Dman

Call me overly optimistic but his walk rate gives me hope. As noted he does need to make more contact as the K rate is too high. Still he feels like a tweak away from being just fine. I don't see star player value but I think he can be league average or better in time. Just a few more hits and few less whiffs and his line looks much better at the MLB level. I am close to giving up on Larnach but there still is time for him to turn things around. If doesn't then with Rosario and Rodriguez almost ready and Walker Jenkins possibly not far behind there will be other options soon enough. 2024 feels like his make or break year as a Twin and possibly his career. Hopefully he conquers the things holding him back.

From what I have read it sounds like prospect cost for Cease is very high. It looks like they want Sale like return if not slightly better. Still per MLB trade rumors they expect a trade to happen. If they get that trade right the White Sox could rebuild fairly quickly.

Nicely done! Enjoyed the recap of the beginning of the season. 🙂

Yeah that was my thought as well. He is young and it gives him a little more time at the complex in better weather before heading to cold Cedar Rapids. Lot's of hitters with slow starts the first few months in Cedar Rapids. I can see where Jamie is coming from though as it likely doesn't make much difference where they start him as he has an advanced bat and really good makeup, so I doubt he struggles there. AA is the larger jump as the offspeed\breaking ball stuff is significantly better at that level. Personally I think they hold him back as they generally aren't in a hurry to move high school drafted players quickly through the system. We'll find out 4 months from now. EDIT: That being said there isn't much for outfield talent at High A right now with Fedko (balanced line), McCusker (Super High K rate, Elite slugging), Urbina (No power, Plus Low average),, and possibly Aguiar who might still need time at low A the only ones at that level.

It would be nice if the Twins made a significant move early, but they have generally done well making moves late(r) in the offseason. I keep checking MLB trade rumors, but know nothing is likely to happen until the end of January or later. I'm fine with that if they can find another decent starter to round out the rotation. Beyond that I am somewhat ambivalent. Will they trade Polanco and or Farmer? Will they acquire another player for center field or stick with what they have? Will they add an arm to the pen? Hard to know what they might do, but I think another quality starter needs to happen. Call me crazy, but I still believe in Larnach. It is getting late though. I kind of thought last year was his make or break year and now we head into 2024. As things stand Emmanual Rodriguez is one good half season away from passing him so he needs to bring it. Hopefully this is the year.

Polo isn't going to pry away one of Seattle's young starters and I don't think Seattle needs to trade for Polanco if they can get Merrifield. Also I don't love the idea of giving Seattle a potent, pretty clutch bat, without something big coming back. If it isn't pitching I don't see a deal getting done there. They don't have another pitcher beyond Hancock in their system in the top 10 and other than Berroa no one even even above High A in their top 30. I just don't see how Seattle can give up pitching or be the trade partner the Twins are looking for. I think the Twins end up moving him somewhere else if they move him at all.

Trading for pitching is always dangerous so it is hard to feel confident about those types of trades. Arms just break down faster than bats. Still Arms are super important come playoff time. You need dominant arms to win the World Series. I just hope whatever risk they take it works out well for the Twins.

Man the Dodgers are pushing all their chips in this year. With Otani's deferred money they should be able to do this year after year for a while. They are going to be a tough team to beat for quite some time.

Lots of ways to look at this. This Twins team is in contention mode so moving Polanco is not an easy proposition. There is room in the infield especially if they move Farmer to mix and match players and if someone gets hurt then it is even easier to find time for everyone. The tough part about trading Polanco is the Twins need\would like a return that improves the current MLB roster as much as keeping him. It feels like it would take an overpay for another team to acquire Polanco and given his injury history and age I just don't think another team is going to give the Twins enough to move him if that is how the FO feels about him. Another way to look at this is if the Twins keep Farmer they still have a right handed Platoon bat for Jullien and a player who can play all the infield positions and possibly left field if needed. In this scenario then you could feel free to try and gain extra value in a trade mainly for prospects. It is the Tampa\Oakland\Cleveland method of trading high and dumping salary and hoping younger players can fill in (i.e. Lee, Prato, Helman, Goodrum) as depth if needed. As noted in the article I still think Jorge has a potent bat. A difference making playoff bat. It would be tough to see him moved. Will just have to wait and see what offers the Twins get and if anything looks good enough to move him.

Only Staumont. Alexy is on a minor league deal and Jensen has options left so he doesn't have to be on the 26 man. Like others have said not a huge deal grabbing these arms, but Alexy and Jensen have been pretty bad for a pretty long time. I get taking chances but those two are super long shots. The Twins have had decent luck teaching guys a sweeper. Maybe that is the plan for these two? I'm just curious why they are going with lack of control guys since this FO's MO is control above pretty much anything else.

I agree Nick and I don't feel like they have had much success with these types of arms in the past. They traded LaMonte Wade for Shaun Anderson whom they let go that very same season as they couldn't get him to throw strikes. No one else was able to help him either. The Twins tried to get McGill going and his 1.59 WHIP finally improved a little when he went to Milwaukee, but the Twins never fixed him. They tried fixing Vallimont for years and never could. They also never got Strotman fixed either. I bet if you dig there are even more arms like this that never panned out. I get it. , Hard throwers are hard to come by and a lot of them struggle with control, but it feels ;like about 90% of the time nothing changes. They are who they are. They just don't get much better no matter how many teams try and change them. It also seems odd that in the draft they select most pitchers based on their control and not velocity at all. I always thought mainly because it was easier to add velocity than control. In the grand scheme the guy they recently picked up can go on waivers if he doesn't work out and all were low risk financial moves. It's not a huge deal. It just seems odd to me that these are types of arms they would focus on grabbing.

Yeah below is part of what Fangraphs had to say about him last year and looking at his numbers it seems accurate. There's always a chance something clicks but not even having an average second offering feels like a longer way to go than most arms. "Lackluster command of his secondaries and a violently effortful delivery that features a long arm action were perhaps always likely to push him to the ‘pen. Even though none of those pitches are very good, it’s possible Jensen’s repertoire depth will enable him to work in a multi-inning relief role. He certainly has the stamina to sustain plus velocity for multiple innings, but most big league relievers have at least two plus pitches, and he has been searching for a second one for a while now."

I get the sense that Jensen will end up on waivers again, but I get picking him up since he has two options left and throws hard. The problem is he appears to be a one pitch pitcher unless something has recently changed. From what I read if he can find a second pitch that he can control he will be a solid pen arm, but he has had quite a while to get there and hasn't yet. Not an arm I would want clogging the 40 man, but likely someone they can try and get through waivers at some point. Let the games begin.

Those look like two good gets. Would be nice if the hit tools were plus, but at that age its all a crap shoot anyway. I like that the Twins go for the high upside athletes but even most of those never make it. Seems like almost as many no namer's make it. As said above it would be nice if the Twins could find a few more arms at the Intnl level to supplement the farm. Always nice to add more talent and I hope they hit on these guys.

Last year AAA's tighter zone really made a lot of pitchers struggle, but not Funderburk. His 13/9 K rate and the fact his ERA, FIP and xFIP are all close and shows he has been consistently good. MLB is a different animal though and he will get dissected as hitters wait for certain pitches in certain counts, Still he has been pretty rock solid the last two years. He has three options remaining and appears to be their best lefty at this point so unless he falter's he looks like a solid bullpen piece. I mean Rocco trusted him with high leverage almost right out the gate so they like his stuff. The only issue is sample size is too small at the MLB level. We will know more once he has a full season under his belt.

I think this is pretty spot on. I'm not sure Polanco by himself nets a number 5 starter from another team without adding something to the mix. Prospect wise you are likely looking in the 5-10 spots of other teams top 30. I do think Miami would like to get something done with the Twins as things worked out well last time and Polanco's offensive skillset would make Miami a better team. They could move Arraez to 1st and mix and match their infield and DH spot. Still if the Marlins are moving another starter in a Polanco deal it seems like they would at minimum need a AAA starter to replace what they would be losing as they don't have ton of depth themselves. I don't see Miami dealing Luzardo without exacting a heavy price and I don't think the Twins would be willing to overpay, but this FO has surprised before. Like you I see Cabrera and Meyer as more likely options. Cabrera is tricky as they will likely want some close to MLB pitching along with Polanco so that means they would need Festa or SWR included and likely other pieces from Miami. Not sure how the Twins feel about Cabrera versus Festa as is and the trade likely wouldn't be a needle mover IMO. I don't know how Miami or the Twins view Max Meyer. Is he still a starter or more likely a pen arm ala Duran? Might be too much risk both ways to get a deal done there. Again as you stated Polanco has pretty significant win now value to the Twins as is. Lewis has never played a full year at the MLB level and they can move infield pieces around to keep Polanco in the lineup as is. He takes good at bats and is good in clutch situations. Lee might be an option next year or he might struggle all year at AAA we have no idea, but if he is lighting it up they could always deal Polanco at the deadline. It just seems hard to see one of those teams wanting\needing Polanco more than the Twins and giving up something more meaningful than just keeping him, but who knows. Maybe once the pressure is on another team will cave. Just have to wait and see.

I agree with this. My biggest question was why use up a 40 man spot on such a long shot player? Having the option does help as he doesn't have to take up a 26 man spot. Still there are arms as good or better who will be signed to a Minor league deal. It is an odd gamble IMO, but I have to assume the Twins have more intel on his rehab\recovery and feel good about his chances or they wouldn't have signed him to a MLB deal. Also they might have felt they needed to get an MLB deal done as he had other MiLB deals already and might not have chosen the Twins? Hard to say why they felt the need to add him but based on past performance I don't love the odds of this working out. As others have said not a terrible signing or anything but it is a curious move for a FO that likes to save 40 spots to claim players as they fall off rosters and try and pass them through waivers. They are going to move one if not both of Polanco and Farmer and I don't see them adding a Center fielder or 1st Baseman in Free agency so they likely have enough spots to play with. I just would have liked a minor league deal for such a high risk move. I mean if the Royals who know him best weren't willing to take him back for 2M that kind of says it all for me.

Depth is a good thing to have we saw how it helped propel the Twins to a division win while other division teams stumbled at the end of the season. Injuries are going to happen and it is a good idea to have as many solid options as possible if a starter is out for an extended amount of time. This team on offense has quite a number of question marks going into the season. Can Lewis stay healthy for an entire year? Can Kirilloff stay healthy an entire year and be productive at the plate? Is Wallner for real or just able to get by against teams that weren't playing well down the stretch and he has trouble against lefties and was protected at times. Can Jullien defend well at 2nd or is he really a 1st baseman DH? Will Correa be better with the bat or he is already in decline? Can Buxton return even close to form at the plate? Can Polanco stay healthy? Will Larnach ever hit well enough against breaking balls to be a MLB option in left? Is the new Max for real or like Wallner did he feast on lessor competition? Will Miranda be back or is he a AAAA player? There is risk and uncertainty all around this roster IMO. There is some depth at AAA but they all have question marks. Lee looks a bit Polanco like but isn't ready just yet, he needs more experience IMO. Severino's numbers aren't that far off from Wallner at AA and AAA but he walks even less than Wallner. Camargo has power but a fair bit of swing of miss. Still he can't be much worse than Vasquez last year. Martin has minimal power but has been an onbase machine in the past. Not sure it all translates to the MLB level though and he needs more time to be ready as well. He hasn't played a full season in a while either. Prato has nice solid numbers but his slow start last year has many wondering if those numbers are real or outliers. So yeah I agree with the OP that there is a lot risk in the offense as constructed. Take away the veteran production of Polanco and Kepler and it does get riskier. I don't see a ton of depth in the outfield for this team unless you believe in Larnach, Martin and Keirsey. The team played without Polanco for the better part of the year but played better when he came back. I guess if they just absolutely had to trade one guy it would be Polanco for me, as there is more infield depth. If your going big and trading Jullien or Lee or both I think that is going to be hard to replace. With Jullien's eye at the plate and power to all fields The odds are good he remains successful. Will he grow into an All Star type player? hard to say so early but he came close to matching Arraez's production in his first year and he takes good at bat's. He doesn't have the contact skills of Arraez as he K'd at a 30% rate last year but his power makes him a dangerous bat for any pitcher. We don't know what he have in Lee yet but like Polanco he can switch hit and has a nice K to walk ratio. He is super versatile in the field. Those types of players are hard to come by. In the end there is risk if they make a trade and there is still risk if they don't make a trade. Just have to hope the FO finds a way to make this team better rather than worse.

I am getting a little nervous about that as well. Still he was a league average bat last year and he can actually play shortstop although depending on the metric might be a bit below average there in the field. He can also play all infield positions including first base and he can play left field in a pinch as well. I still believe there are teams out there that could use his skill set and he is nice backup insurance for Short as well. I don't expect a heavy return but I still think they will be able to trade him. To your point though not sure how badly any particular team needs him so hard to say if they can make a deal or not.

I don't love the idea of giving Houston another big bat in Kepler when we likely will be competing against them in the playoffs. All things being equal though that looks like a good trade for the Twins. They get an elite defender with a righty bat and four years of control for one year of Kepler. They free up 10M to try and sign a replacement though it would likely cost more than 10M to find a comparable player with Kepler's level of defense. Still it would set the Twins up nicely for center for years to come. Wallner can play right if needed. Still I don't think I see Houston doing a deal like that. They have a high payroll and are going to be looking to resign some of their players. Having a cost controlled centerfield backup is a nice thing to have. Injuries to center fielders are common so I don't think they would let go of the depth and cost control for one year of Kepler IMO.

Maybe I don't understand how deferred money works but from what they mentioned on MLB trade rumors. Even though Ohtnai only gets 2M per year the money applied to the cap for those 10 years is 46M per year. So the team will likely still have to deal with cap penalties over the next ten years unless they go with younger players outside of Betts, Ohtani and Freeman etc. So it isn't all roses IMO. Then from 34 to 43 they actually have to pay the 68M per year to a player likely no longer playing for them. That is gonna hurt. With the 46M per year counting toward the cap it seems like they get dinged twice in this deal if you ask me. Still adding the best player in baseball to an already stacked team should help the Dodgers get over the world series hump at least if those players stay healthy.

I have the same issue with all the video's. If you just skip ahead and then go back to the beginning it won't automatically move onto the next video after 45 seconds. Sometime a popup will actually come up asking if you want to keep viewing but it closes so quick you can't click on it before it moves to the next video. Just move it forward and then back to the beginning and all will be well.

Thanks for the deeper look!! So they are just hiding him in left then and his bat and speed on the bases are his main skillset. He is going to need to add power then if he wants to be noticed and an option for left. He is a really good contact hitter just not sure that will be enough in todays game especially with suspect defense.

I am with those that want a difference making return to move him. When healthy he is essentially an 800 OPS bat with good plate discipline. He can hit from both sides and while his defense holds him back some he isn't a huge liability out there either. I don't know what the Twins can get for Polanco and he might mean more to the team than what he is worth in trade. The Twins were wise not to give Kepler away last year I hope they feel the same way about Polanco. If he can't bring back something that can help this years team it seems more prudent to keep him. They can shift guys around if needed. If he can bring back something valuable then the Twins have the depth to move him. IMO to get enough value back they would likely need to trade Polanco for Prospects as the trading team would give up more future value for present value. Then the Twins could allocate the money saved to get something else in Free Agency with that saved money. While I get that strategy it could backfire because prospects fail. It would be better to get an MLB return if you ask me. Will have to wait and see if some team really wants him and is willing to give up something the Twins need.

I remember him having that hot spring and thinking the Twins had something. He started off well and that collision in the outfield where he got the concussion was the beginning of the end. Felt so bad for the guy. Finally looks like things are breaking his way then back to AAA never to make it back to the big's. Sad story.