Dman

I think they do need to move an outfielder and I wish they could move Gallo. Early in it looked like it was going to be a decent signing but I think I would rather have Nick Gordon in the box than the Gallo that is showing up these days. If the Twins plan to keep just 18 position players on the 40 man then someone needs to be moved before Gordon comes back to make room. They still technically have one 40 man spot open when they move De Leon to the 60 day IL. I assume that spot will be used by Kuechel or another reliever they pick up. Depending on Stewarts status he could be moved to the 60 IL as well but if that is the case they would need a replacement arm for him as well. They could try to run Sands or Winder through waivers and see if they make it or not but odds are Oakland or KC would grab them so it would be risky. With Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, Wallner, Gordon they have too many lefty outfielders which is why many on this board questioned the Gallo signing to begin with. They can still carry them all if they want to but removing one would be a good thing IMO. Gordon and Gallo would be the most expendable IMO. They still lead the division so can't imagine they trade Kepler as they can just wait until the end of the season to do that and they might need his defense and his bat is heating up. Trading Wallner or Larnach seems like it might end up like trading Steer and CES. They are young and cheap and should produce as well as Gallo or Kepler at the plate so it would take a monster deal to move one of them IMO. When it is time for Gordon to come off the 60 day if Gallo isn't gone IMO they should consider bumping Gallo off the roster. That is my two cents.

Yeah I agree with you. I am not aware of any of those late picked high schoolers turning into anything but there must be a few that have. Still it must be small because it isn't a strategy a lot of team use IMO. When the draft 30 or 40 rounds the Twins always took several high schoolers late and none of them signed. It fun to hold out hope but it doesn't happen often and works out even less as I would think there would be more stuff out there about those types of picks and I don't remember seeing anything at all on one of those working out.

As others have said it could be the medicals it just seems a bit unlikely as they essentially knew about the hip impingment issue and it doesn't look like it has affected Jenkins in any way. Maybe there is more there after having the physical? I agree both ways it doesn't seem like holding this up over a few hundred thousand dollars should make much of a difference since the money is there. Still Jenkins was projected to go where he went and I have to believe the Twins are offering slot as they are setup to offer that. Like you said likely more to this than meets the eye and there have been virtually no rumors about this all they way through to today. It is just that given Boras's history it seems likely something on his end. I think slot is a fair del and if the Twins aren't offering that then I can see why Boras would be working to get his client to that level. If he is just looking to add a little more money I think he should just take the deal if offered slot. It is a good one with life changing money for his client.

Just based on reading articles Oakland didn't want to go over slot. Cinci had the money with extra picks so they could have gone over. Would Oakland have been willing to go up $500,000 just to get him to 7M? then would have to go beyond that if he wants to have the Twins pay more than slot. I am just saying I don't see that he has much of an argument to go over slot. The Twins are set up to give him slot and generally don't play games going under. Maybe they are squeezing him I have no idea but the odds seem slim that is the holdup. They would need to shave at least $500,000 and possibly more to sign pick 20 so that seems like the longest of long shots to me. Odds are this seems about going over with the Boras logic he could have been a number 1 pick in any other draft.

And yet two of those picks signed for under slot and Jenkins floor was Cincinnati or below. Passing on 7M could be a disaster as we have seen happen to others that don't take deals. Take slot it is a solid deal for your client. Having to sweat out not getting injured and end up getting picked top 4 next year and passing on life changing money for a few dollars. I would fire that agent. Just my opinion though.

Not sure Boras has much leverage for an over slot deal. Jenkins was never seen as top three and he and Clark were a virtual tie for 4th and 5th and the draft let us know who teams preferred and it was Clark. If the Twins didn't grab him at 5 Oakland wasn't going over slot to sign him as they had an under slot deal all setup. Cincinnati might have signed him but they had a good deal lined up as well so no sure thing they would have wanted to go over slot there. he could have fallen way down if the Twins didn't take him. I think Boras should take slot and thank his lucky stars the Twins actually picked him there.

Yeah I think most years they would have left him at High A all year but they needed to move someone up and he has the most experience of any pitcher other than Paredes who doesn't throw real hard and doesn't have the K rate Nowlin does either.

Happy to see the Twins putting some distance from the .500 mark. They were always going to need a run to push forward and now lets hope they have the mojo to sustain a division winning second half. Its a lot more fun to watch when the team is winning games especially the close ones. Felt bad for Maeda the pen just loves to sabotage any possible win when he pitches great. Nice to see him pitch well now the Twins have to find a way to solve Kirby. Seattle has some good pitching it is surprising they aren't doing a bit better themselves. Twins are going to need more wins so hopefully they find a way to take this series and keep things rolling from there.

Love these summaries! Thanks!

The tough part is figuring out what the value back for players would be. If it is meaningful I could see making a deal but so many of the guys we might trade have value on the margins and are not huge difference makers so getting anything of any real value seems difficult. If you can't get anything back that moves the needle then might as well just role with what you have. TBH if they can get value trading any of the guys on one year deals I would do those deals. If some team wants to overpay for MAT I do that deal knowing one of Castro, Celestino, Lewis or Gordon when he comes back can play there. Gallo if any team will take him I wouldn't even care about the return might be it is addition by subtraction. Kepler if the value is there do the deal but with another year left they can wait as well. I am not eager to part with the young bats especially not Wallner because we don't even know what he can do yet at the MLB level and he seems to be as good or better than Gallo anyway. With Gallo likely gone next year and Kepler with one foot out the door it doesn't seem prudent to trade the young lefty bats IMO.

That is what I saw too so they can give him full slot and he fell right about where he was expected to fall so I don't see why Boras would have leverage to get more than slot. Especially since two of the top 5 already signed under slot deals. That leads me to believe something might have popped up in the physical that is making them think twice or want to go under slot to try and sign pick number 20? Not sure but it doesn't make sense that it is taking this long as the money is there.

I know this might be off subject but are we signing Jenkins or is there trouble in paradise? The deadline for signing is coming up and so far crickets. McCleod has been pitching pretty well after TJ. Hoping he can be a lefty solution down the line. Those high A hitters are still doing well. They have three hitters in the top 10 for OPS (not including the recently moved up Schobel). Rosario is number 2, Rodriguez number 8 and Cardenas number 10 and if you go as far as 15 then Ross is there making it four. That doesn't include the two promoted bats that don't qualify in Cossetti (.851 OPS would be tied with Rosario if qualified) and Ortgea with a .747 OPS.. Those guys are having good years.

Nice to see Miller hitting the ball hard. He has more HR's in July than the previous three months to start the season. So far in July he has a .800 OPS which we haven't seen from him in quite some time. I hope his July bat is here to stay because his defense is very, very good add in a plus hit tool and he could be a very valuable player for a Twins system with few true shortstops. Ohl pitched really well. Too bad that Triple spoiled his line. 7 K's and keeping that WHIP in line he knows how to pitch sometimes things just don't break your way.

Kind of curious about the Kuechel non opt out. So does this mean that the Twins are planning to deal players at the deadline to make room for Kuechel? You would think that just before the deadline would be a good time to opt out as teams are generally looking to add pitching. Granted most playoff teams might not consider him a difference making arm, but still he seems like a good depth piece\insurance to cover for injuries a team might suffer. The other question is does he have more leverage just after the deadline for teams that didn't get the players they wanted or found the prices to high pay? Will he opt out just after the deadline or will he not need one because there is a wink, wink agreement he will be added once the Twins make more room? In interviews he sounded like he didn't want to stay with a team that didn't view him as a 40 man add. He has pitched pretty well at AAA. While his WHIP is a bit of a red flag the .90 ERA is impressive. Unless there just isn't league wide interest in him I don't know why he would pass on taking the opt out at what seems like a prime time to be on the market. Unless he is essentially guaranteed a spot.

I really appreciate these writeups and the brief glimpse into the players personality. Thanks for dong these!!

Schobel not slowing down at AA. Nice to him off to a good start. He and Lee with 5 of the 7 hits for Wichita last night. Quite the one, two punch. Nice to see Varland have his control back. Not sure if he was over throwing or what the deal was, but he went through a tough stretch. Hopefully he is back on track now. Larnach went 0 for 5 and left 8 men on base last night. That is not going to help him get called back up. He did take a walk though so that's good. Rodriguez has a game changer swing and seems to be back to the hitter he was last year. A .940 OPS in June and .850 OPS to start July. That double in the 9th was clutch. Rosario slumping in July but got the game winning hit. He hits that ball hard but a lot of outs to deep left. Needs to get a bit more of the barrel on some of those and his numbers change big time. Olivar not having the same level of success he had in the FCL but he still is the best hitter on his team except for maybe McCusker who is old for the level. So far in July he has an .880 OPS. Taking plenty of walks as well and looks like a well rounded hitter. Not sure how well he catches but if he can play there his bat really plays up. Things are looking up for lot's of bats hoping guys stay hot.

Lee had some tough BABIP luck the beginning of this season hitting line drives right at guys. HIs K rate and Walk rate never really wavered the ball just wasn't dropping in as much as hoped. The more recent Harder contact has helped as well and while doubles are great, home runs are even better and hitting them generally gets you to MLB faster. Lee has double digit HR's not elite by any stretch but like most of his game rock solid. Nice to see the numbers finally working in his favor a little bit. Personally given the consistent approach at AA I think he technically is ready for MLB right now but no reason to hurry him and getting used to a lot of the junk stuff AAA pitchers throw would be a good final test. Hopefully they move him up in August so that he has a chance to maybe help the team down the stretch or at least early next year.

Totally agree it could be crazy money for the team that believes in him. 30M per wouldn't surprise me at all for a team needy for pitching with higher payroll dollars. Just go out and win any bidding war and call it a day. He isn't real young though so he needs to prove he can handle things the rest of this season.

I think 3/75 is what his side will ask for. Whether they can get it or not just depends on how other teams see Gray. To me he isn't an official number 1 like Sherzer\Verlander but also not too far off. I think a three year deal at 20M per year seems like the floor if he stays healthy and continues to pitch well. If he falls of in the second half might be more in line with 15 to 17 per year. I don't think the Twins go three years with Gray. They have invested in Lopez and have Ryan and Ober with Paddack on the way back. I think they will be OK without him but who knows for sure what will happen. I never saw them resigning Correa either.

If this is just a Castro versus Gordon deal then yes I think Castro is the better option. They both are aggressive at the plate and don't walk much. Their batting stats are really pretty close but Castro seems better and more versatile in the field. He also is a switch hitter which can give him better pitching matchups. That being said neither player looks like they will ever be much over a .700 OPS hitter and that is why they are bench bats. Castro has never even had an OPS over .700 except in the COVID shortened 2020 year. So long term I think you hope for something better there, but his versatility seems unmatched as he can do most everything well but not really elite in any area. I think he stays in this role until someone better comes along and that someone better doesn't seem like Nick Gordon to me.

Not sure what it means but when I saw him live when they were in Beloit I just don't think he see's the ball well and he rarely squares anything up. I know he is young and might just need more time but he looks eerily similar to Wander Javier at the plate IMO. I honestly don't think the hit tool is going to come around but that is just my untrained eye with some bias built in as guys that don't have that skill when younger generally have to be late bloomers or not make it all. He is dead last in OPS at the High A level. That does not show top 30 talent to me even if he is young for the level if the talent is there he shouldn't be dead last. Urbina isn't far behind him. Another guy that might flame out and Miller isn't too far off from that himself although he has been hitting the ball hard and better lately. Its a tough league and those guys are young. I get that there is time. Next year maybe they have a better handle on approach or how to handle what's coming. I might be a little too pessimistic this early but maybe the Twins see some of the same things. He needs to get back to the basics and sort some things out. Glad they are giving some time away.

Thanks for the great coverage of the draft!! There is no better site for the Twins draft than Twins Daily. The interaction you get to have is top notch as is the information. I will say looking back a lot of the Twins best players and biggest stars came from the high school ranks so I like the fact fact they leveraged that this draft. Still while high school picks often have the highest ceiling they also have the lowest floors. So no guarantee's there. The Twins have nailed a lot of picks in the last three drafts but I still like what they did in 2021 with Petty and then grabbing three left handed pitchers. Granted most of the top of that draft has been traded away now as other teams liked those picks as well. 2022 is looking pretty good right now as well if Prielipp were healthy it would be looking even better so I think they are identifying good players and doing a good job of development. Hoping this class is their best one yet. Thanks again for covering the draft for us junkies who like to follow it early. 🙂

Walter Jenkins Jenkins has louder tools than Lee. More power, better speed and I hope just as good a hit tool at least it is rated to turn out that way. If the speed holds he has true 5 tool potential. Brooks Lee Lee Is a rock solid player but needs more power or better batting average to be a difference maker IMO. Charlee Soto Already throws hard and has ace upside. Most exciting pitcher in the system if you ask me. Emmanuel Rodriguez He has been very Jekyll and Hyde this year and I have lost some faith but he is still young and the upside so high I am giving him the 4 spot. Marco Raya Going with Raya here but have to say I am getting worried about reliever risk. Still he bends pitches like Berrios so deserves a high spot. Matt Wallner There are a lot of underlying warts to his hitting profile, but he just keeps putting up good numbers. He is ready for his shot, and we'll find out if his weaknesses are too much to overcome at the MLB level or not. Tanner Schobel Schobel gets no love but he is outperforming Lee granted at a lower level. This high a ranking might be premature but no other player has dominated his level so thoroughly this year. He is leading his league in HR's and 2nd or third in OPS. He is performing better than a lot first round picks taken in his draft year. I thought about putting him as high as number 4 but the sample size is just too small. David Festa AA has been a challenge but he still gets the K's and the FIP and xFIP look solid. Feels like he is going to need another something to make it though. Brent Headrick You can easily argue I have him too high here. He has average stuff but finds a way to get guys out. I might too big a believer but this is my list so have him at 9 Matt Canterino This also might be high for an elite pen arm but has the pitches and the velocity so I think he could be special out of the pen. Connor Prielipp Dropping Connor mainly because back to back TJ makes me wonder if his arm will ever hold up and I certainly no longer see him as a starter. He still has elite movement and could be a shut down pen arm so he slides to 11 for me. Noah Miller I love watching Miller play defense. Picks the ball, makes the throws, gets in good position he feels elite defensively to me. Even though he can control the strike zone and take walks the contact he makes is weak. I was going to drop him lower but he is having a hot July with a 1.000 OPS. Hitting homers and doubles so if the bat does come around he will be top 5 for me. If he continues to struggle at the plate I see him continuing to move down as he isn't getting any younger. Luke Keaschall Don't know much about him yet but he runs well and looks like he will have power and have a strong hit tool. Sounds like he might need to work on his defense but 13 feels like a good place to start for a guy with above average offensive tools. Yasser Mercedes Off to a poor start in the FCL but not surprising as most first year DSL players struggle that first year. Still has a ton of tools, but want to make sure that hit tool is for real before moving him higher up the list. Kala'i Rosario He probably should be higher on this list as he has been the most consistent player from the start of the season. Like Schobel he is top three for OPS in his league and just a homer or two behind Schobel and he is younger than Schobel. His defense has been a little rocky so I put him a little lower and he has been slumping some as the season wears on. He could and maybe should be top 10 but gonna wait and see. Jordan Balazovic He is still striking guys out at a good clip but the ERA and FIP are not great and it is hard to see him as an "elite" type arm. Maybe 5th starter? Maybe bullpen arm? The shine is off for me but the K rate lands him here for me. Andrew Cossetti Probably too high for Cossetti but I just like the guy and he dominated A ball. He is stocky with a good catchers build. Actually Camargo should be right there with him but I don't see him on the list. I will let them share this spot as I like both but Cossetti has well rounded peripheral numbers that make me think he could be a truly well rounded catcher. Taking a chance putting him this high but I like his numbers so far. Junior Severino He likes to hang around the .900 OPS mark. Hits the ball hard and likes to hit HR's but his BABIP and K rate worry me. Still he is a power bat with a decent average. I think he belongs here. Austin Martin Still has the skills just waiting for him to put it together. He has been a mess. I need to see more before I put him higher and he isn't really all that young anymore either. Jose Rodriguez Only big DSL player from last year holding his own in the FCL. The power is not there this year but at least he is hitting the ball. I still think he could be a special bat but will have to wait and see. SWR doesn't make my list as I don't see elite arm and the fastball doesn't look good. Enlow hasn't shown me quite enough to trust him yet at least in the top 20. Salas has the worst OPS in the Midwest league there is no one lower. He can't be top 20 with a bat that bad. I wanted to put Ross in but needed to see better plate discipline and higher batting average.

Strikeouts are a concern for me too but I see you put Wallner 4th and he had a higher K rate at an older age at High A and until this year at AAA has had K rates into the 30% range. Rosario is currently around a 26% K rate and with his 14% walk rate that seems pretty workable to me. It very similar to Wallner's numbers at AAA this year. I think Rosario is on that path and might end up slightly better hard to say as he just turned 21 in July. I think he has been more focused on working counts this year and not always worried about hitting HR's. Personally I think his profile looks better than Wallners did at that level and Wallner is at number 4. That is why I think he is bit low on the list.

I think that is a solid list I really only have one major quibble. I think Rosario should probably be in the top 10 for hitters in the system. He is ahead of Schobel for OPS at high A. He is patient enough to have more walks than Schobel as well. Oh, and he is about two years younger. I get Schobel likely is a plus defender and I don't think Rosario ever will be but the hit tool trumps all tools and Rosario has one of the best in the Midwest league. I think you are too low on him.