Dman

I too am hoping for an SWR resurgence. Not sure how many viewers caught Tom Froeming's video or SWR and his amazing plus stuff numbers, but if you haven't you should as it shows that if he can just get the fastball to a better spot he could be a real difference maker. This will be big year for SWR. If he wants to try and crack the MLB rotation.

Olivar was in the top 3 at the FSL in BA, OBP and OPS and 5th in Slugging. He is a top performer just like Rosario and Rodriguez were in there leagues. Would be real nice if he could stay behind the plate but his solid batting line should help him play where ever he fits best. Really impressed with his approach and he looks like another stud bat in the system. If he can handle the cold weather he should do well at high A I will be more interested about how he handles AA where the breaking stuff is more refined. If they want him work at catcher seems more likely he goes one level at a time but we will see.

I don't think the Twins have a Colt Keith type player ready for this year. His numbers are really good and he didn't get much of a signing bonus so he has to be thrilled with that deal. It is possible that maybe Schobel or Keaschall could fit that role if their bats come around but like you said the infield is pretty full so not sure the Twins would feel the need. Also possible that if Rodriguez takes the next step and gets the K's under control that the Twins might do a deal like that with him or Rosario, but their bats would need to be better than they are right now. It takes a special player and special circumstances to get one of those deals done IMO. Keith has a very solid batting line. It's a Brooks Lee line with better power. Hard to say how well he will do his first year at the MLB level but long term the odds look to me that he will be a better than average player. MLB is really tough as the pitching is really good, but his approach has been solid the whole way up. I think the Tigers got a great deal. They are a team on the rise.

I know Anthony Prato's numbers might be inflated by the auto strike zone in AAA, but the balanced K and Walk rates along with decent power sure makes him look like a major league bat. Yeah the brutal cold weather start leaves questions as does the higher level of offense at AAA, but I'm a bigger believer than most in Prato. This board has been excited about Miller since we saw his defense in his first spring training reps. Really, really hoping the bat comes around and he can be a long term answer at short. I think Ross had a pretty good first season considering he came from a small school and this was his first time facing really good competition all the time. He is showing power early but a little more contact would put him on very good path. Not sure why he isn't seen as having more potential at short as he runs well and has a strong arm, but he has good potential to break out next year IMO. I am also higher than most on Cossetti especially if he sticks behind the plate, but even if he doesn't his balanced batting line will play at first or DH as well. Hope he gets a shot at AA early but with Cardenas and Winkel there probably not room to start there unless injury. I love Ohl and always have. His start to pro ball was rough and I have to say I felt like he threw too many strikes, but he has amazing control and mixes his pitches well. I am excited to see how he does at AAA. He could be an over looked arm that plays an important role. Will have to see how he holds up. Lot's to like about all these guys but they need to show a bit more to get to top 10 status. Hopefully they all have breakout years and keep moving up.

There were a lot of really good bats left at that spot in the draft so I wasn't sure about the pick at the time. He quickly made a believer out of me though. With his arm not being a strength he looks pigeon holed at 2nd unless he can play eft field. He has good speed to go along with good power and with his good plate discipline looks like fast mover to me. He looks like a better version of Tanner Schobel and if both continue to perform I assume one of them gets traded as the infield looks pretty crowded right now, but will have to wait and see.

If the Twins add another starter this offseason to the five man rotation Instead of sending Varland to St. Paul they should use him in the pen at the MLB level and keep him stretched out there. His arm is too valuable to not be pitching at the MLB level IMO.

I am excited for what Daniel might be able to do. IMO it all comes down to the bat. If he makes gains there he has all the other tools be really, really good. If the bat doesn't work it will be hard to move up. Hope he has a great 2024.

Boras is Boras pretty much every year. Holding out might push things later into the offseason, but that only matters to those of us waiting for something to happen. TBH given the way things are shaping up it seems harder and harder for me to see Polanco as a player teams really need and getting the value the Twins need to trade him even less likely right now. I feel the same way about Farmer. Granted his salary seems high for what he brings but his right handed bat and positional flexibility just fit this team too well to be easily moved. The Twins need Kepler for depth if nothing else. Injuries can happen and FO thinking can change, but teams have to know it will take an over pay to get Polanco or Farmer and most teams can't afford to give up MLB pitching so the odds look long for any of the available guys moving IMO. I still think they find some bargain signings of guys who are left standing at the end, but a trade partner seems like it might be hard to find.

Well written and a joy to read, Thanks!

Thanks for the nice Writeup, Jamie! I am excited about this pick. A high velocity arm with a good changeup could be a game changer. Lot's of evaluators don't love the fastball or he would have been picked earlier. Still young and hopefully the Twins can find a way to make it better. If they do this kid could be a frontline starter IMO.

They are not done, but I don't see a big move coming like some people are hoping. I still think they trade Polanco unless the market for him just isn't there. I think per usual they add around the margins. If they do trade Polanco they have the ability to get a starter on a one year deal in the 10M or slightly better range. I don't see payroll going much past where it is right now unless the TV deal is better than expected. This FO tends to make late offseason value moves and I think they like the roster they have and they appear somewhat more willing to see what the young talent can do rather than spend big. We'll see what happens by the end of February but I don't think they are done.

Not sure what I am doing wrong but I don't see it on Twins Utube page.

I forgot how well Sands did at AAA and AAA was no easy place to pitch last year with the tighter zone. He got hit pretty hard in the majors at times and he walked too many guys.. As Ted said a tiny bit of improvement and he could be something. I sure hope he gets there as we can use all the good pen arms we can get. I have lost faith in Winder. He was such a fast mover but seems to have hit a wall. Never say never but it just feels like the stuff isn't going to translate. I hope I am wrong. Balazovich I give up trying to guess. I thought he was a mid rotation starter and now he can't even throw strikes. I have to believe he is working hard this off-season to correct things. Should know more once he gets more time in AAA. Alcala looked good when he finally got back. Hoping he can be the real deal. His fastball has been too hittable so hopefully they have helped him find something else to rely on more often. If he can keep the ball in the park I think he will be OK. They all seem like longshots to succeed but if just even one hits that would be very helpful.

I am starting to think along these lines as well. I get trading future assets for a top of the rotation arm but for small market teams it seems like you take that risk when you have an offense you feel you can depend on and some depth behind it. There is so much uncertainty with Buxton, Correa, Wallner, Kepler, Jullien, Jeffers, Larnach, Castro, Kirillof, Miranda that is this really the time to take that kind of risk? You might get your pitcher but the offense could tank everything. There are so many young guys and vets that didn't play well last year It seems unlikely we know what we have on offense. Lee, Rodriguez, Festa could be players that make a large difference if other players regress. As you mentioned for a team that takes revenue sharing young players are the gold standard to competitive sustainability. That is why Tampa, Oakland, Cleveland trade players as they are getting expensive for younger talent that is less expensive. The Twins would be doing the opposite of that in this scenario. Depleting the young high end talent pool and picking up a player that would be more expensive over time. I get that lot's of prospects even high end ones don't always work out. There is risk both ways. Maybe this offense is ready to take the next step and getting that better pitching staff becomes a real difference making decision. Anything is possible so it all has to be thought through. For me Lee seems like a just in time player to replace the more Expensive Polanco and guard against Jullien staying at 2nd base and also insurance for the oft injured Lewis. Rodriguez is a potential just in time player to replace Kepler and push Wallner to Left field where he can gun down guys on close plays at home plate. Jenkins is hard to predict but he could fill out center field when he makes it. Festa and Raya look like they have the stuff to be mid rotation arms and possibly top of the rotation if things fall right. It is all potential right now though. There is the possibility none of them reach their ceiling or even make it to MLB. Still with so many question marks for this team it doesn't feel like the right time to make a risky trade for a top of the rotation starter to me. I agree with you that the answers might be in house, but there is risk in just standing pat although if this team is for real they could add at the trade deadline as well. I like Rodriguez's chances to be a difference making player. I have my concerns about the holes in the swing but he is patient enough to make it all work IMO. I still see a Polanco trade happening as that is what smaller market teams do. I don't trust Paddock to make it the entire year so it feels like they need starting pitching depth. How they get it I am not sure. Still like you I could see them essentially standing pat to see what they really have before making crucial decisions.

That is what I remember as well. I too understand that spring training stats don't mean much but he had a .325 BA an ,825 slugging percentage and a 1,225 OPS. He looked primed to be at least above average as a hitter at the MLB level for 2023 and then the bottom fell out. Maybe it was the shoulder but MLB pitchers had him chasing stuff outside the zone and when he did hit stuff it was weak contact IIRC. He looked more like the hitter before his breakout than the patient hitter he was in 2022. Again maybe he was just pressing after a tough start to the season. Maybe the shoulder kept him from moving his bat the way he would have liked. Hard to say, but I am concerned about the lack of contact and chasing bad pitches instead of hunting good ones. With a move to first or DH there should be less pressure on his throwing arm and he will have had time to get in shape for the start of the season. If he can be the hitter that came up and played just fine with the big boys he would be the right handed bat the Twins are looking for. I wouldn't count on him to make the team out of spring training, but hopefully he can prove he belongs again.

Given that Chicago is asking for two top tier prospects plus guys in the 10 to 20 range for two years of Cease it seems like it is going to take more than just Lee or Jullien to get a deal done for a difference making arm with years of control. Maybe in the End Chicago can't get that kind of value but that is what they are looking for to move him. It probably takes Lee, Rodriguez and Festa to get a deal done for Luzardo. Maybe even that won't be seen as enough hard to say. IMO it is harder for small market teams to part with high end prospects as they need those types of players to compete long term. While I get the Twins window is open to a degree I guess I still don't trust they have an elite offense with so many questions marks yet in Lewis, Jullien, Kirilloff, Miranda, Wallner, even Kepler, Correa and Buxton are all question marks. I just don't feel like this is the time to sell the farm for a top of the rotation arm that might give out at any time. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe the Twins can find a deal that doesn't move a fair bit of top end talent and or maybe they can survive just fine moving their top end guys. It just seems unlikely to me given what I have been reading. I think they will do something to address the rotation but I think it will fall short of what we hope.

The Farmer mutual option was curious to me as well. I agree with Nick that they almost never work out as one side seems to always feel differently about the value. My thinking is Farmers side wanted a little more in arb and the Twins didn't want to budge so the compromise was they keep the Twins number and if the Twins (or another team) don't keep him around next year he at least got the Arb number he wanted for this year. If he is kept past this year 6M seems like a generous number given what Farmer provides.

I missed that transaction. Thanks for letting me know. When I saw him he last year he was giving up hard contact, but his WHIP and K rate were good for a starter and AAA pitchers struggled last year so was thinking he just needed a little boost to find somethi8ng to get him to MLB. As noted lots of arms in AAA and even more headed there so I guess he didn't like his chances in Minnesota.

I agree with the Mayyybe Culpepper. I know he ran out of gas later in the season but his K9 dropped at High A and he wasn't as consistent as Lewis. Still Culpepper has a plus fastball and 5 solid pitches to choose from so they could bump him to AA based on that. I have Jones, Hidalgo, MaCleod, Morris and Matthews already at high A and the Twins picked up Rafael Marcano in the Minor league phase of the Rule V draft who had a good year pitching at High A. So to me it comes down to if they place Marcano at AA or Culpepper. Marcano had the better K\9 and ERA pitching all year at the High A level and he is older so assuming he moves to AA with Raya, Ohl, Lewis, Nowlin, Rozak and Adams? Any of Nowlin, Rozak and Adams could be moved to the pen and Ohl could be at AAA but with Dobnak, SWR, Festa, Enlow, and possibly Varland and Headrick at AAA could be tight there too. Will be interesting to see how they mix and match. Who stays healthy through spring might determine what levels some guys start at. Edit: Forgot Canterino might be a starter at AAA so that makes things even tighter.

Mauer was a great player from the moment he arrived at the MLB level. His sweet Swing and great eye at the plate helped him to three batting titles. His three gold gloves proved he wasn't just all bat. Still I was surprised in the end just how well he stacked up against Molina and especially Posey. Sometimes I guess you just get spoiled by excellence and expect more from certain players. I do wonder what Mauer's stats might have looked like without dealing with the concussions. It was a tough end to his career, but the M & M boys sure gave us some great years baseball. A catcher in this day and age with three batting titles and good defense not making the hall would have been odd considering catchers generally don't win batting titles and he won three. Given the stats he deserves to get in and they might as well just get it over with by doing it on the first ballot. I enjoyed watching the hometown kid play for my favorite team and to see him get elected to the Hall should make all of Minnesota proud.

Call me overly optimistic but his walk rate gives me hope. As noted he does need to make more contact as the K rate is too high. Still he feels like a tweak away from being just fine. I don't see star player value but I think he can be league average or better in time. Just a few more hits and few less whiffs and his line looks much better at the MLB level. I am close to giving up on Larnach but there still is time for him to turn things around. If doesn't then with Rosario and Rodriguez almost ready and Walker Jenkins possibly not far behind there will be other options soon enough. 2024 feels like his make or break year as a Twin and possibly his career. Hopefully he conquers the things holding him back.

From what I have read it sounds like prospect cost for Cease is very high. It looks like they want Sale like return if not slightly better. Still per MLB trade rumors they expect a trade to happen. If they get that trade right the White Sox could rebuild fairly quickly.

Nicely done! Enjoyed the recap of the beginning of the season. 🙂

Yeah that was my thought as well. He is young and it gives him a little more time at the complex in better weather before heading to cold Cedar Rapids. Lot's of hitters with slow starts the first few months in Cedar Rapids. I can see where Jamie is coming from though as it likely doesn't make much difference where they start him as he has an advanced bat and really good makeup, so I doubt he struggles there. AA is the larger jump as the offspeed\breaking ball stuff is significantly better at that level. Personally I think they hold him back as they generally aren't in a hurry to move high school drafted players quickly through the system. We'll find out 4 months from now. EDIT: That being said there isn't much for outfield talent at High A right now with Fedko (balanced line), McCusker (Super High K rate, Elite slugging), Urbina (No power, Plus Low average),, and possibly Aguiar who might still need time at low A the only ones at that level.

It would be nice if the Twins made a significant move early, but they have generally done well making moves late(r) in the offseason. I keep checking MLB trade rumors, but know nothing is likely to happen until the end of January or later. I'm fine with that if they can find another decent starter to round out the rotation. Beyond that I am somewhat ambivalent. Will they trade Polanco and or Farmer? Will they acquire another player for center field or stick with what they have? Will they add an arm to the pen? Hard to know what they might do, but I think another quality starter needs to happen. Call me crazy, but I still believe in Larnach. It is getting late though. I kind of thought last year was his make or break year and now we head into 2024. As things stand Emmanual Rodriguez is one good half season away from passing him so he needs to bring it. Hopefully this is the year.