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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I agree with others that it is far too early to tell what SWR or Martin might become but agree with the OP that in their current state things are concerning. The emotional side of me says that if Martin is a Gordon\Castro type player that feels like a poor return to me. In the draft thread no one wants Wilson at #5 and he is essentially Martin with the bat with maybe slightly slower wheels. So it sure doesn't feel like the future is bright there IMO. Still the rational side says he has always been an elite contact hitter and he needs time to get back to who he is\was. Gonna need more time to see where he is at and he far too talented to give up on this early. SWR never did develop the fastball as hoped and the secondary's are good but not elite. It feels like he has toped out at AAA but again he is young. Lot's of players have growing pain seasons so too early to give up on him as well. He does look better as pen arm to me which wouldn't be the worst thing since Martin was the main piece in the trade. Currently things don't look good for the Berrios trade but by as early as next year they could look great. Just too early to tell but to the OP's point yes things don't look as good today as they did at the time of the trade.
  2. Dman
    Of the three Kernal's with 12 home runs it looks like Ross is the first to hit 13 tied for 1st in the league with Jace Jung. Have to say I didn't see this kind of power coming from Ross out of the draft as I figured he would be more of a doubles power guy but if he keeps this up he could have 5 tool potential. There is work to do as he needs to bring his batting average and walk rate up and K rate down but he has time to get there. I would think he has to be exceeding expectations for a first year pro from a smaller school. I love the power but am finding you need to be well rounded at the plate to succeed all the way up. I hope he reaches his full potential. E-Rod is also in the top 10 for HR's in that league so you can see the Kernals have a pretty lineup. Pitching has been very good there as well so they are a tough team to beat. Hoping to see some of those players move up and see if their skills translate to the higher levels.
  3. Dman
    Taking Prep pitchers high scares me. Most Mocks have Meyer in the 9 to 10 range and a few lower than that mainly based on how difficult it is to project hard throwing righties from High School. Given the college pitching options ahead of him I just don't see the Twins using the number 5 pick on someone like that unless they are cutting a deal for guys later in the draft. Still Petty seems like a pick that is going to work out and the Twins know a heck of a lot more about arms than I do. It just seems kind of hard to take a wild card in that spot when it feels like there is more solid talent at the top this year.
  4. Dman
    For all us stat watchers it was interesting to see the Saints go hitless against a really good probably MLB caliber pitcher for 5 innings. Once he left the bats started heating up and they won the game but it kind of feeds into the fact of why AAA stats can get so inflated as they don't face MLB caliber pitching game in and game out. Still that lineup at St Paul is MLB caliber as well with Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, Larnach, Williams, Stevenson, and Camargo. Gonna win a fair number of games with a lineup like that.
  5. Dman
    Like most a bit surprised Raya got the promotion to AA and yet maybe I shouldn't be since he has a ton of movement. I assume they keep at the same pitch count and just see how well his stuff plays at AA. Seems like the Twins have been more aggressive when they can be with the promotions this year and I think that is good. That Cedar Rapids team has three players tied for second in the Midwest league with 12 HR's in Rosario, Schobel and Ross. Cossetti isn't too far behind and hits the ball hard but he started at A ball and hasn't been quite as dominant at High A. With Ortega up and doing pretty well himself most all of the Twins top 10 2022 hitters from the draft are really doing well. If there was room I think all 5 could be at AA by the end of their first full pro year. AA is generally a tough test for hitters although the Texas league seems to be a bit hitters league. At any rate hoping those guys just stay dominant all the way up.
  6. Dman
    I was looking at the International League stats for AAA and to my surprise Jake Cave leads that league in OPS. He is ahead of CES and Wallner and Williams and 20 spots ahead of Stevenson. It looks like he is doing it with Doubles power as he has 28 of them so he is still hitting the ball hard and at AAA they are falling in. I have really come to appreciate Stevenson and I think he is faster than Cave but Stevenson does lack power or I think he would be a major league player already. Also Cave was so bad for so long with the Twins I think it was past time for him to try some place new. At any rate I have to say to I was very surprised to see him number 1.
  7. Dman
    I was thinking the Lowder and Nola comp as well. Nola was a control pitcher without a big fastball. Sort of in the pitch to contact non of us wanted the Twins to take. I do like the elite (Santana Lite) Change he has and the Twins have been good at helping guys develop sliders and now sweepers. I still think the bats are too strong for them to go pitcher and going pitcher is always a big risk because if they have one big arm issue you come out with nothing in a deep draft. I wouldn't hate the pick but it would take some balls to make it IMO. The way the team has been playing I think this FO goes the safe route. Their jobs might depend on it.
  8. Dman
    I think I like Soto the best with Head not far behind. I don't think they will make it to the Twins supplemental pick but I would love to have either one of them. Schanuel would be a dream pick as well but I suspect he goes in the 20's as well. Your list shows this a deep top 60 players in this draft so all teams should come away with good talent this year.
  9. Dman
    He was never in consideration for me. Never liked the profile especially since he is slow runner. Not a guy you take top 5. I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked in the 20's. Just say no.
  10. Dman
    With OPS being king hard hit rate is supposed to solve all problems but when you can't hit the ball and strike out it doesn't matter how hard you swing it is still as easy out. The less you put the ball in play the fewer chances you have to make a difference in a game. It seems like the players that do best are well balanced at the plate. Wade, Arraez, Jullien Steer, take their walks and hunt good pitches to hit. It can be good to be a contact hitter but as Miranda and in the past Astudillo show us, if you don't make quality contact (weak contact) that doesn't work well either. The Twins have invested pretty heavily in three outcome players but when the K rate is high and the quality of contact generally low those hard swings are negated. Correa is horrible with two strikes. Just throw something way outside and he will swing to protect the plate and be an automatic K. I would pitch Buxton to the outside as well. Poor plate discipline equals poor results. I would focus on guys who can take walks as they are much safer bets to succeed when they get to MLB. Having a good eye is very, very important IMO. I don't know what the Twins can do to fix this as so many hitters are struggling. Kepler and Gallo have helped sink this team as much as Correa and Buxton. Three out of those four players are worse hitters than bench players Solano and Castro with Rookies Lewis and Jullien playing much better. This team has problems.
  11. Dman
    I think the top three are set at Crews. Skenes and Langford. I am not 100% sold that the high school kids will go 4 and 5 and I still think the Pirates might go Clark at number 1 if he is willing, and he should be, to take a discount to go number 1. Personally I think Pittsburgh should take Skenes as right and left fielders can be found later in drafts. Granted the two available could be generational bats but an ace pitcher is generally much, much harder to find. Still there is a lot of risk going pitcher as arm problems can negate any value the pick had. Still having a stopper type starter is what they will need to compete against the better teams so they should go big or go home IMO. I still think Texas might go with Teel. They are weak at the catcher position and his bat should play well and likely move faster. I could also see them going pitcher and Clark wouldn't be a bad choice either but I think Teel makes the most sense for them IMO. The rest of the draft is anybody's guess. Just way too many variables and guys are ranked really closely so just depends on what a team wants and what level of risk they want to take on. I like the mock it looks as solid as anything I have seen online. Thanks for sharing it with us!
  12. Dman
    HIs pitch movement is Berrios like or better. Just crazy movement on some of his secondary's. HIs stats look great and I love the sub 1 WHIP. K rate around 30% and xFIP and ERA pretty much match. The numbers make him look rock solid to this point. Just needs to keep those innings up and stay healthy and he should be a good one.
  13. Dman
    If the Twins had any semblance of offense I don't think it would be as painful to watch Arraez playing so well. This K prone, pitch chasing, unclutch with bases loaded, bunch of hitters makes you miss a guy that buckles down in the clutch and delivers more often than not. We all loved him but it seemed like someone needed to move and we needed another starter. So here we are. As others have said while he was always a difference maker we didn't win with him and his extra few hits weren't likely to change much this season either. Still the pain is real as this team feels like they would K if the pitcher used a softball. It would be nice to watch a professional hitter and Arraez is one of the best. He is gone now though and the FO needs to find a way to make this team better. Hopefully they trade some guys at the deadline and see what they have in the young guys because this team as constructed stinks.
  14. Dman
    Yeah lot's of high OPS's at AAA so not sure how much that means but if you don't have a high OPS there then you are likely in trouble. When you think about it hitters are facing for the most part what would be the worst pitchers at the MLB level as most of them haven't made it there or couldn't stay there. The best of the best are all in MLB so the hitters should find some hittable pitches against AAA pitching. IMO you have to figure at least a .200 point drop in OPS from AAA to MLB and sometimes a .300 point drop ends up being closer to what actually happens. Its a tough transition going against the best starters and relievers in the game day after day instead of guys who couldn't quite get there or stay there. Still I think when a player is in that .900 to 1.000 OPS range for a long stretch it is time to give them their shot. Only way to find out if they can make it is to move them them to the Majors and see if they can adjust. Williams can be pretty streaky I would want to see a fairly long period of dominance before adding but he could be a Collebello type late bloomer bat. Stevenson has been up before and wasn't horrible nor was he great but IMO I think he could be MAT like just not with the same level of power. Maybe his second time around he does better hard to say but I wouldn't mind seeing what both those players can do if the Twins are out of it like they might bein the next month or two.
  15. Dman
    Wallner will be up around the trade deadline. The Twins are going to hold onto their assets for another month and see if they can gain value for a trade. If no takers then depending on where they are in the standings I assume a DFA or two might be coming. Until then unless injury I think Wallner is stuck at AAA. I do hope he gets a good long run with MLB club in the second half. He looked pretty good the last time up in a SSS. Gonna echo another poster on Dobnak. He is starting to round into shape. I was starting to think he might never get back to who he was. He is going to need to show consistency this next month but if he does he can make a case to be added. Would love to see him make it back as a reliever. Too much contact to be a starter IMO but if he comes up with an out pitch then might be 5th starter material. At any rate just nice to see him doing well for a stretch. Schobel seems ready to move up with a monster June where he hit .326/.406/.629 for and OPS of 1.035. That is about as dominant as you are going to get. he is tied for 4th in his league for HR's and 7th for OPS and that is after a brutal start to the season. He is at a lower level but right now he is performing better than Brooks Lee. Hopefully they move him up and see how he does at a higher level. AA is the toughest level for a hitter IMO. The pitching is good especially off speed and breaking pitches. Most of the freebies are gone so much harder to get hits.
  16. Dman
    I will say that I prefer Teel for #5 if it is between him and Jenkins and I think Jenkins is the one who will fall to #5. Still I am going to go against the consensus of the board here and say I really like Wilson. Bat to ball skills are extremely important in making it to MLB. Yes power plays as well but if you can't hit the ball it all goes sideways. Wilson doesn't quite have Arraez type skill because he doesn't walk enough and that is a problem but one that will likely be rectified and while I don't see 20 HR power from his bat I think that like they did with Steer they can help Wilson get to more pop. He has a 65 hit tool runs well and has a strong arm. If he had more power projection he probably would be a 5 tool player. He is going to go top 10 as it is maybe even top 6. Yes I like the other 4 players better than Wilson and I have Teel above him only because it is so hard to find a good hitting catcher with Teels athleticism. Teel is a bit of a unicorn catcher if you ask me but I still feel there is a case for Wilson and who ever does get him might be getting an All Star bat with very good defense. Personally I like guys that don't strike out as they put the ball in play and it is a lot more fun to watch than then the K prone Twins. Neto had a similar profile and he was the first to MLB. Don't sell Wilson short.
  17. Dman
    This offense stinks especially when it comes to clutch at bats. Maybe Morneau can come out of retirement and show them how it is done. Glad I didn't watch this one.
  18. Dman
    I watch off and on but this team seems just snakebite this year so not invested as heavily. it feels like last year to be honest they start out OK get reeled in and now will likely go in the tank. If they can go on a winning streak and look like a decent team I could jump back on the bandwagon but for now I am just on the periphery box score watching and reading articles on Twins Daily. Paying more attention to the minor leagues right now. I actually have been watching Saints games on MiLB.TV because that teams offense is so fun to watch. My disappointment with this current team is high. They should be better than this especially on offense but since they aren't it looks like a lost season to me. Always going to follow but not really watching games with the offense so bad there isn't much to watch.
  19. Dman
    Grace is a good story. I was pretty much ready to give up on him. It shows that pitchers are often times just a refined pitch away being OK to great. Hoping he finishes strong we desperately need dominant pen arms. Seems like a lot people on the board were Lewis believers even before the season started and he hasn't disappointed. Williams and Wallner look like monster bats but really like what Cossetti, Ortega and especially what Rosario have done the first half. High A has almost half the top 30 in it and if these breakouts hold the top 30 is going to change. I really like Cardenas's bat but I think Cossetti has him beat. Should be a good battle all the way up. Hopefully some the younger guys bats catch fire in 2nd half. Need more breakouts. St Paul and Cedar Rapids are must watch affiliates right now.
  20. Dman
    I like the top 4 guys the best in Skenes, Crews, Langford and Clark. I haven't been on the Jenkins bandwagon but I could be very wrong there. If Jenkins is the one who is left and I presume he will be then I would prefer Teel at number 5. An athletics catcher with good enough wheels could be a difference making pick if he turns out well at catcher. I will say that for all the hype about college position players most of the Twins players started as high school or IFA's. Look at the roster. The High school picks are Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, Lewis, Miranda, Gordon and IFA's are Polanco, Kepler, and the now departed Arraez. So a lot of the starters\star power for position players seems to come from the high school ranks at least for this team. Yeah Jeffers, Jullian and Gallo are college bats but the vast majority lie in kids that started pro young. Last years draft had the first 4 picks as high schoolers. So while high school picks can take some time and not everyone of them works out there are a lot of starters on this team that came into the system young. Doesn't mean college picks don't work out or work out as well but high school picks can be high reward picks. I don't love the idea of Langford as a likely left fielder but he does have plus wheels so he should be able to play all three positions granted his arm is the weakest link in his profile and makes right field a stretch for him. Still I like the speed power profile and he isn't the typical plodder the Twins tend to pick. H e could be the one to fall depending on how the draft goes. I think that Texas will end up going with Teel or a pitcher in the end. They traded for Garver a while back and I think Teel would be a good fit for them and his bat plays almost as well as the top 5. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them take Texas sized swing at Lowder or Dollander as they like premier pitching. I think it all just depends on who falls.
  21. Dman
    Been thinking about this a fair bit and who do we have that would be much better at this time? I would love to trade him at the deadline but all the young guys haven't really grabbed the role and I don't love Jovani Moran and his walk heavy 1.47 WHIP. Sands hasn't been great and is on the IL. Alcala, De Leon, Henriquez and Thielbar are all on the IL. Ortega didn't look all that great in his one shot. Balazovich was OK in SSSS but has a 1.61 WHIP in AAA so I can't see depending on him at the MLB level. Winder was horrible early on but maybe he has righted the ship? Still a wild card though. Headrick has been pretty good but got hammered his last time out and they seem to be saving him as a backup starter at this point. SWR hasn't been good at AAA all year. Jorge Lopez is out and hasn't been good since the first month of the year. If it wasn't for Brock Stewart this pen would be teetering on disaster. There are no realistic options in the minors that I can see. Maybe Enlow but he hasn't looked as good at the AAA level as he did at AA. Granted SSSS there. So Pagan is it unless they are trading for someone else. It might be why they were desperate to bring Kuechel in as maybe he can be an option? I think we are stuck with Pagan to the end of the year unless they can work out a one for one trade with some other team or pull another Brock Stewart out of their hat.
  22. Dman
    Yeah I don't know that, that excites me much at number 5 with E-Rod, Rosario and Jose Rodriguez already young and on the way up and the Twins have invested lot's of their pool in outfielders in international free agency it doesn't feel like the best use of draft capital if he is the one that is left. Still he is highly regarded by virtually every outlet so what do I know. Teel has a nice batting line and plays a position where it is hard to find quality offensive output so that has a special value all its own. I know lots of people don't like Wilson's lack of power but he is not too far of from Brooks Lee with the bat IMO and he is a faster runner with a decent chance to stick at short another position of need for Minnesota. I think I like both better than Jenkins given how the farm is setup. However, if Jenkins turn into the next Tucker then that decision could go sideways. Thanks for the response! 🙂
  23. Dman
    Seems like just too many good bats to go pitcher at number 5 unless Skenes drops. Too much variance in results to want Dollander at number 5. Been burned there before with Tyler Jay hoping to refine pitches. The bats look like better bets to me. I still think Pittsburgh should take Skenes number 1. They will need an ace to compete and there should be good bats all the way down to pick 60 or so. If ever there was a perfect pitcher to take number 1 he would be it. I get them looking at Clark and doing a (Royce Lewis) type move. He is a 5 tool player that in time could be as good or better than any player in the top 5 but I am pretty certain they will regret passing on Skenes as he seems like such a unicorn pitcher. A Verlander like pitcher IMO. Jeremey what more can you tell me about Jenkins? I hear he was looked at pretty hard by Washington and Texas really likes his bat as well. Is he sort of a Bryce Harper comp with the quick stroke and power or not quite that level? There also are rumblings about Teel being top 5 in some mocks if teams view offensive catcher as scarce and his bat and eye a plate seem to play well but maybe just under the main top 5. I know for the most part all the mocks have the main top 5 in various orders but I still think teams might want more than a big corner outfield bat as those can be found lower in the draft as well. Usually the top is saved for up the middle bats and high end pitching but Crews and Langford do look special and others would add Jenkins to that list. Clark looks solid for up the middle and Skenes the best pitcher I have seen at the top in quite a while so maybe it just stays set. Should be an interesting 1st round for sure.
  24. Dman
    Really enjoy these reports!! Rosario still no top prospect love and he is young for his level at 20 years old and is at the top of league in OPS and HR's. K rate to walk ratio is solid as well. He should be in TD's top 20 prospects by now if you ask me and Twins top 30 at MLB.com. I know he doesn't play up the middle like Miller and Salas but he is essentially the same age (slightly older) and performing much better offensively which is a must to reach MLB. He kept those number the entire first half so time to show him some prospect love IMO. Jose Rodriguez hasn't slowed down in the FCL. Hoping he keeps that bat hot and is on his way to A ball at some point. A lot of interesting bats in the FCL this year especially outfielders. Should be a nice group at Fort Meyers next year.
  25. Dman
    I really like how Castro fits this team. As mentioned in the OP he can play almost anywhere can bat from both sides and has speed. If the bat holds up he is an absolute must have player as he he fits the super utility role to a tee. I am still skeptical of his plate approach but given the Twins approach in general he can't be much worse. Have to say I didn't have him making the team out of spring training but probably lucky he got some chances to prove he belongs and he could be a big part of this team again if the bat stays productive. Really glad he chose the Twins after the Tigers let him go. He has been fun to watch and a difference maker for this team in many ways.
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