving it everything he has to get this far. NIck that was a brutally honest assessment of Varland and I agree with it. Just for reference below are last years 2022 AA numbers for Louie Varland and Kody Funderburk. Their numbers are very similar with Varland having a better K rate and WHIP and Funderburk with the better ERA and FIP. One of these pitchers is rated in Minnesota's top 10 the other isn't even mentioned in the top thirty. What does that tell me? One of these players is either overrated or underrated. I am rooting hard for Varland even if he is a 5th starter as we need controllable pitchers that can take the mound every turn and provide Quality work. Here's hoping Louie is a Twin and in the rotation for a good long time.

He is pretty under rated. I know I don't always appreciate him as much as I should. Gonna be an interesting year this year to see how the players behind him do. Twins might need Polo one more year after this one but will have to wait and see. The Guardian's playbook would have him traded while he can return something of value. Have to wait and see how the Twins play it.

That first pic looks like a more open stance and with the bat close that looks like a good short to the ball all fields approach to my amateur eye. The second looks just a little more closed but not that much different to me. I can't say I have ever seen the stance in the third picture. It almost looks like he is cocking that foot back to make sure his hips gain some whip and the bat is further back so it seems like that would be more geared toward more power but again I am not a professional so just my personal questioning observations. Maybe we will see more power out of Martin in the future but to this point he has been more of an all fields slap hitter with a good eye at the plate. He hasn't cracked .400 slugging in full season ball yet but a power breakout would be nice. Still I am fine if he gets on base at his fairly normal .400 clip as well. We have seen how valuable that can be as well.

He could be a sort of Arraez type player with speed. A tough out who can take walks and makes contact as he only struck out at a 13% Clip. For teams looking for contact hitters along with working counts he is rock solid there. He also has been able to steal bases so his speed plays as well. He needs a good year at the plate as his value is now tied up in OBP IMO. Still we all know what a catalyst Arraez could be and while the current trend is power we are starting to see cracks in that line of thinking as contact seems to be making a comeback. He is a nice piece of the puzzle if he can put things together and just excel at what he does well which is get on base.

I was hoping for the Twins to double down on pitching with that pick but they went with a bat they all really liked. They saw that he could sell out for power when he picked his spots and he already had good contact skills and I think those are players they like to work with. They have to be betting on his hit tool to make this pick work. In time he might be a player that keeps his walks and K's pretty even and if he does tack on power to his solid contact skills I think he could be a solid MLB second baseman. That is a lot of hopeful projection on my part but that had to be the plan when they picked him.

If the Twins were keeping Kepler I can't see myself defending them grabbing Gallo. Most of the baseball world didn't understand that move without the Twins moving a left handed outfield bat. I guess I don't completely understand comparing Gallo to Urshela though. It should be a Gallo, Kepler comparison straight up if you ask me. I thought Urshela's replacement was Farmer who could actually play shortstop as well as other positions. he was a right handed bat just like Urshela with more positional flexibility at a cheaper cost. Gallo had nothing to do with that move IMO. While it might be nice to have Gio's right handed bat the cost seems high for a likely 1st base DH type player with Farmer likely getting first dibs in the field. I didn't care for the return the Twins got but I thought it was a solid decision to move on from Urshela if they used the extra money wisely. I don't know if signing Gallo would be considered using it wisely but obviously the FO thinks so.

I am already sold on Miller's defense so he has a utility role pretty much wrapped up with just slight improvement with the bat. Still he graded out with plus contact skills at the plate in the draft and while a 23% K rate isn't bad you would think a guy with plus bat to ball skills would be in the mid teens for K rate. He was only 19 and put on a show the first month with an .800 OPS so he can do it. I kind of wonder if they had him working on increasing his bat speed or something to gain more power and if that affected him or maybe he just got worn down. Hard to say but he will still only be 20 next year and I am bullish on his bat coming around. I got to see Festa late in the season at Beloit and he didn't look particularly dominant that night and yet when you look at the box score he did pretty well. I am not sold that thin body can hold up to rotation work but will have to wait and see. He is going to need more polish to make it up the levels IMO. Still you can't argue with the fastball speed and solid slider or his results from last year.. Another year should tell us whether pen or rotation I would think. I hate to get too worked up over DSL numbers as when most of those guys get to the FCL they really struggle. Still Mercedes offers a possible plus hit tool, plus power and plus run skills. If the arm improves maybe a plus arm so a borderline 5 tool player. That would be a nice get if he turns out. If he keeps somewhat similar numbers at the FCL then the Twins did well to find him as he will be a fast mover. Have to wait and see it could take a year or two to adjust to the better pitching he will face. I have been low man on Wallner for a long time. The K rate was too much for me to take. He is finally starting to make a believer out of me. He has been taking his walks and it seems that has helped him tremendously. He has brought his K rate down to 30% still not ideal but better than it has been and OPS up. He was an absolute monster at AA even after a horrid start. AAA showed there is still more work to be done. While his .840 OPS there was very good if he wants to make the jump to MLB it will need to better. Main thing to me is that he is improving and can be a viable MLB player whereas before I was getting concerned he might be a bust. Out of this list I like the two guys the farthest away. I think that if those bat to ball skills return Miller could be a standout player. I am hoping he come out hot and keeps it going this coming season. If Mercedes hangs around those DSL numbers he probably is going to be a star player. Even if he fails some at the FCL he is young for the level and wouldn't be a bust just maybe not quite ready yet. This is a good solid list but all these players have something to prove next year.

I still remember the article they put out on Buxton when he was the minors. Man that one had me in stiches and even though satire it seemed real enough and the comments were wild on that one. I can't remember what it said but something about coaches wanting Buxton to stop at second instead of taking third on doubles because it wasn't fair to the other team or some such thing. That had to be one of his best all time.

I would also add that I would like to see what he can do as a starter coming back. In 2020 wasn't he essentially in the conversation for the Cy Young award? That was a short year and I get we all are worried about his arm holding up but it seems prudent to see if he is the same or close to same starting pitcher as 2020 which would be better than Ober IMO. They both have questions about how many innings they can throw but I would give Maeda the chance first if it were me.

Our best two potential home grown starters Ober and Winder both seem like they might not be able to hold up to a starters load which is disappointing. On the other hand moving them could really strengthen the pen. Still not sure where our starters are going to come from then. Varland seems viable maybe SWR but he has been another arm that seems to wear down as the season goes on. From there you are hoping Balazovich and or Enlow can bounce back otherwise you are waiting on Festa and Raya with Prielipp a bit further behind yet. Hopefully things break the Twins way for starters at some point. They should start with 2023 draft by drafting more pitchers than position players. Looks like we have some pretty cool options for the pen if they can perform there.

I am not as sold on Urbina especially since there is talk that might need to move out of centerfield. The bat has been ok but no real breakout. Any chance you can fill me in on what you see to rank him at 15?

Some of the guys in the top 10 would have gotten knocked down here if we still had Petty, Povich, Hajjar, Steer and CES. The Twins needed\wanted MLB players so there went part of the farm. Seems like the system is still ranked around the middle of the pack so not too bad. We are going to need to have players step up out of no where to get back into the top 10 though. Hopefully this 2023 draft ends up a good one.

I don't necessarily disagree but I think Mike is right. Since no other team wanted to make it worth their while the Twins need to make sure Kirilloff is truly healthy. That Larnach is the same Larnach after coming back from injury. If Gallo doesn't rebound they have another player to use in right. Still lot's of things can happen between now and the start of the season. Guys go down in Spring training all the time. Kepler might look really good this spring and some other team might feel they really, really need a player like that. The Twins traded Rogers just before the season the same could happen with Kepler if the Twins decide Kirilloff, and Larnach look ready to go. In your worst case scenario if Kepler doesn't turn things around, then around June, Larnach or someone else will replace him anyway. At that point once his projection is a known quantity they can try and trade him for a bucket of balls or bench him. I think there is still time for the Twins to get a deal done before the season starts but a team would need to be willing to pay the price the Twins feel he should be valued at. If not I think they are doing the prudent thing especially given what happened last year. Roll with the extra depth and see how things shake out. It is likely 3 months of development time lost max.

I remember looking at the DSL box scores last year and thinking I don't remember guys hitting this many home runs there. I believe others echoed the same thing. I can't remember a guy with that kind of power right out of the gates in the DSL. Even Sano didn't start hitting them that often until he got to Elizabethton. I don't know how much projection is left but that is already really good power. While he had good plate discipline in the DSL I still think the FCL will set him back as the pitching is much better there. If he masters the zone though this kid could be a super star. Probably right there with Emmanial Rodriguez except from the other side of the plate. If those guys turn out having righty, lefty mashers would be really fun to watch. I think Nick is right when the Twins looked at Schobel they saw Brian Dozier. Likely a plus defensive second baseman with enough pull side power to make him dangerous. We will see if he can pull it off. Not horrible numbers for his first time out but I am hoping for bigger things next year. The guy I am rooting for the most in this list is Henriquez. If he can keep that fastball around 98 coming out of the pen with his two slightly plus secondary's he could be an 8th inning, 9th inning stopper reliever. He could really solidify the pen if he can stop giving up the HR balls. The Twins are finally getting some high octane bullpen arms and I think that could really help them become a shut down pen. Hopefully Henriquez finds a Santana like debut this year. Have to believe Jordon can come back and be better. Have no idea what happened last year but it does happen. Hopefully he takes the offseason to rework his mind and body to gain the control he needs to be successful. Canterino could be another big arm in this pen once he gets going again. Control will be key for him as well but really not much to say until next year.

Twins have room to keep him so not a huge deal other than the money at this point. I agree with others that there is no reason to trade him for a Michael Taylor return if that is all that is out there. He has more value than than that to his current team. If his offense returns that value could increase dramatically as well. Also agree that if he performs at an average level he should bring more back at the deadline than right now. If there is room why not just wait unless blown away by an offer?