Richie the Rally Goat
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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat
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per play, sure.... increased endurance can improve performance via improved ability to practice over longer periods more frequently. I’m with you though, cheating increases WPA immensely -
Make the trade as soon as the opportunity develops. Timing is rarely perfect, and waiting for the trade deadline for a strategic motive is a high risk low reward type of move. The rotation as currently setup is a recipe to blow out the bullpen and make another quick exit in the post season. Berrios is very good 2, good 1 Odorizzi is a good 2, very good 3 Pineda is out the first 39 games and then has to get up to speed. Lots of risk, hard to judge... could be their best starter down the stretch. Hill is just as likely not to pitch as pitch 75 innings Homer Bailey is a fine to be in the mix for 5th starter with Dobnak and Smeltzer but I hope he’s in the bullpen. The Twins desperately need a starter to slot in the top 3 right now. Injuries and ineffectiveness will sort out any perceived over abundance of pitching.
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you are correct, the Twins do need starts for development purposes. Pineda is out 39 games, Rich Hill is just as likely to throw zero innings as 75. Even if the Twins do add a starter, one of Graterol, Dobnak, et al, will be the 5th starter all season and Pineda provides another 7 or so starts. There’s 32-37 starts already and someone will get hurt... You don’t need to worry about putting Bailey in the pen to get those young guys starts. God willing, Dobnak or Thorpe pushes Bailey to the pen!
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- randy dobnak
- lewis thorpe
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right, every team wants to add another quality proven young starter. That’s why the free agent market for Cole was 9 years 324 mil.... Now that trade is the only option, it’s going to cost significant trade assets to out bid other teams. The cost of poor forecasting....
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agreed, tons of back end depth for 20, but very thin at the top of the rotation. Injuries will happen and having all that depth for starters 4-10 is great! It raises the floor. Having a solid chance win the 5th game as opposed to an automatic L is how you win the regular season. Need to add a starter to the 1-3 range (preferably 1, but understand the difficulty/cost) to raise the ceiling. Having a 3rd high-end starter is how you win in the post season.
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- randy dobnak
- lewis thorpe
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when the FO trades for a front of the rotation type starter you’ll be way low
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The word that comes to mind: “bludgeon” The other one is WOO!
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I agree with this almost entirely except to add a “yes, but” It is possible to offer a lower total contract at more attractive terms. If for instance Donaldson’s offer from the Nats was 4 years 100M but half of the contract is deferred out over 12 years, while the Twins offer of 4 years 90 all during the 4 years, the Twins would be the better deal by time value of money. But yeah, it still needs to be a better deal for the player.
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Others have brought this up, and I’ve finally come around to it. If not Donaldson, I’d rather the Twins get a SS and move Polanco to 3B.
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- kris bryant
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I think this is an over-simplification. The World Series isn’t won in the offseason, and why I think this offseason is a failure has more to do with goals. I do not want the FO to mortgage the future, but do want the FO to acquire a significant difference maker on the fielding side and the pitching side. Free agency when it is targeted and well timed, holds on to cheap future assets. Success rates of prospects are low, it takes a lot of them to develop just a few. They can still make moves that make a significant impact on 2020 (and beyond) but not without giving up assets for future success. There’s nothing wrong with what they’ve done, it just isn’t (and can’t be) successful, unless they somehow swindle another team in a trade. That doesn’t happen... As to “how much is too much?” Cole wasn’t gonna happen and that banana-pants money would have crippled the Twins. I’m glad they didn’t do it. But what Wheeler or Ryu got or even more would have been no real hardship.
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Front Page: Twins and 2020 Arbitration
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
it’s certainly possible, and I hope they do... but how did you determine odds here? Why are you so confident? -
Falvey clearly didn’t make decisions 10 years ago and can’t time travel, but this offseason was his to make. Sustainability is not a reason to miss on free agents. In current state, free agents are all but done in ways that can meaningfully improve the team. Going forward, trades are the option left, and that hurts the sustainability of the team. So if sustainability is the goal you can’t still meaningfully improve the team.
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Front Page: Twins and 2020 Arbitration
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Twins go to Arb w/ Berrios over $375k. Fascinating....- 80 replies
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- jose berrios
- eddie rosario
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this exactly why so many of us are upset at the offseason-to-date “failure”...The Twins are on their way down the red carpet in a Canadian Tuxedo because they’re too cheap buy a Black one. The Twins could have made a black tuxedo starting 7-10 years ago, but that train has sailed.
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Kepler’s home runs per fly ball increased in part because he started pulling the ball more. Prior to 2019 he pulled fly balls 24% to 33%. In 2019 he pulled fly balls 41% of the time. Kepler’s average home run distance in 2019 was 392 feet. The right field fence is 328 feet. Even if he lost 5% of the distance traveled with a non-juiced ball 372 feet is plenty if he keeps pulling the ball 41%. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/splits-tool?position=OF&splitArr=12&strgroup=season&statgroup=3&startDate=all&endDate=all&filter=&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&sort=NaN,1 https://www.mlb.com/player/max-kepler-596146 I’m not convinced Kepler will be as heavily impacted as the OP states.
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hmmm math might disagree with you...
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assuming Donaldson goes elsewhere, the top free agents are off the board. What should the FO do next?
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mod note: Not only to the quoted poster, but the several other posters fighting the same tired old argument. Keep to OP. This thread is not about “why not the Twins” or “How much is too much” It’s about what to do next. Please discuss plans on what to do next.
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None of the free agent infielders are very appealing. Moreland or Thames seem to be the best bets, but .830 OPS.... not a huge upgrade over what you might get out of Rooker, just more reliable. From here on out, I’d look to swing a trade for a 3B and SP and plan on internal options as fallback options. Edit to add: could get creative and look at Rosario at 1b as well.
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Great article Nick! My feelings exactly!
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I think the last couple soft markets were telling us something, we (and maybe Falvine too) were just wrong in interpretation. Market corrections come in many different forms. It may be that several organizations had too much non-working inventory. Teams are looking to turn their inventory faster, or reprioritize different types of inventory
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We as fans don’t have the tools to expand the definition of assets beyond free agent spending. A number of posters quote trade analyzer websites and many posters disregard those sites as hogwash. I agree with your concept that this FO values liquidity very highly and for good reason. What’s not clear to me is the liquidity risk model being used. We talk about players as assets, but maybe better to be thought of as inventory. Turns as speed to commercialize inventory might be a metric/framework.
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This is a really good, well laid out post. Have you blogged this to flesh it out more? At face value I feel like there’s a feasibility argument to be made, but maybe there’s some research to fill in some blanks
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Individually these signings are “fine”. Add up everything and it’s all “fine”. I was just expecting more. There’s still time, but it really does look like it this is what we can expect.
