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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    The bullpen does seem to be the biggest bang for the buck when you look at the way things are going. Really only two guys you would consider elite in Jax and Duran. If they get Thielbar and Stewart back that would really help. That would give them 4 tough arms. If Stewart isn't coming back this year they definitely need to replace his high leverage arm. One other things they could do is swap out Sands or Moran for the best kept secret at AAA Kody Funderburk. He has a 13.02 K9 and a 2.89 ERA at AAA with a FIP (2.08) that is even lower. Even his xFIP is a close match to his ERA so he is what he is and that is the best the reliever the Twins have had at AAA all year sans Brock Stewart. Worried about his WHIP don't be it is 1.10. Oh and he is a lefty. Will his fastball play at the MLB level that is the last question to be answered but if it does he looks far more dependable than Moran without all the unnecessary walks. Someone would have to go but given Sands has never even had a 13 K9 at AAA and has been blistered at the MLB level I'd say throw him on waivers or try to work out a deal to move him. Next year Enlow can be the new Sands. That still leaves us needing a couple more high leverage pen arms. Not sure who they would be or where they could get them but if the pen can start holding games this team has a really good chance to take the division and at least win a playoff game. I like the proposed strategy of loading up on pen arms.
  2. Dman
    I guess I am not sure why we are in such a hurry to trade Matt Wallner. He had a top 5 OPS in AA last year at 1.033 and at AAA this year his OPS is .927 and currently at the MLB level granted a SSS he has a .988 OPS. Most of those numbers are better than what Jullien put up. So what exactly are we going to get back that is better than that? I get he has some K rate issues as he hovers around the 30% mark but his walk rate is around 10% as well which offsets some of that. He has an unsustainable BABIP at AAA right now at just under .400 so there are some warts in the profile but this is two years in a row with elite OPS production in the two top leagues in the minors so I guess I don't understand why you wouldn't give a bat like that a chance at the MLB level before trading him for a withered old veteran for a team barely over .500. His defense at least what I have seen at target field is far from élite but he tracks down most balls and his arm makes up for some of the range issues. He is no Rooker out there. If they want to trade a Lefty outfielder trade Gallo, Gordon, Kepler, Larnach likely in that order as I think Wallner has more potential than all of them. While I would like to get something for Maeda before he leaves given the Twins are only 1 and half games up and he has a relatively fresh arm and has pitched about as well as the other four guys it seems like they might need him down the stretch to keep Cleveland at bay. If they think Kuechel can hold that 5th spot without too much damage and they think Varland and Headrick could fill in a pinch I guess I could see them trading Maeda but it better be a nice return and it should be young pitching IMO. Might be playing with fire there but this team has so many flaws maybe in the end it doesn't really matter.,
  3. Dman
    That is true. I will be a bigger believer when they add more innings on. So many of our elite guys end up with TJ and end up relievers. Still you are correct he really can bend a baseball so he has elite stuff if he can stay healthy.
  4. Dman
    If fans on TD can figure out the Twins have too many left handed corner bats it isn't too surprising other FO's know about that issue as well. The Twins technically only need to move one right now and Gallo seems the logical choice even if it means DFA. As discussed in another thread they could move Larnach and Gallo as they have Gordon coming back and they didn't really need Gallo to begin with. While I don't think it makes a ton of sense to move Gray I could see the Twins moving Maeda if the return was right and fill in Kuechel\Varland\Headrick type of deal but that seems like a long shot. The Twins have some interesting rule V issues coming up with Martin, Camargo, Severino, Rosario, Rodriguez and maybe Grace and Funderburk. Not sure what value those players have on the market but there likely isn't room to add them all after the season especially Severino. I think the Twins can make some moves just need the right deals to come together. teams should know that even though Steer and CES were not top 100 prospects Minnesota knows how to develop well rounded bats. So maybe they can get more value than we think.
  5. Dman
    Pretty cool that Winokur's first professional hit was a HR! I had and still have my questions about the bat but if it is for real the Twins got a steal in the 3rd round. Severino 2nd in HR's and 5th in OPS for the Texas League. I keep saying the K rate is too high and his BABIP should come down, bringing down his stats and yet here we are more than half way through the season and he is still a league leader with the bat. Twins have a lot of good hitters at 2nd base in the system and Severino has the best power profile. Nice to see Miller with a couple of hits keeping his July in the .700 OPS range. Hoping he can get that hit tool going so he can start moving up levels. Twins have some really good hitters in the system but pitching is not a strength. There are a few arms that look good but I don't know that I see an elite arm in this system right now. Hopefully guys figure stuff out and things change but they could use more help on the pitching side. Hoping the new crop of players strengthens everything.
  6. Dman
    If it is a good return I am all for it, but I do think he can be slightly above average defensively in left and I think given time his bat will come around. Don't need to give more good bats away. If it isn't this year then next might be tough as well as Rosario and Rodriguez will be moved up and one step away as well. I don't think he has to be traded at the deadline but if someone wants to offer us a good deal I would be all ears.
  7. Dman
    You don't have to spend that money in the lower rounds of the draft though. I wanted the Twins to grab Alex Clemmy but Cleveland gave him almost 1M over slot. You can use that extra cash earlier to sign higher end High School players that dropped out of the first round. In the End the Twins were able to drum up $700,000 to sign Winokur and still stay within the pool amount but imagine if they managed to grab one more player like that with the remaining $700,000 they had to spend. The extra pool money that comes with penalties can be spent anywhere it makes sense to grab a player that fell and would only sign for over a million. We are only talking about pick 20 because that is the only player left that could have been signed with that money but the Twins weren't going over the limit anyway so I guess maybe it was a backup if Winokur didn't sign? Hard to say but they had to know they weren't going to be able to get pick 20 without going over or they thought pick 20 would sign if offered $800,000. Still I see yours and others points that draft picks in general don't work out and 1 extra pick has even less odds of working out but it is interesting to think about who they might have been able to get if they were willing to throw it all in.
  8. Dman
    Wow! really nice article. For me I guess it depends on how the money "saved" is reallocated, but it is hard to believe you get a bigger bang for your buck than nabbing a potential 3rd round draft pick that has fallen down the board. I mean they did that with Jullian granted staying within their pool dollars and that worked out pretty well so the value worked in actual practice. Personally I think they are missing out on opportunities there. Somewhat in their defense you can see how it impacted negotiations for their first round pick. They have never gone over and have set no precedent for going over so the money that was there was the money that was there. Still they should be thinking that through IMO. What are opportunities lost versus gained. The data should be there for the odds of hitting on those types of picks and the more chances you give yourself the most likely you are to succeed.
  9. Dman
    IMO it would be nice if they could move Gallo off the roster. That would be an addition by subtraction trade it allows room for Larnach and Wallner who are comparable hitters and allows Gordon to come back on the 40 man without losing anyone. I am not in love with the Lane Thomas platoon idea but given the Twins have no right handed outfielder's close to ready if Washington isn't asking for something outrageous I could see that as a positive move for the team. Not sure if other teams would be willing to build a package around Severino or Prato or Helman or Williams or Stevenson type players but they are rule V guys with interesting stats. Probably would need more but they could also be good addins to get a deal done. Have to wait and see what the FO can do I guess.
  10. Dman
    I would think the Twins could let Elliot Soto go if they wanted to or essentially bench him. I don't know when Helman comes back but if it soon unless someone gets moved from St. Paul there does not appear to be room. Proabably hard to find playing time for everyone as it is. There also isn't much room in the AAA outfield either. Kind of wondering if some of these players could be deadline bait\addins. Will have to wait and see how things look after the deadline.
  11. Dman
    This is the time of year that pitchers deal with arm fatigue. It looks like the Twins tried to take it easy on Balazovic moving him to the pen and Headrick pitching him less innings recently but it seems like lot's of arms even at the MLB level are struggling more as we move into the second half of the season. I would expect more erratic starts from here on out for a fair number of arms. Seems to be part of the process.
  12. Dman
    Stevenson and Prato are red hot. I don't know why Stevenson picked Minnesota as his bat looks MLB ready and he has success at that level.. One bad year in 2021 otherwise the hit tool looks like it plays just fine. He is old for the level at 29 but it sure looks like he can play. Prato has always been an under dog favorite of mine. Really strong K rate, walk rate numbers and good slugging to go with it. He makes a lot of good contact and is batting .315 at AAA. I still think he is a diamond in the rough type of player. Garlick's bat has started to heat up again as well. Maybe he makes his way back to the Twins yet. I gave Lee plenty of grief for not looking that great to start the year. He is making me eat my words. His batting average is almost .300 and his OPS almost .850. Those are elite numbers for that level and he is doing that in his first pro year. I don't think I have seen a college prospect start at AA and do that well for at least half a season. It would be nice if they found room at AAA to see how he does there but they could promote him from AA as his overall batting line is good enough to promote him from AA if they want\need to. The scouts said he had an advanced bat and he is proving them right. Lee is the real deal.
  13. Dman
    He needed a fresh start but man did we get taken by Baltimore. Ouch! Doesn't seem like a huge needle mover to me. I suppose Lopez will be lights out in Miami that seems to be the way things have been going for us these days.
  14. Dman
    He has the best stats of any reliever in St Paul but I think he gets no love because of his fastball. He also isn't on the 40 man and there isn't really room without dropping someone. I think he will have to wait for next year to get his shot unless more injuries occur. With Thielbar on the way back and Moran still up and Headrick on the 40 man he is going to have a tough time cracking the 40 man as a lefty reliever that doesn't really have elite stuff. If the 40 man wasn't an issue I bet we would have seen him at the MLB level by now.
  15. Dman
    Yeah he is the most well rounded bat of all the catching prospects. 15% walk rate. 17% K rate and .500 Slugging with the most HR's of all the catcher's not named Camargo. His balanced line means he has a really good chance to be successful as he moves up. The only other catcher with a similar profile would be Olivar who is one level behind him but is younger at only 21. I don't know what his defense is like but with that bat it just needs to be passable. Heck of a pickup for an 11th round pick.
  16. Dman
    He is the definition of a free swinger and nobody gets worse calls at the plate than Kirilloff. Umps always expand the zone on the kid not sure what he did but someone should look into it. At any rate I don't think there is pitch he cannot hit as he covers the entire zone well. Would be nice to see him go pull side a bit more but i get that he likes to wait as long as possible to swing. I think as he gets more and more used to MLB pitching he only gets better and better. I still think it is a special bat. Hope he keeps it up.
  17. Dman
    Yeah gotta agree with the Stevenson comments. He has been a monster bat all season. Nothing more he can do there. He has had some success in the majors as well but was never given much time there. It is a tough transition. If he was right handed he might have a shot. Seems like a long shot though considering all the guys in front of him. He deserves another shot at the MLB level I wonder if the Twins could trade him to Oakland or some other team for cash or something if they agreed to play him at the MLB level. Speaking of right handed bats the Twins should move Rosario up to AA. He has passed Tanner Schobel for OPS in the Midwest league stats and .04 points out of first place for the OPS lead. Time to move the kid up so he can get used to the much better pitching at AA. He might struggle there but at least by next year he could be a viable option at the MLB level if he gets his bat going there. And we don't have another right handed outfield bat close to ready so they should keep him moving. Cardenas is top 10 for OPS now as well one spot ahead of Rodriguez. He has been a solid bat all year long and he has heated up the last couple of games. He could stand to move up as well and Olivar is ready to move to High A it would be a good swap to keep both players more challenged. Time to make some moves. Hopefully they do.
  18. Dman
    I think they do need to move an outfielder and I wish they could move Gallo. Early in it looked like it was going to be a decent signing but I think I would rather have Nick Gordon in the box than the Gallo that is showing up these days. If the Twins plan to keep just 18 position players on the 40 man then someone needs to be moved before Gordon comes back to make room. They still technically have one 40 man spot open when they move De Leon to the 60 day IL. I assume that spot will be used by Kuechel or another reliever they pick up. Depending on Stewarts status he could be moved to the 60 IL as well but if that is the case they would need a replacement arm for him as well. They could try to run Sands or Winder through waivers and see if they make it or not but odds are Oakland or KC would grab them so it would be risky. With Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, Wallner, Gordon they have too many lefty outfielders which is why many on this board questioned the Gallo signing to begin with. They can still carry them all if they want to but removing one would be a good thing IMO. Gordon and Gallo would be the most expendable IMO. They still lead the division so can't imagine they trade Kepler as they can just wait until the end of the season to do that and they might need his defense and his bat is heating up. Trading Wallner or Larnach seems like it might end up like trading Steer and CES. They are young and cheap and should produce as well as Gallo or Kepler at the plate so it would take a monster deal to move one of them IMO. When it is time for Gordon to come off the 60 day if Gallo isn't gone IMO they should consider bumping Gallo off the roster. That is my two cents.
  19. Dman
    Yeah I agree with you. I am not aware of any of those late picked high schoolers turning into anything but there must be a few that have. Still it must be small because it isn't a strategy a lot of team use IMO. When the draft 30 or 40 rounds the Twins always took several high schoolers late and none of them signed. It fun to hold out hope but it doesn't happen often and works out even less as I would think there would be more stuff out there about those types of picks and I don't remember seeing anything at all on one of those working out.
  20. Dman
    As others have said it could be the medicals it just seems a bit unlikely as they essentially knew about the hip impingment issue and it doesn't look like it has affected Jenkins in any way. Maybe there is more there after having the physical? I agree both ways it doesn't seem like holding this up over a few hundred thousand dollars should make much of a difference since the money is there. Still Jenkins was projected to go where he went and I have to believe the Twins are offering slot as they are setup to offer that. Like you said likely more to this than meets the eye and there have been virtually no rumors about this all they way through to today. It is just that given Boras's history it seems likely something on his end. I think slot is a fair del and if the Twins aren't offering that then I can see why Boras would be working to get his client to that level. If he is just looking to add a little more money I think he should just take the deal if offered slot. It is a good one with life changing money for his client.
  21. Dman
    Just based on reading articles Oakland didn't want to go over slot. Cinci had the money with extra picks so they could have gone over. Would Oakland have been willing to go up $500,000 just to get him to 7M? then would have to go beyond that if he wants to have the Twins pay more than slot. I am just saying I don't see that he has much of an argument to go over slot. The Twins are set up to give him slot and generally don't play games going under. Maybe they are squeezing him I have no idea but the odds seem slim that is the holdup. They would need to shave at least $500,000 and possibly more to sign pick 20 so that seems like the longest of long shots to me. Odds are this seems about going over with the Boras logic he could have been a number 1 pick in any other draft.
  22. Dman
    And yet two of those picks signed for under slot and Jenkins floor was Cincinnati or below. Passing on 7M could be a disaster as we have seen happen to others that don't take deals. Take slot it is a solid deal for your client. Having to sweat out not getting injured and end up getting picked top 4 next year and passing on life changing money for a few dollars. I would fire that agent. Just my opinion though.
  23. Dman
    Not sure Boras has much leverage for an over slot deal. Jenkins was never seen as top three and he and Clark were a virtual tie for 4th and 5th and the draft let us know who teams preferred and it was Clark. If the Twins didn't grab him at 5 Oakland wasn't going over slot to sign him as they had an under slot deal all setup. Cincinnati might have signed him but they had a good deal lined up as well so no sure thing they would have wanted to go over slot there. he could have fallen way down if the Twins didn't take him. I think Boras should take slot and thank his lucky stars the Twins actually picked him there.
  24. Dman
    Yeah I think most years they would have left him at High A all year but they needed to move someone up and he has the most experience of any pitcher other than Paredes who doesn't throw real hard and doesn't have the K rate Nowlin does either.
  25. Dman
    Happy to see the Twins putting some distance from the .500 mark. They were always going to need a run to push forward and now lets hope they have the mojo to sustain a division winning second half. Its a lot more fun to watch when the team is winning games especially the close ones. Felt bad for Maeda the pen just loves to sabotage any possible win when he pitches great. Nice to see him pitch well now the Twins have to find a way to solve Kirby. Seattle has some good pitching it is surprising they aren't doing a bit better themselves. Twins are going to need more wins so hopefully they find a way to take this series and keep things rolling from there.
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