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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    The Twins don't have a history of extending pitchers so it seems unlikely they get a deal done unless one of those players want to take a discount. Kenta seems the most likely player to be in the Twins range financially. He doesn't throw all that hard and seems to have a hard time not dropping off during a full season. Not sure what his Market value will be but I assume in range for the Twins if they want him back and he wants to stay with the Twins. Gray is a wild card for me. If he performs well again this year I think he is the kind of pitcher that could get a three year deal with a fairly high AAV. He is no ace but he appears to be a consistent performer that could bolster any teams rotation. He might be worth the QO hard to say but I think it will be tough for the Twins to sign him. If Mahle stays healthy and pitches a pretty normal season for him I can't see the Twins retaining him. He is young enough for a 5 to 6 year deal at signicant AAV (i.e. Jose Berrios). If the shoulder issue pops up then maybe the Twins have a chance but if there are injury concerns then why go after him? The Twins don't like long contracts for pitchers. I don't know that any of these guys other than Mahle would get a long contract so I think they could extend the other two if they want to invest the money there. They broke the mold somewhat with Correa. Maybe they find a way to hang onto one or two of these guys. I think it will depend on how well they pitch this year before we will know.
  2. Dman
    I am worried about Lopez as we paid a high price to get him IMO. The price paid wasn't for an average reliver it was supposed to be for a high leverage arm. Still he was a bit unlucky with the Twins as I saw a fair number of slow rollers go for base hits. He had guys beating it into the ground at times and still managing to get on base. That being said he also gave up a lot of hard contact with the Twins as well. I don't know what the issues were or are but this pen is built with him in mind as a high leverage reliever. We need him to be the guy we think he was and he should have the pitches to be that guy. Haven't seen him much this spring but hoping he returns to all star form as we are going to need him to be successful.
  3. Dman
    I am with you on Castro. I know he might be fools gold this spring but defensively he is solid. He is a switch hitter and only 25 according to MLB.com. He also has 4 years of MLB experience so ahead of guys like Helman and Prato in the experience department. A break through with the bat and he looks really good as a utility player. Still his spring is deceiving to some degree as he is K'ing at a 40% rate right now granted he generally K's at a 20 to 25% rate and his BABIP is a sky high at .666 this spring. So regression is coming. In the past his batting average has been in the lower 200's but if he can find a little bit more power and just a bit more contact his OPS will rise and he sure looks like a major league option to me. Also would be nice if he finds his stroke to get some payback for Tigers stealing Baddoo. It is all still up in the air but I am hoping Castro can improve at the plate and give the Twins a boost.
  4. Dman
    It is a real tough start for Jordan and I am guessing he won't be in peak shape to start with the broken jaw issue. Still I am hoping that the knee issue is gone and he can get back to who he was. Might be a rough start for him but am hoping as the year goes on he shows some level of dominance. It might not be now or never for him but he is taking up a 40 man spot so another really bad year and the Twins likely free that spot for someone else who can or will make a difference. Not much room for unproductive spots on the 40 man.
  5. Dman
    I was thinking the same thing. An older player with some MLB experience but hasn't quite had the bat to make it. Plays all three spots and if he can get the bat working maybe he gets a chance. But just like last year he is pretty much a break glass in emergency type of player at this point.
  6. Dman
    We have very little info to go on so I am interested to see how well he does at 3rd this year. He looks in better shape and the bat has been really good this spring. I think he can be a solid defender at third but as noted with Lewis and Lee coming up I am not sure how long they will keep him there. If he keeps himself in good shape he should be able to be rotated to 3rd in the future it just seems given the future options he wouldn't be the primary option there. Just have to wait and see how he does. As mentioned above lot's of guys look rough at 3rd to start and get significantly better with time. I hope he does well as it just allows the team to mix and match more effectively.
  7. Dman
    If they could get a Clase type deal I would do it. Yeah arms can fall off at any time but if he works out the savings would be substantial. Bullpen arms like that just don't come around that often. He throws 102 easy and all his pitches have good movement so I don't see much regression there. Only issue would be if his arm was damaged beyond repair for some reason. If they can get an extra year or two with an extension that could be a real difference maker down the road.
  8. Dman
    I kind of agree with you and @chpettit19. They never have really used long relief well since Baldelli has been the manager IMO so kind of surprised it is something they are prioritizing this year. As @chpettit19mentioned what do they mean by long relief. If it is a guy just sitting around waiting for a blowout I don't see that as a very effective use of a bullpen arm. They don't want to do a six man rotation so why not piggy back Ober or Winder with a starter and save most of the pen for an entire game. It would give consistency to the pitcher in the long relief\piggy back role and give most of the pen the day off. If there is a blowout then use your two middle relief guys for a couple innings to cover and they get rested up with the piggy back game. A blowout is generally a loss no matter what but if the Twins have 6 effective pitchers why not use all 6 until an injury says you can't? Put your best arms on the 26 man to me that means Ober and if Ober they need to keep him stretched out. I think Maeda would be a good piggy back guy as he likely needs some pitch count protection coming back from TJ. If the Twins are just looking at a 2 inning guy from time to time then I guess the guys above qualify but I guess I don't completely understand the value of a guy that would only go two innings versus 1? You don't gain all that much IMO and he likely will need more rest before returning as well. I guess if one of our pitchers happens to go 6 innings and the two inning guy comes in then just need one more arm to close? Is that the theory? At any rate not sure how this all works but as I said earlier the best arms should be used on the 26 man not at AAA.
  9. Dman
    I want to be a Dobnak fan as I love the guy but the numbers this spring don't give me confidence. Yes he has a shiny 2.70 ERA this spring but his K9 still is subpar and his WHIP of 1.65 is terrible. Way too much traffic on the bases when he is pitching. He has always needed an out pitch and I don't think he has one yet. He should go to AAA and work on the out pitch. His command has looked bad at times too. I think he is going to need more time but we will see how things go the rest of this spring. I don't trust Sands either. Way too many HR balls and hard contact when he is pitching. He has some really nice looking pitches but the lack of consistency is just a killer IMO. De Leon has looked OK this spring. He seemed a bit wild the first two times I saw him but right now he has a good K rate and WHIP. While I don't like any of these options if I had to choose it would be De Leon right now for me. Unfortunately he is not on the 40 man so unlikely to make it. Hopefully we get to see Winder soon and he looks good otherwise I am in the camp to use Ober there and piggy back off of someone's start to keep his innings up but his arm seems to good to waste at AAA to me.
  10. Dman
    Most players picked at 19 never make a top 30 list let alone the Majors. Given his profile coming in I thought he would be a reliever only prospect. Very surprised at how well he is doing to this point but as noted by others effectively wild only works for so long. I will say his K rate is astounding so he has put away pitches and the fact that his K rate actually improved as a starter is somewhat mind boggling to me. Very, very excited about what Nowlin's lefty arm could become. If he can refine the command and control he looks like a viable lefty starter to me. Hoping to see improvement in the WHIP without losing too much on that K rate. Could be one heck of a pick at 19 for the Twins if he puts it all together.
  11. Dman
    I am very intrigued by Ross and while you don't see many D2 kids drafted that high, his Cape numbers indicate the skills he has play just fine at higher levels of competition. Everything is a SSS right now so hard to get a read on much but his pro ball debut was good and he is even holding his own in spring training (not many chances I think 6 PA) with an .821 OPS mainly made up of walks. Still every time you look at his numbers he seems to be doing well and honestly he should be in way over his head in spring training. He is a bit skinny and or has a slighter build than I thought he would, but he also appears to run well and as noted earlier has a good eye at the plate. If his level of contact is as good as his past results I think the Twins might have gotten a steal in the 5th round as he has the skills of a player taken late first round to early second IMO. Still there is risk just based on the fact that his level of competition wasn't the same as your typical D1 player and his build is lean so not sure how that projects out. I really liked the pick where they got him and with a good full year in pro ball he could rise up prospect lists real quick. I am bullish on the pick and hoping he just keeps putting up the same numbers he has in the past.
  12. Dman
    The comparison was less style related and more they both had so, so first years and Headrick was much improved in his second year. Don't disagree with lower end fastball soft tosser label for Headrick but he is a top 30 prospect\added to 40 man after his improvements. Hoping for the same with Adams but he needs to be quite a bit better than last years numbers to get there.
  13. Dman
    No question he had a good year last year but if you want to make the top 30 you should be dominant at those levels especially out of college. All the numbers look solid but nothing really stands out other than maybe WHIP. That doesn't mean he can't follow the Headrick track. Headrick didn't have a great 1st pro year and then blossomed. It takes time to get used to the competition level in pro ball. He is going to need to keep those K numbers moving in an upward trend as having an out pitch or pitches is very important if you want to be better than average. It looks like he has the velocity and the control so no reason he can't breakout and make the top 30 this year. I will be rooting for him.
  14. Dman
    I like a good bat as much as anyone but when picking that high getting a bat only guy would be a disappointment to me. The bats going ahead of Taylor are both 5 tool players. I think Langford has better speed and power with a very solid hit tool as well. Both players seem limited by their arms though. I am starting to get really interested in Jacob Wilson. He could play all infield positions and likely left field if needed. I am really into contact hitters as I feel they put more pressure on pitchers as they don't strike out much. Those types need to control the zone to be successful but being a coaches son I am betting he is OK there as well. If he just adds a little more power I think he adds an elite hit tool with better position flexibility than Taylor. If the power doesn't look like it will be there then I guess it is a tough call between Langford, Taylor, Gonzalas for me but I still lean Langford since right handed power bats seem in short supply in the Twins system.
  15. Dman
    Nice writeup! I agree with the others above. Just need solid production and eat innings if possible. Holding out hope the arm lasts the year but they probably should give him IL stint mid year to let the arm bounce back toward the end of the year. I am excited to have him back as I love his mentality on the field and personality off of it.
  16. Dman
    I don't really understand pitcher picks all that much other than those in the first couple of rounds. I thought the pick was OK but being he was a Senior sign I thought the Twins would save a bit more money on that pick to spread to later picks. As most people say pitchers seems to be a numbers game to some extent. Grab as many quality arms as you can get and hope the development team can turn them into something. I will say at the time of their picks I gave Varland and Festa no chance to be starters and thought they might not even be viable relievers. Nowlin seemed like a dart pick to me as well. All three look like they are developing good stuff. Which goes to show I don't know much about pitching prospects especially just out of the draft. The Twins picked him high and gave him close to slot so they are believers and they know far more about this young man than I do. Hoping this is another arm in the Povich mold who I also thought was a reach where they picked him. I will be watching all the 2022 pitchers closely hoping to pin my hopes on a dominant arm that can make it in the Majors. Hopefully Morris is the one.
  17. Dman
    I think it is his job to lose at this point. Walking a couple an inning can turn into a disaster right quick. In the minors I have watched him walk the bases loaded. Not something you want to do against the best hitters in the world. The thing he does have going for him is HR suppression. I think that alone may allow them to live with his apparent natural wildness at times. It kind of feels like now or never for him anyway so they should just give him his shot and see how it all works out.
  18. Dman
    It is going to be interesting to see how Jullien adjusts with 2 strikes. I can't tell with any real accuracy but both calls looked close according to the gameday app. He has a reputation now so I think once pitchers get to strike 2 they are going to stay on the edges with him. Should be some good cat and mouse there once he see's the trend. I know the odds were a bit long with Megill to start with for a pen job as I wasn't convinced about him being consistent last year. I know it is just one game and guys can blow up in a game at any time in the season but that was far worse than I was expecting. To make matters worse Headrick literally faced the Phillies starting lineup and gave up no runs. Megill was essentially against AAA or lessor guys and blew up. I mean he had all offseason to get ready if this is "who" he is it doesn't look good right now. Still plenty of time to get back in the mix but he sure put himself in a tough spot this spring. Again super small sample size and none of these things are trends yet as guys are ramping up and working on things. However, Laweryson was pretty impressive with his lower 90's fastball striking out all three batters faced with no walks and no hits allowed. Granted against lessor competition but impressive non the less. Can't get too worked up about stats in spring but helps the confidence level when guys appear to be doing well.
  19. Dman
    He has a big fastball and a slider so not too surprised the Twins are going to see how he does or if they can pass him through waivers. Given the way Megill pitched today guys with control problems don't really excite me much. Lawyerson can barley get his fastball into the 90's. Three K's, no hits, no walks. Granted against the B or C squad but still he hit his spots when he needed to. You can throw it 100MPH but if it is straight or you can't get it over the plate when you need to it doesn't really matter. Hopefully Santana is a tweak away and the Twins get another power arm.
  20. Dman
    Loving the updates and the insight! Keep'em coming.
  21. Dman
    I don't know what his specific swing issues are but he has a good eye at the plate. Generally patient hitters get good pitches to hit he just seems to have trouble barreling up balls and or missing them entirely and striking out. I have been negative on the pick since they took him as I didn't like the pick of a bat only player in the 1st round. I am tired of being negative about Sabato and hoping he can find a way to better contact secondary pitches and not just need fastballs to be successful. There are some large holes in his swing but if he can narrow those he has the other skills to be a good hitter. Hoping for a breakout year and he will be in a hitters league so no better time to get things moving in the right direction.
  22. Dman
    I just hope the bat and eye at the plate translate well at the MLB level. He still K's a fare bit so I still have minor contact concerns. If he keeps up his current pace for yet another year he looks like an elite bat to me. His current level of patience\eye at the plate\power is pretty unique and valuable IMO. Defense is another story as I don't know if he can be average anywhere on the field but if he can again that makes him very valuable if everything translates to MLB. Hoping for a great year from him and that he gets some chances with the big league club.
  23. Dman
    If Rodriguez is still a prospect in 2025 I would go with him but I think he will be on the team by then. My pick is Mercedes. He could be a five tool player and those are hard to come by. Long way to go but he looks like the total package to me so he is my pick. I like Raya a lot as well. His pitch movement is crazy good. I can see why the Twins are so high on him but pitchers are hard to predict and I still am not sold the arm will hold up. If it does he could be number 1, but too many if's for me. Same with Prielipp haven't even seen him throw one pitch so nothing to base anything off of yet. He could be number 1, but again tons of unknown's. Not ready to commit to him yet. I really Like Salas but with the bat dropping off at high A and not much power I don't see him in the number one spot without some sort of huge breakout. Maybe he can do it but I like the odds for Mercedes and Rodriguez better.
  24. Dman
    FWIW I grabbed this out of the MLB Trade Rumors chat and the Arraez comparison is compelling. Arraez is better especially from a war perspective but Solano looks like a decent replacement for the lost Arraez production. Have to take those number with a grain of salt though as Arraez is ascending and Solano's Production declined last year. He is 35 after all. Still I think it helps us see where the FO was coming from grabbing him especially when he works so well in a platoon. Habeto 5 hours ago Well, let’s see. They both play primarily 2B, but they also can play 1B and 3B on a pinch. Pretty similar. Slightly below average runners. But let’s skip to the good part: Looking at career numbers after 2019 (ever since Arraez started and Solano suddenly regained his stroke), some interesting numbers: 1. Slash line: S: .301/.350/.421-18HR in 1079 PAs A: .314/.374./410-14HR in 1569 PAs 2. BABIP: S:.362 and A: .336. 3. WAR: S: 4.9 and A: 10.4 4. OPS+: S: 109 and A: 120 5. Solano has better platoon splits, while Arraez fares well against any hand. Although you can argue Arraez has yet to reach his peak and Solano is on his way out of the Majors, their last 4 seasons compared haven’t been that different.
  25. Dman
    Very nice! high quality content for caretakers. Other guys are missing out.
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