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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    That was my assumption too, but usually that’s when I get proven wrong.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    Martin and Castro in the OF is interesting
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    100% agreed, I thought James was well reasoned, and he fits with the OP, but I disagree with him, on the history and his qualms with WAR. its not a perfect metric, but its good, and more importantly its easy and accessible. baseball has always been a stat heavy sport, from the earliest days. Our stats have become more complex with access to computers, but keeping the box scores in the paper books, scouting reports… it’s all analysis of data with the tools you have.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    I would also guess The Celsius, which is right around the corner and equally “sus”
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    The great Bill James weighs in: https://www.billjamesonline.com/judge_and_altuve/
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    Also… I like fangraphs, and it’s my go-to, but baseball-reference has a glossary too https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/ https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    100% agree on context being extremely important. Sample size is key on any metric, and comparing apples to apples. So WAR isn’t helpful at all for current season in April, I bristle seeing it quoted in May, but when you’re coming up on half a season and discussing trade deadline, it can be useful. As others have mentioned, WAR is a cumulative stat, so I usually try to pair it with rate stats, to try to bring context. Hitters: OPS is my go to. Pitchers, I like WHIP. I tend to measure fielding separately, baseball savant outs above average (also a cumulative stat). Is a nice comparison.
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/ “You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players.”
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed on the Guardians and Rangers. Being in-line with bankruptcy court gave them a significant lever in the tv contract negotiation. Hard to say how many suitors the Twins had, but according to the Athletic article DSP was quoted in, in his usual very vague terms it sounded like The MLB was pressuring the Twins to take a 1 year TV only deal. I would imagine that might significantly limit the negotiation leverage for the Twins.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    Thanks for sharing your story Cody. F-Cancer!
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Forbes isn’t “Fact”. Forbes is a publication that tries to turn wealthy people into celebrities by sharing information those wealthy people want to share. It’s not GAAP audited financial filings for the SEC on publicly traded companies, it’s estimates
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Correct, but he’s not a manager. He doesn’t make decisions about how the Twins are run. He’s an instrument just like the players are. Buxton, Correa, Provus, none of them set the budget, or have any insight, they repeat what they are told and share their opinions.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    I’m super excited about this team, and I think the complementary bullpen pieces brought in by the FO were good moves to solidify a very good top end of the pitching staff. The Twins may never again field as good of a team as appear poised to field for 2024, and that they didn’t push their chips in to make the two big moves that would transition them from post season contenders to World Series favorites is a horrible shame reminiscent of 2009 and 2010. they hid behind a bs excuse about a TV contract that they knew they were getting something. They didn’t know about Amazon, but they knew they were getting something from the MLB, or some TV contract, and they knew 2025 was going to net them some amount in the MLB grand scheme. im not pissed off about the money, I’m pissed off about the ownership’s plan to be conservative!
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, how I think of it is… If the FO/Ownership had framed it as “we believe the core is in place, and we’re going to supplement it with complementary pieces” it would have been true, given the impression of lower spending, without pegging the payroll to income. Pegging it to income made it a lie when they signed the Tv deal but still didn’t spend it.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Quoted below is DSP from the Athletic, bolding is mine: “That said, it’s not a perfect outcome for anyone. It’s a one-year deal for us. Some of it was in our control, much of it was out of our control. Some of it is a product of the bankruptcy system. And as we think about it from our perspective, it’s a balancing act. You balance economics, distribution and production quality, and local priorities vs. national priorities.” I heard one of the talking heads, maybe Gleeman have a theory about this means the MLB is trying to launch a streaming service with all of the teams that were on Bally for 2025 and the League was pressuring the Twins to accept a 1 year deal without streaming rights. if this is the case, they were likely hamstrung in negotiations
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, no way ERod’s clock starts in 2024 unless they absolutely have to, which means Buxton, Martin, Kiersey, and Prato were all together in a fiery car accident during spring training. Brock Stewart should be the primary setup man for Duran. Why the heck would a top 25 starting pitcher with a 3.5 ERA who threw 144 innings last year get moved to the bullpen for two guys each with a 5 ERA? If Ober isn’t the number 3 starter in the rotation, it’s because he’s the number 2, number 1 due to injury, or he’s on the IL himself.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    This is what I believe to be the most likely situation
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed! And if Santana actually is a leader in the field/at the plate, something went horribly wrong
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Lopez 185 innings 3.5 era 1.15 WHIP Ober 170 innings 3.7 era 1.1 WHIP Ryan 180 innings 3.9 era 1.15 WHIP A very optimistic yet possible outcome, all top 20 pitchers, still the best top 3 rotation in all of baseball
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    in WHIP and K/BB they’ve shown ability to deliver extremely good results at limiting base runners. Home runs tend to vary widely, but keeping runners off the path is a great recipe for success. im bought-in on top 3. If López, Ryan, and Ober are in the 180ish innings, Paddack can get 100 innings and DeSclafani doesn’t throw 100 innings, I very much believe this rotation is as advertised. Health is key, I think it’s possible
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    I agree, by rate stats Ober was a top 25ish starting pitcher. He’d have been a front of rotation starter on a bad rotation.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Ugh is the right word! is Paddack or DeSclafani injured/setback? I’d rather have Festa or Raya in the rotation than either of those two, but starting the season with them might be too quick.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    looking at WAR, Sonny’s 184 innings bringing 5.3 WAR is a high bar to clear, and it is. Ryan pitched 161, Ober pitched 144. Both could feasibly flirt with 180 innings, and both with top 30 rate stats. That 1.07 WHIP is elite. 5.79 K/BB is fantastic. how much does Paddack, Varland and DeSclafani drop off? Paddack is projected for 2ish WAR 120 innings, 1.21 WHIP, improving over Kenta Varland is projected 119 innings and 1.2 WAR 1.27 WHIP, serviceable to very good 5th starter. If DeSclafani doesn’t have to pitch much… it’s probably going to be another very good pitching season. big if… but I’m bought in
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think Bailey Ober replaces Sonny Gray’s likely output. Last year he put up a 1.07 whip with 25% k rate, 5% bb rate for 2.4 fWAR. 2022 was similar rate stats but shortened. He appears healthy and if he can stay that way, he should surpass 3 fWAR and be a top 20 starting pitcher in ‘24. i think MLR put up the chart on the Twins having the projected best AL pitching staff for ‘24 and 4th in MLB and I believe it.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    If Gordon is on his last leg with the Twins (I agree), what value does he bring in trade when everybody else can just wait for him to hit the waiver wire?
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