Dman

Yep if they all work out it is a great trade for the Twins. No doubt they have a chance to win the present value and future value of the trade. However, looking back at the Presley trade or the Berrios trade and you can see future value is a murky thing. Looking at the trade for Lopez who was an All Star that year is a present value trade that didn't work out either. That doesn't mean these players won't work out, but it does show there is a lot of risk and variability in outcomes. If Topa and Desclafani are the best versions of themselves it solidifies the team and negates the loss of Poianco. If they falter this deal doesn't really help this years team at all. The most consistent player in this deal is Polanco and barring serious injury he is the most likely to perform to an expected level. He could be injured and Topa and Desclafani could be great. That is one outcome but given the past it seems the least likely outcome. I think I admitted Gonzalez was the wild card in this deal. Still guys that don't conquer the strike zone almost never make it to MLB. He is young and has time to get there, but several scouts see his free swinging ways as an issue. Time will tell how that turns out but that weakness makes him more risky to work out in the end. I agree that if that is over blown he could be really, really good. He has good contact skills and power as his 900 OPS indicates. I am just saying the Twins took on a lot of risk with the players they traded for. It doesn't mean it won't work out well for them in the end. It just feels like too much risk for me, but I probably value Polanco more than I should. As a Twins fan I am hoping all the players they received reach their full potential. I just have my doubts and I feel like Seattle got the player most likely to work out.

I know trade values likes this deal for the Twins and future value on this deal favors the Twins but I still think Seattle won this trade by not giving up anything they might need in the near future for a versatile top of the order bat. Dipoto might not get kudos on this deal since he gave up an arguable top 100 prospect, but this is the type of move win now teams make. While the return for the Twins looks like a lot there are a lot of question marks on the return. The M's had to pay the Twins just to get rid of DeSclafani and they freed up a 40 man spot they can put to better use if so desired. Topa is the piece that maybe hurts them a bit but they got him for virtually nothing last year so to trade that for a top of order bat is still a very good deal for them. Bowen was a 13th round pick with control problems adding him to get the deal done would have been a no brainer. The one thing that could tip this the Twins way is Gonzalez, He is a borderline top 100 prospect who has OPS'd in the 900's until a brief stint at High A. The contact skills (bat to ball) are there and your comp of Miranda is a good one. Can he learn to swing at good pitches and lay off bad ones? There is still a ton of risk and unless he conquers that skill quickly he is several years away from making it at the MLB level if at all. Again I think that is an OK risk for a win now team to make for a player that lengthens your lineup like Polanco does and your team in general. The Mariners gave up extra future value that may never arrive and they didn't give up one of their prized young starters. So again I tip my cap to Dipoto as he got the better present value. If Polanco stays healthy he is gonna give them 800 OPS production good at bats and OK defense. That is hard to find. The Mariners did well in this trade IMO. If you are the Twins you failed to get a difference making starter in this deal. You are risking another one year wonder reliever will work out and at his age maybe you get those 5 years out of him maybe not. You get a near top 100 hitter with good contact skills who might get himself out by swinging at pitches that are not even strikes. And finally you get a 13th round draft choice that might have two plus pitches. If two out of the three work out you ultimately win the trade, but two of those players are a long ways away so you lost the present value of the trade unless you come up with something pretty good with the money saved. It's too much risk for me, but if the goal was to move Polanco and this was best deal they could get then it is what it is. Have to hope the eval's on these players is good and they work out and they do get that future value otherwise this trade looks bad IMO.

I knew Seattle had to be happy to get rid of DeScalfini, but since they gave the Twins a top 100 prospect I didn't see much money coming back. The more money that comes back the more likely the Twins do another deal. This deal could look better in the end will have to wait and see.

I think Topa is the headliner in this deal for the Twins. He has a plus fastball and slider with a solid cutter. Not a strike out guy unfortunately, but really good at generating ground balls. Maybe the Twins can tweak a few things but he had a good year last year and maybe even more importantly he has two option years left. Strengthening the pen should help. I don't love Descalfini as the 5th starter addition, but they have Varland and hopefully SWR and Headrick to help as needed. Maybe one of Festa or Ohl works there way up this year yet. Gonzalez is rated number 3 in their system and in the top 100 on the MLB site I believe. Lot's of concerns about plate discipline though and no projection left. I hope this isn't like Salas again where the other team sold high. Still he is a nice power oriented right handed bat. Twins don't have much for the outfield at high A right now after moving Rodriguez and Rosario up so he is a system fit right now as well. He is only 20 but it is going to be a big year for him. Bowen has a live arm with a plus fastball and slider. That is generally what the Twins like in relievers. Maybe they can add a sweeper or cutter as well. Long way to go and not a control artist, but a nice lottery ticket. Lot's of question marks but I guess Polo had his own question marks. Hopefully some of these guys work out. Especially the reliever as he seems to be what they were after for this years team.

Hate to make Seattle better with a really good bat, but I am guessing this is the best the Twins were going to do in a deal. I think Seattle wins this trade on the short term end pretty easily. Polanco is a tough out and a playoff caliber bat. I think the Mariners are going to enjoy having him in their lineup. If he stays healthy he should be a force for them. Things are looking up for Seattle. Will have to take a longer look at what we got back to see how the Twins did but getting MLB help and adding prospects seems like a good move since they have a lot of young infield talent right now. Going to miss Polo,

I too am hoping for an SWR resurgence. Not sure how many viewers caught Tom Froeming's video or SWR and his amazing plus stuff numbers, but if you haven't you should as it shows that if he can just get the fastball to a better spot he could be a real difference maker. This will be big year for SWR. If he wants to try and crack the MLB rotation.

Olivar was in the top 3 at the FSL in BA, OBP and OPS and 5th in Slugging. He is a top performer just like Rosario and Rodriguez were in there leagues. Would be real nice if he could stay behind the plate but his solid batting line should help him play where ever he fits best. Really impressed with his approach and he looks like another stud bat in the system. If he can handle the cold weather he should do well at high A I will be more interested about how he handles AA where the breaking stuff is more refined. If they want him work at catcher seems more likely he goes one level at a time but we will see.

I don't think the Twins have a Colt Keith type player ready for this year. His numbers are really good and he didn't get much of a signing bonus so he has to be thrilled with that deal. It is possible that maybe Schobel or Keaschall could fit that role if their bats come around but like you said the infield is pretty full so not sure the Twins would feel the need. Also possible that if Rodriguez takes the next step and gets the K's under control that the Twins might do a deal like that with him or Rosario, but their bats would need to be better than they are right now. It takes a special player and special circumstances to get one of those deals done IMO. Keith has a very solid batting line. It's a Brooks Lee line with better power. Hard to say how well he will do his first year at the MLB level but long term the odds look to me that he will be a better than average player. MLB is really tough as the pitching is really good, but his approach has been solid the whole way up. I think the Tigers got a great deal. They are a team on the rise.

I know Anthony Prato's numbers might be inflated by the auto strike zone in AAA, but the balanced K and Walk rates along with decent power sure makes him look like a major league bat. Yeah the brutal cold weather start leaves questions as does the higher level of offense at AAA, but I'm a bigger believer than most in Prato. This board has been excited about Miller since we saw his defense in his first spring training reps. Really, really hoping the bat comes around and he can be a long term answer at short. I think Ross had a pretty good first season considering he came from a small school and this was his first time facing really good competition all the time. He is showing power early but a little more contact would put him on very good path. Not sure why he isn't seen as having more potential at short as he runs well and has a strong arm, but he has good potential to break out next year IMO. I am also higher than most on Cossetti especially if he sticks behind the plate, but even if he doesn't his balanced batting line will play at first or DH as well. Hope he gets a shot at AA early but with Cardenas and Winkel there probably not room to start there unless injury. I love Ohl and always have. His start to pro ball was rough and I have to say I felt like he threw too many strikes, but he has amazing control and mixes his pitches well. I am excited to see how he does at AAA. He could be an over looked arm that plays an important role. Will have to see how he holds up. Lot's to like about all these guys but they need to show a bit more to get to top 10 status. Hopefully they all have breakout years and keep moving up.

There were a lot of really good bats left at that spot in the draft so I wasn't sure about the pick at the time. He quickly made a believer out of me though. With his arm not being a strength he looks pigeon holed at 2nd unless he can play eft field. He has good speed to go along with good power and with his good plate discipline looks like fast mover to me. He looks like a better version of Tanner Schobel and if both continue to perform I assume one of them gets traded as the infield looks pretty crowded right now, but will have to wait and see.

If the Twins add another starter this offseason to the five man rotation Instead of sending Varland to St. Paul they should use him in the pen at the MLB level and keep him stretched out there. His arm is too valuable to not be pitching at the MLB level IMO.

I am excited for what Daniel might be able to do. IMO it all comes down to the bat. If he makes gains there he has all the other tools be really, really good. If the bat doesn't work it will be hard to move up. Hope he has a great 2024.

Boras is Boras pretty much every year. Holding out might push things later into the offseason, but that only matters to those of us waiting for something to happen. TBH given the way things are shaping up it seems harder and harder for me to see Polanco as a player teams really need and getting the value the Twins need to trade him even less likely right now. I feel the same way about Farmer. Granted his salary seems high for what he brings but his right handed bat and positional flexibility just fit this team too well to be easily moved. The Twins need Kepler for depth if nothing else. Injuries can happen and FO thinking can change, but teams have to know it will take an over pay to get Polanco or Farmer and most teams can't afford to give up MLB pitching so the odds look long for any of the available guys moving IMO. I still think they find some bargain signings of guys who are left standing at the end, but a trade partner seems like it might be hard to find.

Well written and a joy to read, Thanks!

Thanks for the nice Writeup, Jamie! I am excited about this pick. A high velocity arm with a good changeup could be a game changer. Lot's of evaluators don't love the fastball or he would have been picked earlier. Still young and hopefully the Twins can find a way to make it better. If they do this kid could be a frontline starter IMO.

They are not done, but I don't see a big move coming like some people are hoping. I still think they trade Polanco unless the market for him just isn't there. I think per usual they add around the margins. If they do trade Polanco they have the ability to get a starter on a one year deal in the 10M or slightly better range. I don't see payroll going much past where it is right now unless the TV deal is better than expected. This FO tends to make late offseason value moves and I think they like the roster they have and they appear somewhat more willing to see what the young talent can do rather than spend big. We'll see what happens by the end of February but I don't think they are done.

Not sure what I am doing wrong but I don't see it on Twins Utube page.

I forgot how well Sands did at AAA and AAA was no easy place to pitch last year with the tighter zone. He got hit pretty hard in the majors at times and he walked too many guys.. As Ted said a tiny bit of improvement and he could be something. I sure hope he gets there as we can use all the good pen arms we can get. I have lost faith in Winder. He was such a fast mover but seems to have hit a wall. Never say never but it just feels like the stuff isn't going to translate. I hope I am wrong. Balazovich I give up trying to guess. I thought he was a mid rotation starter and now he can't even throw strikes. I have to believe he is working hard this off-season to correct things. Should know more once he gets more time in AAA. Alcala looked good when he finally got back. Hoping he can be the real deal. His fastball has been too hittable so hopefully they have helped him find something else to rely on more often. If he can keep the ball in the park I think he will be OK. They all seem like longshots to succeed but if just even one hits that would be very helpful.

I am starting to think along these lines as well. I get trading future assets for a top of the rotation arm but for small market teams it seems like you take that risk when you have an offense you feel you can depend on and some depth behind it. There is so much uncertainty with Buxton, Correa, Wallner, Kepler, Jullien, Jeffers, Larnach, Castro, Kirillof, Miranda that is this really the time to take that kind of risk? You might get your pitcher but the offense could tank everything. There are so many young guys and vets that didn't play well last year It seems unlikely we know what we have on offense. Lee, Rodriguez, Festa could be players that make a large difference if other players regress. As you mentioned for a team that takes revenue sharing young players are the gold standard to competitive sustainability. That is why Tampa, Oakland, Cleveland trade players as they are getting expensive for younger talent that is less expensive. The Twins would be doing the opposite of that in this scenario. Depleting the young high end talent pool and picking up a player that would be more expensive over time. I get that lot's of prospects even high end ones don't always work out. There is risk both ways. Maybe this offense is ready to take the next step and getting that better pitching staff becomes a real difference making decision. Anything is possible so it all has to be thought through. For me Lee seems like a just in time player to replace the more Expensive Polanco and guard against Jullien staying at 2nd base and also insurance for the oft injured Lewis. Rodriguez is a potential just in time player to replace Kepler and push Wallner to Left field where he can gun down guys on close plays at home plate. Jenkins is hard to predict but he could fill out center field when he makes it. Festa and Raya look like they have the stuff to be mid rotation arms and possibly top of the rotation if things fall right. It is all potential right now though. There is the possibility none of them reach their ceiling or even make it to MLB. Still with so many question marks for this team it doesn't feel like the right time to make a risky trade for a top of the rotation starter to me. I agree with you that the answers might be in house, but there is risk in just standing pat although if this team is for real they could add at the trade deadline as well. I like Rodriguez's chances to be a difference making player. I have my concerns about the holes in the swing but he is patient enough to make it all work IMO. I still see a Polanco trade happening as that is what smaller market teams do. I don't trust Paddock to make it the entire year so it feels like they need starting pitching depth. How they get it I am not sure. Still like you I could see them essentially standing pat to see what they really have before making crucial decisions.

That is what I remember as well. I too understand that spring training stats don't mean much but he had a .325 BA an ,825 slugging percentage and a 1,225 OPS. He looked primed to be at least above average as a hitter at the MLB level for 2023 and then the bottom fell out. Maybe it was the shoulder but MLB pitchers had him chasing stuff outside the zone and when he did hit stuff it was weak contact IIRC. He looked more like the hitter before his breakout than the patient hitter he was in 2022. Again maybe he was just pressing after a tough start to the season. Maybe the shoulder kept him from moving his bat the way he would have liked. Hard to say, but I am concerned about the lack of contact and chasing bad pitches instead of hunting good ones. With a move to first or DH there should be less pressure on his throwing arm and he will have had time to get in shape for the start of the season. If he can be the hitter that came up and played just fine with the big boys he would be the right handed bat the Twins are looking for. I wouldn't count on him to make the team out of spring training, but hopefully he can prove he belongs again.

Given that Chicago is asking for two top tier prospects plus guys in the 10 to 20 range for two years of Cease it seems like it is going to take more than just Lee or Jullien to get a deal done for a difference making arm with years of control. Maybe in the End Chicago can't get that kind of value but that is what they are looking for to move him. It probably takes Lee, Rodriguez and Festa to get a deal done for Luzardo. Maybe even that won't be seen as enough hard to say. IMO it is harder for small market teams to part with high end prospects as they need those types of players to compete long term. While I get the Twins window is open to a degree I guess I still don't trust they have an elite offense with so many questions marks yet in Lewis, Jullien, Kirilloff, Miranda, Wallner, even Kepler, Correa and Buxton are all question marks. I just don't feel like this is the time to sell the farm for a top of the rotation arm that might give out at any time. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe the Twins can find a deal that doesn't move a fair bit of top end talent and or maybe they can survive just fine moving their top end guys. It just seems unlikely to me given what I have been reading. I think they will do something to address the rotation but I think it will fall short of what we hope.

The Farmer mutual option was curious to me as well. I agree with Nick that they almost never work out as one side seems to always feel differently about the value. My thinking is Farmers side wanted a little more in arb and the Twins didn't want to budge so the compromise was they keep the Twins number and if the Twins (or another team) don't keep him around next year he at least got the Arb number he wanted for this year. If he is kept past this year 6M seems like a generous number given what Farmer provides.

I missed that transaction. Thanks for letting me know. When I saw him he last year he was giving up hard contact, but his WHIP and K rate were good for a starter and AAA pitchers struggled last year so was thinking he just needed a little boost to find somethi8ng to get him to MLB. As noted lots of arms in AAA and even more headed there so I guess he didn't like his chances in Minnesota.

I agree with the Mayyybe Culpepper. I know he ran out of gas later in the season but his K9 dropped at High A and he wasn't as consistent as Lewis. Still Culpepper has a plus fastball and 5 solid pitches to choose from so they could bump him to AA based on that. I have Jones, Hidalgo, MaCleod, Morris and Matthews already at high A and the Twins picked up Rafael Marcano in the Minor league phase of the Rule V draft who had a good year pitching at High A. So to me it comes down to if they place Marcano at AA or Culpepper. Marcano had the better K\9 and ERA pitching all year at the High A level and he is older so assuming he moves to AA with Raya, Ohl, Lewis, Nowlin, Rozak and Adams? Any of Nowlin, Rozak and Adams could be moved to the pen and Ohl could be at AAA but with Dobnak, SWR, Festa, Enlow, and possibly Varland and Headrick at AAA could be tight there too. Will be interesting to see how they mix and match. Who stays healthy through spring might determine what levels some guys start at. Edit: Forgot Canterino might be a starter at AAA so that makes things even tighter.

Mauer was a great player from the moment he arrived at the MLB level. His sweet Swing and great eye at the plate helped him to three batting titles. His three gold gloves proved he wasn't just all bat. Still I was surprised in the end just how well he stacked up against Molina and especially Posey. Sometimes I guess you just get spoiled by excellence and expect more from certain players. I do wonder what Mauer's stats might have looked like without dealing with the concussions. It was a tough end to his career, but the M & M boys sure gave us some great years baseball. A catcher in this day and age with three batting titles and good defense not making the hall would have been odd considering catchers generally don't win batting titles and he won three. Given the stats he deserves to get in and they might as well just get it over with by doing it on the first ballot. I enjoyed watching the hometown kid play for my favorite team and to see him get elected to the Hall should make all of Minnesota proud.