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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    In 2017 the Royals had a payroll of $127m, 2018 payroll was $130m, 2019 $67m. Royals sold in August of 2019.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    In the private equity investment world, where The Pohlad companies operate, and is also typically done when sports franchises are put up for sale, like the Orioles and Royals, companies artificially inflate their profitability and or cash flow by selling their liquid assets and converting them to cash. This reduces Cost of Goods Sold, making gross profit (and net) higher. It comes at the expense of future sales, but when you are selling the company you don’t care. When you are buying the company, it becomes more valuable even though it has less assets, because outside of the stadium, the assets are intangible, you’re buying profitability also, cash from the seller, stays with the seller. There is a likelihood the sale will last into 2025, maybe 2026.
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    I don’t understand, please elaborate
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    Richard Schulze of Best Buy Bill Austin of Starkey Stan Hubbard would definitely have a vested interest Mark Davis of Davisco Dairy and Cambria Countertops Barbara Carlson Family of Carlson Wagonlit Travel Macmillan family - Cargill all billionaires in Minnesota. Carlson’s would be low likelihood as they’re hellbent on spending their billions on ending sex trafficking. Same with Austin giving hearing aids to the poor… Rich do-gooders!
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    Pablo is likely gone. He’s the only one of the big 3 that the Twins wouldn’t have to pay to offload. do they “need” to offload? No, but knowing the Pohlads, they will.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    In January 2024 Zips had the Twins at 85-90 wins. Going from 17 games over .500 to 1 game over .500 in 6 weeks was tough, but “depending on the health of the roster” was pretty nails.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Hammond has shown no qualms about a long commute to the Park, and an aversion to relocating The Park to San Diego (I believe). He’s my number 1! Wayne and McDuck would immediately move the Twins to Gotham City and Duckberg. Would Wonka move the Twins to the UK? He doesn’t have a British accent, so I’m inclined to no, but he’s so darn reclusive it’s hard to tell… My offering would be George Bailey. They might scrap by on grit and determination alone, but rely on and give back to the Twins Community.
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    My prediction is to pull out the Private Equity playbook and wring every nickel of overhead out of the operation that they can to artificially inflate net profit. The same for cash flow, but they’ll have a hard time cutting payroll enough to make a dent without sacrificing competitiveness.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    They don’t already know? The market is 30 teams, 1200 union members, and a number of agents that is likely in the low hundreds. if the hundreds of agents and 30 GM/PBOs don’t know exactly what’s going on in their very small market, they won’t stay employed for 2 weeks, maybe a month tops.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    This guy
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, they signed Correa, I love watching him play, he’s fantastic. offloading Correa only for the sake of cash preservation and satisfying a statistical metric would be the worst. Lee would be a significant downgrade in 2025. Next offseason, if Lee is knocking down the door and Correa had a healthy ‘25 where he is tradeable as an asset and brings back a good return, it’s a different calculus.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    I realized after posting that, I failed to drip the dividends on the S&P calc, it should have been 2.5 to 3b… but yeah, there were years in the 90s where the broadcast sharing revenue from mlb alone paid all of the operating expenses and they still brought in FSN media rights, ticket sales, and concessions.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Here’s the statistical analysis behind Cody’s argument to support the idea. https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2023/02/pay-to-play-an-analysis-of-payroll-and-performance-in-the-mlb-and-nba/ the thrust of the article is higher payroll = more wins, but for teams lower on the payroll list, a more evenly distributed roster salary wins more than those with salary concentrated in few players and low for most all. As ash pointed out, how they execute matters, because dumping Correa hurts the team while more evenly distributing the salary among the team.
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed. It’s hard to project Cost Of Goods Sold, but I would imagine they run a multi year pro forma P&L and cash flow statement. It wouldn’t surprise me if last October, what looked like a last minute boondoggle to us from the outside, was actually planned well in advance and just really poorly executed and communicated,
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Is this an overhead reduction thing?
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    To take that a step further, he hasn’t stayed healthy for a full season since 2019. Would it be best for him and the Twins to transition to a short stint reliever?
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    I just listen to my accountant for my s-corp
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Retained earnings are a publicly traded company’s mechanism to avoid taxes temporarily. Private company’s immediately pay income taxes on net profit. There’s no benefit to retain earnings.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    As I understand it, Audra Martin is a BSN employee. Provus, and Morneau are MN Twins employees. https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    In 1991 they were second best in errors and fielding percentage, but were 4th in runs scored, best in K%, and second in wOBA. They frickin HIT!
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    Carl voted in favor of contraction, preferring to sell his team in a closed market sale to the league rather than an open market sale to the highest bid. The league itself survives on Congress exempting it from anticompetitive law. This was never some capitalistic heroism tale.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    He was a decision maker in an FO that signed C4 twice and swung a trade for Pablo Lopez and extended him. never before those moments did I let myself believe that the Twins would ever wade that deep into those waters. I’m grateful for those moments.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Everyone thinks of their opinions as in the majority. 2020 was the highest turnout for a presidential election in a century and 66.3% of Americans voted. Majority ruled that election, less than 34% of Americans were the “Majority”. and so we have a “public opinion survey” where the stakes a zero… Much like those 33.7% of Americans who don’t care or don’t think their vote will matter in the electoral college… I’ll abstain Join me in manager apathy, it’s easier here
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Quoted excerpt regarding Levine: He participated in a lot of decision making with the Rangers and that will certainly be true with the Twins. What Minnesota fans may wonder is he more of a risk-taker, or a proceed with caution executive? “I think some of that is circumstantial, so I would tell you I played different roles throughout my career,” Levine said. “I think Texas (the Rangers) by and large was an organization that embraced risk. It was very risk tolerant, and I think in that environment sometimes I had to play the role of the voice of reason. “Whereas in my early (time) in Minnesota, I may be more of the person pushing the envelope on the risk-taking side. …But I think the best decision making groups have people who represent all thoughts and all thought processes. “I think one thing that I have found effective in my career is recognizing what the occasion calls for, and making sure I represent different points of view (so)…that we have everything really evaluated before we ultimately make our final decision.” End Quote I don’t read this as “risk taker” as much as “devil’s advocate”
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    Good question! Who’s strategy? 1) Minnesota Twins 2) AL Central Teams combined? (Is there a commissioner of ALC?) 3) MLB 4) Whatever might be left of FSN/BSN 5) Sports Broadcasting in general Who’s eyes are they trying to monetize? 1) current fans 2) sports fans generally 3) people who don’t seek out sports Cable has a foot in the grave, but isn’t dead yet. What consumers say they want and what they pay for are different things. If I were Manfred on behalf of the MLB, I would look to monetize sports fans generally and seek a multi-sport partnership with ESPN and Disney, maybe Fubo too. Make it as broad as you can to try to replicate the cable bundle without the cable, to draw as many families into a single platform
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