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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Hadn't thought about it that much but that is a good list. I don't disagree with any of the top 7. Will be a very interesting off season next year.
  2. Dman
    I will say it has taken me quite a while to come around on defensive metrics and I think there are others that wonder if how they are calculated in WAR is completely accurate. However, They do a ton of research and comparison on this and with all the technology they have to measure, it is more than just an eye test now. Still I will say I have enjoyed Urshela as player on and off the field. I have been amazed by some of the plays he has made and I think he is a good player. I just don't see the Twins keeping him when they have younger options that shouldn't be much worse and cost significantly less. If the Twins get lucky one the guys replacing could end up with more WAR. Given the roster crunch they have right I just don't see room for him next year.
  3. Dman
    Of any player on the Twins being traded at the end of the of this season I would say Urshela would be on the top of my list. A Steer, Miranda platoon is the most likely replacement. I don't see the Twins paying for a guy with maybe average offense and replaceable defense at 3rd when they have two cheaper guys ready to contribute with higher future upside. The Twins also have a lot of players to protect from Rule V so they will have to slim down somewhere and Urshela seems a likely candidate IMO. I get that he has made some amazing defensive plays but his defensive metrics don't live up to the hype of those few great plays. If the Twins do make the playoffs this year I believe his veteran experience is still an asset but after this year I would try and trade him and spend that money some where else most likely on pitching.
  4. Dman
    Yeah and you need that change in your pocket for opposite side batters so I get it. Development takes time but waiting is frustrating and limited 40 man space makes it tougher and needing another arm or two on the 26 man makes it even tougher still.
  5. Dman
    Yeah I don't know what they are doing but it is starting to make me wonder. I get that you have to be able to throw strikes and especially when you need them but I wonder if they missing things as well. They dumped Vallimont and his 7 plus ERA and over 2 WHIP and now granted it is a small sample 8 innings pitched size but Baltimore has him pitching with a 1.13 ERA and .75 WHIP. I don't think he had a stretch that good with the Twins this year. Granted those numbers won't last but it makes you wonder how they could help him so fast.
  6. Dman
    Those are both good points. 21 is very young to be at AAA but to Nicksavikings point the Twins haven't done much to help him develop to this point. While he has a good K9 for a 21 year old at AAA his walks have increased and his Home Run rate has increased as well which is what drives his ERA to higher levels than it should be. I know he is at a higher level than last year but just like Strotman he seems to be pitching worse than he was before we got him. You would like to think that the pitching coach\organization would be thinking hmmm he is giving up HR's on fastballs we should tweak that. Throw those less. Throw them in a different spot. Keep them down. Keep them up. Whatever it takes to help him with HR suppression because everything else looks good. He literally has been giving up too many free passes and then giving up HR's on top of it. Fix that and he might be a solution sooner rather than later. Maybe he can't control his secondary's I don't know I haven't watched him much but I would have thought they would\could have done more to help him by now as you are right he is taking up a valuable 40 man spot so there is no time to lose to make him more valuable than he is right now. Pitching at that level is hard, I get it and he is very young as well so plenty of time to get better. I think we all just thought he would be better than a 7.45 ERA and 1.63 WHIP given how he pitched last year and given how happy the Twins seemed to be getting him via trade.
  7. Dman
    I still think the White Sox will be right there at the end if their starting pitching doesn't succumb to more long term injuries. Their bats are starting to come around and they are different team when Anderson is in the lineup. They have the easiest schedule from here on out. They need to be able to beat up on the Twins and Guardians as well but they have the talent to do it. Cleveland is still a wild card IMO. They are a young team they always have solid pitching so they are always in games. Their young hitters have been better this year. Young teams can be pretty variable though. They can slump hard or go on major winning streaks. If and it is a big if the young guys stay relatively consistent I think they just wear everyone else down and take the division. The Twins need better pitching and if they can get their starters back and not have to put Bundy out there every 5 days they have been able to hang in there even with the better teams this year. The weakness though is still the pen. The Twins have the weakest pen between the Guardians and White Sox. I honestly think in the end the pen could lose them the division but we shall see. The Offense has a lot of options almost too many options and it has lacked consistency. Can't win games scoring zero runs. With a healthy Buxton and Arraez and with Correa coming on strong this is a different team and if the young guys add to the tough outs the Twins could start to rival the Sox lineup. I still like my Twins to win the division but there are so many ups and downs with injuries and close games won or lost that things could go all kinds of different ways. I just hope the Twins are on top when the dust settles.
  8. Dman
    It would be nice if they would move both up IMO because those are the only two that look like they could possibly help the big club if they can handle that level. They both are not on the 40 man but they will need to be at the end of the season anyway so if they look like a solution they could be added early. I know Rocco said they were encouraged by Sands last start but Balazovich and Henriquez don't look ready and haven't really improved so if Varland and or SWR can show something then maybe the Twins will have other options. No way to find out though until they move them up. Those two look like the only potential reinforcements unless Canterino comes back but I have to believe it will be pen work for him if he does come back. The rest of those guys look like wait until next year types IMO. Still time for things to change with Sands, Balazovich and Henriquez but to this point I haven't seen much improvement and Sands and Balazovich have both struggled with minor injuries' that might be affecting them in major ways. So might be lost years for them to some degree. Have to wait and see but starting pitching help from the farm doesn't look good if you ask me.
  9. Dman
    Happy to see Gipson-Long pitching in AA it was a well deserved promotion with High A ERA at 1.99 and a WHIP of .93. A tougher night for him at AA but he has the stuff to adjust. Kind of surprised he isn't in the top 30 for prospects but I guess he doesn't have enough on the fastball to make it? It looked like the strength of the system was pitching and I remember Keith Law saying something like he didn't think any of our pitchers had overly elite stuff or that it certainly didn't look better than most other teams for high end pitching prospects. It looks like his take is looking more right than wrong right now IMO. Balazovich can't find the strike zone and when he does is getting hit hard. SWR has been OK but I wouldn't call his numbers elite. Henriquez doesn't look ready for AAA. Enlow is just getting back but hasn't been great. Sands looks like he might be better in the pen. Varland has been one of the more consistent arms but still don't know that I would call him dominant just yet. Canterino has looked dominant but given his arm issues looks more and more like a pen arm. Strotman has been worse than I ever could have imagined even as a pen arm. Those are our best AA and AAA arms. Unless things improve that pipeline might be a trickle at best. I don't see anyone on here that looks like a Ryan or even a Winder type of pitcher so hopefully things change because IMO Cleveland and Chicago have more elite pitching than we do and Cleveland has an actual pitching pipeline and a young team right now. Povich, Festa, Raya and Hajjar are guys to watch at the lower levels but they have a ways to go and could end up just averagish as well. I know our pitching has improved over past years and the fact 3 of our 4 affiliates are battling for first place means we have balance and solid arms but where are the dominant arms? Right now I don't see any.
  10. Dman
    IN 2019 he was ranked in Minnesota's top 30 by MLB.COM. He was ranked number 29. So he got some love after his 2018 .900 OPS season. I think he tanked with the bat in 2019 and with his age never made it back on the list. 2020 there was no MiLB season and 2021 he was old for his league and had good but not great numbers so you can see why he wasn't thought of "that" highly. He has been good this year and hasn't missed a beat moving up to AAA. I agree with you that he looks like he could be a solid utility player in MLB, but he would be hard pressed to make it onto the Twins 40 man. Steer is younger and has better numbers. Jullien is younger and has better numbers. Helman is out performing Austin Martin by a mile but Martin is still ahead him. So unless the Twins can work out a trade I think he will likely take his bat to a team in greater need of a utility player next year. He is likely too good just sit and wait for a shot that may never come.
  11. Dman
    First and foremost I don't want him to risk injuring himself coming back too fast but if things come together and he can be ready in August or September that would be a big break for the Twins. I would be hesitant to use him as a starter but since it would be a short season for him maybe that could work? I don't really know what is realistic after TJ surgery. Even a dominant pen role would be nice though.
  12. Dman
    What a night for Severino a perfect 4 for 4. He has been a pretty streaky hitter so far in his career. His strikeout to walk ratio has been pretty bad at least until this year so far. I think if he can gain a better eye at the plate he has a chance to be a good one. jmlease beat me to it but even though Wallner had no hits in game 1 he took three walks. I don't think I have ever seen him take 3 walks ever so I love that he was being patient waiting for a good pitch. When he is on one of his hot streaks he has to know they are going to want to pitch around him so happy he is taking what they are giving him even though I am sure it is frustrating not getting to mash the ball. If he can better balance the walks and K's he is another big bat that could be ready fairly soon. I have been saying it for a while now but I really think Varland is ready to move up and he is already 24 so it would be good to see what he can do at AAA sooner rather than later. If the changeup gets more consistent then he looks like he could be a starter. If not he still would be a good pen arm as well. Happy to see the Muscles clinch a playoff spot. They are not quite the same team without Rodriguez but they are still finding ways to win. Also wondering if they move Hajjar up now or wait until the all star break.
  13. Dman
    The first 7 picks you have seem pretty set if you ask me. The order of those 7 is the only thing that is up in the air. Unfortunately 8 where we pick is where things could take a turn. Miami is a bit of wild card for me though. If one of the high school bats falls to them will they want to wait for them to develop or will they want a college bat like Jung or the switch hitting Berry as faster moving college bats with high hit tool ceiling's? Miami has plenty of pitching they need better bats though so maybe one of those high school guys falls to the Twins. It doesn't feel like this draft lines up quite right for the Twins as they don't really need players like Jung or Berry who have the hit tool potential the Twins like but are 1st base 2nd base DH guys. Picking this high you would like to snag a decent up the middle prospect if you can. Callis got me thinking about Neto and the more I look into the guy I like him at number 8. There is a chance he has to move off of short but he has a legit arm and good actions there it really is just range that might be in question. The hit tool is quirky as from what I understand he has an exaggerated leg kick in his swing. He also doesn't come from a big time conference but he did hit well in the wooden bat Cape Code league .304/.439/.587 not the 407/507/769 he hit in his small school conference but those are pretty nice numbers against some of the best competition. It is possible they could get an under slot deal for Neto as well. The Twins don't have a ton at short in the system so it fills a need as well. Another guy the Twins might look at who is rising up the board is Justin Crawford. He has 70 speed so Buxton like in the outfield and a decent bat to go with it. However he doesn't have much for power and a fairly lean build at the moment so you would have to try and project how he fills out over time. Still he would be an up the middle player the Twins could probably get under slot as well. A bit more risk with that pick and he would go against the Twins typical slugging model but likely an elite defender at minimum with possibly much more over time wouldn't be a bad thing. Anyway those are my thoughts. Still a month left and things can change.
  14. Dman
    Lots of double plays in April-May and a poor BA. He has come around but a pretty ugly start.
  15. Dman
    Have to say it seems to me Correa fails when needed a fair amount of the time but he came through big time today. That double really threw that reliever for a loop and opened things up. It was a tough pitch too but he hit it hard to a corner. Of course Arreaz also was clutch and drove in two runs in a typical long at bat where it looked like they might have fooled him but he fouled it off and the next pitch scored two runs. He is just amazing to watch in the batters box. Glad he is on our team. Gray made it all possible with a crazy good outing giving up no runs. Let's hope the Twins can keep things going because Cleveland and Chicago seem to be back on track as well.
  16. Dman
    ....And we are already talking about how the Twins won't be able to protect all the guys from their 2019 draft. I think they are doing OK. 2016 was a great year to be sure but with a little luck 2019 could be as good or better. Matt Canterino Spencer Steer Sawyer Gipson-Long Louie Varland Casey Legumina Matt Wallner Brent Headrick Sean Mooney Alex Isola Edouard Jullien
  17. Dman
  18. Dman
    Yeah right now Jax's numbers look rock solid. Would be nice if he gave up a few less walks but walks and relievers seem to go hand in hand. His WHIP is still only 1.14 so the walks are not a huge problem for him but it a few less would be nice. He has been a much needed stabilizing force in the pen and Rocco has used him as a stopper at times. If he keeps it up he looks like a nice piece in the pen for years to come. Nice to see Kepler finally make a much needed approach change. It should serve him well to able to beat the shift when needed and certainly he can go pull side to see if he can hit one out as well. More balance was the key and I think he is getting there. Defense has never been a problem and we are probably spoiled to have such good defense in right field. If Max have a more productive bat he will be staying in right long term.
  19. Dman
    It is getting more and more painful to watch Kirilloff just kill AAA pitching. He needs to be moved up. The swing looks so smooth again and he seems to have multi hit games more often than not. The numbers are just getting silly. He is going to force the Twins hand he has been so good for too long now and they need a hot bat. I know he just got back but Beckham is another player who is super hot with the bat right now. I wonder if he has an opt out? If he keeps this up he could be an option for another team. He keeps having multi-hit game and has the highest OPS on the team at 1.340. SSS but higher than even Kirilloff for the moment. Wallner continues to mash and has his OPS in the .900 range. He has a good chance to hit 25 HR's this year. I think this was Legumina's best start at AA. It was against a tough lineup as well. Hope it carries over as a lot of arms seem to be sputtering right now. Tough luck losses but tomorrow is another day.
  20. Dman
    I think he knew the kind of pitcher he is and that is a pitch to contact kind of guy. He is going to try and make guys hit it on the ground and hope his defense can get the job done. He gave up 12 hits in 7 innings at the MLB level with zero walks only 4 K's and an ERA of 7.00 so that strategy is not working well just yet. He probably can be a serviceable pitcher on an MLB team in need of a 5th starter but I don't think he is someone who is going to improve to be much more than he is right now. I appreciate what he did for the Twins organization and wish him the best but it wasn't going to work out here for him IMO.
  21. Dman
    I think Varland is the best starting pitcher at the AA level right now. With SWR a fairly close second and you could argue that with SWR 3 years younger he is the better pitcher but for me right now today it is Louie. Varland has a better K rate and he looks more ready IMO. Having pitches that miss bats is the best indicator for moving up IMO and Louie has that. I still am concerned he ends up a reliever but he has proven me wrong since he first started until now so maybe he does make it as a starter. I know Canterino has elite stats at AA but given he is injured yet again he seems destined for the pen, like Duran. Most of the scouting reports I saw coming out of the draft had Canterino as a reliever and Fangraphs felt he was likely a reliever as well. I think it is time for the Twins to stop fighting it and make Canterino a reliever. Another elite relief arm to go with Duran can only help this team. I am anxious to see what SGL, Povich and maybe Headrick or Festa can do at AA. They all have pitched well at High A and seem to have solid potential to be elite at the next level. Probably not right away but hopefully in time.
  22. Dman
    Any news on the injured McCleod, and Rijo? Also any news on Urbina's VISA issues? Absolute bummer that Rodriguez has such a bad leg injury as he was set to move up for sure and A ball is struggling without him.
  23. Dman
    I agree that his bat has been a rally killer. As stated almost an automatic out. He can steal strikes and his framing is very good IMO. He stole strike 3 for Pagan in the 9th on Saturday and ended the game but if he can't throw anyone out at 2nd that really hurts. Not sure what the answer is but if this is who he is the Twins are going to need to do something different.
  24. Dman
    Yep count me in that camp too. I was ready to trade him this year for starting pitching. Like Chief I just felt his lack of speed and power would catch up to him but I was wrong, very wrong. I think this is the healthiest Louis has been in a while and when healthy I think he always has done very well. Also putting him in more righty lefty matchups isn't hurting his stats either but if he starts adding power to his game with his eye at the plate his OBP could sky rocket. Happy to see him doing well as his consistent bat has been big this year.
  25. Dman
    Yeah it really doesn't seem fair. He proved all the doubters wrong only to get hurt yet again. Its life and stuff happens but Lewis has had brutal luck. His attitude is so good I don't think I could be as positive as he is. I would probably just be depressed. He is right though just face the reality of it and come back and try again. Tomorrow is another day. See ya next spring Royce.
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