Dman

I could be wrong but I don't see the Twins trading Kep for a bag of balls. A team is going to have to give them something decent to move him otherwise they can just try and build his value back and depending on where they are do a deadline deal. I agree they could still use him for depth if they want to. They do have a lot of outfielders on the 40 man though. Would hate to see the Yankee's get him as so many Twins seem to perform well once there. If they do trade him to the Yankee's they need to get something better back than John Ryan Murphy.

This is a very balanced synopsis, Thanks! Hopefully the young guys get started and make this team tough to beat.

In comparison to Max, Gallo seems to perform just a little bit better in OBP, SLG and ultimately OPS. Gallo's batting average is terrible and coupled with the K's he will be a rally killer more often than not IMO. The good defense does help a lot though as it makes him valuable beyond his bat. He might be a slight upgrade over Max but not much that I can see. Will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. If he can bounce back it would really help this team so I hope he does find his HR stroke again.

Other than Kepler I think the team pretty much remains the same and they might even hang onto Kepler if they can't find the right return. Will have to see how desperate Miami is to trade later on but if they want MLB players like Polanco or Arraez then those talks will be tough. The Twins did a bunch of trading to get Maeda, Mahle and Gray I guess I don't know why they would give up on that now by trading them before the season starts. Last years flawed and injury riddled team was in first place in the division for most of the first half. I think they role with what they have and see how things develop. Also if one or all of Maeda, Mahle and Gray have really good years they all could be QO candidates. So any return would need to keep that in mind. It could be that none of them are worthy of a QO as well but still it seems worth while to wait on rebuild scenario's until we see how this team as constructed works out.

Well I guess if you want a club house cancer Bauer is a good bet. His own team mates on the Dodgers wanted the FO to get rid of him even before the issue that got him suspended. If the Dodgers don't want him back I pity the team that grabs him. Maybe his ordeal was a wake up call, hard to say but old dogs are hard to change. I do believe in second chances but given the circumstances I don't think the Twins can take that kind of chance as they are about a little over a year after struggling with club house vibs of there own. Bauer would be a pass for me.

Not much FA action in the entire central this year. Seems like the White Sox are more interested in moving salary than anything else this year. If the Twins get a starter it needs to be a front of the rotation type of pitcher or they might as well stick with what they have. Once again they appear to have pitching depth with Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland and SWR with Paddack back maybe mid year. So lot's of 5th starter material to work with. They can't be counted on but if Balazovic, Enlow and Hedrick improve dramatically they could be depth as well. If they can't find a deal they like I can see them standing pat. If the FO thinks Polanco is a guy that gets it done not sure why they would hesitate. They would still have Arraez they can plug in there and Jullien seems likely to be ready for 2nd at some point next year and they also have Martin who can play there and Lee might be an option at Short or second so they are going to have to move somebody off this team at some point. Switch hitters are hard to come by but if the return is front of the rotation pitcher that this team desperately needs then I think they need to do it. Honestly unless they get a deal they like I think the Twins will stand pat with what they have. It isn't sexy but might be enough to take the central if this team can find a way to hit lefties.

I agree with you. Boegarts got a 280M deal and he was supposed to be second fiddle to Correa. The minimum I mean minimum had to be a 300M deal. If they were never going to go there it seemed hard to believe this was ever going to get done. Sorry but I don't buy Seth's theories on this. They had Correa all year last year what due diligence was left? If there was any then that makes this FO look incompetent IMO. If the Twins really wanted Correa they likely could have had him by adding an Option year where he gets 30M if the keep him and 15M to buy him out. That gets them over the 300M guaranteed and potentially matches the Mets offer. Maybe the Mets would have moved the bar further out then hard to say but I would have a lot more respect for their efforts if they had done that. I will say Boras feeling the need to move off of San Fran so quickly is odd and doesn't play well. As noted by others he is notoriously patient in making deals. Certainly seems like he could have given them through Christmas to make a decision. Still I guess with the deal falling through and Correa being aced out late in market last year he might not have wanted to wait for what he might have felt was an inevitable "no deal" from the Giants. It would have been hard to renegotiate with the Giants if they no longer wanted to go 13 years as it could set a precedent for teams outbidding and then exclusively negotiating after "finding something" in the physical. He also might have just been pissed and wanted to hurt SF by moving Correa elsewhere. Hard to say what the motivation might have been but I will agree with others that is suspicious. At any rate I am not too upset the Twins didn't get Correa for 10 years. Those last 3 to 4 to 5 years of talking what a dead weight he is would have sucked. However, my point stands. If this FO really wanted Correa I think they could have had him but the bar was 300M. They should have known that from the beginning. If they were not going to go there they probably had no business even bidding.

At this point In the end this whole thing seemed like a lose\lose for the FO. This board has already given them grief for signing guys that had potential injury concerns. Upping the offer after another team gave pause to how long Correa might last seems like a bad idea for a small market team. I mean even the generally free spending Giant didn't want to take on the risk why would the Twins? I don't really blame the FO not getting back into this mess if they even had much of a chance anyway. Cohen would have out bid them almost no matter what they put out there for a number. If Correa "really" wanted to be in Minnesota he could have taken a small discount to do it. He chose not to and that tells me all I need to know. Time to just move on.

Yeah I think most likely the Twins said last offer was it. I think they felt plenty uncomfortable offering that contract and with some new medical concerns I doubt they were willing to go higher. At any rate even if they had moved to 300M Cohen would have just upped the anti IMO. From what I have read he is a pretty persuasive guy and willing to put his money where his mouth is. The Mets will be in it every year and Correa just a cog there. If he went with the Twins likely a lot of losing in his future and very limited opportunities to be on the big stage for the world series. Seems like a no brainer to go to the Mets even if the contracts were equal to me. Even if the Twins paid more he might have gone to the Mets All Star team as the game is a lot more fun when you are winning.

Boy was I wrong. I thought the Giants would keep Correa for sure. Can't believe the Mets got it done essentially paying 52M per year for Correa. That is going to be one tough team I can see why Correa wanted to go there. The Mets will need to keep those arms healthy and they have some older arms but if they do they look World Series bound to me.

I don't know that I am convinced this is a deal breaker for SF. They might want to restructure with option years or something hard to say but I think at the end of the day this gets done. He was fine last year and he was never making it the full 13 years they gave him anyway. Not aware of his ankle being an issue more his back. We will see but I can't see SF backing out now.

I think you can depend on Gordon for a mid 700 OPS. He has been right around those numbers most of his career and as he adjusted a tick better at times. He is a solid defender at all outfield positions and a plus defender in left field. Probably plus at 2nd base as well but he doesn't get much time there. I was ready to trade him going in to last year but once truly healthy he had a really good year. Hoping for more of the same as he is an important part of this team now.

I got to tell you I am starting to come around on your theory. These mid guys generally are not difference makers and at 11 to 15 mil per pop they are not cheap either.

It is most likely going to be Mark Contreras coming off the the 40 man, but I also see a Kepler trade in the future as well.

So you need a right handed bat in the outfield and you go and get another left handed bat with high K numbers. Just what we needed? Obviously this means Kepler is being traded for sure. Just a matter of time. Not the news I was hoping to hear. The Twins must see a rebound coming because his OPS was worse than Keplers last year and he isn't the defender Kepler is either. His career batting average is .199 so there is that to look forward too.

Lee would need a Monster AA start to the season and then conquer AAA for at least a month to get a chance. Not sure he is gonna be ready that fast. They both look more likely to get called up in August or September. Not sure how long until Lewis can get started this year but since he already proved he can handle AAA he still looks first in line to me. I do hope Lee is ready sooner rather than later. We need both of those players to be success stories ASAP or it is going to be hard for this team to compete in the short term.

Twins must have really believed they were going to get Correa to have gotten rid of Gio. Probably had Farmer pegged as the third basemen spelling Correa on occasion at short. Guess they should have waited as now they either need a SS or third baseman in Turner to make things work. Lewis and Lee have never been more important to the Twins future than right now. Really need both of them to step up into roles that will help this team now and in the future.

Almost 30M per year for 6 years? No Thanks. We will see how this one ends up but that Yankee rotation looks really, really good right now. They are going to be a team to be reckoned with if they stay healthy.

Really appreciate the insight! Thanks for the thoughtful analysis! As a fan\arm chair GM I wasn't enamored with even a ten year deal for Correa and yes I am one of those posters who didn't think 285M would get it done and it didn't. I don't know if you can call even 285M for 10 years disciplined as even that contract was not likely to age well and yet they offered it, but yes in general I believe this FO has been disciplined in there financial approach. Sticking with shorter term contracts and trading for the talent they need. I thought they were pretty aggressive trying to get starting pitching last year but they got burned by the pen early in the season and the offense never really did click all that well last season, Still they were in first place for the majority of the year but for as close as the club house was they never really gelled results wise on the field. I don't know if not getting Correa or Rodon are the be all end all for this team. They need better starting pitching and a more consistent pen and I think they can compete with anyone. Thanks again for giving your perspective! It is nice to get a feel for what it feels like inside a FO.

Very nice post! It is possible they were hoping he would take less to stay in MN and maybe in the end that is why SF needed to bump their offer 70M over the Twins offer. Still I think the Twins needed a way to get to at least 300M to have a chance. Every team has their limits and I am guessing the Twins felt they stretched as far as they could go at 285M. I have to believe that kind of money for that many years made them very uncomfortable as it was. Still they had to know SF was likely going to make him the highest paid shortstop. I don't think Boras was going to give in until he got that for Correa. IMO They needed to get closer to that mark for Correa to do an I like MN discount. An extra 70M is pretty hard to turn down no matter how much you like MN. If they "truly" wanted him they needed to do better than that.

I will agree the Front Office looks clueless if they thought 285 was going to get it done. Given Boras and Correa wanted 35.1 Million to get him the highest AAV for a shortstop should have been a clue to anyone not deaf or blind what it was going to take to sign him. 300 was the starting point and they didn't even make it to starting line. I think 325 might have gotten it done but we will never know as the Twins never got there and from the sounds of it never were going to get there. I will disagree on missing out on some of those players on the OPs list. Turner turned down more money to stay on the east coast he was never coming to MN. The Twins had no interest in Contreras for what ever reason and they got the catcher they did want. I don't believe they were in on Abreu either and all of the central passed on him as well. Maybe Boegarts but given his number was past the absolute max of 285 getting that deal done seems unlikely as well. I will give you Basset and Anderson who knows if that had anything to do with Correa or not. So yes I agree they were clueless if they were waiting on Correa given what they offered but I don't think I can agree they missed out on many of the names you mentioned above because of it.

If you are the Twins you had to know that to get Correa you were going to have to make him the highest paid shortstop in the sport. Anything under 300M would have been a slap in the face IMO. I can see why this dragged out now. He might have wanted to come back to Minnesota and waited to see if they would move off that number but they didn't. So off to San Fran who did what needed to be done. Technically I was fine with however this played out. Correa would have really helped this team especially by plugging the hole at short for the next 6 years or so. He also might have hamstrung this team from other moves as well. Given how poorly the team did with him he wasn't the "difference maker" I was hoping he would be. Also as he aged the last few years of that contract were likely to get ugly. If the Twins would have offered him 10\350 I am not sure the value would be there and still there was and probably never will be a player they could have felt this comfortable taking a chance on. Positive club house guy always interested in doing the right things for himself and his teammates. Pretty much rock solid numbers through his career. Maybe value isn't everything though as we are seeing other clubs look past it to try and field playoff type teams. So far no one in the central has offered that large a contract to a player yet so I guess they are not alone in that regard. Given what happened last year I don't think this is a make or break deal but I am a little disappointed the Twins didn't offer at least a 300M contract. IMO They were never "really" in this thing despite the reports.

Agreed. Tarnok is a K machine and at AAA so very close to his MLB debut. Muller is another AAA pitcher with good stuff and rated Oaklands number 5 prospect in a loaded system. Ruiz has 80 grade speed and 900 OPS at AAA and is rated number 6. His MLB debut did not go well but 80 grade speed can play well especially if he has a decent hit tool. Oaklands farm is loaded right now and they will draft high again this year so in the next couple of years they should be a young team and force to be reckoned with. The A's found the pitching they needed and a center fielder that can fly. They got what they needed to round out the roster.

Really Happy the Twins got a catcher. It was a major need and the price was right IMO. As someone else noted not all that far off from the Castro signing several years ago. This is a start now they just need to get Correa to sign on the dotted line and they can look for one more starter.

Some context is needed. Last year coming off the money losing pandemic season teams didn't seem as interested in handing out long term contracts. Other than Texas doing big money deals for Seagers and Semian. Correct me if I am wrong but I think Seagers was the only player last year to get a 300M contract in FA. All of last years contracts seem relatively modest compared to this year. Almost every trade rumors article about top Free Agents this year has the player making much more than predicted in total dollars and in years. So last year was a much different market and it looked like long term deals were a thing of the past until this year where a few teams are going past the penalties with indifference. Buxton's deal is light but he still hasn't made it through a full season. He might have gotten a better deal or he might have needed to bridge a new deal taking a one year higher AAV type deal to try and get past the injury issues. Given what happened last year that contract still looks fair to both sides to me. If Buxton was fairly guaranteed to stay healthy I might have a different view.