Richie the Rally Goat

this buyer/seller market, not an extended value stream. Agreed, the Blake Snell rant was not a good look, but the negotiation is between the MLB and MLBPA. Any bets on listed ticket prices for whenever the games are played with spectators? Price going down? Not likely Everyone protects their price, including me. I’m not accepting a wage cut either (not that they’ve asked).

Honest pay for honest work, be it owner, player, or beer vendor is fine by me. I have no problem with the negotiation. I just think that the players have a contract and a contract is a contract. I struggle with the macro economic theory being thrown around, when we’re really talking about a market. The scale is off, especially when mixing in market definition of loss... My points of opportunity cost is just my way of putting the players perspective out there, and it seems like none of us want to tread on the little guy, but I digress, we’ve had a bit of a misdirected analogy. If I think of my own manufacturing organization, it is currently trying to reduce overhead cost, improve cash flow and reduce cost of goods sold. Parts of the business cater to industrial firms that are reeling, parts of the business cater to pharma and business is booming. Much like the MLB, Pharma (the Yankees) doesn’t cover all of the gap of industrial (the marlins) so, shrink and grow, yay! Overhead in our scenario would be the same in my factory, management furloughs. Twins have said they are paying the FO through June, so overhead isn’t a concern here. With the “factory” a publicly funded stadium still not a big cost when the lights are turned off. As you are keenly aware in a factory, improving cash flow and reducing COGS at the same time is a difficult proposition as lot sizes and RM costs are the main drivers. Cancelling purchase orders can improve cash flow, but resulting inventory shortages makes it difficult to deliver on time to collect on invoices and makes for smaller lots, driving up COGs. Players are the inventory. Vendors (MLBPA) don’t like to deliver when you cancel POs and the PO does include price and quantity (contract value and years). Vendors frequently cut off their nose to spite their face, if only to maintain price over time.

seems to fit pretty well from my perspective:)

the players did take an opportunity cost “loss”. They earned less than minimum wage for 6 years as minor leaguers, many leave MiLB in debt because the wages don’t cover the cost of training and travel in the offseason, let alone cost of living. If they had gotten a job at Home Depot, it would have been banked income over those 6 years, and they would have been able to negotiate higher wages with other employers over that time as well. What percentage of minor leaguers make it to the bigs? Maybe 5-10%. It’s a real cost/benefit calculation.

agreed that the phrase is a sound bite. Make no mistake, the CBA negotiation has begun. However the concept of risk/reward is legitimate here. Ownership has previously earned a profit based on accepting risk as an investment, now finding the risk greater than ownership is willing to accept has tried to spread that risk among the players. The players already had made their own risk/reward decision by accepting a minor league salary at the reward for a major league one. Being this is new risk (business failure)for the players shouldn’t they ask for a cut of the profit? In a free market I forgo job security but get to negotiate with competitive employers to increase my earnings. In this case, players have only one league. Negotiation of free agent contracts is basically just back pay, and the teams are one league competing inside of itself.

this isn’t a free market http://twinsdaily.com/topic/36938-zulgad-is-mlb-really-making-return-about-dollars-and-cents/?p=965912

The concept of risk/reward has come up a few times, and the looming CBA means maybe revenue sharing with the players is on the table for 21. If the players assume more risk, they’re going to want commensurate reward to go with it. Otherwise contracts won’t be “guaranteed”.

good for you! But I am perplexed.... they back out of buying 4 LATAM A350s, but are still in on the JV even w/ LATAM filing for bankruptcy and buying 10 future, while shrinking their own fleet ... and it raises 13.5% today? Is Delta taking over LATAM?

ive been hoarding cash too. I’m on the fence of the markets aren’t reflecting the economy but at some point will.

An 82 game season may end up being no off days and double headers where a 6-7 man rotation is all but required for some stretches. No such thing as too much pitching, even in a short season. Abbreviated Spring Training might have an impact on being stretched out on opening day too.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on 60 minutes. Lots of mixed messages, just like the stock markets https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/coronavirus-economy-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-chairman-60-minutes/?__twitter_impression=true#app

Can you site the exclusive charter flights? Minor leaguers certainly fly commercial. Regardless of carrier, they fly in and out airports, correct? Go through security and such?

Green Bay in January is magical and glorious! There are few experiences like it, and even Viking fans should experience it. That being said, I think a neutral site WS is the only way to keep the players safe. Air travel is so dangerous, it must be mitigated every step of a season and post season.

Great Article Patrick!

I have a friend who trades for CHS, and I used to buy vegetables on contracts, and i can tell you that it depends on what your intention is on the trades. I used to trade for low prices to actually take delivery as a supplement to my contracts. My friend at CHS does the same. Oh, and 20 million barrels of oil are anchored off the coast of California right now. There’s opportunities if you have the resources. https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-21/oil-tankers-are-surrounding-california-with-nowhere-to-unload?sref=vuYGislZ&__twitter_impression=true

I wonder if you could buy one used on Craigslist?

it’s futures contracts, meaning a refiner purchased that oil for future delivery, that you have to take delivery of on the day it comes due. It’s already out of the ground and has to go somewhere. You can sell that futures contract to somebody else, but when nobody has anywhere to store it... you pay someone to take it. And June and July futures are still in the $20 range. I don’t think it’ll hurt that bad. I just wish i had a spare oil tanker lying around that I could sit on that for a few months and make a bajillion dollars on.::

I think there's some logic getting lost in the algorithms, additional to glunn's post, the big institutional investors are buying/or selling, just to stay ahead of each other, not to hold an investment as a growth opportunity. Behind every Algo is a human, but time is a great equalizer in that kind of trading. That's part of the difficulty in trying to find the bottom - there may be multiple dead cat bounces (there frequently are) but these feel more pronounced than '08 or '02 partially because of the Algos seem to feed off of each other, just like my favorite clip from the big short regarding the hot hand fallacy.

I'm 5 episodes into Counterpart on Prime (I believe also Stars). I really enjoy it so far, JK Simmons is awesome!

good luck Mike, and good advice. Flexibility is key for all of us, including Rocco

“1 or 2” top pitchers? How about part of a top pitcher? This has been beaten to death already, but top pitchers don’t just grow on trees. It’s easier said than done, to sign one of these unicorns. I think the FO would rather have signed a top pitcher too.

agreed with Glunn. It’s pretty safe to say, depending on investment horizon, you’ll pay higher income taxes closer to retirement than you pay right now, so might as well bite the bullet. If your employer offers a Roth 401k, you could make your contributions monthly after taxes on your paycheck. My employer includes the Roth on match funds too, so you could replace your pre tax 401k with the after tax variety, to an extent. Unfortunately the Roth contribution limits are lower than pretax.

It might be time for a second TV

MMM opened today at 129.86 did your put option vest (or whatever it’s called)?

With the Fed rate cut, it appears with all three major futures indices down to the limit (4.5-4.8%) that the market agrees with you. The uptick was probably just the algorithms...