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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    Rambling or not, great first post. IMO, Dobber is an emergency option, but that contract is still an absolute steal. No regret, not even a second thought. welcome to TD.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    The Twins aren’t losing 2016 Max Kepler, they’re losing 2025+ Max Kepler. Looking at the trend, I don’t think the fielding drop-off will be as stark as the OP suggests, maybe no drop-off at all.
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    Absolutely spot on!
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    You don’t get to be a billionaire by being ethical
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    Absolutely accurate, the change scope should not be limited to 1 Twins Way. Think: 250 Nicollet Mall, Suite 600 Minneapolis, MN 55401
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    The Twins didn’t know that the organization they were currently in negotiation with for a contract extension and had already missed $140m in payments to multiple MLB teams were in financial distress? I’m gonna go ahead and disagree with your assumption here.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    Buck was an awful DH, but has been hampered by leg injuries. Could moving to first keep his head in the game and his bat in the lineup?
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Yup!
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    Who’s Velazquez?
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed with Levi on the OP topic of homogeneity in the lineup. It’s a problem that the OP kinda covers. i agree with the posters who mainly point to a talent deficit, definitely injuries impacted performance, but there were too many guys crapping the bed at the same time for talent being a big factor there. where I get a little lost is the spark plug rah rah stuff. I prefer to watch that style of baseball. Old school ball is way more fun to watch than the modern game. There isn’t evidence that it actually works, meaning scores more runs. Not in the way that the OP attributes the outcomes, anyways. As others pointed out, Lewis, Correa, Buxton… if a guy that is 5th all time in Twins Grand Slams in his second year not a spark plug, I’m not sure what is.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    In 2017 the Royals had a payroll of $127m, 2018 payroll was $130m, 2019 $67m. Royals sold in August of 2019.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    In the private equity investment world, where The Pohlad companies operate, and is also typically done when sports franchises are put up for sale, like the Orioles and Royals, companies artificially inflate their profitability and or cash flow by selling their liquid assets and converting them to cash. This reduces Cost of Goods Sold, making gross profit (and net) higher. It comes at the expense of future sales, but when you are selling the company you don’t care. When you are buying the company, it becomes more valuable even though it has less assets, because outside of the stadium, the assets are intangible, you’re buying profitability also, cash from the seller, stays with the seller. There is a likelihood the sale will last into 2025, maybe 2026.
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    I don’t understand, please elaborate
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Richard Schulze of Best Buy Bill Austin of Starkey Stan Hubbard would definitely have a vested interest Mark Davis of Davisco Dairy and Cambria Countertops Barbara Carlson Family of Carlson Wagonlit Travel Macmillan family - Cargill all billionaires in Minnesota. Carlson’s would be low likelihood as they’re hellbent on spending their billions on ending sex trafficking. Same with Austin giving hearing aids to the poor… Rich do-gooders!
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    Pablo is likely gone. He’s the only one of the big 3 that the Twins wouldn’t have to pay to offload. do they “need” to offload? No, but knowing the Pohlads, they will.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    In January 2024 Zips had the Twins at 85-90 wins. Going from 17 games over .500 to 1 game over .500 in 6 weeks was tough, but “depending on the health of the roster” was pretty nails.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Hammond has shown no qualms about a long commute to the Park, and an aversion to relocating The Park to San Diego (I believe). He’s my number 1! Wayne and McDuck would immediately move the Twins to Gotham City and Duckberg. Would Wonka move the Twins to the UK? He doesn’t have a British accent, so I’m inclined to no, but he’s so darn reclusive it’s hard to tell… My offering would be George Bailey. They might scrap by on grit and determination alone, but rely on and give back to the Twins Community.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    My prediction is to pull out the Private Equity playbook and wring every nickel of overhead out of the operation that they can to artificially inflate net profit. The same for cash flow, but they’ll have a hard time cutting payroll enough to make a dent without sacrificing competitiveness.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    They don’t already know? The market is 30 teams, 1200 union members, and a number of agents that is likely in the low hundreds. if the hundreds of agents and 30 GM/PBOs don’t know exactly what’s going on in their very small market, they won’t stay employed for 2 weeks, maybe a month tops.
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    This guy
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, they signed Correa, I love watching him play, he’s fantastic. offloading Correa only for the sake of cash preservation and satisfying a statistical metric would be the worst. Lee would be a significant downgrade in 2025. Next offseason, if Lee is knocking down the door and Correa had a healthy ‘25 where he is tradeable as an asset and brings back a good return, it’s a different calculus.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    I realized after posting that, I failed to drip the dividends on the S&P calc, it should have been 2.5 to 3b… but yeah, there were years in the 90s where the broadcast sharing revenue from mlb alone paid all of the operating expenses and they still brought in FSN media rights, ticket sales, and concessions.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Here’s the statistical analysis behind Cody’s argument to support the idea. https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2023/02/pay-to-play-an-analysis-of-payroll-and-performance-in-the-mlb-and-nba/ the thrust of the article is higher payroll = more wins, but for teams lower on the payroll list, a more evenly distributed roster salary wins more than those with salary concentrated in few players and low for most all. As ash pointed out, how they execute matters, because dumping Correa hurts the team while more evenly distributing the salary among the team.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed. It’s hard to project Cost Of Goods Sold, but I would imagine they run a multi year pro forma P&L and cash flow statement. It wouldn’t surprise me if last October, what looked like a last minute boondoggle to us from the outside, was actually planned well in advance and just really poorly executed and communicated,
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