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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    Perspective in data is a wonderful thing. I see the difference between Vázquez and Jeffers, 5-7 pts wRC+ and both in the second quartile as relatively similar hitters inside the margin of error. why do you see Jeffers as a disappointing hitter?
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    The Twins play a 60/40 or 50/50 catcher. I see no reason why they stop that. Including if Jeffers or Vázquez goes down. My concern at that point is Dave Banuelos getting 40% of the at bats.
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    catchers who are great hitters and great fielders are exceedingly rare. You almost always get a catcher (with no stick) or a DH wearing tons of pads. I feel much better about C this year than last year. Everyone has a hole at C (or a DH behind the dish). Vázquez (84 career/99 last year ranked #18 at 200 plate appearances) has historically been just below league average hitter by wRC+, Jeffers (89/87/#29) just below league average as well. Both are good fielding catchers Jeffers #19 in baseball savant framing outs, Vázquez #23, catcher blocking Vázquez was number 15, Jeffers not so good 51. if your expecting Prime Joe Mauer and Pudge Rodriguez, you’ll be sorely disappointed, but then there’s only been a handful of catchers to ever play like those two did and you’ll be disappointed for a loooong time.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    That was awesome! I like the comparison of payroll to asset portfolio. I think of it as capital expenditure in a factory which is a similar investment strategy to stock asset portfolio, but your factory works together more directly. Sometimes you invest to replace a factory asset because it’s out of capacity and you need an asset that can hit more home runs. Sometimes you replace an asset that is nearing end of life and has extended breakdowns. the quote pulled for the article made the Twins use of OOTP more about scenario planning, than team building.
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    this is fun. quote: “I think it’s a useful tool, first and foremost, to get to know the roster,” Kapler said recently. “At that point, it gave us a sneak-preview of how we would use the roster as a coaching staff and how we viewed the roster as individuals, and it prompted discussion around some late-game, in-game strategy.” Rocco Baldelli’s Minnesota Twins did the same thing at the outset of the pandemic. The coaching staff got information sheets together just like they were in the dugout and worked through simulated games. “It’s more real than unreal, I’ll tell you that,” Baldelli said in 2020. “It’s very realistic the way that things come up. It’s one thing to have a discussion and look at information on a page and try to get into it, but it’s another thing when you’re watching it unfold in front of your eyes … And talking through it, just as you would in the dugout, that’s gold.” https://theathletic.com/4339875/2023/03/24/out-of-the-park-baseball-24/ good article about the programmer developing the game, and how it gets used.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    THIS! If Forbes is accurate, it’s as much an indicator of past on the field product as it is the current year, if not more. Winning begets winning
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    That was my guess too Runs might be scarce for a while
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    That and last year’s record is the best predictor of ticket sales.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    The Pohlads own Go 96.3 and B96 radio stations, quit their contract with AM1500 to air the Twins radio broadcasts on their own radio station which then brought in premium advertising revenue. That advertising revenue would not have been on the Twins’ books. I have no idea how much, but that was something that happened until they closed down the station. The Pohlads also owned Victory Sports One Network and aired Twins games there and received Ad revenue and cable network fees as a result. they owned a share of FSN (which was born out of the victory sports stuff) which may have brought them some ad revenue, I’m not sure how a minor ownership stake works in that case. It is unclear, but I wonder if they still own the minor stake in BSN today. I can’t find a reference. the Pohlads own dozens of companies, some of which do advertising and media, like Bring Me The News. Pohlad companies are a privately held, so they don’t have to publicly report earnings, so it’s hard to know where all their earnings come from, but they have in the past earned monetarily from the team. It makes sense to assume they continue to.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    100%! case in point, the Green Bay Packers as a publicly held team, with public financials were one of the more cash poor (I know…) NFL franchises. Then they bought up all the houses and retail around Lambeau and built up the Title Town district and the Atrium which turned things around quite a bit (along with less Covid angst). this is the conundrum with the analysis. You have to scope the analysis to the question. But the impact to the owners (any owner, not just the Pohlads) is intertwined with many holdings. It’s beyond the scope of the question, but it’s not the reason the owner continues to own the team. why do we care if the Twins turn a profit for the Pohlads? For me, because if it ceases to be profitable they might sell or slash payroll. The devil I know is better than the devil I don’t. how do I know the Twins turn a profit for the Pohlads? I don’t.
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, to an extent, that Forbes isn’t an objective source. Forbes is designed to make celebrities out of rich people. Forbes’ estimates are designed to make billionaires look as human and normal as possible while still flaunting their fabulous wealth. The Pohlads or their proxies may have even helped craft the message. one of the other questions I have, beyond the validity of the estimates. Is what other Pohlad entities besides the Twins benefit in what ways because of the Twins? even if the Twins themselves aren’t profitable or as profitable as the Pohlads would have historically liked them to be, how much revenue does the team drive to other ventures? as hard as the op is to actually answer, it’s even harder when you consider the Pohlads own media and advertising firms, at one point they owned a stake in FSN that could still be the case w/ BSN. The benefits and costs go beyond the game on the field, and without GAAP audit, we’ll never really know. so taking this with a huge grain of salt. Fun read, not news.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, but if you go too far with this strategy, you become the AAA farm team for the Yankees again. Trading Thielbar would return very little, keeping Thielbar costs very little. Why reduce the effectiveness of the pen in 2023 for very little return?
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    It’s one thing to try this in spring training, entirely another in a game that matters. how long until we see this in the regular season? How long until the Twins try it? In-season? How many times will we see it in season?
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    Awesome to see Royce hungry to get on the field but understanding and trusting in the process. Speaks well to Royce and also the FO in effective communication. Great Article Ted and great candor from Royce!
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Better Call Mama!
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    Half of his stories are cringey too. Yuck, hate Gladden’s color analysis and play by play. Thank God for Provus because audio is my routine while doing chores/work
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    $6 per month with no contract. Sign up in May, cancel in May, it costs $6 (and you can binge Ted Lasso) seems like a win to me.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    I’ll bet the over.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Odds makers use a half so you can’t guess it exactly. The first two guessses were 11 and 10, so set the line at 10.5
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Welcome to TD
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    I 100% agree with this, but don’t think this is AK specific. The MLB 162 game season is a marathon grind. Every major leaguer’s success is determined in significant part by their ability to manage the dings and aches of the season. as evidenced by the FO’s moves this off-season, depth is critical for a strong season and post season.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Scotch and Kool-Aid is an “interesting” combination
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    In my house it was lime. I remember being very upset with my aunt when babysitting me used the green stained wooden spoon to make soup because I was afraid the soup would take the kool-aid stain off
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think Advertisers have figured out how to internet, I think they can figure out how to game thread too. It’s not rocket surgery
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    Similarly, I’d like to see a stat-centric feed. You could even use the same televised crew and ads, just add the stats on a side pane or MTV Popup video style. Have you watched the Apple Friday Night games? The crew doesn’t quite have the charisma of the Mannings, it’s a conversational tone with a group of baseball fans and there’s more stats. I really like it, but it needs a better production team and for the crew to be in the same room.
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