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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    It’s Carlos Correa now
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    Pagan put up -.1 fWAR in 2022, ranking 76 out of 83 relief pitchers to throw 60 innings that season. He was mainly the 7th and 8th inning setup man and was 5th in blown saves. He pitched the third most innings in relief for the Twins. Gotta aim higher than “not the worst”. Jax led the team in relief innings at 72. There’s a slew of relievers, but Sands started to stand out more as the season wore on. Simmons, your starting short stop who accumulated .9 fWAR via a 58 wRC but good fielding, over 129 games at SS ranked 29th SS in MLB. He wasn’t Gleybor Torres ranked 32 in baseball for the Yankees bad, because of course to be 32nd you need a team to have two SS accumulate more WAR. Which team performed that feat? MN Twins! The husk of Polanco ranked 27th in fWAR accumulating 1.0 fWAR in 100 fewer games than Simmons. Need to aim higher than “not the worst”. Joey Gallo played 111 games between 1B and Outfield in 2023 accumulating .8 fWAR ranking 203 out of 283 position players to play 300 innings that year. He sported a 103 wRC+ and a butcher in the field. Larnach, Wallner, Miranda all got the back seat. Bottom third is the best of these three data points, but still need to aim higher than “not the worst”.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    When was the last time this team benched or released a veteran? we just watched Manny Margot play the most games he’s played in a season since 2019 to his worst hitting and fielding performance of his absolute disaster of a career. He hit a 79 wRC+ while sporting -5 OAA. the worst part about these horrible signings is that these guys are going to play a lot.
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    It was consequential when you brought it up, but when the same data sliced differently disputes your narrative it doesn’t? You’re not wrong, it’s 350 plate appearances, or, if the averages hold up, the Twins avoided about 75 sub optimal matchups, but subbed into just as many. the easy cherry to pick here is Manny Margot, he led the team with 30 pinch hit appearances but had 75 plate appearances (also team lead) as a substitute for a .349 OPS. unfortunately the split doesn’t have WPA, it would be helpful to know how much the futility mattered when Manny came to bat as a substitute.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    They didn’t pinch hit 356 times in a 162 game season, on average a pinch hitter got 1.5+ plate appearances. The PH appearances raised the bar a little bit, but the subsequent plate appearances lowered it a lot.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    The Twins led the league in PAs as a sub 356, sporting a .662 OPS ranked 13th, but it netted them an 83 tOPS+ (compared to player’s overall split). Vs as a starter they carried a 101 tOPS+ so the substitute hitters cost 18% production overall. yes, the pinch hit appearance raised the as a starter split tOPS+, but they had 120 PAs more than average of 83 tOPS+
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    To the title of the article, no, the Tigers added the most 2025 projected WAR since November. After reading the article, yes the Twins currently (Feb 6) have the highest 2025 projected WAR.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Per AZ Phil, you are correct
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    Can’t add to the 60 day Il until the season starts. edit to add: I am wrong, it’s when Spring Training Starts
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Are we going to get old school baseball again? Like stealing bases and squeeze plays and players actually putting the ball into play?!
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    To be a pro athlete, especially baseball, where you play pro ball for 4-6 years in the minors and the attrition rate is 95%(?) you HAVE to be an extreme optimist and extremely confident in your abilities. It’s not faith, it’s certainty that you WILL succeed. It’s what got Louie this far, and it’s really hard to change that mindset. edit to add: agreed Varland could be a 3rd/4th monster along with Duran, Jax and Sands (who was a step below Jax/Duran but SO good, top setup man on 10-15 teams, and closer on 4)
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    They hit a ton for all but 6 weeks of the season… if they can put a full season together and tighten up their fielding… I really like our chances
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    I don’t really love WAR either, but it’s convenient! I think having a high number of inherited runners relative to the league would be counter-value. 1) you usually have multiple relievers per game, but only 1 starter. A high strand count would mean your relievers are putting a lot of runners on the bases and not striking them out. 2) a high strand rate without count doesn’t tell you much either. 100% strand rate but only 2 inherited runners isn’t useful. WPA Win Probability Added, and Leverage stats can give you some of that flavor. But they aren’t predictive or comprehensive. The Twins Bullpen ranked 11th in MLB in 2024 by WPA. Again it’s a cumulative stat, so fewer chances, less accumulation. edit to add: The Twins scored the 4th most runs in baseball last year, blowouts don’t accumulate WPA, late and close does. i really like WHIP as a stat I firmly understand and it tells me how well the pitcher took care of business. Fewer base runners per inning pitched is a good thing! Twins bullpen ranked 13 in 2024.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Sands, Stewart and Topa have shown it over the course of a season, Alcala has had stretches, the pen could be very good, but there’s also a ton of risk because all 4 of them are the definition of volatile relievers. boom or bust
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    SWR at 133 innings was 77th in WAR, 77th k-bb%, 74th in WHIP, 68th in ERA. that makes a Rookie a top 80 starting pitcher, and since there’s 30 teams, he would have been an improvement over the existing number 3 pitcher on 10-15 teams (if pitching quality were evenly distributed)
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    Sites such as these don’t have editors, so this stuff happens. The Athletic has many of the same issues and that’s The NY Times fer cryin in da beer….
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    I bet you’re a hoot at parties
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Sure is! The standard of deviation of runs scored per game could tell a very different story than simple sum. “Uneven” matters relative to the other teams. For all I know, the distribution falls right inside the league average or well outside to be an outlier.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Are not! I do not believe you :) from a fan’s perspective, 3 true outcomes is terribly boring to watch, but it’s hard to argue with being the 6th highest scoring team from 2019 through 2024.
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    Living in NW Wi, cable/dish providers picked me up as Brewers area but MLB.tv picked me up as Twins area. I haven’t been able to watch legally for years and I missed it, especially last year when Provus went to TV. i go to 10 games per year, and I’m super excited to pay my $100 per year to watch the Twins on TV!
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Yes
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Lottery tickets are independent outcomes. 2 top 100 prospects are more valuable as currency, but they are still independent in their odds of success. the ROI we should be measuring is not Jose Berrios, that trade was player for prospects. is 2 top 100 prospects commensurate? Seems so as you hold the outcomes of what happened after the trade in somewhat low regard. Rather, the ROI should be measured on the minor league coaching and training apparatus. Does the coaching machine work better than its peers? Are there subsets more efficient at producing higher quality outcomes than others?
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Top prospects become competent major leaguers at something like 25-50%. https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects SWR was 86th in 2021, I wasn’t able to find Austin Martin in the top 100. SWR had a 17% chance of being “successful” not even “excellent”. Realistically they weren’t going to trade 1.5 years of Berrios for guaranteed 6 years of Berrios. It’s a chance at 6 years of Berrios.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, Falvey needs to make a move or two, or the offseason is a failure. Even if it is a failure, this team can be competitive. The scores the 4th most runs in the AL last year. 5th most runs in AL ‘23. Is that not competitive? I will always prefer competitive to rebuild. Rebuilds suck!
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