Richie the Rally Goat

Names or it didn’t happen also Jeffers in there twice

Isn’t the catcher Willson Contreras?

What did you give up for Jansen and Roberts?

Absolutely!

2022 was Swanson’s final arbitration year. By outs above average Swanson is the best fielding SS by a VAST margin. 20 outs above average puts him in the 100th percentile of all fielders across the MLB. with a 115 OPS+. Going into his age 29 season Swanson will get PAID! Backup the Brinks Truck! At least 7 years $200M

The point here, take out the label “starting” let your pitchers go as long as they are effective. All of your pitchers should pitch to the extent of their effectiveness, not adhere to some arbitrary label. it is common sense, if all of your pitchers, pitch to the extent of their capability, games go faster, fewer pitching changes, and better pitchers pitching more innings means more wins and fewer innings pitched by bad pitchers. Maybe even carrying fewer pitchers to give the lineup more flexibility? those analytics are ignored because the vast majority of MLB teams adhere to the labels and the expectations that come with them (and the pay incentives).

For those upset that coaches heads didn’t roll this fall, I have one suggestion. It’s a big ask, not everyone can afford it, but if you can, I can guarantee you won’t regret it. Go to spring training in March 2023 I conspicuously notice the people that I see at spring training, most years, aren’t upset that these coaches didn’t get fired. I’ve watched Tommy Watkins work with these players, fairly up close and personal for a few instances, a couple days per year. I’ve missed a couple spring trainings over the last decade, but generally I go. It great! I learn more about baseball in those brief moments, than I ever learned anywhere else, including when I played highschool ball. They do coach fundamentals. Really well! this is two things, one: a pitch to go to spring training, becausd it’s my favorite three or four days of the year. two: it’s an empathy/reality check. Players for the MN Twins get coached by Baldelli and team for a few years, but have been coached by dozens, maybe hundreds of coaches over a decade or more, before they get to the bigs. The Selig ball, where giving it a sharp and discerning stare could knock it out of the park, drove coaching decisions since McGuire, Sosa and Bonds captured the greatest stage in 1998. Baldelli and team can’t undo a decade in one or two spring trainings. we’ve been reading about the minor league affiliates putting more base running tactics into games. While my sample size is small and only my (fairly ignorant) perception, I think the coaching staff is doing the right things. I’m not sure about the FO, but the coaches I feel good about.

Royce had his second ACL surgery in 2 years in June, 2022. He will likely start the season on the 60. not sure what the plan for Larnach is

Lewis blew out his ACL, had surgery June 21, 2022. Planning on starting him 8 months post surgery seems pretty aggressive, especially since that’s his second ACL in 2 years. Cutch in LF makes Josh Willingham look like Usain Bolt. No thanks.

Ober pitched 56 innings this year and his high in a season is 108 in 2021. SWR pitched 112 this year, a 20% increase would be 134 innings. 150 innings would be a 33% increase. Gray pitched 120 this year, he’s shown capability to throw 150 in the past, but that was 2019, and it’s been sporadic prior. Mahle threw 120 this year, 180 last year, agreed you can plan on Mahle throwing 150. Varland threw 152 this year, he threw 108 last year. i’d have a hard time banking on 150 again and not for the full year in MN, but 150 is good target. Ryan threw 150 this year, 120 last year. 150+ is a good target, pretty confident he’ll surpass it. IMO, of those 6, 2 have a 60% chance or better to hit the magic 150 mark. Baldelli, Maki, and the FO MUST optimize their usage of pitchers and stretch more of them longer to share that burden across more pitchers. They have no choice. Failure to get more out of more pitchers means a repeat of ‘22. They can’t delete the rotation and start over. Most of those pitchers will remain and they can realistically sign or trade for 1-2 traditional starting pitchers at most, and will likely acquire 0 or 1.

Agreed, but you still need a plan and a structure to manage the workload, to make sure you can cover all your innings over the horizon. Blank slate you have 13 pitchers all available. pitcher Scherzer throws 8 innings shut out, twins up by 8, put in Pagan to close it out, even he can’t screw that up. scherzer unavailable for 5, pagan needs a day off then Duran throws 4 scoreless innings, starts to get close to his projected innings fatigue point. Baldelli’s got a decision whether to ride with Duran another inning and give him a 4th day off, or shut him down at 4innings with 3 days rest etc… Because Baldelli didn’t expect Duran to go the distance, had Bundy warming to throw another 4+ Bundy felt good and went 5. Game 3, Ober tosses 2 and falls apart right away in the 3rd, Baldelli warms two pitchers, Fulmer and Sonny Gray, puts in Fulmer to put out the fire in the 3rd, puts in Gray in the 4th, who goes the distance. Gray pouts that he’s a “starter” and not a “reliever” in the post game presser. Ober now has an undetermined rest period he’s getting checked out by meds. Fulmer needs a day off, Gray needs 4 days off on 5+ innings pitched. when the manager is managing the rest periods of not just the bullpen, but all 13 pitchers (or maybe 11 of the 13 because Scherzer and Ryan work best on a 4 day rest but the other 11 don’t show the same results) then some of the pitchers capable of going longer might be stopped short just to keep them available in 2 days because you wore out your horses and don’t have anyone available for game 5. if you don’t have some parameters and structure you’ll paint yourself in a corner with “bullpen games” in the old school sense where you have to trot out a bunch of Pagans in a row and just get bludgeoned.

I like the idea of Duran starting. I toyed with this idea, but as @Riverbrianpointed out I was too stuck on labels when I filled my roster out and couldn’t justify the plausibility of Duran going from 60 innings to 120+. whatever label you give him, he needs to pitch more than 60 innings next year

Me too!

Poor Louis, he’s working for free

Why? what drives attendance today? what about this setup would reduce attendance? Reduced star power in the rotation? Does Sonny Gray bring in tons of ticket sales? in 2022 length of game reduced my attendance. With 5+ pitchers used over 4 hours…. Brutal…. knock that down to 2 or 3 pitchers per game again. Like the good old days so many people wax nostalgically for, only 5 and 4 innings instead of 8 and 1. im totally behind the “out getters” phrase used by Counsell

Is it “official”? I thought it was after the World Series?

I believe Ober does have options left, however his career high innings pitched in a season was 2021 at 108 innings. I believe he will never get you the 150 innings per season to be a good mlb starter. agreed on your concern about the ‘24 rotation. SWR, Winder, Paddack (assume he starts season on 60 day) and Varland will all be important reserves in 23 and need to step up in 24.

Elvis Andrus would be willing to take a short contract to backfill Royce in ‘23. i couldn’t stand seeing Kyle Garlick in the lineup anymore, so Pinder seemed like a relatively better option for a similar role. Christian Vazquez is the backup C because I’m too lazy to re-type out who’s in what role. Prolly a 50/50 time share anyways. the big acquisition is Carlos Rodon, not sure 25/year does it this go around…. Re-signed Fulmer Ober to the pen getting converted to short/middle relief Winder is the swing man. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Elvis Andrus ($12.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Chad Pinder ($2.0M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Christian Vázquez ($5.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Carlos Rodon ($25.0M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Bailey Ober ($0.7M) RP: Michael Fulmer ($5.0M) RP: Josh Winder ($0.7M) Payroll is 8.79% under budget

T&R, I liked your thoughts and suggestions. The dollars seem pretty realistic. really creative moves that did a good job filling the holes. no way they happen, but I hope they do

That’s it? I think Lewis playing SS 8 months after ACL surgery seems like the most likely of the transactions listed. I liked all of the concepts, but don’t see them happening

Hopefully Correa re-signs

To aid: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2022-23-free-agents-by-position

The willingness/probability of something like this to actually happen depends on if you saw the Donaldson trade as a planned and causal move specifically to sign Correa, or if you saw the moves independently and Correa just fell into the Twins’ lap. I think the FO was offloading Donaldson independently and Correa just fell in their lap.

Randball Stu on a Sunday, how did we get so lucky for such hilarity twice in one week?!

I believe I was 80-85. Like many others I was really optimistic mid-season and the slow slide down to the collapse at the end really knocked me for a loop. I too thought pitching was the problem, and I wasn’t wrong, just that the hitting was worse.