Dman

I have been thinking about this a lot and I guess I am someone who probably loves prospects and future potential too much but, I don't really want the Twins to trade many prospects in the top ten let alone guys that already look good at the MLB level. Jenkins could be the star player that drives this team like Lewis does I don't want to move him. As mentioned above Lee is the perfect Polanco replacement and he can play 2nd. short and 3rd along with being a switch hitter. Lee completes the infield and adds a ton of versatility I think trading him would be a mistake. Rodriguez is polarizing right now. He could be something great or just meh. Still he could be our center fielder by 2025 and\or an excellent Kepler replacement in right. He has power and a good eye at the plate just like Kepler but possibly some contact issues. There is no one close enough that can do what he does though and his upside is mini Soto. The Twins likely need him as soon as next year. The only guys in the top 10 or 11 on MLB.COM I would be OK trading would be Schobel, De Andrade or Keischal as they are just further infield depth and the Twins already have that and pretty far into the future. I also can't see them trading Jullien as he has great plate discipline and power and is a really good lead off option. I realize that with Lee coming he likely gets moved off of second but his bat plays at first base or DH and he can play second at times as well. I can see that in some ways he might be expendable but he is still important to this years team. Wallner looks elite defensively in left and can handle right field. His arm is a difference maker. His power is a difference maker. Not sure if the K's catch up to him but he looks like a middle of the order bat and he is a native Minnesotan. Just can't see moving him. I get it if they can get a top of the rotation arm it might be worth moving one of the players mentioned but IMO they all have key roles to play on the current team as well. Definitely some tough decisions if they are trading for a top of the rotation arm with years of control and arms are riskier bets long term than bats. Where is @Mike Sixel to tell me I need to step out of my comfort zone and just take the risk and go for it?

Expecting at least one of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Balazovich and Headrick to step up and help the bullpen last year almost ended in disaster. 40 man space is valuable and all 5 of those guys were a drag on the roster. At least one of them was supposed to grow into the role and none of them did. Henriquez is already off the 40 man and Winder seems to be in no man's land as well. Balazovich might have a chance but with his control problems it seems unlikely. That only leaves Sands and Headrick as legit options to me and both gave up hard contact too often. Festa, Ohl and Raya are right behind them and will need to be added next fall. Those fringe guys need to figure it out fast or get passed by.

If the Twins didn't want Maeda for that kind of money it seems hard to believe they would trade for a guy with fairly similar results at about the same AAV and throw in trade pieces as well. Still he is a lefty with solid results so who knows. Probably would cost Festa or Raya as I would think the reason the Cards are willing to trade him is for some salary relief after the Gray signing and to rebuild the prospect pool. I think I would rather keep Raya and Festa as they could be mid to top of the rotation arms with lot's of years of control if things work out. It doesn't feel like a likely match to me.

Yeah I agree. Hard to find a Brooks Lee type player in the the comp rounds. It can be done just not likely to happen. Also takes longer for draft picks to develop than guys closer to ready. So that pick has only so much value. I was thinking the Twins might get the Brewers to bite on the Comp pick for Burnes plus maybe Polanco or some other player that fits their roster. That way the Brewers have the certainty of getting the comp pick for Burnes and something else they need. The Twins get Burnes with the potential to get a comp pick for him after 2024. Still a fair bit of risk for the Twins if Burnes is injured or has a bad year he might not be worthy of a QO, but in theory both teams could get something they want or need. Probably depends on if the Brewers are in a partial rebuild mode or still trying to win it all for that to work though.

First let me say I am a big Maeda believer. I know he hasn't pitched a complete season in some time and tends to wear down as the season goes on, but he still is a quality pitcher and for 12M per year that seems like a bargain to me and even more so on a short term deal for what he will bring to Detroit. Really solid move by the Detroit FO IMO. They still have money to spend so I assume other moves will be coming for them. If the Twins weren't willing to match that offer then they must feel like they can get a trade done for starting pitching as well as get someone better than Maeda? Otherwise why not take a short term deal on a guy you know and is a pretty consistent performer? Varland\Festa is some depth but not enough IMO. I just hope I am not going to be disappointed with what Falvine are going to end up doing.

Twins are in an interesting spot. They technically don't "have" to trade anyone as they are below their self imposed cap limit right now. They could do a bargain bin 5th starter, waiver claim relievers and get creative with center and first base. They could stand pat if they want to. If they want to better roster balance then trading Polanco makes the most sense to me and they could trade Farmer as well if they needed more financial wiggle room. They need to get back something substantial though otherwise it makes more sense just to keep Polanco as they are a playoff ready team. Like it or not it feels like they need Kepler for one more season while we wait and see how close Rosario and Rodriguez are to helping in 2024. They would need to get something serious back to trade Kepler and I can't see another team believing his second half numbers against mainly sub .500 clubs is sustainable. I don't think they can get the value they need back to make it worth trading him. I don't think it makes sense to trade Vasquez in any way shape or form. They need his defense and I think he hits better next year anyway. Yeah 10M is too high for his production but they wanted him and paid the price in Free Agency to get him. Next year is the year they need to trade him IMO not this year. They might trade for another arm but it needs to be for a mid rotation arm not some 5th starter type as they have Varland, Festa and possibly Headrick and SWR for that role. The cost to get that done is going to be high though. I am curious as to what they are going to be able to get done and feel that like most years it will be later deal when there are fewer free agency options left and teams have to make hard decision about how to balance rosters.

I agree the walk and K rate were really good at AAA. The average and OPS needed a fair bit of work. I still think he can hold down a center field job and if not then a really nice 4th outfielder. A good pickup for the Pirates IMO. Made sense for Celestino to move on as he and Martin share similar skillsets and Kiersey seems to have passed him and Rodriguez looks like Celestino with Power and a higher K rate. He wasn't going to get his shot with the Twins so best to try somewhere else. I wish him the best and agree with @Cory Engelhardt that he can still be a good MLB player.

I think I suffer from analysis paralysis at times. I don't love the idea of losing Festa in a lot of the proposed deals as he is a controllable arm that projects as a mid rotation starter. No way to know just yet if he reaches that potential but the reason he has trade value is because the odds look good that he will make it. And yet you have to give value to receive value so I get the trade off. While I think the time is now to trade Polanco and possibly Kepler .800 OPS bats aren't exactly easy to find and the Twins are in contention mode. That being said it looks like they need one more good veteran starter and bullpen arm. they have been rumored to be looking for centerfield and 1st base help as well. If they are going to better balance the roster odds are someone or sometwo have to go if payroll is moving backwards. It is tough trying to balance short and long term goals. Hopefully the FO finds a way to do both.

Yeah Gray should just sit back and wait because he looks like the pitcher to get least amount of years but I bet the AAV keeps rising as the bidding goes up.

Baseball is a business and will always be run like a business. The owners aren't in business to lose money. Last year I thought there would be a lot of pressure to trade Kepler because I never saw the Twins keeping Payroll at 156M. It always felt like 140M was the break even point to me. Granted I have no idea what the numbers are, but that seemed like a number that would be tough to pass IMO. I give them credit for stretching to 156M, but with the TV deal collapsing and the thinking being that they can maybe recoup half that it makes sense for them to bring it down at least 20M if not slightly more if 156M was the break even point. I do agree with the OP though in that we (the fans) suffered through a long rebuild and were fine with the team not spending big money in free agency because there were so many holes to fill that one or two players just wasn't going to be enough to make a difference. I said at that time it was fine for them to pull back on spending if they would spend heavy when the team was in contention. Well this team is right there with a lot of playoff teams so it would be nice that even if they have to take a loss financially they give back to the fans that follow this team through thick and thin when they finally have a good team. I get that spending money guarantee's nothing just look at what happened to the Padres last year, but it sure can help solidify a team. This team is close and now is not the time to shrink back investing in it IMO.

I was surprised at just how good Lewis was his first season. Will know more after AA but he seems like he has top of the rotation potential. Just hoping the Twins hang onto the four horseman of Lewis, Culpepper, Morris, and Matthews. They already helped Cedar Rapids win two division titles and a league championship. Hoping they keep growing together and become rotation options at the MLB level at some point.

If you can't get excited about a 21 year old hitter winning MVP of his league you might as well stop following prospects because they can't play any better than that. How many Twins prospects have won MVP honors? He was better at a younger age than Daulten Rushing the Dodgers number 1 prospect. Sure the kid can improve on his plate discipline, but his approach was good enough as is, to win MVP honors ahead of the Dodgers number 1 prospect. If you ask me 11 is too low for this kid. I don't know if anyone on here has watched him but he has a nice setup at the plate leaning on his back leg to uncoil and launch baseballs. We'll know more once he hits AA as he will be challenged with more and better breaking stuff. Still he is the only right handed outfield bat with power close to the majors I don't think the Twins will be interested in trading him. If he meets the challenge at AA he could be a top 5 player in the Twins top 30 this time next year.

Yeah significant is relative. If that means top of the rotation starter then I would say I am way off. To me it means borderline top 100 prospect or another major league piece back.

That is a great deal for Chicago. I know most of those players haven't performed recently, but that still seems like a massive overpay for Bummer to me especially after his numbers last year and injury history. Sox likely struck gold with that deal if even one of the four\five work out.

Thanks for the correction! I thought he was still there. Will change my post.

When players get in a funk at the plate hitting coaches become important, but they can only do so much. The talents the players have and the team philosophy have more impact IMO. The Twins have drafted and developed their players to have power in their profile by focusing on exit velocities. Since the new FO took over they haven't been afraid to swing hard even in two strike counts. They are not afraid to K. When Rowson came over I believe it was Cruz's first year with the team. I am not sure who had more influence over the Bomba squad that year. Cruz was generally a patient hitter who waited for his pitch and wasn't afraid to swing hard at all times. It seemed like his mentorship might have been as important or maybe even more important than Rowson for that team. That being said the hitting coach generally gets more blame than deserved when players struggle and too much praise when the overall team is providing good offense. To me their main role is that psychological role of helping players get out of slumps. Looking at tape together. Providing a sounding board to work through things together. Not sure how good Rowson is at all that, but there really is only so much a hitting a coach can do. The player has to have the skills to hit.

I think those time frames look rock solid unless injuries change the timeline. The only two that would be wobbly for me are Rodriguez and Schobel. If Rodriguez is his typical .900 OPS self at AA to start the season and the Twins have a need in the outfield I do see a path for him in 2024 but lot's of things have to go right for him for that to happen. Schobel was very up and down last year. He really struggled at AA which is the toughest leap for hitters until they hit the Majors IMO. Given the struggles it might take more than one year to conquer AA and then AAA. Will just have to wait and see. If he starts AA like he did High A then he too has an outside chance at the Majors in 2024 although the clogged infield makes that less likely. I like the proposed dates if things turn out as expected. Still there will likely be variance because development doesn't always work the same way for each player.

Gallo set a pretty low bar last year, but if Severino barely clears that I don't think he makes a ton of sense. I think the Twins are looking for more production from the position. We just don't know what Severino can do against MLB pitching. The K rate isn't ideal nor the walk rate. It would take a deeper dive into the numbers to get a sense of how reliable he might be which is why I think they go with a veteran to start the season. I like the premise of the article though. I think in time if he can drop the K rate some he is a perfect 1st baseman. He has the power for the position and being a switch hitter it gives him an advantage no matter who is on the mound. He also makes for a nice pinch hitting option and DH. He has hit well the last two years but the jump to MLB ball is a big one. If they want to save some money and a roster spot I could see them giving it a try to start the season, but depending on rookies is a risky business. HIs numbers stumbled some even at AAA. I doubt he is someone they depend on to start the season.

I think the Twins are in the best shape they have been for starters heading into the offseason. I think they need one more starter though as that could give the bullpen a boost by putting Varland in the pen. I am hoping Festa looks like a usable option as the season wears on. He has the stuff, but he does seem to wear down as the pitch count mounts. Ohl is a wild card. He doesn't appear to have much for plus pitches, but he attacks and gets the job done. If that carries over to AAA he could help later in the season as well. Raya has ton's of plus pitches but tends to still give up too much contact. If he improves that this year he might be the best of the bunch. Not sure how many innings he can go, but he could be a pen arm down the stretch if needed. A lot has to go right for Festa, Ohl, Raya to contribute, but at least the potential is there. I don't trust the backup pen arms in Sands, Winder, Balazovich, Headrick, and Henriquez. They all were inconsistent last year. The FO was depending on those arms to improve, but they stayed flat IMO. Those guys need to bring it this year as Festa, Ohl, Raya and possibly Lewis are nipping at their heals. I am hoping the Twins can find at least one more veteran arm for the pen and preferably a high end one. Also hoping Canterino comes back strong and take a role in the pen as well. As this article points out the Twins have never had this level of higher quality pitching depth probably ever. Still they need to keep improving.

Sound reasoning. I agree on the OPS a .100 drop is usually the minimum .150 to .200 the norm at least that first year and sometimes worse than that. I agree the BABIP is high and unsustainable .320 to 330 is generally the best you can get away with with if you have good contact skills. Dropping 50 to 60 points of average would hurt even with the good slugging and since he is mainly a doubles guy and not a HR hitter that BABIP could sap some slugging as well. Still his OBP was good for an extra .150 points so dropping some average not the end of the world given the eye at the plate. As I well know and others pointed out adding position players on the 26 man for a year is much harder than hiding a reliever. The Twins have lost a few though over the years Baddoo being the most recent. The Twins protected the right 4 guys. Just have to wait and see if someone grabs Prato or not. Next years Rule V will have more pitchers on it with Raya, Festa and Ohl, possibly MaCleod and Hidalgo depending on the years they have and maybe Mooney again depending on if he stays healthy and performs. Rosario, Olivar and Cardenas will be in the running as position players and with Cardenas and Olivar being catchers they will have to be really careful if they decide not to add them. 40 man spots are valuable so I can see why they didn't add him. My thinking is was that they are likely trading Polanco and likely one of Kepler or Farmer and they still have two spots left so it seemed safe to add Prato for the year, but obviously they have different plans.

I wasn't a believer when they first picked him as he was barely an average runner and it looked like he would be moved off the position, but he quickly made me a believer with the good picks and strong accurate throws. The bat is still a work in progress, but if he finds that stroke this kid could be the All Star Shortstop we have been waiting for. Congrats on the well deserved gold glove and making us Twins minor league followers proud!

There are so many reason's not to add him If they would have added him I would have had a lot of questions. Reason's not add 1) A very high K rate 2) A one dimensional player that doesn't look great at 1st base and seems more suited to DH 3) Severino looks like a better fit for first base than Sabato and the Twins just added him 4) He is slow 5) I don't think another team would take him. Reasons to add. 1) He can work the count and take walks 2) His exit velocities are very good and generally lead to HR's. Still I don't think that is enough to make things work at the MLB level as he has to get the K rate down and the bat needs to be Elite or close to it to make it worth adding him as he adds no defensive value.

Yeah I thought about that too, but do you remember how Wallner started out his AA year in 2022? It was equally as bad with a higher K rate (I think he was approaching a 50% K rate?). Early season and colder weather can lead to some misleading results IMO. Once Wallner got it together it hasn't left him. Hard to say the same will hold true for Prato just yet, but like I said the balanced walk and K rate is key indicator of success as players move up. It is a good trend and he likely figured something out just like Wallner did. It is a risk both ways. For the Twins the added issue is they have Lee for whatever Prato's role would be so they might think they can afford the Rule V risk as he has to stay on 26 man roster of another all year. If he stinks next year then they don't have to try and get him through waivers and just let everything play out. They know him better than I do, as do other scouts so I could be dead wrong. The AAA line is strong and while he waivered some in August he came back with a nice September. I am the glass half full guy that thinks he is starter material somewhere and or at least a valuable trade asset if he proves himself this year.

Yeah I get your point and I do hope that is the case but Helman's numbers especially at AAA weren't nearly as balanced as Prato's. Prato's BA is .300 and he K's and Walks almost the same. Helman hit .250 with only a 9% walk rate. There were more warts there IMO. Prato's line is ideal and shows no weakness at AAA. The auto strike zone\tighter zone at AAA certainly could have caused the improvement for Prato, but that is still a pretty exceptional line IMO. He is only 25 so not that old. It is hard to carry position players on the 26 man but for a team that likely is playing a lot of young players like the A's he seems like a really good fit.

I think they are going to regret not adding Anthony Prato. When you look at those balanced AAA numbers you realize he could be a special bat. Not sure if anyone else saw that the Brewers gave up two top 30 prospects for the privilege of adding Oliver Dunn whose numbers at AA aren’t quite as good as Prato’s AAA numbers. Sure it could just be one good year and Prato's numbers could fall off but balanced K and walk rates generally lead to MLB success. If I were Oakland this is a player I make sure to grab in Rule V. Floor is utility player ceiling could be starter IMO.