Dman

I was just thinking that if they are building him back to be a starter how many innings can they put on his arm this year? If in the pen he can pitch can all year NP and likely be ready for a MLB role this year. If starting it feels like that all gets pushed back IMO. Maybe not, but fresh off TJ they will likely take things slow. I want him to get to MLB as soon as possible and am not worried about years of control. Even if he gets to MLB this year he will be an old man in MLB years by the time team control is up.

Yeah the placeholder idea is appealing for the right price. Hard to say if Miranda will be ready to start the season and Severino and Lee need more time in AAA as well so that spot could be light when lefties pitch. Relying on young bats to start the season generally is a bad idea as there is no way to know how they will perform. It will be interesting to see what moves the Twins make this offseason. There are ways there could be room for Solano but other players would need to be traded or let go first IMO.

Personally I was hoping they would move him to the pen sooner rather than later to add another hard throwing top end guy to solidify possibly the teams greatest weakness. If he is effective the first couple of months he could help the team faster that way. And yet I get that they likely don't want to throw away a guy that has 4 average to above average pitches in there unless the arm can't take it. He is 26 to start the year next year so it will be interesting how they handle him. I would guess your Louie Varland comparison is spot on for Canterino.

All of these great reports have me excited, but I need to see a full season to be more comfortable with the hype. As mentioned by others Twins were very fortunate to get pick number 5 in a five player draft. A draft where any of the top 5 could have gone 1-1 in other years. Still a long ways to go though.

I do agree with the premise of this article that Solano's numbers will not be easy to replace. There was a moment there around mid season where he was around an .800 OPS and looking like a close Arraez replacement. He also was a tough out in clutch situations and a dangerous bat even with two strikes. His .282 BA shows he can hit but most of those hits were singles. He also doesn't hit for much power so pitchers had a tendency to go right after him not fearing he would do much damage. The main issues though are that he doesn't have much positional flexibility and he is going to be 36 next year. Also there isn't going to be much 40 man room left after the Twins add Martin, Camargo, Rodriguez and Severino to the 40 man. The Twins might also try to lower payroll until the TV deal is figured out and I think Solano will have earned a raise after what he did this past year. So all of those things seem like strikes against bringing him back. I think he has a couple of good years left in that bat if healthy and put in good platoon spots he can still be very effective, but I don't see him as a good fit for the Twins who have a lot of young bats coming up. They might not be able to instantly replace Solano's production but I think they can get close and they need opportunities to play as well. I was happily surprised by what Solano brought to the team last year, but I still think it is time to move on.

I was hesitant on the Jenkins pick because he didn't get the love the other four guys got leading up to the draft. So in my mind he comes better than advertised in his SSS. I can't say I am ready to jump to super star status just yet, but love to see people outside the org this excited about him. For me I need to see a full season before I can get as giddy\gushy as these guys are. They get to see a lot of players though so for them to be this high on Jenkins definitely means something IMO. However. I am a Minnesotan and need a bit more time to make sure he can live up to the hype before being a true believer.

I wrote earlier that I felt he had a good thing going in MN and Boston is not an easy place to hide like Minnesota. I know he is well thought of league wide so I hope the Twins keep him and Falvey together to see if they can create some long term success together.

Nice to see the MVP with a good week. I am a big believer in Rosario's bat. Still some work to do with the K rate and getting more of those flies to left over the fence, but he has improved every year and with his breakout year this year hoping he is ready to tackle AA next year. Carr was not really on my radar as he is older, He had an excellent season at High A but he was old for the level. If his stuff translates to AA and AAA though that would be big since he is a lefty. I am rooting for him but the odds are long there. Cossetti is bumming me out a bit, but adding in fall league makes it a looong season for a catcher. He has been dominant through high A but AA is a different animal so I hope he can rise to the challenge next year. No one is having a Jullien type Fall League experience but it should help all them be better players in the end.

It looked like Alcala was throwing a Sweeper when he came back and if he just limits the HR's and harder contact he could be a really good reliever. If he makes it he will need to produce as this seems like the last year they could wait on him to get better. I think the more he can stay away from using his fastball or making it tougher to hit the better he will be. Not sure why Luplow isn't gone already, but he will be. I go back and forth on Gordon. His hit tool has always come around at every level. If he is a fairly consistent .800 OPS hitter that would be important for this team. If he is just going to OPS .750 or less he feels more like a liability than asset to me. Guessing they do everything they can to keep him on the 40 man to give him one more year, but we will see.

I guess I am not convinced the Twins will come up with another Pablo Lopez type deal this offseason. With Paddocks return and if they can resign Maeda I think the Rotation moves are likely smaller this year. I don't know if the TV contract stuff is going to resolve itself or not yet but with that uncertainty I have to believe they look long and hard at Trading Polanco and possibly even Kepler if the returns are half way decent. I would look to build a deal around one of them for pitching if possible. I can't see them trading Jeffers for pitching at this time. Catcher is such an important position and getting offense from that position such a bonus to the lineup it would take a big deal to get that done IMO. An all around skilled catcher is as rare as a high end pitcher. I would stick with Jeffers for now. I don't see Castro being enough to be the main piece in a deal. It would be rare for a utility player to fetch much on the market. I guess Zobrist was a player able to bring back good returns but I don't think Castro is at that level just yet. If a team was willing to overpay for Willie I would take that deal in a heartbeat, but I don't see it happening. I think he has more value to the Twins than anything he could bring back in a trade. Larnach is a wild card for me. I think he is better than the numbers indicate right now. I think he is a solid defender in left and that his power will play eventually. I wouldn't sell low on Larnach but again if a team came with a solid offer for what I think he could\should be then I would take it. He isn't a great fit for the current roster and if he brought back more pitching that would be helpful. Hard to day what will develop on the trade market but I have to believe the Twins will make some trades this offseason and hopefully they can land another good arm or two in those deals.

I think the Red Sox would be lucky to get him. He is a good negotiator. I can't think of a contract ever put together like he was able to do with Buxton. Granted Buxton wanted to be here, but Levine didn't give him super star money to stay and given the way things are playing out that was a smart play. I did think Buxton would have stayed healthy longer but that is the risk you take from both sides. I guess I don't know why he would want to go to Boston. The pay increase would be nice but the pressure he will face there will be a lot larger than Minnesota. I believe he is coming off of three division tiles out of 6 years in Minnesota so if he stays he could be in Minnesota for a while. if he does well in Boston it would really put him on the map and they have money to spend so he should be able to build a good team quickly. He has the skills and experience to do well there, but if he doesn't deliver fairly quickly he will be out and it won't be easy to get back in. Mediocrity is not an option in Boston. Odds are he gets offered and takes the job, but we will see.

I have De Leon, Luplow, Ortega, and Stevenson off the 40 man for sure. Gordon is far from a certainty IMO, but if they don't see Balazovic as a starter and if his stuff isn't as good as Henriquez, Moran and Alcala he could be next in line to be moved if room is needed. I think you need to keep in mind there still could be trades of Farmer, Polanco or Kepler especially if the Twins need to trim payroll and they also need to backfill pitching so Maeda could be back as could Pagan if they can't find anything better at their price points. They also might want to add more proven arms to the pen. Hard to say. Still I don't think Jordy is a for sure gonner, but I agree he is on the bubble.

I really like what Castro brings to the team. Solid defense where ever he plays and a switch hitter that can hold his own at the plate. He also can steal bases. They need to bring him back IMO. Thielbar looks like he might finally be slowing down, but we don't really have anyone better and he is a much needed lefty so he will be back. I go back and forth on Alcala and Gordon. They have shown flashes but have been far from consistent to this point. I hate giving up on guys but I don't know what the Twins will do. I tend to agree with @2wins87 the FO likely wants to give those two one more shot, but hard to say for sure. I think Farmer has more trade value than most years. The FA market is light on SS talent this year. Any team looking for help there might pony up more than normal for Farmer. With Castro, and Lewis able to sub for Correa at short they could move on from Farmer if the price is right. The timeline for Lee is unknown but odds are he could be a mid year option and he can play short as well. If they are keeping Polanco it feels like someone has to go and Farmer seems the most likely to me. Still if the trade offers are poor maybe they just hang onto him until the deadline next year as he is an important piece especially if injuries occur. As always it will be interesting to see what the Twins ultimately do.

Yeah Kiersey is a tough one to peg right now. The .300 BA at AA indicates he can really hit and he slugged pretty well at that level as well. Still the numbers fell off in AAA and would only likely get worse at the MLB level. He needs more time to adjust to breaking stuff and he has a low walk rate which doesn't bode well for future MLB success IMO. I don't think you compare him to MAT though as he is a righty. The comparison is Gordon who also doesn't walk much and seems to be pegged mainly in a center field role. They are similar hitters IMO although I think Gordon is slightly better. Keirsey is a faster runner with 31 Steals last year and plays pretty elite centerfield defense. Like Stevenson that would be a nice thing to have off the bench late in close games and he has all three options left so you can move him up and down as the team has various needs. You would be gaining another good\elite defender who hits righties better than Lefties with a lot of roster flexibility if better options present themselves. You say those types are easy to find but until recently the Twins haven't seemed to be able find them and they almost weren't even able to get MAT last year until KC caved. Still I will agree there is a decent chance Kiersey doesn't get picked in Rule V as it is hard to tell if the bat will play and the low walk rate gives him little to work with at the MLB level. Odds are they don't add him but there is case to be made IMO.

Hoping that with Helman's limited playing time last year they can hide him one more year in AAA. Still if I am Helman and looking at the logjam in the infield it might be best to see if KC, Oakland, Anaheim or Chicago have room for me in minor league FA. He is isn't exactly young so can't really afford to wait too long for his shot.

Yeah I feel like they banked on Moran, Winder, Sands, Balazovic and maybe Henriquez to step up in 2023 and justify their 40 man spots and none of them really did. I know bullpen arms are variable year to year but I don't think they carry all those questionable arms on the 40 man next year. And yet they might be able to find room to give them one more year to develop. Hard to say, but I agree with you that they should do more to solidify the relief arms on the 40 man. Hopefully they can work out some trades to get better there. At the end of 2024 they will have to add more arms like Festa, Raya maybe Ohl, Nowlin, McCleod so those bubble guys don't have long to get it together.

Yeah but they are going to need to add Miranda and Gordon back to the 40 man and so it isn't going to be the same 40 man that is there right now once the 60 day IL's come back on. Not sure what they do with Taylor. His .700 OPS seems replaceable but his defense won't be as easy to replace. Maybe Martin, Castro, Buxton can fill it next year hard to say how the Twins feel but if he is gone it does open up space for all four pretty easily. Even after dropping De Leon, Ortega and Pagan they need room for Alcala and Funderburk (who I have replacing Ortega). Unless they move on from one or two of Henriquez, Sands, Balazovic, Winder it looks tight once they likely add a vet or two this offseason. I think it is tighter than you are realizing.

I will say I was mildly surprised that he sounded genuine about wanting to be back. Still most every player likes to stay in the same place as long as possible to keep their family in the same place and so they pretty much always say they would like to stay until a better offer comes around,. I think he will be highly sought after this offseason and I don't see a ton of financial flexibility for the club with Pablo's contract taking hold and Correa and Buxton's Salaries things are getting tighter on the payroll end. He should easily get 25M to 30M per year and I think he can get three years with maybe an option for four. That seems high for the Twins. For me I don't see a deal getting done but then I didn't see the Correa deal working out either so it could happen but it is a long shot IMO. FWIW I would like to have Sonny back. Really good leadership, not afraid to speak his mind and tireless worker toward perfection he is an asset that will be sorely missed if he leaves. Those are big shoes to fill if he isn't here next year, but hopefully this team takes it up another notch regardless of what happens with Sonny.

I have Emmanuel Rodriguez, Camargo, Martin and Severino being added. Depending on who the Twins want to keep and or can keep there really is only room for three easy adds on the 40 man as I see it. Rodriguez can replace Gallo, Severino can replace Solano and Martin can replace Celestino. Finding a spot to add Camargo requires removing one of MAT, Gordon, or Larnach and or possibly Farmer depending on how the Twins feel about their shortstop options. Camargo feels like a must add though so they will find room. Severino looks like a tough add with the K rate but he was one of the minor league leaders in HR's and the Twins love their power bats. I just can't see them not adding him despite some defensive warts and the K rate issue. He also is a switch hitter which is nice flexibility for late inning matchups. He had a high BABIP but a good average at AA. The numbers dipped at AAA but the slugging was consistent. I think they add him this year. Martin and Celestino are too similar to keep both players IMO. I like Celestino's batting line except for slugging. I still think he makes for a good 4th outfielder but so does Martin and Martin can play the infield and has all three option years left and is an excellent hitter with a good to great OBP as well. If one guy has to go it looks like Celestino to me. Rodriguez for Gallo is an easy choice. If he gets the K rate down Rodriguez has super star potential with the bat and plays good D as well. Gallo did nothing for the team after the first month of the season. This one is the easiest add IMO. Dark horse candidates would be Prato and Kiersey. I don't know how many people have looked at Prato's AAA numbers but they are very Brooks Lee like only better. He had one down month out of 4 at AAA and ended with a .990 OPS. He looks very Jullien like although not as much power but a very balanced K and Walk rate ala Lamonte Wade and other players who made it to pro ball. Yeah that first two months at AA might give some pause but to ignore that outstanding 4 months for a slow start seems dumb to me. This guy can hit and knows the zone if he isn't added and I am a bottom feeding team this is exactly the kind of player to take a gamble on. Trading Kiersey out for Gordon makes some sense to me as well. I think Gordon has the better hit tool but is he ever going to have an .800 OPS season or even a .775 OPS season? If not then I think Kiersey can put up close to at least a .700 OPS in the majors and his Defense is better than Gordons and they could move him back and forth as he would have 3 option years left. If you really believe in Gordon then maybe not a good idea but if you value flexibility and excellent defense I think moving on from Gordon and adding Kiersey makes a lot of sense. Some tough decision as always and it will be interesting to see what they decide.

That was very informative. Really appreciate the work put in on the article. Thanks for the great read!

I feel the same way about Polanco. They would have to get a valuable arm in trade to move him I would think as when healthy he is an All Star caliber player. With the Twins moving Celestino off the 40 man it might make it easier to keep both Farmer and Polanco going into the season if no one ponies up for a trade or if they feel the team is just better with them on it. Hard to say what they do but they appear to be in a good spot depth wise right now.

Yeah they should hang on to to Farmer. I think he could be a valuable trade chip if they decide to go that route. FA class looks weak for shortstops so any team(s) looking for depth or a one year gap stop might give up something decent in trade for Farmer. If they keep him they could try and trade him around the deadline if Lee looks ready.

Walker Jenkins I still like Jenkins at number 1. He has true 5 tool potential and he should have good power as he grows into his body. It is a small sample size, but he hasn’t been phased by the competition level so far. It is close but I still think Jenkins should be number 1.Brooks Lee Lee’s batting line looks very balanced. He has started to get to more home run power and the only issue at AAA has been his BABIP is low and thus his batting average is very low. Still, he is only striking out 16% of the time so he is connecting but will need to find ways to barrel up more balls it looks like. You can easily argue that Lee belongs at number 1 as he is the only player, I know of that made it all the way to AAA in his first full Minor league season. I think he could use more tEmmanuel Rodriguez I have been a bit down on Rodriguez but I forget at times that he is only 20 years old and playing in a league with guys 2 to 3 years older than he is. He also led that league in OPS this year. He walks at a 20% clip and yet K’s at a near 30% clip. Still, he has almost as many extra base hits as singles and his .400 OBP is elite. He is still on a star in the making track with only that high K rate holding him back at this point. He really is a 5 tool player on par with Jenkins if he finds a Charlee Soto No idea how he turns out as high school arms are so tough to predict but he already throws hard and has ace upside. Most exciting pitcher in the system right now if you ask me. It is gonna take time to know if he belongs this high or not but for now, he has ace potential and a high velocity fastball so he is high up my list.Marco Raya He has great secondaries, but he hasn’t been able to get to 5 innings very often this year and he got rocked at AA when he first got there. If he makes it as a starter, he looks like Berrios lite to me so he should be a good one. If he can’t handle a starters load then should make it as a very good to elite reliever. Need to keep that arm healthy.David Festa Festa had a good year and is going to be in the running for Twins MiLB pitcher of the year. There were some ups and downs, but he still gets the K's and the FIP and xFIP look solid. Feels like he might need another something to be more than a 5th starter. He is going to be needed for depth next year, so I hope he is ready.Kala'i Rosario Yeah there are warts with the K rate and possibly defense but he led his league in HR’s and was top 5 in OPS. Like Rodriguez he was young for the level and they both need to work on striking out less. He was a clutch RBI bat as well and he led the league with 94 RBI’s next closest was 73. He can also take a walk and did so at a 14% clip. One of the only close to ready right-handed outfield bats he has the power to be a force at AA next year. He is underrated IMO as I have him higher than mostBrandon Winokur He is a 5 tool player projected for center or right field but also playing shortstop. He showed right quick that the power is for real and he also showed the swing and miss that had scouts worried about the bat. I assume the development team works with him on plate discipline a lot this year and next. Still despite his flaws his OPS was right there with Jenkins in the FCL. If the Twins can get the swing and miss down to acceptable levels he could be an All Star type player. If not, then he Tanner Schobel It is a tale of two halves for Schobel. He was a league leader at High A but it didn’t translate to AA at all. Like Lee he has excellent walk and K rates but is not making quality contact at AA. Feels like maybe an issue with approach at AA. He still looks like a solid hitter and defender but next year he needs to prove he belongs this high on the list.Luke Keaschall Keachall’s bat appears to be as advertised. In his small sample size he is hitting .288 with an .889 OPS. The walk and K rates are good as well so he makes good contact and has a good eye at the plate with a .441 OBP. He is a plus runner and if his power continues to show he might have plus power. Seems a bit like Spencer Steer except he can run better. It might be early to have him this high, but he hasn’t done anything to diminish his status so keeping him top 10 as he looks like an advancCory Lewis Lewis seems the favorite to be Twins MiLB pitcher of the year. The Stat line is outstanding for his first full season. WHIP at 1.00, ERA 2.49, 118 K’s in 101 IP. MLB.com doesn’t have him with a plus pitch but his results speak for him as he has been dominant all year no matter the level. Depending on how AA goes he could be top 5 for me, but for now I have him just outside the top 10.Danny De Andrade I haven’t had a chance to see him in action yet, but his stats for a 19 year old in A ball are impressive. From what I understand the defense is solid as well. Would like to see the average and slugging just a bit higher, but I still think he starts at High A next year as the walk and K rates are in line and he has good contact skills. Once the power kicks in he could be a special bat.Tanner Hall He hasn’t pitched yet, but he profiles better than Lewis to me as he has a plus Changeup with some scouts saying double plus. Hoping he can increase the fastball velocity and make that a plus pitch but will have to wait and see. He hangs his hat on control which generally helps pitchers move faster through the system. With no stats this is purely a projection pick.Ricardo Olivar He just has knack for getting hits (.285 BA) and is starting to hit for more power (SLG .452). He also plays catcher. He can take walks as he has a .400 OBP and he Strikes out only 20% of the time. In a normal year he would have been moved up midseason but there were too many good catchers at High A to move him up. He has a nice balanced line and if he just continues on his current path those numbers look really good for a catcher and if he gets even better he is a legit starting catcher at thAndrew Cossetti Maybe he is too old to be this high but his batting line has been so rock solid he looks like a special bat to me. He is stocky with a good catchers build and I think his defense is pretty solid as well. He seems similar to Jeffers in that he could be a fast mover. He hits for average, has a good OBP and has a really good slugging percentage as well. Personally, I think he is under-rated. Hopefully he gets moved to AA and make his way to AAA where he can be a legit prospect.Matt Canterino This might be high for an elite pen arm but he has the pitches and the velocity so I think he could be special out of the pen. Hopefully the arm holds up and his velocity holds. We need good pen arms and he has the kind of K rate that would be welcome in the Twins bullpen.Connor Prielipp Dropping Connor mainly because back to back TJ makes me wonder if his arm will ever hold up and I certainly no longer see him as a starter. He still has elite movement and could be a shut down pen arm so he slides down for me.Noah Miller I love watching Miller play defense. Picks the ball, makes the throws, gets in good position he feels elite defensively to me. His bat picked up the end of the season with an .800 OPS in August which is the best month he has produced in pro ball. It feels like the power is starting to come and I think that will help his BABIP luck which has been a tad low. He will only he 21 next year which is still young for the level. If the bat improves he likely ends up top 10. Will have to wait until Yunior Severino He likes to hang around the .900 OPS mark. Hits the ball hard and likes to hit HR's but his BABIP and K rate worry me. Still he is a power bat with a decent average. If the K rate were better I would have him much higher, but K rates at 30% in minor league ball generally don’t translate well to MLB. Still the contact rate is good enough that he belongs in the top 20 IMO.Austin Martin We are starting to see the old Martin and even the new and improved one as he has been hitting for more power. Doesn’t feel like there is room for him in the infield but he could be a nice right handed bat for Center field. I had Ben Ross at 21, He made it all the way to AA in his first pro year coming from a smaller school. He has learned to hit for power as he has 19 home runs. He could stand to get the average up and walk more. If he can do that he looks like a dangerous hitter to me. Jose Rodriguez at 22, Only big DSL player from last year holding his own in FCL. The power is not there this year but at least he is hitting the ball. I still think he could be a special bat but will have to wait and see. And Mercedes at 23 Off to a poor start in the FCL but not surprising as most first year DSL players struggle that first year. Still has a ton of tools, but want to make sure that hit tool is for real before moving him higher up the list.

I guess unsung means overlooked to me and I think the last three fit that description best. Pagan could also be included as there was so much negative energy around him he hasn't got much credit even now after a very good season in the pen. For once I agree with the pick in one of these articles. Castro looked like your typical hopeful 5 tool player missing the hit tool. So many of those players wash out because well they can't hit and defense only takes you so far. Watching him have a fast start in spring training gave me some hope but then he started K'ing a lot the end of spring. It looked like he was gonna be the same old Willie Castro. As I watched his great defense throughout the season and his bat warm up as the weather warmed up I saw a player that the Twins have needed for years. He can play solid defense anywhere on the field. He can bunt for base hits. He can steal bases. he is a switch hitter which also makes him a versatile pinch hitter. He is a do it all player that might sacrifice some offense from the starter he replaces but not much and his versatility seems unmatched right now. The TIger's have to be absolutely kicking themselves right now watching him become the all around player they were hoping he would become. Why Castro wanted to join the Twins with a very crowded infield doesn't make sense to me, but I am sure glad he picked the Twins as the only other player close to his all around skill level is Lewis. Thanks you Willie Castro for a great season and picking the Twins as the club you wanted to join!

Yeah I used to think those contact guys were almost rock solid to make it, but it is fools gold. Like you stated they hit the ball but get weak contact for outs instead of K's, but the result is the same. Guys who can take walks and wait for hitters pitches do better in the end. Making contact is obviously important but making solid contact is even more important and taking walks becomes important in the cat and mouse games that ensue to keep the pitcher off balance.