Richie the Rally Goat
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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat
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Sure is! The standard of deviation of runs scored per game could tell a very different story than simple sum. “Uneven” matters relative to the other teams. For all I know, the distribution falls right inside the league average or well outside to be an outlier.- 58 replies
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- rocco baldelli
- matt wallner
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Are not! I do not believe you :) from a fan’s perspective, 3 true outcomes is terribly boring to watch, but it’s hard to argue with being the 6th highest scoring team from 2019 through 2024.
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- rocco baldelli
- matt wallner
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Living in NW Wi, cable/dish providers picked me up as Brewers area but MLB.tv picked me up as Twins area. I haven’t been able to watch legally for years and I missed it, especially last year when Provus went to TV. i go to 10 games per year, and I’m super excited to pay my $100 per year to watch the Twins on TV!
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- dave st peter
- justin morneau
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Lottery tickets are independent outcomes. 2 top 100 prospects are more valuable as currency, but they are still independent in their odds of success. the ROI we should be measuring is not Jose Berrios, that trade was player for prospects. is 2 top 100 prospects commensurate? Seems so as you hold the outcomes of what happened after the trade in somewhat low regard. Rather, the ROI should be measured on the minor league coaching and training apparatus. Does the coaching machine work better than its peers? Are there subsets more efficient at producing higher quality outcomes than others?
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Top prospects become competent major leaguers at something like 25-50%. https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects SWR was 86th in 2021, I wasn’t able to find Austin Martin in the top 100. SWR had a 17% chance of being “successful” not even “excellent”. Realistically they weren’t going to trade 1.5 years of Berrios for guaranteed 6 years of Berrios. It’s a chance at 6 years of Berrios.
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agreed, Falvey needs to make a move or two, or the offseason is a failure. Even if it is a failure, this team can be competitive. The scores the 4th most runs in the AL last year. 5th most runs in AL ‘23. Is that not competitive? I will always prefer competitive to rebuild. Rebuilds suck!
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- derek falvey
- pablo lopez
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I read this signing as fungible, a guy that isn’t on the 40, but if he gets added they can DFA when they need the roster spot and not feel bad about. as to why Severino and Williams “want” to be in the org, I don’t think that’s relevant. They’re both under contract.
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That was super-duper fun! More please
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Do-Hyoung Park Moving on from Twins Beatwriting
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Matthew Leach is still an editor at MLB.com, clearly a placeholder. odd though, while there will absolutely be a whole bunch of turmoil at 1 Twins Way and 250 Nicollet Mall, Suite 600, I can’t imagine it’ll cause that much kerfluffel at MLB, unless it’s the media rights deals being the primary influencer here. -
Do-Hyoung Park Moving on from Twins Beatwriting
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
https://www.mlb.com/news/matthew-leach-new-mlb-com-twins-reporter?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share -
Do-Hyoung Park Moving on from Twins Beatwriting
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Best wishes Do! -
Who knows what their record would have been, but I can guarantee that it would have been less than 82 wins. If you like watching losing teams, you would have loved 1995 to 2001, and basically the whole TR2.0 tenure. Me? I’ll take a winning record over a losing one, every year
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If last offseason they had traded Correa for prospects, it would have traded away 20% of team fWAR on a team that was 4th in runs scored in the AL. They would have gone from 10th in MLB fWAR to 18th.
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That and Royce is already on the roster, they would still need to replace Correa’s output.
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I’m not even a millennial and I find this post a sad facsimile of satire.
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Kepler Signs With Phillies
Richie the Rally Goat replied to shortround81's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Good for Kep! -
Ya, and Castro is still the utility but now free
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Polanco was the glue that held the 2023 Twins together? 2023 Twins were 5% above AL average in runs scored, ranked 5th. 2024 Twins were 15.5% above AL average in runs scored ranked 4th. Correlation is not causation. i think it was all the injuries happening at once in August 2024 that caused the collapse, and not some clubhouse cancer that Polanco would have saved. edit to add: agreed with the OP that chemistry does matter, but it’s not black and white. Social chemistry is harder to quantify than molecular chemistry.
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Agreed, the pohlads are private equity investors too. They all seem to follow the same model, buy distressed assets, strip cost (frequently painfully) to save the asset from itself, sell or invest heavily to put it on a growth trajectory. We just watched this happen. new ownership if they are fans might be more creative and more personally invested to turn the asset into growth, and that’s exciting.
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Ehhh, many Twins Fans have been Anti-Pohlad since the mid-nineties when they let their team be one of the worst in the AL for 6 years and another big chunk when Carl voted for contracting his own team in 2001. I let the small market thing slide in the mid-nineties as a “well, it’s the Metrodome, they can’t afford…” type of thing. When Carl voted to contract his own team after mismanaging it for half a decade…. He lost me. The whole Pohlad family has been lying, cheating garbage in my eyes for 23 years. As to whether a potential new ownership group is better or worse than the Pohlads: Griffith was awful, The Pohlads were in some ways better, it’s hard to say how Griffith would have responded in the Dome and faced with the contraction issue, and was dead when Target Field. The only thing I can say with certainty is an owner that wants to own the team is a hell of a lot better than an owner who doesn’t. whether the new ownership group are going to manage the team better, I have a hard time imagining they’ll be worse. It’s possible, but then why spend the money at all? Where the buyer beware issue is, the Cardinals grew from 1.5B to 2.5B during the cable tv boom. What direction is that value going from here forward? It could be the new ownership of the Twins are buying the dip. Short term revenue is dropping. It sounds like MLB has a plan to turn that around. I hope for all of us fans that is the case, or the pain of industry change will reduce the number of teams or reduce the quality of available players.
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They’ve been visiting Phoenix for a year now
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Ron Davis?!?!?
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The only way it would make sense to trade either one, is a Hershel Walker colossally stupid lopsided trade in the Twins’ favor. That doesn’t happen
