Dman

Yeah they seem to like trading for pitchers better than developing them. I didn't like the Schobel pick last year and all he has done is lead his league in HR's and battle for 2nd or third in OPS against Rosario. He is doing better than some of the 1st round picks so yeah Keaschall likely has similar traits and was unlikely to make it to their third round pick so I get why they grabbed him there. Still I feel somewhat justified in wanting Clemmy as that is who Cleveland took with their pick and they like to develop pitching. Pitching is also a system need and to find hard throwers you usually have to draft them early. I just think pitching would have been a better use of their draft capital there. They have a lot more info than me and they disagreed.

It’s a solid pick just not something the system needs IMO. good approach, good speed, is figuring out how to go for power. Just not the pick I was hoping for. Would have rather seen them go pitcher. Depth in the minors there is not good. It looks like another balanced draft but they need more arms.

Yeah I bet you are right. Might not be a ton of savings as he went not too far from where Law had him but that might play into it.

Not a fan of that pick but every team has their own board. Would have preferred Clemmy a hard throwing lefty which they don’t have in the system. They have plenty of second base types. Seems like a reach for something they don’t need. They need more pitching. Oh well at least I really liked the firs two picks. EDIT: yeah reading more at least he has speed and a really good plate approach I just think more investment in pitching would have been a better use of resources.

Could the Twins go power lefty picking Clemmy? Or going bat this time?

Twins were connected to White but he has had trouble throwing. Strikes so a bit more of a wild card if you ask me. Soto a bit unproven but likely can hit 96 to 98 and reach back for triple digits. I think they made the right choice. Several mocks I saw had Soto being taken in the 20’s. Twins might have been surprised he was still there. if White can learn to control his stuff and maintain the velocity he is the better pick as a hard throwing lefty. He is young but pitchers that can’t control their stuff has been something we have seen can be hard to correct for any team. I think Soto was the right choice there but that is just with the little info I have.

Really love the pick! A ton of potential and still very young. The Twins have been good at developing pitchers and he already has good velocity. Very excited to have a hard thrower with top of the rotation potential in the system. just two really, really good picks. Hoping they get another good one in the second round. Still good talent through the top 50 and then a slight drop off but good top 100 as well.

Dream draft for me so far I would have done both picks. Wonder if they will have to go over slot there? Loving what they have done so far. Keep it rolling Twins!!

Hoping for Soto or White but will have to wait and see

Wondering when the run on high school pitching gets started. I thought Cleveland would go pitcher for sure. They grabbed a catcher slated to go to the Twins instead.

Have to say the rumors had me doubting Jenkins would be the pick. I guess with it being Boras no chance at any under slot savings. I like the pick as matches pretty much everything the Twins look for in a player. He might not be a 70 runner but he has plenty of speed to be effective in right or left. Can’t wait to see how he does to start and next year I hope he looks good enough to start in A ball.

Boston got good value there. Teel was 6 on a fair number of boards and easy top ten. Not sure I love his swing but it worked well this year.

Kind of hoping the Twins double down on high school players. More risk but they seem to have higher potential as impact players. They have a lot of guys at AAA don,t have to have fast movers. Would be nice to build another big wave of young players.

Kind of glad Detroit didn’t, got Langford as I would hate to have to face him all the time. Still I wanted Clark and he looks like a better over all fit for them. The top four were no brainers and in reality probably the top five.

I liked that the Pirates went with Skenes. Tough to pass on Crews but getting a possible generational pitcher could be something that could push them past the first round of the playoffs.

A long hard fall for Teel. I guess he got over hyped or someone is going major over slot.

Miranda looked like an elite bat last year. He had crushed AAA pitching even more than Steer when he was at that level. No one I can remember wanted to trade Miranda instead of Steer at the deadline. Even Correa was against the idea because we all thought Miranda was going to have a special bat. Hindsight is 20/20. This whole offense has fallen off a cliff this year. Has to a be problem with approach IMO and Miranda has been pretty much unplayable all year as well. Still he has a contact bat and he has been successful before I think we just need to give it time and hopefully he comes out an even better player than before.

I think I have done too much reading about this draft as my mind is all over the place with options and ideas about how to handle things at number 5. The Twins draft team has looked at all the players collected all the data so I have to believe their plan is locked in if the top 4 are taken or if someone goes offboard. A couple of things I wonder. How worrisome is the hip impingement issue with Jenkins? The kid looks like a tank and has a plus hit tool and plus power. If he is for real he looks like an all star player to me. Still Gonzalez's profile isn't all that different with 55 hit and power rating along with a strong arm and he has proven statistical performance at a higher level than Jenkins. So I can see what the Twins are thinking there especially if they can get a discount and scoop up either some better players or more top 100 players in a deep draft. Still the back and forth in my mind goes that Jenkins is just in High School his full potential unknown and if he is an elite bat odds are he gets to MLB at a younger age and is a plus defender in right field and probable all star. It feels like Gonzalez has a more limited ceiling to me but maybe I don't\can't see what the Twins see. Maybe he does have all star potential but it doesn't seem as likely as it does with Jenkins. Finally there is high risk with high school players. Jenkins could be at his full potential now, have issues with his hips or not be able to handle pro pitching. His floor is far, far lower than Gonzalez. So again I don't know my brain just kind of hurts thinking about the various scenario's that appear to be in play. If the Twins are unsure on Jenkins I wonder what it is they don't like about Teel as he is slated to go right after Jenkins in a lot of mocks and has really good offense potential in a league where very few teams get much at the catcher position. They wouldn't get the discount they would with Gonzalez but if they don't like Jenkins he seems like the next player up IMO. All I can say is I have no ide what the Twins are gonna do I just hope they find some star players as they need some to compete with the rest of the league.

If they could manage getting Meyer who has star potential I could be OK with that but the numbers don't add up real well unless Gonzalez gives them a a cool 2M discount as Meyer is projected in some mocks to go around pick 8 which is 5.5M range and the sup 1 pick is 2.4 plus 2M is still only 4.4M. That is the high point for him to be taken though. If he were to tumble into the mid teens then that number drops to about 4.4M so I guess it just depends on where the agent thinks the player will go before cutting a deal. If that scenario played out you could argue the Twins got two top 10 players in the draft for their 1st round and 1st round supplemental pick. Considering they were picking at 13 before the lottery that seems like a pretty good outcome. Still not sure I love the ceiling for Gonzalez as a 1st round pick. I guess I have a bias toward slower players going high in the draft. He has above hit/power/arm tools and profiles as an average fielder at short. He is only a 40 runner though. There are a lot of things I think are important to success for hitters at the MLB level and not swinging at pitches out of the zone is a big one. He has more walks than K's so that bodes well. Contact skills would be next because without them you get a guy who K's too much and that makes it hard to be successful as you move up. While not necessary if you have the first two things having some power does round out the profile so if they have that it helps. I think Gonzalez has those things so I can see how he fits their model. I think the only thing I don't like about him is the speed and that he can't be a 5 tool player. Still he has been dropping down boards so I can't be the only one who feels like that as he could go anywhere from pick 10 to late 20's. Still if they pick up Meyer with the savings on Gonzalez that seems like a win to me. I mean they could take Meyer at 5 as he is slated to go anywhere from 6 to the mid 20's. It seems to depend on a teams appetite for risk with Teenage pitchers which seem to be highly volatile. Meyer throws hard and has the slider the Twins love and if the change works should be a pretty fast mover. I like the upside of that pick. Lot's of risk but high reward if it works out. If the Twins pick Gonzalez and miss out on one of the higher end pitchers I guess I like that pick even less but I do trust the Twins scouting department as I always think they are reaching and they end up with good players every year.

Rosario busted out of his slump and then Schobel was the only one not to get on base. Just goes to show sometime they fall sometimes they don't. Raya was looking good until the 3rd where he never got another out. He has really had issue getting through the order a second time. Hopefully he refines those pitches to stay away from barrels and also finds his control. He can get K's just needs to be more consistent with his stuff. Man Noah Miller looks good at short. His throws are just a thing of beauty strong, straight and under control. His bat looked good yesterday as well. If he finds his bat the Twins will have a really good shortstop in the system again. Almost half the top 30 prospects are at High A. It might be time to move some of them up.

I agree he has moved into MLB top 30 for the Twins with the graduation of Lewis and Jullian, Sounds like a velocity spike along with late movement has changed his ceiling. Kind of feels like what happened to Winder but lets hope a little better outcome. Looks like the Twins found some good late risers again. AA is the true test for pitcher's though. Won't know what we have until they get there.

There is just so much talent in the first 50 picks it seems like you just wait for what's there take your pick and it seems like you can't go wrong. There is good talent through the top 100 as well. Every team is going to have a good draft so you don't want to get this one wrong. If you play it right the Twins should get three to four impact players. Really enjoyed you pointing out the rising and falling prospects! Really great work. This will be a great guide for draft day as well.

Fangraphs feels the same way you do as they have Gonzalez rated #35. This is some of what they have to say about him. "His level of statistical performance is rare and Gonzalez will barely be 21 on draft day, but his swing has a huge hole at the top of the zone that I fear will be exploited in pro ball. He hasn't become meaningfully stronger during his time at Ole Miss (in fact, he's regressed a little bit as an athlete) and often needs to wind up his whole body to swing hard, making mechanical concessions in the process. It's a more extreme version of the issues JJ Bleday would eventually be exposed by, and Bleday's SEC performance was also a red herring. There's volatility here. Gonzalez has some premium skills and baseball feel, and he was an exceptional college performer, but he doesn't pass the eye test. He's arguably young enough to improve upon his athleticism and strength as a pro, and I think he needs to do so if he's going to be more than a utilityman." Not saying they are 100% right about him but there are plenty of red flags in his profile. Is this a guy (possible utility player) you take at number 5 overall?. I will say his eye at the plate seems to be something the Twins really value and I guess you can see why given how the MLB team has performed. It is possible they can get him to more power as well but if he can't hit balls at the top of the zone that is going to be a serious problem.

I think you can add Steer to the list he has an .800 OPS for the Reds. Brent Rooker has an 800 OPS and is in the All Star game granted he has fallen like a stone since the beginning of the season still it is success at the MLB level. Jullien looks like a keeper. Larnach still a work in progress but would like to see him for one full healthy season to see what he has. Wallner they haven't really given him his shot yet and CES looks like on of the best bats at AAA. granted that might not translate but he has been exceptional at every level so far. Maybe no super stars in that group although Lewis has a chance to get there if he can stay healthy but he was a high school pick. I think some more college bats are going to get there ( Lee, Schobel Cossetti). Still High school and INTL picks seem to have had the highest upside but also the greatest risk for failure. I will say I agree with you that they lacked super high impact players and tend to cultivate good solid players and agree they need to find some elite players. That is hopefully what you find at pick number 5.

There is a fair bit of buzz going around about the Twins grabbing Gonzalez but he has been dropping in mocks like crazy. I know he is a model darling and started the year as the number 3 pick but Several mocks have him in the lower 20's now. If they want him that bad why not take one of the top 5 and see if they will give them at least a $500,000 discount and use some of the the money from their second round pick to get Gonzalez with the Supplemental 1st round pick with money in the 20's range? (EDIT: Latest mocks have him in the high teens now with some top 10 likely no way to get him with Sup 1st) If he goes to early to pull that off then just use the extra money for other players down the line or grab a comparable player that dropped. Not sure why they have to be so fixated on Gonzalez unless they do feel he is an under appreciated elite bat. If they can't get one of the top five to take a slight discount how about grabbing Teel or Lowder and trying the same thing. I just think Gonzalez might fall far enough to do that. and if not there are lot's good hitters and pitchers in the top 50 picks this year. I like the bat and player but he runs almost as slow as a catcher rated at 40. When picking top 5 shouldn't you try and get players that can hit and run and as close to 5 tool as possible? It just feels a bit empty to go that route but I get that it would be nice to have that extra 1.5M to grab a first round pitcher in the 3rd round. Maybe it all works out well but if they end up passing on a super star high school player they are gonna have a tough time explaining how they messed up at pick number 5. I will say that whatever model they are using it seems to work pretty well for college hitters. last years class of Lee, Schobel, Ross, Ortega, Cossetti and you could argue the older Schuffield all look like quality bats. The year before they drafted CES late and he turned out well too. So they must be dong something right. The thing is they can't seem to find guys with speed which as we have seen this year can be very helpful as well in certain situations. I know so little my opinion likely doesn't matter but I just hope they are gonna find some stars in this deep draft because we need some.