Dman

Lee would need a Monster AA start to the season and then conquer AAA for at least a month to get a chance. Not sure he is gonna be ready that fast. They both look more likely to get called up in August or September. Not sure how long until Lewis can get started this year but since he already proved he can handle AAA he still looks first in line to me. I do hope Lee is ready sooner rather than later. We need both of those players to be success stories ASAP or it is going to be hard for this team to compete in the short term.

Twins must have really believed they were going to get Correa to have gotten rid of Gio. Probably had Farmer pegged as the third basemen spelling Correa on occasion at short. Guess they should have waited as now they either need a SS or third baseman in Turner to make things work. Lewis and Lee have never been more important to the Twins future than right now. Really need both of them to step up into roles that will help this team now and in the future.

Almost 30M per year for 6 years? No Thanks. We will see how this one ends up but that Yankee rotation looks really, really good right now. They are going to be a team to be reckoned with if they stay healthy.

Really appreciate the insight! Thanks for the thoughtful analysis! As a fan\arm chair GM I wasn't enamored with even a ten year deal for Correa and yes I am one of those posters who didn't think 285M would get it done and it didn't. I don't know if you can call even 285M for 10 years disciplined as even that contract was not likely to age well and yet they offered it, but yes in general I believe this FO has been disciplined in there financial approach. Sticking with shorter term contracts and trading for the talent they need. I thought they were pretty aggressive trying to get starting pitching last year but they got burned by the pen early in the season and the offense never really did click all that well last season, Still they were in first place for the majority of the year but for as close as the club house was they never really gelled results wise on the field. I don't know if not getting Correa or Rodon are the be all end all for this team. They need better starting pitching and a more consistent pen and I think they can compete with anyone. Thanks again for giving your perspective! It is nice to get a feel for what it feels like inside a FO.

Very nice post! It is possible they were hoping he would take less to stay in MN and maybe in the end that is why SF needed to bump their offer 70M over the Twins offer. Still I think the Twins needed a way to get to at least 300M to have a chance. Every team has their limits and I am guessing the Twins felt they stretched as far as they could go at 285M. I have to believe that kind of money for that many years made them very uncomfortable as it was. Still they had to know SF was likely going to make him the highest paid shortstop. I don't think Boras was going to give in until he got that for Correa. IMO They needed to get closer to that mark for Correa to do an I like MN discount. An extra 70M is pretty hard to turn down no matter how much you like MN. If they "truly" wanted him they needed to do better than that.

I will agree the Front Office looks clueless if they thought 285 was going to get it done. Given Boras and Correa wanted 35.1 Million to get him the highest AAV for a shortstop should have been a clue to anyone not deaf or blind what it was going to take to sign him. 300 was the starting point and they didn't even make it to starting line. I think 325 might have gotten it done but we will never know as the Twins never got there and from the sounds of it never were going to get there. I will disagree on missing out on some of those players on the OPs list. Turner turned down more money to stay on the east coast he was never coming to MN. The Twins had no interest in Contreras for what ever reason and they got the catcher they did want. I don't believe they were in on Abreu either and all of the central passed on him as well. Maybe Boegarts but given his number was past the absolute max of 285 getting that deal done seems unlikely as well. I will give you Basset and Anderson who knows if that had anything to do with Correa or not. So yes I agree they were clueless if they were waiting on Correa given what they offered but I don't think I can agree they missed out on many of the names you mentioned above because of it.

If you are the Twins you had to know that to get Correa you were going to have to make him the highest paid shortstop in the sport. Anything under 300M would have been a slap in the face IMO. I can see why this dragged out now. He might have wanted to come back to Minnesota and waited to see if they would move off that number but they didn't. So off to San Fran who did what needed to be done. Technically I was fine with however this played out. Correa would have really helped this team especially by plugging the hole at short for the next 6 years or so. He also might have hamstrung this team from other moves as well. Given how poorly the team did with him he wasn't the "difference maker" I was hoping he would be. Also as he aged the last few years of that contract were likely to get ugly. If the Twins would have offered him 10\350 I am not sure the value would be there and still there was and probably never will be a player they could have felt this comfortable taking a chance on. Positive club house guy always interested in doing the right things for himself and his teammates. Pretty much rock solid numbers through his career. Maybe value isn't everything though as we are seeing other clubs look past it to try and field playoff type teams. So far no one in the central has offered that large a contract to a player yet so I guess they are not alone in that regard. Given what happened last year I don't think this is a make or break deal but I am a little disappointed the Twins didn't offer at least a 300M contract. IMO They were never "really" in this thing despite the reports.

If you are the Twins you had to know that to get Correa you were going to have to make him the highest paid shortstop in the sport. Anything under 300M would have been a slap in the face IMO. I can see why this dragged out now. He might have wanted to come back to Minnesota and waited to see if they would move off that number but they didn't. So off to San Fran who did what needed to be done. Technically I was fine with however this played out. Correa would have really helped this team especially by plugging the hole at short for the next 6 years or so. He also might have hamstrung this team from other moves as well. Given how poorly the team did with him he wasn't the "difference maker" I was hoping he would be. Also as he aged the last few years of that contract were likely to get ugly. If the Twins would have offered him 10\350 I am not sure the value would be there and still there was and probably never will be a player they could have felt this comfortable taking a chance on. Positive club house guy always interested in doing the right things for himself and his teammates. Pretty much rock solid numbers through his career. Maybe value isn't everything though as we are seeing other clubs look past it to try and field playoff type teams. So far no one in the central has offered that large a contract to a player yet so I guess they are not alone in that regard. Given what happened last year I don't think this is a make or break deal but I am a little disappointed the Twins didn't offer at least a 300M contract. IMO They were never "really" in this thing despite the reports.

I think you are pretty spot on. For an example look at Buxton and his speed and how he changes games just with his defense. Add in the fact that Ruiz could be a sleeper Buxton 2.0 as he had a .900 OPS in AAA and IMO you can see the appeal. He isn't necessarily "just" a speed guy he has good power for a center fielder as well. Can you imagine Pache and Ruiz in the same outfield? A's are on their their way to a great defensive outfield with two players that can put the pressure on the other teams D by beating out infield throws and stealing bases. I can see why the A's wanted him so badly. It is the same reason I want the Twins to take Bradfield in the draft. They could mix and match outfield with Buxton, Gordon, Lewis and Bradfield. That could be fun too.

Agreed. Tarnok is a K machine and at AAA so very close to his MLB debut. Muller is another AAA pitcher with good stuff and rated Oaklands number 5 prospect in a loaded system. Ruiz has 80 grade speed and 900 OPS at AAA and is rated number 6. His MLB debut did not go well but 80 grade speed can play well especially if he has a decent hit tool. Oaklands farm is loaded right now and they will draft high again this year so in the next couple of years they should be a young team and force to be reckoned with. The A's found the pitching they needed and a center fielder that can fly. They got what they needed to round out the roster.

Really Happy the Twins got a catcher. It was a major need and the price was right IMO. As someone else noted not all that far off from the Castro signing several years ago. This is a start now they just need to get Correa to sign on the dotted line and they can look for one more starter.

Some context is needed. Last year coming off the money losing pandemic season teams didn't seem as interested in handing out long term contracts. Other than Texas doing big money deals for Seagers and Semian. Correct me if I am wrong but I think Seagers was the only player last year to get a 300M contract in FA. All of last years contracts seem relatively modest compared to this year. Almost every trade rumors article about top Free Agents this year has the player making much more than predicted in total dollars and in years. So last year was a much different market and it looked like long term deals were a thing of the past until this year where a few teams are going past the penalties with indifference. Buxton's deal is light but he still hasn't made it through a full season. He might have gotten a better deal or he might have needed to bridge a new deal taking a one year higher AAV type deal to try and get past the injury issues. Given what happened last year that contract still looks fair to both sides to me. If Buxton was fairly guaranteed to stay healthy I might have a different view.

Don't forget the Twins have Austin Martin from the 2020 draft and there are other players like Severino, Urbina and possibly a few others depending on how they develop that might need to be added. Still to the OP's point with Sabato a likely bust and Solarie nothing to write home about the Twins should have an easier time not worrying about the rule V draft for the next several years. Remember they traded away most of their top 2021 draft picks so that could be a light year for adds as well. Depending on how things shake out a player like Lee and Prielipp and or anyone who excels from the 2022 class could find themselves on the 40 man sooner rather than later. The Twins still can make trades that net them guys that might need to be added sooner rather than later but will have to wait and see. At any rate as things stand we shouldn't have to worry too much about losing anyone important in the rule V for the next three years or so.

All I can tell you is they are all on the 40 man so if they aren't worthy of being depth then why do the Twins have them on there? Wallner, Larnach and Garlick all had 700 OPS's last year and Kepler had a 666 OPS so can those guys that haven't proved they belong do much worse than that? Even Kirilloff had a 650 OPS and he will get better in time if the wrist ever straightens out. Celestino has some work to do IMO but he is still depth as long as he is one the 40 man. Kepler has been injured himself over the years. It happens. Kepler was unproven at one time as well. Every player is unproven when they first start that doesn't mean they can't be good and won't make it or that they can't be better at the plate than Kepler. If you think they should just DFA the guys who haven't proved they belong then I might see your point otherwise yeah the FO believes they are legitimate depth. So I don't know that I understand your point.

Yeah Miami is very money conscious. More so that the Twins and Kep isn't exactly cheap. Betting they would prefer someone younger with more control at less cost. Maybe they could trade out salaries to get where need to be hard to say but I agree with you that Miami might be a tough sell for Kep.

He also plays infield though as well. He can play 2nd, 3rd and short in a pinch. That is all I meant he is not specifically outfield.

I think some of these decisions come down to if they sign Correa or not. The Twins have depth in the outfield with Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Wallner, Garlick and technically Gordon. I think the attractive thing for most teams with Max is he can be used as a centerfileder. He has the range and his offensive numbers play better as a centerfielder as well. Still his contract is almost up so not sure how much trade value he has? What can he realistically bring back that would make a difference? Not sure but something is probably better than nothing and given the young outfielder's we have there isn't really room for everyone as it is. We also have Celestino and Gordon to backup center at this time so the Twins can afford to trade him. I guess they would just need to find a return they can live with.

Yeah looking deeper if you trust the Trade Values site it would take Arraez and Larnach or Kirilloff to get that deal done. Or you could substitute Polanco for Arraez as he has more value somehow. Dang getting decent pitching is expensive.

I could see doing that for Polanco and some C level prospects in the 20 range in the system if needed. He is controlled for three more years and he had an 800 OPS in 2021 so both players had good 2021's and fell somewhat in 2022. Not sure Miami wants to take on Polanco's Salary so Twins might need to kick in some money. Still if they could build a package around Polanco I would be all for it. I would hate to trade Arraez for two years of Lopez because Arraez is fairly cheap and young and I think he might sign a reasonable extension. Still I can see why the Twins might do it as they have Lewis, Martin and Jullian pretty much ready to go next year with Lee not far behind. They also have Gordon who can be plugged in there. So they have a lot of second base depth and they need more and better pitching\pitchers. Still that only buys them two years and if he continues to be good there is no way they will sign him in Free Agency. If the Fish want Arraez the AL batting champ and controlled at a reasonable rate for three years. IMO they would need to kick in something on their end if they want the top bat in the AL.

I never liked the Rooker pick from the beginning. There were good pitching options there and he was so old for a prospect I was never on board. I talked myself into Sabato and Cavaco as being solid picks at the time. Although I wanted Carroll instead of Cavaco I still was willing to let it play out long term. In hindsight they talked themselves out of the better player. To keep things moving they need to not miss with that top 5 pick and they need to get more arms in the system. This is a strong draft pool they have a chance to reload. They generally always go bats with international signing so they should go with more arms in the draft IMO. Not saying they "have" to go arm at number 5 but then go arms through the top 10.

Well the Twins have missed on a fair number of hitters in the first round. Sabato, Rooker and Cavaco come to mind as some of their worst picks. I don't know why this FO doesn't like to take pitchers early but from what has been discussed on this board they seem to feel they can find workable arms in the later rounds but feel it is harder to find\develop bats from the later rounds. Since 2017 they have only taken one pitcher in the first round and that was Petty whom they promptly traded. I don't know what the stats are on pitchers taken in the top 5 versus hitters but given how analytically driven this FO is there must be some reason they prefer hitters versus pitchers in the 1st round.

All I have to go is what they have paid in the past. Last years 135M was the highest payroll they have ever had. Maybe that moves higher over time maybe not but right now they are just under the middle of the pack in MLB salary spending so they should be able to compete with bottom half of teams. Tougher to deal with teams that have the ability to spend 100M more though..

Yeah I tend to agree and now with Bogaerts going to SD he can create a bidding war with SF, Chicago and the Twins. I don't think he gets Judge money but Boras has put him in a good position to be the highest paid shortstop in the game. I don't know what the Twins plans for future payrolls are but if 130M is close to their max paying 35M per year to one player for ten years is probably fine short term (5 years or so) but after that it likely means not being able to sign some of the teams developed players that turn into stars or even very good players. I get the pressure to get Correa as they paid a price to get Gray, Mahle and to some extent Maeda and Paddock but I don't think that is enough pitching to compete in the playoffs and last year having Correa led to an under .500 team. Not sure the Twins "need" to take on that kind of risk but I know they really, really like the player and Correa enjoyed his time in Minnesota so who knows maybe the Twins are all in no matter what?

I do like Dollander best as I think he is a fast mover and the Twins need dominant pitching the thing is he seems unlikely to make it to number 5 with pitching needy Pittsburgh and Washington looking for ace level arms. The High School kid seems "Petty like" with better size and likely less reliever risk. He could fall to the Twins but there are some special bats at the top of this draft so there will be tough decisions to be made. Due to TINSTAPP There is not such thing as a pitching prospect) I see the Twins likely taking the safe route with a bat. They should be able to get a really good up the middle star type player (SS, CF) with less risk than banking on an arm holding up all the way to the Majors. Having said that the Twins are in desperate need of difference making arms and if they feel really good about a couple of these pitchers given the state of the farm now would be the time to take that kind of risk. I guess we will know more about what they decide to do after the draft but from what I can see they have excellent options picking at number 5 pretty much no matter how the board falls. IMO the top 9 to 10 of this draft looks pretty good and then starts to fall off a little. Twins just need to choose wisely in their spot. Even at 34 they should be able to get a very good player they just need to pick well and I feel like they need to replenish the pitching pipeline so would like to see more pitchers than position players selected this coming draft.

Not that it matters but no one else in our division seems to be in on any big names this year either. It's not an excuse for our FO to do nothing but there is steep competition for the high end FA players and if signing one means eating 30% of our payroll for 10 years that feels a bit risky to me. They are going after the same player that led the team to an under .500 record. I don't think he is enough of a difference maker to make a difference for the amount of money they want to invest. This team needs much better pitching to compete in the division and the playoffs. This is a team with lot's of potential hitters close to ready but little to no difference making arms on the farm. If they want to focus on something that will make the whole team better it should be pitching. I like Correa and certainly won't be upset if the Twins sign him but I also think there are other ways to get to where the team needs go without Correa as well. In fact IMO they might be better off without him in the end. At any rate I am looking at this either scenario as a win\win no matter the outcome.