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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    Depends on what they get, and what they do with it. if it’s a crap-load of lotto tickets and we just wait 5 years for them all to wash out… yuck, no thanks! if some of that crap-load of lotto tickets gets flipped for Chris Bassit and Sean Manaea, I’m ok with it.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    Mod note: knock off the semantic revenue argument. While ability to pay is relevant, please bring evidence or drop it. This line of debate is going nowhere
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    With superstars like Shohei Ohtani & Cody Bellinger playing multiple positions. We think back fondly to LNP and Cesar Tovar, and now get to watch Arraez and Tortuga. It does enhance the game when players just play. I like the Craig Counsell "out-getter" concept.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    And you can get by with a 14 man pitching staff if you have fewer fielding specialists and no full time DH. So instead of having a team full of Starters, Relievers, closers, First Basemen, DHs, etc.. .You have "Pitchers" and "Hitters"?
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    You could say the same for Lynn, as Perez. The Twins saw something and they were right, just early (presumably because of the no spring training). Lynn has been very god for the Rangers White Sox 2019, 7.5 bWAR, 2020 2.1 bWAR and 2021 5.4 bWAR.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    This is a great response! I’m ready for some experiments, but really respect and appreciate that you aren’t and spoke of it in those terms.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Not that I “want” the FO to blow it up, but that does seem like a logical direction to take. I tried to put my thoughts to spreadsheet but struggled to get my head wrapped around it. I haven’t reviewed all of the blueprints out there, but the ones I did either met, or exceeded the budget. Did anyone work that scenario out? How did it look?
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    Lewis certainly has the maturity, work ethic, intelligence and physical tools to become an MLB superstar, over a long enough time horizon. He hasn’t hit a ball in two years, and has 150 plate appearances in AA. learning and development are rarely linear. He’s bound to hit more speed bumps before he makes his Ml debut, and will again hit speed bumps as a rookie. Lewis needs to be protected for Rule 5 this December and will be added to the 40 man Nov 19, 2021 2022 will be a bit of a restart for Lewis, he probably won’t start up at AA, and may struggle in his first return to action. After 2023 he needs to be called up or he becomes a free agent. Would his age and contract status prevent a minor league demotion in 2023/24? Could he get stuck on the bench rather than get an opportunity to work through some mechanics against lesser opponents?
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    Good process! Potentially accurate results that would make me very sad. It’ll soften the blow when reality sets-in this spring and opening day payroll is 15% lower than ‘21
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Great first post! Welcome to TD!
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Indeed, the rate is significantly different, in Garver’s more capable bat. Magnitude, however softens the delta as it’s not a 162 games of difference. It’s at most 80 games of Garver. Jeffers and Rortvedt are catching at least half the ‘22 season no matter what.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    This was a fun scenario! I imagine a ton of potential heartburn as the disjointed transactions would flow over weeks of time.
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    He’s a great catcher and elite hitter (for a catcher) but as others have pointed out, time is not on Garver’s side. If you can swing a good starting pitcher for him, do it. Jeffers and Rortvedt will be a step down, but he and Buxton are the only ML assets that will legitimately bring back value, and the step down from Buxton to Celestino (or who ever) is much greater than Garver to Jeffers. while depth at catcher is great, it’s a luxury the Twins cannot afford
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Great for Eddie! I hate to be “that guy”…. But I’m going to be regardless…. Context required the Twins didn’t DFA Rosario, they non-tendered him. Cleveland didn’t claim him on waivers, they signed him as a street free agent
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    I didn’t think of the buyout in terms of the Guaranteed 2022 money, but you are right. 9.25 mil is a bargain, 12 mil is probably what you’d expect to pay, and the 14 due to Sano for 23 doesn’t look very good right now. there might be a lot of players in the NL that can fill the DH role, but are there a ton of Miguel Sano’s on benches of other teams? According to fangraphs his career wRC+ is 118, so above average, maybe solidly above average. I can’t imagine there are 5-10 118 wRC+ hitters on benches across the MLB…
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    I had the Twins moving on from Sano in my off-season plan too. Universal DH seems to be a likelihood in the new CBA which increases the value Sano’s affordable 9.2 mil contract could return in trade.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    three items 1) well written 2) lots of fun on a goofy story 3) It wasn’t a story about Eddie Rosario Excellent work!
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    There’s a metric for everything https://worldhappiness.report
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think the Twins will not have a full time DH, Donaldson, Arraez and Rooker will all have significant DH time
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    In this scenario the new CBA adopts universal DH. Because of the higher demand for DH, Cruz out price’s the Twins budget. This also makes Sano’s 9 mil and some change contract valuable in trade. Twins trade Sano and his full salary to an NL team for prospects. 130 is a hard budget, no wiggle, including prospects called up and mid-season trades. 2020 and 2021 were challenging for cash flow with much fewer in-person attendees at Target Field. There’s only 1.7 available, it’ll be snug. If something goes really right, they may not be able to swing a trade for a higher end reliever at the deadline. Buxton is extended at 10 mil per season, I pulled that from the salary AAV from reports. Honestly I’m not sure how the escalators work, I may not have enough budget for bonuses, but we’ll pretend there’s a separate budget line for that. Pineda signed two years 16 mil. He hasn’t been healthy at all, but has been effective. I think that calls for a discount, and Jax/Dobnak/et al, can fill in the gaps. im not exactly thrilled with the lineup, but this team is so starved for pitching I had to cheap out on SS. There’ll be some continued growing pains with Larnach and Kirilloff in the every day lineup, with Celestino and Gordon playing frequently as well. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQeRoMg6FEz3LDRWteFLPY7Wkk32DtRgehe_12K5hShNKk9gyVMpJ0TxKgE9tQl4Vlbrh4pN8Hpy_Sv/pubhtml
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Eddie Rosario, in left field for the expansion Las Vegas Gamblers in 2067, scrambling with his walker to a roller down the line…. Over throws the cutoff man and manages to gun down a potential inside the park home run… Immediately dies of a heart attack as he lets the ball go with a smile on his face. in spring training 2068 the Gamblers plant his urn in the left center lawn
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Loved Cruz while he was here, but every nickel of budget and every millisecond of effort by the FO should be spent on pitching and maybe SS. If right before ST there’s some budget left and they filled all the other needs and Cruz is still out there, sign him up.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Gordon had a few stretches batting that tantalized among long stretches of futility and didn’t field well enough. I’d think he earned enough to not get DFA’d until the spring and compete to be a super-utility player, but not enough that I’d be willing to consider him in a starting role in ‘22. He would not be a 26 man lock for me at this point.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    The 40 is still rather full, managing a crisp fielding team was a challenge in 2021, there's a bunch of players on the cusp needing rule 5 protection, and the Twins need to add like 3 starting pitchers. There will be several (5 or 6 maybe?) more players coming off the 40 man to protect Rule 5 prospects and make room for free agents of which 3-4 should be pitchers. On the DH question, would a 40 man move that included trading away/removing one of the glut of bat first players like Sano and/or Rooker be a leading indicator? What might that tell us about plans going forward?
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