Richie the Rally Goat

Agreed, and #1 on the list, health, could repeat the injuries that have repeated themselves several times. You’re injury prone until you’re not and it can change in a heartbeat, just like G-Cinco, but it can repeat too.

That and blind luck

I’ve been asking Brock for a sarc font for years

Doug, been out of baseball since 2019 and as a manager physically fought on the field with players. Even the Tigers fired him. Fire Baldelli, or not. Personally I think whoever replaces Baldelli will be his clone until Falvine are gone. i never, ever want to see Dougie Baseball in a Twins Uni again

FIP is the best stat to predict future ERA. FIP predicts ERA better than ERA does. Ober career FIP 3.94, 2022 2.92. Paddack 3.94/1.72 Ryan 3,90/3.99 Mahle 4.28/3.87 Flexen 4.64/4.49 Taillon 3.8/3.94 Walker 4.19/3.65 so I’d Make it Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Paddack, Taillon 6, Walker 7, Winder, SWR, Flexen 10.

He effectively hasn’t pitched since 2019. If they don’t have to give up much to get him, it seems like an interesting flier, but I gotta think he’s more valuable to the Red Sox who are hurting for pitching bad.

100% agreed they'll use 10+ starting pitchers in 2023. #8,9,10,11 should have a couple starts each. #6 and 7 should get 8-10 starts each. We see things differently too, which makes this a fun discussion. I see Mahle as durable prior to last year, Gray and Ryan getting a bit more run than last year with 2022 being healthier (and more innings, than years prior). Those 3 are among the best 2,3,4 starts in MLB (unfortunately they're 123, alas) and if they can get/remain healthy there's a good likelihood of pitching 550 to 570 innings. Still need to pitch 1500 innings, Maeda, Ober might only be 250 of those innings, Varland (6) pitched really well last year, and SWR (7) and Winder (8) both look ready. There's depth and innings there, that I'm not worried about 2024 if they can extend Mahle or Gray. I agree that Gray might not want to sign an extension, he has expressed his frustration with his handling, but he also had one of his best years in a while last year and maybe stepping back away from the competitive grind might see things in as new light.

you’re right, Hope is not a plan. Eovaldi’s health - question mark, and if you don’t turn your 5th spot over to Ober/SWR/Varland, you don’t test your pipeline enough to know if it’s ready. You are correct, hope is not a plan. Signing Eovaldi and hoping your untested pipeline comes through, and hoping Eovsldi stays healthy, and hoping he pitches better than he’s pitched in the past is no plan. they needed to sign a big time free agent to improve the front, but didn’t. Now they need to test the pipeline. Ober is a Ml 3/4 pitcher. Varland and SWR need to be tested.

No one, clearly. I’m all for spending money, but if it doesn’t actually improve the team, I don’t care. they dithered on Correa while all the players they should have signed went elsewhere. It’s been too late since November

This! He’s a 3.9 to 4 ERA pitcher, Gray, Ryan, Mahle are all better, Maeda when healthy is better. So 17 mil a year to compete with Ober, Paddack, and Maeda for 4th/5th starter and might end up 6th. He had all the injury concerns of the rest of the rotation and none of the upside as ground ball pitchers w/ Farmer at SS makes me cringe

The “holy cow” still stands. I can’t see this FO spending what it takes to get an impact reliever in free agency.

I don’t think Arraez and Kepler plus PTNBL gets you Devers, and I wonder why Boston would want Kepler. The Correa idea might be what happens w/ the Mets, but it seems the train has sailed w/ the Twins. I like your thought process though

“At the end of the day, The AL central is wide open. The Guardians and White sox haven't taken massive steps forward and are still easily within reach of the Twins. If we avoid being battered by injuries like last year, this team could win 90 games and be right in the playoff mix.” this is true, but outside of Mahle, all of the players that were a contribution to the “battered” impression were players that had extensive injuries prior and are still on the team. I don’t understand how one can make assumptions of better health and improved record, with a roster that is thus far, worse and lots of injury questions still. 81 wins projected by fangraphs seems optimistic with the balanced schedule upcoming.

Good questions! This team has felt in limbo for quite some time.

Like The Farming Game

I disagree with the premise that paying a free agent 10+ years is stupid. It costs the total contract. MLB player contracts are fully guaranteed and incentives are limited to games played, can’t be based on outcomes in the games, so for all intents and purposes, the total dollars and how to work out when the payments happen. when you are specifically looking at the “when” part, the years, ignore the length of the player contract and just look at how the team pays the bills. Lights, facilities, what have you. That sell 2 million tickets at an average $54 per person is 108m plus TV contract, probably a bit more than that. Call it $250m to $300m in revenue including advertising revenue as a guess. Operating costs are the first thing that comes out of revenue, not sure what that is, but with a hundred plus employees of $50k per year salaries, it’s at least 15 mil per year the Twins (or the Mets) clearly can’t pay a full $300m contract on day one. $315 mil is what Carlos Correa costs. If the market couldn’t bear the $315m, the prices couldn’t sustain the growth. Teams can however pay that salary over time. Now looking at the career of a baseball player. Verlanders are extremely rare. Most players reach free agency around 29 to 30, and play until 35. 6 years at 315 mil Would be 63m per year, still difficult to pay considering revenue. The team still had to pay other players too. 10+ years, bringing that salary to 25-28m per year, most teams sell half their tickets as season tickets and can flow that cash in season, basically selling it before they pay for it. Whether or not the player will play for 10 years is irrelevant.

Jerry Bell has been retired since 2002. Dave StPeter is the president who stuck his foot in his mouth.

It’s also why free agency is what it is, right? supply vs demand. If aces grew on trees, 40 year old Justin Verlander wouldn’t get a 2 year 80m contract

I loved Puckett as a child. Now all my Puckett memorabilia is gone (including autographs), replaced by Hrbek. I’m sad every time I walk past that statue and it turns me off of going to Target Field. We can acknowledge his excellent play on the field without putting him on a literal pedestal as a misguided hero. I can tolerate a lot of things, but will not abide in abusive people. I will not ever watch a Twins game if they sign Bauer. If they do, I’ll root for the Brewers, and you’ll find me at brewerfanatic instead.

Well done Stu!

A Nick Gordian knot? I’ve heard of athletes having sneaker deals, but knot deals too?

In 2022, the youngest team was Cleveland at 26.42 years average, the oldest was NYM at 30.68. The Mets got older keeping the team largely intact and signing Verlander. The Twins in 2022 were 28.42 falling in the middle third. With only a partial roster shown, the Twins would be somewhere in the 26.3 to 26.5 YO range depending on how they filled out the 26 man and which fill-Ins came from STP. Considering everyone ages a year… that’s quite the significant shift, from middle third to likely the youngest or second youngest team in the MLB.

bright lights of Houston huh? Annually yes he’s making less, but tax-wise it’s 1% difference between NY and MN and total contract is 10% higher. Correa nets 8.5 to 9% more in NY aggregate. Also, to your point of not just about the money, Mets won 101 games last year, and signed Verlander and Nimmo. Good chance of winning a WS as a Met, Twins? Much lower