Dman

I shouldn't get ahead of myself, but I can't remember a pitcher dominating like Matthews at that level since Ober. What a line Just three hits over 7 innings. No walks and 8 K's. That is absolute domination. No way around it and that lineup was putting up numbers until Morris and Matthews. If Lewis can come back and be who he was (Twins MiLB pitcher of the year last year) Things will be looking up in the starting pitcher department. Festa is at AAA as well. We could have that elusive starting pitching depth next year if these guys continue to pitch like this. Winoker is finally getting to his power more. I am sure they have him working on plate discipline and contact rate to start as those are his weaknesses, but nice to see some power returning. A 3 for 4 day with a walk to boot and no K's. If he keeps this up he is looking like a steal in the 3rd round. Doncon with a much needed 4 for 5 day and a double. He seems to get to the ball well for a 20 year old. Its been a tough start, but hopefully he has his mojo back. Helman with another HR and big day at the plate trying to push that OPS to .900 on the year. Shout out to @DocBauer who even when he was down to start the year was a Helman believer. It looks like he is back to the player that keeps getting mentioned for a call up Probably way to many guys in front right now, but if he keeps this up he will have a chance with the Twins or somewhere else next year if he chooses to move on.

Its the unappreciated guys at AA that seem to be playing the best. Rucker doesn't really have any plus tools that I can see but is average all the way around. Still after Rodriguez he is next in line for OPS for those who qualify at the AA Texas league. He has dropped his K rate to 12% so far this year which means he is making more contact and putting more balls in play. Probably needs to work on the quality of that contact but his 2 home runs last night indicate he can do it. Perhaps power and or contact can be his plus tools? Morales doesn't qualify but has a higher OPS than Rucker at .847 which is second behind Rodriguez. HIs K rate is 15% so surprise, surprise two guys that make a lot of contact and don't strike out are so far doing better than the top 30 guys ahead of them. Cardenes being the exception as his K rate and walk rate are almost equal but just no power at all so far. Although Schobels K rate is higher than the names mentioned above it only in the 20% range, but he too has not found a way to get to his power at AA. AA is a tough level to master and it has slowed everyone except Rodriguez so far. We'll see how Keaschal does but sample size is way too small so far.

Its very possible they go with a college bat. I think Christian Moore would be attractive at 21. I am hoping one of Gillen or Caldwell make it to 21. They would be solid high school picks for 21. If they are gone I assume college bat. There will still be some good ones in that range.

I like the first name Waldechmidt the best. My kind of profile with really good bat to ball, good speed and possibly good power. I have him going sometime after 21 as his arm grades out as 40 which makes even left field a tough fit. The arm is the main issue holding him back some IMO. Depending on what is left for hitters wouldn't mind him at 33. If I felt confident about Lindsey's bat he would be my pick at 21 He seems likely to go between 21 and 33 as there are too many loud tools. After Cavaco these pop up guys make me nervous. He doesn't look like he will have much power projection so I don't see the Twins grabbing him, but who knows. Lewis has a nice profile. I have seen him mocked from the teens to the comp round. He might be the best HS shortstop option in this class in the Twins range so he probably goes sooner rather than later. It's the questions around his bat holding him back and that makes me nervous. It's a quality profile other than potentially the bat. Maybe the Twins risk it at 21 but would have to wait and see what's there first. He would be a nicer pickup/gamble at 33 if he makes it that far. The Twins will have to decide if they want to go arm at 33 because I expect a run on high school pitchers after that. Still there aren't a ton of good bats in this draft after the first 40 to 50 picks so they will have to pick their poison to some degree. Grab an arm and hope for a bat to fall to pick 60 or grab a bat and hope a solid arm falls to 60. If the draft is mostly bats to start the Twins could have their pick of a top arm at 33. The problem is after the 2nd round I don't see many if any elite bats. There might be some power over hit guys in the third and beyond but I expect mainly pitchers the rest of the way so they might want to go bat, bat and then go heavy on arms the rest of the way. Again it probably depends on what is there when they pick and how they see the board falling to feel comfortable getting something good\what they want at 60 and 69. I know the age thing is troublesome but I still think Daniel Nori can sneak into the first round as a comp pick most likely second round though. There is a lot to like, but I can see that being 20 later this year with no college experience would be tough to overcome. It seems like a nice set of tools though.

I wonder if those pitches out of the zone are the only way they give him fastballs? He loves fastballs. I too agree that I don't think I have seen a player with more swing and miss at pitches right down the middle or at least over the heart of the plate. Granted if GameDay can be believed a lot of those pitches have quite a bit of movement, but you would think he could at least grab a piece of the ball in those situations. I think there is still a lot to work on, but am happy he is at least seeing some positive results again. With the tight zone at AAA he needs to be more consistent than he has been to earn a trip back IMO.

Maybe sometimes, umpires at the MLB level expand the zone all the time, but he is taking strikes well over the plate these days just because it isn't in his spot or he was expecting something else. His contact rate hasn't been good either. Pitchers are getting better at pitching to him on the edges of the zone. Regardless he will have to adapt to MLB one way or another and while I don't think AAA will help him with the zone it should help his confidence.

Yeah I don't know what is going on, but he seems like a shell of himself from past years. His control hasn't been great but 27 hits in 16 innings pitched and 6 of those were HR's says his stuff is way, way too hittable right now. It looks like he is trying to stay more out of the zone to compensate, but they need to revamp pitch shape, how they are attacking the zone or maybe just new pitches but a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP isn't going to bring him back to the show. IMO somethings wrong as he has been better than this all the way up. I have no idea what that something is, but hopefully they can get it corrected sooner rather than later. Edit: sorry those were MLB numbers. Actually even though his ERA is 5.31 at AAA his FIP is 3.78 and xFIP 3.58 which says the results should be better than they are. The K 9 is still good at AAA. Walks are in-line too. I don't know how to remove this post but it is not accurate. He is doing ok at AAA, but not dominating like he had in the past..

No one does Twins draft coverage like you do. Awesome guest and fun to see how so many view this draft. If as it seems the the next tier is 12 through about 40 the Twins should get two good players at 21 and 33 pretty much no matter what.

I think those are good reasonable points, but if baseball has taught me anything it is to expect the unexpected. Teams that get off to good starts can sometime mask their deficiencies just enough to take the division. Also injuries can play a huge role in team outcomes. Lose a couple of key bats or arms and that can affect the win\lose record real quick. I haven't looked that closely at the Guardians team, but I feel like Minnesota has the better deeper team. I also think the Twins can make up some ground as they play teams they have better odds of defeating. I still like the odds of the Twins winning the division, but we'll know more by the All Star break.

Good point. They would most likely just fill the backend with starters like SWR, Paddack, Varland, and maybe even Festa. They have some high octane K type pitchers to fill out the back end and be long relief if necessary. I don't see them trading for a reliever with all the other options they would have for the end of the season and playoffs.

I don't think the Twins will find any takers for underperforming players at the deadline. I also don't see them panicking and trading Kepler. They will want his veteran presence for the playoffs and if they get nothing for him and he walks at least they gave the team the best chance in the playoffs. If Stewart comes back and the pen stays healthy not sure they would absolutely need pen help, but sure they could try and make it even stronger further down the line. Right now I pretty much see them staying pat or maybe DFA'ing Farmer or Margo if they don't perform well enough to get Martin, Wallner, Julien or Lee back up. Of course injuries later in the season could change all that, but right now I don't see them being all that active at the trade deadline.

Hoping he stays healthy the rest of the season. If he can I have to believe they make room for him at some point this season.

Happy to have guys back. I think Camargo looks close to returning as well so St. Paul should be at full force soon. That lineup should be good with several players on the cusp of MLB time in Julien, Wallner, Martin, Camargo and Lee (could possibly add Hellman as well).. I really liked BA's top 100 list. I do think Keaschall deserves some recognition for his 1.000 OPS to start his first season of pro ball. I also liked that they recognized just how dominant Matthew's has been with his elite control and command. Granted I think Festa belongs as well, but their point about control being such a difference maker when making the jump makes sense to me. I mean Zebby is throwing strikes. They know he is throwing strikes and they can't do anything about it.. That is some good stuff.

Absolutely love these video's. I am a big fan of Mr. Leighton as I love the smile and enthusiasm he brings to the prospect world. I have a BA subscription but where does one go that site to find these videos?

....And Zebby makes the top 100 at Baseball America. He is on a roll!!

3 ball 2 Strike counts are tough for both hitter and pitcher. Hitter has to feel they need to swing at anything that looks like it might be close to the zone and pitcher is hoping to make something look like it will be in the zone only to drop and if the batter doesn't swing leads to ball 4. To make a hitter chase you have to put balls in the zone otherwise they will never swing in those counts. So there is risk both ways. Putting the ball in the zone could lead to a hit. Going out of the zone could lead to a walk. That is a long way of saying perfecting the cat and mouse game at 3-2 takes good pitches, good control and a little luck sometimes IMO. He is still young and has time to get there, but I think you are right he likely needs to perfect his approach in those counts to get his WHIP down which helps everything else. I didn't look earlier but nice to see he isn't giving up lot's of xbh's as that means his stuff is hard to square up. Watching these games I have seen my fair share 2 strike counts and the batter essentially just sticks out his bat and manages a weak contact hit. That has to be tough on a pitcher as you generate the weak contact but don't get the out. Some hitters are just better at protecting the plate than others and while they don't always win those battles they are going to win some of them. So sometimes it is just tough luck. Still I think he has things to work on to become more dominant.

I kind of gave up on him a little after last years numbers. His WHIP this year is still high, but his ERA at A ball is a shiny 1.80 although FIP and xFIP see it a run or two higher. Still he has good numbers to start this year just not dominant one's. At the minor league level each teams lineups is so variable it can be hard to know what you have until much further down the line. Still for a 21 year old throwing 95 and only likely to get better the future looks bright for Olivares right now. We'll just have to wait and see how bright.

Yeah if you want to bet bigger on up the middle I would go with Wyatt Sanford instead of Culpepper. Sanford is a very good defensive shortstop and a plus runner. Hit tool and power about the same as Culpepper but Sanford is predicted to stick at short Culpepper more likely third. His high school timeline matches up better with Correa as well. I haven't seen his swing but I would bet the Twins could coax a bit more power out of Sanford since they would be getting him young.

I think that looks pretty solid through the first 20 picks or so. I have to say I don't love the Jordan pick. Could he be a steal? He sure could be, but when you are talking about contact problems not sure I am ready for that kind of risk. I think once bitten twice shy or maybe thrice bitten twice shy with similar plays for Cavaco, Wallner and Sabato. Granted Jordan has better physical skills than all of them, but power over hit just seems like a lot of strikeout pain hoping for better days ahead. It Feels like we have been there and done that and it hasn't worked out well. If he is the one who finds that other level you would be getting a 5 tool player top 3 pick at 21, but the odds are not in your favor IMO and is why he likely falls down the board. While I don't know how I feel about a 5'9" center fielder (Granted Ben Revere was 5'9") with a below average arm, I love everything else about Slade Caldwell. I love a plus hit tool. Throw in a guy who can steal bases and track down balls in the outfield and if he is still there I think he is my pick at 21. Gillen and his elite contact rates are also growing on me. Yet another weak armed 2nd baseman, but I think that is the only reason he drops that far down. I just think elite bat to ball is the way to go. I also am high on Benge. I like\love everything about the profile except maybe speed. Those would be the three guys I would look to take at 21 if it were me. Get the bat right because that is what matters most. If they can't hit they'll never make it. If they aren't elite fielders but can hit they will find a place for them. Get the hit tool right.

To be honest I was curious about how often Santana took it himself. I always thought the toss is what they were taught to do unless it looked like the pitcher got a late jump. As the article stated it doesn't really matter either way as long as you get the out and one could argue there is more risk in a fumbled handoff than just taking it yourself. At any rate thanks for finding some data as I wondered if he was an outlier.

Thanks for giving me a feel for what you think! I agree it is going to be a crazy draft after pick 12 or so. Could see some HS bats go higher than expected. Could see a run on pitchers. Could see the power guys go on a run. Impossible to know what will be there at 21 and 33, but there will be very good players in that range. I think they might just go bat, arm bat arm and keep it even, but I do feel the overall system could use more elite bats so bat, bat probably makes more sense. Likely depends on what is available at 33. I saw the drop off more at top 50 but I will defer to you with that top 40 number that separates the next tier. Which is a bit of a bummer as it comes just before our second round picks. Still I think that might be a good range to go high school pitcher if they don't all get swooped up before we pick. I would like to see them go bats with 3 of the first four picks and then go pitcher heavy the rest of the way. The Yankees have found some really good arms in the 4 through 7 round range and I think the Twins should try for more arms in that range. Then do their thing on day three. I think with 3 top round bats they can fill out the A ball roster with those three and the International free agents and then grab some day three hitters or Free agents to fill out the rest if needed. They should go arm heavy as their MiLB bullpen arms have been pretty bad and arms are going to get hurt at a higher rate than hitters so it makes sense to have more available. Will be interesting to see what they do.

Watching Zebby has been so much fun to start the year. Just amazingly dominant. I can't remember someone doing something like that since maybe Baily Ober? I hope he keeps that mojo all the way to AAA and finally to MLB. Would be nice to have another solid mid rotation starter.

There are going to be some interesting battles going on for playing time at 2nd and 1st base with Miranda, Kirilloff, Julien and Lee all fighting for two spots. May the best bat win.

Which begs the questions why keep Farmer at all? Keep Julien at second and then you have Castro to fill in at any spot and not be stuck at 2nd base.

I have always been a big Farmer backer, but I admit that I am frightened when Farmer is in the game especially with Vasquez as that is two near automatic outs in the lineup. I honestly don't think they would miss him much if he were gone as they could add Helman who plays every position and can't hit much worse than Farmer has if they needed that type of player. That being said Farmer has had some tough BABIP luck this year at .211 which has to rise and with that hopefully the slugging which is at a pathetic .239 with no HR's and only 7 doubles it is a brutal .513 OPS right now. Still his approach hasn't changed as he is walking at a 10% clip and only striking out at 20%. There is a solid chance for a turn around in the numbers. Given the choice made I sure hope Farmer can start making some noise with the bat. Having two black hole bats is generally a real rally killer for the team.